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I fail again and again and bite the dust

  • #101
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:40pm Nov 21, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting Pipskateer
Understood, and that is the way to do it. But a system without positive math parameters is a waste of time. Setting the math parameters as a standard during the system selection or building process is like aiming the gun, that's all I'm saying. Expectancy is math that is calculated from specific factors, only two of which you have any control. Most don't even know about expectancy or whether their system's is positive.
I agree with you to a point but there are times that you can over think it. Expected values are nice and even relatively accurate but alas probabilities are just that. Risks are always at play but some are reasonable and some aren't.

'Deadliest Catch' show demonstrates risk/reward which is not dissimilar to trading. The expected values are based on previous experiences. In other words, math often follows the experience and the accumulation of these experiences can and often do develop into a mathematical algorithm.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #102
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:46pm Nov 21, 2011 2:46pm
...and see what happens. Let's see if I can get to 2%.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #103
  • Nov 21, 2011 3:12pm Nov 21, 2011 3:12pm
8 months, thats cool! I read somewhere that 95 % blows within 6 months. You're in the happy and respectable 5% then. You've done it once, sure you'll do it again! good luck with that.
Worst month "above 10%"?? F...in hell! I still have a lot to learn then. Thanks for sharing.

Anyone else? Theory is theory, expectancy, psychology, backtests and all that, but on a real account, how long has your system kept the account in profits?
Quoting Pipskateer
I've been in design and demo stage for a few months now, so I'm not trading live right now. But using a system that has now been proven to have serious flaws, I once had sustained positive profits for eight months in a row. My lowest month was better than 10% and my best was over 60% with no losing months in between. It ultimately crashed and burned, but I was fortunate enough to get more than my initial investment out plus some profits before it tanked. After that, I began system hopping for quite some time...but no more.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #104
  • Nov 21, 2011 3:17pm Nov 21, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting Taigen
Are you telling me if you have a $1000 account, it's crazy to make $20 in one day. Hmmm.
over $1000 account to make $20... no. But the human mind is never happy with $20 are you serious?

remember I didn't say it wasn't possible... I did say that it's not sustainable... which in clear terms means at some point it will break down and you'll be left to wonder why.

  • #105
  • Nov 21, 2011 3:20pm Nov 21, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting pip_seeker
over $1000 account to make $20... no. But the human mind is never happy with $20 are you serious?

remember I didn't say it wasn't possible... I did say that it's not sustainable... which in clear terms means at some point it will break down and you'll be left to wonder why.

I think I already went through that phase. Me, I'm quite content with $20.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #106
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:37pm Nov 21, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting Taigen
Are you telling me if you have a $1000 account, it's crazy to make $20 in one day. Hmmm.
What was the lot size and pip take?
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #107
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:50pm Nov 21, 2011 5:50pm
Quoting Taigen
I agree with you to a point but there are times that you can over think it. Expected values are nice and even relatively accurate but alas probabilities are just that. Risks are always at play but some are reasonable and some aren't.

'Deadliest Catch' show demonstrates risk/reward which is not dissimilar to trading. The expected values are based on previous experiences. In other words, math often follows the experience and the accumulation of these experiences can and often do develop into a mathematical algorithm.
Just like the frigid waters of the Bering Sea, the math will show no forgiveness. A system either has a positive expectancy or it doesn't. Remember...the formula for expectancy is based on ratios which, for most traders, are constantly changing. That is why I base my trading on minimum fixed R/R and maximum risk per trade values...leaving the win rate as the only value in flux. How many traders have skewed floating expectancy numbers all over the scale? I'd say a very, very high number of them.

If you're not monitoring whether your trading performance remains in the sweet zone of a positive expectancy, then you're like the captains who start their crabbing season without doing PM's on their boats before shoving off from the dock at Dutch Harbor.
  • #108
  • Nov 21, 2011 6:08pm Nov 21, 2011 6:08pm
Quoting Pipskateer
Just like the frigid waters of the Bering Sea, the math will show no forgiveness. A system either has a positive expectancy or it doesn't. Remember...the formula for expectancy is based on ratios which, for most traders, are constantly changing. That is why I base my trading on minimum fixed R/R and maximum risk per trade values...leaving the win rate as the only value in flux. How many traders have skewed floating expectancy numbers all over the scale? I'd say a very, very high number of them.

