100 Fold Challenge -> Interested? TEST yourself

Ha ha, yep it's all my fault Hoping to get some decent bear action now. Was only a few pips away from another loss on this short. Actually the plan was to exit on a decent break of 50, but it only spiked it so was able to stay in. If I had copped another loss it would have been my loss limit for the day (2% on normall accounts) and the quickest I would have ever reached the limit (just a couple of hours). Lets see how far the bears can take this now

Ok, profits taken at 3485ish. Was looking for 80 but price was stalling and didn't want to go into the new hour without some taking some off the table. Expecting a bit of a bounce here, then down to 3465-70. Next stop 3445-50. If we can break through that cluster (3430-3465) I think we might see 3360-80 today, but I am getting ahead of myself now

Another 1/4 of the position off the table at 3460 (we gotta get a bounce somewhere in this cluster). Hmm, no reaction at 80, bears have some conviction here me thinks. Will prob take no more profits in this cluster, will trail a stop instead.

Wow, what a trade, these don't come along every day. And couldn't be better timing after the start I had today

You in on this FS?

Nope. In fact took at long @3474...presently in quite red!
In spite of the beating, Euro is taking currently (and previous weeks)...i am not much biased towards shorting it.
Yes, it has broken the last weekly lows of 1.3483's (i talked about higher TF charts & levels before)...but not effectively as of now (There was quite a demand there around 3450's).
Waiting for this H4 candle to close. Anything above 1.3500 zone would be bullish for me..at least for next 4 hours or so If continues upside with good bullish H1 PA too.. 1.3600 is likely for sure.

I am also bullish about EURCHF, as of now.....took some entries around 1.2365's ....waiting for more (not in this account though). H4 TF shows almost completing Typical Cup and Handle Formation (or a atypical Inv. H & S; left shoulder is atypical ) Neck is around 1.2440's & if moves up, will halt a bit at 1.24. We just formed a daily low (breaking previous days low) with no follow through as of now.
If doesn't play out well now. I still would be in buy on dip mode in Both pairs (at least until any major TL's or patterns are annulled, respectively)
Lets WnW


P.S. A frank advise...if possible ..kindly consolidate your posts. Say if someone hasn't posted, you can always edit your lately posted previous post. Readers (mainly non-participants;esp.newbies)..may think this to be some kind of grail "calls" thread....hope u get my drift

No worries FS, thought my ranting and tiny thread clogging posts would get on your nerves sooner or later, but it was good whilst it lasted

Not a bad long you have there in my opinion. My long entry point would have been around the same area (3460-65), but to me PA is saying to me that we might be able to slice through this cluster with conviction and on our way to 3360-80. A solid break of 3480 would change my mind somewhat and break of 3504 would def see me calling this short quits.

Oh, looks like we are breaking 80 now, better get back to the charts. Good luck

Too bad agro... u surely bringing me bad luck
(wanna hire a contract killer )

That EU long was once taking that 29USD to 66USD float. Didn't hit the decided target of around 1.3550's before retracing to new lows and busting d account.
6th account gone with the wishes ..as a martyr
7th account getting ready

As of now, i am biased towards buying EURUSD on every dip (even till 1.3350 zone). Though looking at the PA, it may again form a spike low.


P.S. You are free to post your analysis regarding anything ...(than just plain trades..i know u know what i mean )..... don't worry..my nerves are kinda numb these days...hehe

Week 1 no trades

After starting this 100 fold challenge with great intentions I allowed myself to get distracted by other things. That is pretty much how my personality works, I like the idealism of planning something much more than practical application of actually doing it. Maybe I need to hire someone to trade my plan for me.

This coming week I will trade this challenge and post my results.

Hey all.

I will not just be posting screenshot, but a full summary for the week. It will be a sort of journal for me to refer too.

Well, not a great week this week, started with an 8%+ loss and another one on wednesday that was followed by two quick losses for a total of -16% in three trades. These two big losses are genrally quite rare for my strategy (like to keep it tight), but do happen a couple of times a month. Also, made a really stupid trade this morning after getting back from the pub, figured drunk trading was ok on this tiny account Only cost me 2% but could have been worse. So enough with the excusses, here are the results.

Summary of Market and Trading Execution - Mostly ranging this week, but a quite a wide range with clearly defineble bounds and not alot of action in the middle. I generally like these kind of conditions, but traded quite poorly this week so didn't capitalize. Had a few very well positioned trades that I got out for BE too soon, also held onto too much of one trade in anticipation of a breakout which in hindsight was def the wrong decision. Also let a couple of trades get away from me for losses at the higher end of my tolerance that was not really neccisary. Not very happy with my performance and disipline was lacking somewhat, but wasn't terrible either (85% of the trades were handled well).

Balance - 944.14

P/L - (-5.6%)

Trades - 17 trades

Win/Loss/BE - 5/10/2 (A break even is 1pip or less as spread is 1pip)

Win/Loss ratio (r:r) - 4/3.2 (very poor for the strategy)

Biggest Profit Peak - (0%)

Biggest Drawdown - (-19%)

@Forexsaint

Hope you did well this week mate. You called 1.3600 for E/U earlier and you were spot on. My short entry was 1.3617 which was missed by a couple of pips

The trades I posted were two of the worst managed trades for the week so I will not be posting trades as I do them anymore. I may post charts each day or week showing all the trades after the fact but not sure I can be bothered with all the extra work for such a small account (already need to do it for my other accounts for my own journal).

Enjoy your weekend


http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/350/ac19thnov.png

First statement above is more of a REALITY with many, than being "its only you". Most sane will agree to it. Also, taking the first step is 50% of work.
May be you can hire an EA (they won't charge money for executing ur mechanical plan (in case it is one)...just some bandwidth & CPU cycles & may be ur whole account (in case don't teach the kid (code them properly))
Cheers for the new week.
BTW I plan to make 1 entry to HOF'TL each day next week. My dog just sniffed the holy grail in my lawn & now u can guess whose the next buffet
Good idea...REALLY OK with post like these. A request would be to always keep in mind that it will always be a challenge thread than a week-end journal(for anyone)...else u know sometimes...i too get bit drunk ...hehe
Yeah 1.3600 did hit as expected...but alas after quite a shitty consolidation. Scaling in (which is essential, when i have a bias) hates it.. Further gigantic accounts like mine don't leave me much to hope for, once my timing is wrong. As they say it..everything has a price..so is the price of trading such accounts...i.e. "Be F**king 100% Sure" even with timing..not just analysis.
In future, my bias will remain same i.e. bullish (buy on every dip till 1.3350's where i seriously need to re-think).

IMO
In W1 TF, the following chart is worth posting on weekend
In continuation of previous post..
- changed the position of TL "C" (more appropriate now)
- Added TL "H"
- Added 2 arrow markers.
Presently, it looks like TL "D" is supporting the price. TL "G" is what i talked about in case price moves more lower (around same 1.3350 zone)

On D1 TF,
Price closing above 1.3650's would be enough for aggressive hidden bulls or converting bears to buy.
Price moving above 1.3800's would be enough for screwing the bears BIG TIME (I stress that bcoz, TL "A" (i consider this TL very important) is at same level & if broken upside price will sharply move to TL "F". Currently 3 major MA's kissing in similar region of 1.3970's) . Breaking them..TL "H" is likely sooner or later.
On Downside,
There is an interesting (important too) possibility of almost completing bearish HnS with shoulder-neck points marked by arrow markers ( havn't drawn the TL). Price breaking TL "B" would be enough to drive price quite low (even if fake) ..as neck break of HnS will be at same level... probably to 1.2900's.

Saying all this, as i usually say... nothing is 100% for anyone (except ma y be one is a central bank head ).Hell will break lose for EU if any more pandora box opens for Euro zone or some agency downgrading france/etc (esp. when rumours are moving currencies more). I would be the first to change my bias in any such major news.


@Participants
Given the fact some participants have withdrawn from the challenge & that i was PM'ed by >1 participant regarding similar issue (which were properly replied to), i have added 2 new rules. Kindly see updates and in case anyone has any objection, feel free to clarify with me via PM.

@Participants who were informed of the rule violation
of not updating the results, even after 1 week....are now hereby given 2 days time to do the same, as they agreed to while signing up. Those who do not, will be automatically disqualified from the contest & status updated.

Best of luck to all for next Week.

Hey


no trade this week


however reavaluated my view on EU .. we are in a weak position
and the most recent action doesent show real strenght .. makes this pair still weak.. so i stay on the sidelines with a bearish to neutral bias.


i also took a look at the euro futures contract (E7)

some views:


bigger picture:
we have left the demand channel
broke support


1.
we approach support with a ultra high vol wide spread down bar
however no follow thru but vol drops off and bar spread is low + close off the high,finally break thru support by two wide spread down bars on increasing vol (SOW)



2. after some sort of stopping action or temp. support of the market
we make a high volume reaction /rallie .. but look at the effort wich remains high but price is having a hard time to gain ground! effort vs result!
also we close below the high of a supply bar!


3. as we rallie back to prev. support we have a fakeout breakout on average vol.with no follow thru and a wide spread down bar on increasing vol. wich makes this a 3 day upthrust (pinbar) followed by another increasing in vol and wide spread down bar SOW

4. another wide spread down bar on high vol.


all signs of weakness and that quality of supply is good while quality of demand is poor...!