If you're not monitoring whether your trading...
Aye, I hear ye. It would o' no doubtin terrify ye if ye saw how I did me buys and sells, but I can tell ye this much what shivers yer timbers and that would be t' sweet zone. It's a curly haired beauties's carress when ye find it and t' deadly arm of a Kracken if'n ye don't.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #109
  • Nov 21, 2011 6:16pm Nov 21, 2011 6:16pm
Quoting Taigen
Aye, I hear ye. It would o' no doubtin terrify ye if ye saw how I did me buys and sells, but I can tell ye this much what shivers yer timbers and that would be t' sweet zone. It's a curly haired beauties's carress when ye find it and t' deadly arm of a Kracken if'n ye don't.
...now that's funny rite there!
  • #110
  • Nov 21, 2011 6:52pm Nov 21, 2011 6:52pm
Moneydeep, do you have income outside of trading or do you trade for a living ?

I think that most people cannot stand the financial pressure and insecurity that is associated with trading for a living. It's nice to do a few swing trades per year on the side and have an extra income through trading.

Quitting your job, leaving your career and spending 8h or more each and every day in front of the screen however is something totally different and can turn you into a psychological wreck because of all the pressure and anxiety.

You might have the best system or technique in the world with a positive expectancy, sound money management etc...your psyche doesn't really care.
  • #111
  • Nov 21, 2011 7:07pm Nov 21, 2011 7:07pm
Quoting Pipskateer
I certainly have noticed our tendency to speak from similar perspectives in this thread. After spending the last several years coming to the conclusions I've reached about money management, I only recently began to read some of Dr. Van Tharp's work. I was amazed how closely the principles he has taught for years so closely describes many of my own realizations about money management. Not that I am anywhere near as learned or scholarly as he is, but it is good confirmation that I am on the right track in my own thinking nonetheless. I wonder...
Pipskateer,

I read Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom a number of years ago, before I started looking at forex. At the time I was dabbling with CFD trading and was searching for a methodological edge, hence in that respect I came away disappointed. Having said that, a lot of Dr Tharp's material on MM and expectancy confirmed that I could safely apply much the same MM that I'd learned from gambling games (blackjack, backgammon, etc), in trading. Over time I came to appreciate what a fine read the book is. I must get it out and read it again.

I also enjoyed Ryan Jones' book on different types of MM, correlation math, market weighting, risk of ruin, and more. The book is arguably more advanced, and he tends to use a more rigorous mathematical approach than Dr Tharp.

Anyway, I digress...... and I apologize to the OP for my contribution in diverting the thread away from his original question.

David
  • #112
  • Nov 22, 2011 8:09am Nov 22, 2011 8:09am
Wow! What a sweet ride down! Gained 4%


[email protected], 12069921600, 8915 Wilkensen Rd SE B5, Yelm, Washington, US United States, 98597

All times are in GMT




Daily Account Summaries
Date/Time Trans# Order# Operation DB/CR Description P/L Balance

Nov 18, 2011 8:00:00 PM Balance state USD 2,498.07 CR
Nov 18, 2011 9:13:37 PM 256485553 USD 0.07 DB FINANCING


Nov 21, 2011 7:44:38 AM 256596587 430645172 Buy USD 5.88 CR Buy 2,000.00 EUR/USD.fx @1.34950 USD 5.88 CR USD 2,579.41 CR

Nov 22, 2011 1:50:38 PM 256837203 430985992 Buy USD 13.59 CR Buy 3,000.00 EUR/USD.fx @1.34947 USD 13.59 CR USD 2,593.00 CR

Nov 22, 2011 1:50:38 PM 256837203 430985992 Buy USD 14.13 CR Buy 3,000.00 EUR/USD.fx @1.34947 USD 14.13 CR USD 2,607.13 CR

Nov 22, 2011 1:50:38 PM 256837203 430985992 Buy USD 15.51 CR Buy 3,000.00 EUR/USD.fx @1.34947 USD 15.51 CR USD 2,622.64 CR

Nov 22, 2011 1:50:38 PM 256837203 430985992 Buy USD 17.52 CR Buy 3,000.00 EUR/USD.fx @1.34947 USD 17.52 CR USD 2,640.16 CR

Nov 22, 2011 1:50:38 PM 256837203 430985992 Buy USD 0.62 CR Buy 1,000.00 EUR/USD.fx @1.34947 USD 0.62 CR USD 2,640.78 CR

Nov 22, 2011 1:50:38 PM 256837203 430985992 Buy USD 21.15 CR Buy 3,000.00 EUR/USD.fx @1.34947 USD 21.15 CR USD 2,661.93 CR

Nov 22, 2011 1:50:38 PM 256837203 430985992 Buy USD 3.07 CR Buy 1,000.00 EUR/USD.fx @1.34947 USD 3.07 CR USD 2,665.00 CR

Nov 22, 2011 1:50:38 PM 256837203 430985992 Buy USD 1.87 CR Buy 1,000.00 EUR/USD.fx @1.34947 USD 1.87 CR USD 2,666.87 CR

Nov 22, 2011 1:50:38 PM 256837203 430985992 Buy USD 2.14 CR Buy 1,000.00 EUR/USD.fx @1.34947 USD 2.14 CR USD 2,669.01 CR

Nov 22, 2011 1:50:38 PM 256837203 430985992 Buy USD 20.22 CR Buy 3,000.00 EUR/USD.fx @1.34947 USD 20.22 CR USD 2,689.23 CR

Nov 22, 2011 1:54:51 PM Balance state USD 2,689.23 CR

Account Value and Margin Summary
Account Balance Account Balance UnRealized P/L
USD 2,689.23 CR 0.00 CR
Net USD 2,689.23 CR 0.00 CR

* Unrealized Profit/Loss may fluctuate prior to settlement due to currency conversion
Margin Requirement:USD 0.00

Available Equity:USD 2,689.23 CR
Floating P/L:USD 0.00 CR

UnRealized P/L:USD 0.00 CR

Equity:USD 2,689.23 CR
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #113
  • Nov 22, 2011 8:38am Nov 22, 2011 8:38am
Quoting Taigen
Wow! What a sweet ride down! Gained 4%


[email protected], 12069921600, 8915 Wilkensen Rd SE B5, Yelm, Washington, US United States, 98597

All times are in GMT




Daily Account Summaries
Date/Time Trans# Order# Operation DB/CR Description P/L Balance

Nov 18, 2011 8:00:00 PM Balance state USD 2,498.07 CR
Nov 18, 2011 9:13:37 PM 256485553 USD 0.07 DB FINANCING


Nov 21, 2011 7:44:38 AM 256596587 430645172 Buy USD 5.88 CR Buy 2,000.00 EUR/USD.fx @1.34950 USD 5.88 CR USD 2,579.41 CR

Nov...
10 winners in a row? Do I understand your statement correctly?
  • #114
  • Nov 22, 2011 8:50am Nov 22, 2011 8:50am
Quoting Taigen
Wow! What a sweet ride down! Gained 4%

Based off what you posted this is a visual representation of what you did... however your records don't decipher what price point you opened or closed at so some of this is an estimated guess.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Taigen_visual.jpg Size: 76 KB
  • #115
  • Nov 22, 2011 9:15am Nov 22, 2011 9:15am
Quoting pip_seeker
Based off what you posted this is a visual representation of what you did... however your records don't decipher what price point you opened or closed at so some of this is an estimated guess.

You're right. Now that I look at it, the statement is only showing the positions where they were closed. Let me find the report that show both. I started my positions at ~3500 and my last one was 3560 something. I closed all of them at once around 3497. Thanks for pointing that out.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #116
  • Nov 22, 2011 9:40am Nov 22, 2011 9:40am
This reports gives the order statement and the fulfilled statement together.