Hanging in by a thread. Frustrating as I was up 40% early on! This week will see a new system being used that I'm quote excited about.

EURUSD
Though i ain't still trading it (7th Account is still in process of being setup) (though i have positions in my usual accounts/s)

On D1 TF
(going by the price levels & PA on lower TF's), if candle closes anything around or above 1.3530's... probably the weekly low is done
(& if up move is seen in coming days of this week, probably monthly low is done too)

My BIAS (as detailed before)
I ain't shorting this till 1.3350's zone is broken effectively.
In "Every dip is a buy" mode.

USDCHF
Accordingly (going by the quite strong co-relation), without any more SNB's new peg babble (or action), my bias is again for sub 0.9000 levels, at least. (charts about it later)


@Trumpcard
Good luck with your new strategies

I'm in.

Broker: IBFX
Deposit: $150 Real
Leverage: 50:1

Statement:
http://www.mt4i.com/users/4xcycletrader

http://www.mt4i.com/banner.aspx?id=4xcycletrader&t=300

http://www.mt4i.com/charts/ResultCha...it&w=400&h=200

EURUSD... looking dandy
Hit that 1.3530 zone i talked about, a while back (with daily high at 1.3540)
What has to be seen is the close. Interesting Enough (at least for me)
Lets WnW.


Alright.... info added in main post.
Looking at your (bit incomplete) details, i would first like you to confirm
1) Your starting Equity is 401.68
2) Your currency is USD
Also
i hope you have read the whole main post carefully and agree to understand/abide by the same, including all rules.
As soon you confirm, you will be "Allowed" to roll.

Would like to emphasize the same view (and level) again.
Yesterday didn't hold up.
Today's high(till now) is in 1.3560's & Currently quoting 1.3539
Would be closely watching whether it moves up more or retraces back
& the most important closing level.

Starting Equity: $100
Currency: AUD
Broker: Go Markets
Leverage: 100:1
Method of publishing: MT4 screenshot/history

might be my last attempt! (for a while )

@Participants
Pursuant to the rule violation >posted< & subsequent final >reminder< for the same,
2 participants have been "disqualified" & their status updated.
Just for information of all, once again, those who find it difficult to even update once a week, are always free to setup/link their account with allowed online trader publishers. Updating results once a week is probably the only small obligation, i kept as a rule, for any participant here and that can be easily taken care of too, by linking up a trade publisher. Can't make it more easier !

Yesterday also didn't hold up. Closed @ 1.3504
EURUSD is not able to close above this on D1 TF. Still being offered up there.

1.3530's Zone i talked about is still playing. Today's high (till now is 1.3530) & Currently quoting 1.3456
This consolidation is promising major move soon. My Bias/Views still the same.

Positions:
None. New challenge account setup facing issues. (Trading only usual account)
Alright ...updated the info in main post.
Good to go. You seem to be testing a lot of strategies with real money. Best of luck

Currently @ 1.3385

Some bad data but mainly german bund auction fiasco(yields spiking) & as expected FITCH's some straight talk about french possibilities of rating downgrade...weighing on.

Just made D1, W1 and MN TF low @ 1.3371 (1.3400 gone as of now)
& probably will spike a bit more looking at the PA.
My Long bias will keep on weakening from here on till 1.3350's (buying on dip till here,as posted)and 1.3300 sweet level is VERY VERY IMP. Stops can logically be kept Sub-1.3300 or some hedge trades over there.
Basic Pivot W1 Support @ 1.3359

D1 and W1 TF charts are worth watching!

Lets WnW


P.S. If for some reason, moves back above 1.3500 today or tomorrow (or a close above 1.3480).... will weaken the bear case for sure.

Also important s/r and daily s3. This level interests me too

Currently @1.3330

Just made a new D1, W1 and MN TF low @ 1.3315
1.3300 preserved (as till now , at least)
1.3359 played its own part while spiking lower (as expected)

1.3336, a new level, is Important IMO. Watch out

On Upside,
overall, this new low with no follow through PA, along with previous long bias, makes me WATCH this closely.(Rejection from 3315 ain't good either; bulls waiting?) I would add up longs on break of 1.3359 today itself and closes anything above 1.3380
(Have small longs added already in usual trading around 1.3329; Issues with Payment methods with my broker...7th attempt prolly from monday)

On downside,
1.3300 is very important level for bulls to protect.

On H4 TF
Perfect Bullish wedge...just a food of thought (Though there are other important patterns in various TF's, as discussed before)

(Note: Some readers may not agree with my TL placements. Logical enough, as i have some own guidelines/rules for the same)

On D1 TF
As of now, Candle looking pretty bearish.
Lets WnW


EURGBP
Days low (till now) : 0.8584.
If preserves this level today, it can retrace back till weekly highs of 0.8664 soon.