11/22/2011 7:04issued new MARKET order #430896680: SELL 1,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35009

11/22/2011 7:04Filled order #430896680: SELL 1,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35009

11/22/2011 7:13issued new MARKET order #430898314: SELL 1,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35161

11/22/2011 7:13Filled order #430898314: SELL 1,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35161(1.35123+38)

11/22/2011 7:14issued new MARKET order #430898446: SELL 1,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35134

11/22/2011 7:14Filled order #430898446: SELL 1,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35134(1.35160-26)

11/22/2011 7:43issued new MARKET order #430903172: SELL 1,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35254

11/22/2011 7:43Filled order #430903172: SELL 1,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35254

11/22/2011 8:06issued new MARKET order #430908434: SELL 3,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35400

11/22/2011 8:06Filled order #430908434: SELL 3,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35400(1.35398+2)

11/22/2011 8:07issued new MARKET order #430909046: SELL 3,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35418

11/22/2011 8:07Filled order #430909046: SELL 3,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35418(1.35419-1)

11/22/2011 8:31issued new MARKET order #430917252: SELL 3,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35464

11/22/2011 8:31Filled order #430917252: SELL 3,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35464(1.35459+5)

11/22/2011 8:32issued new MARKET order #430917916: SELL 3,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35531

11/22/2011 8:32Filled order #430917916: SELL 3,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35531

11/22/2011 11:18issued new MARKET order #430955842: SELL 3,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35621

11/22/2011 11:18Filled order #430955842: SELL 3,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35621(1.35524+97)

11/22/2011 11:19issued new MARKET order #430956088: SELL 3,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35652

11/22/2011 11:19Filled order #430956088: SELL 3,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35652(1.35650+2)


11/22/2011 14:39issued new MARKET order #430998556: SELL 1,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35189

11/22/2011 14:39Filled order #430998556: SELL 1,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.35189(1.35209-20)

11/22/2011 13:50issued new MARKET order #430985992: BUY 22,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.34947

11/22/2011 13:50Filled order #430985992: BUY 22,000.00 EUR/USD @ 1.34947(1.34959-12)


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Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #117
  • Nov 22, 2011 9:46am Nov 22, 2011 9:46am
Quoting kk007
10 winners in a row? Do I understand your statement correctly?
Yes, however, I have multiple positions in one trade. I usually close all at once when they are all green.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #118
  • Nov 22, 2011 12:52pm Nov 22, 2011 12:52pm
Quoting Custos
you would be my personal hero, if you can pull that off consistently over a year. 2% increase per trading-day = 56,401% a year or $ 565,008.48 on $ 1,000.

Congrats, if you really can pull that kind of percentage return off.
Either you're obtuse or are purposefully framing the examples this way to make it seem impossible to return 2% a day.

Nearly every statement on the subject I've seen from you says the same thing, "wow, 2% a day! you must be better than soros, why aren't you working for a hedge fund making trillions!".

YOU are the only one throwing in the added assumptions of perpetual compounding and zero withdraws, and you should stop, because it's really fucking annoying at this point. Who would trade without ever withdrawing from their account? So silly and you know it (or you don't and you really are just that slow). Just accept that some traders are better than you, grow from it, and move on
  • #119
  • Nov 22, 2011 12:56pm Nov 22, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting smittens4212
Either you're obtuse or are purposefully framing the examples this way to make it seem impossible to return 2% a day.

Nearly every statement on the subject I've seen from you says the same thing, "wow, 2% a day! you must be better than soros, why aren't you working for a hedge fund making trillions!".

YOU are the only one throwing in the added assumptions of perpetual compounding and zero withdraws, and you should stop, because it's really fucking annoying at this point. Who would trade without ever withdrawing from their account? So silly...
okay, then make it two accounts with $ 1.000 each. One to live on and one from which you don't withdraw anything. Don't know what the problem should be there.
Yes, I am that slow.
  • #120
  • Nov 22, 2011 1:23pm Nov 22, 2011 1:23pm
OK, and as everyone here will agree, eventually one of the accounts will be too large to consistently return 2% a day. If this was your only point, fair enough, you're right-- no one will ever be able to return 2% a day forever; it's a pretty lame and transparent point at that, though, because we all live in the real world, and I tend to assume people argue from practical points of view instead of purely theoretical.

Your one and only fallacious mathematical argument ceases to exist if we assume people have to do real life things, have to live off the account and will be making regular withdrawals instead of the account just perpetually compounding forever and ever and ever without being touched <--- that is an entirely silly point to start your argument from, and I hope you agree.
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