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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #29,121
  • Nov 19, 2011 2:39am Nov 19, 2011 2:39am
Hi Friends,

perhaps this is giving an idea, what fti and others have been talking about, when they have been stating, that the market is manipulated.

Found this pic on another thread and was thinking it could illustrate the scenario. I do not want to speculate about who was behind that action, so forget about the word "institution" ....

If I'm wrong, I'll remove it soon ...


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1284539407
  • #29,122
  • Nov 19, 2011 2:46am Nov 19, 2011 2:46am
[quote=MaMood;5148737]Hi Friends,

perhaps this is giving an idea, what fti and others have been talking about, when they have been stating, that the market is manipulated.

Found this pic on another thread and was thinking it could illustrate the scenario. I do not want to speculate about who was behind that action, so forget about the word "institution" ....

If I'm wrong, I'll remove it soon ...




Hi Niels! Thank you, interesting idea. This reminds me how works "bull and bear flags. At friday i was watching, that we can implement some Eliot - thinking at E/U M5 chart... how that long impulze, small retrace... anothe wave - FAILURE. But always remember these are ONLY TOOLS. regards
  • #29,123
  • Nov 19, 2011 4:43am Nov 19, 2011 4:43am
hi everyone

i have noted that there has been quite a bit of talk of how/when news affects the markets and about volatility lately.

here is a free download that i use to alert me when ever there is any important news events, it has loads of settings and filters to play around with to suit your own requirements, it is a windows based program so all here that want to should be able to use it, it still uses the FF calender so lists events with their potential impact on the market, it also has a volatility meter within it (for those that need it), this was found on another FF thread and was created by 'fiatfap' so any thanks should go to him for producing this for free.


http://fxnewsalert.com/

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #29,124
  • Nov 19, 2011 7:51am Nov 19, 2011 7:51am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

perhaps this is giving an idea, what fti and others have been talking about, when they have been stating, that the market is manipulated.

Found this pic on another thread and was thinking it could illustrate the scenario. I do not want to speculate about who was behind that action, so forget about the word "institution" ....

If I'm wrong, I'll remove it soon ...


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1284539407...
Hi MaMood, hope you are having a good weekend. I saw this post and wanted to make a comment. The manipulation of the market, in my view, has little to do with retail side of trading, and the banks that are involved are not hiding their trades or intentions. After all, the charts tell us exactly what is going on. In addition, during periods of manipulation, IMO, the banks are not sure where the market is going (at least most of the time), and they are doing the manipulation/accumulation/consolidation in preparation for what may be coming (news event, end of the world, etc) but is still unknown. My problem with the graphic is it looks like the retail trader is taken advantage of (the target) of a preconcieved action, which I don't believe to be true (it just feels that way sometimes -- lol).
  • #29,125
  • Nov 19, 2011 11:16am Nov 19, 2011 11:16am
Quoting proseeker
well said ,nice question mate?
BUT A LONG EXPLANATION WAITS MATE,PLEASE BE PATIENT..
max times marathon mate., the speed of requirements and demands push me into a speedy run.
while the run needs to be taking slow beats.The best is b'coz of demands on living alike "fana" .
Fanna can share his experience with you how stressfull/easy it is...so you can learn from his experience how it feels with trading and requirement...at one point even for 2 months i was full time trader but i realized my trading capital was not enough ..so i am back in job increasing my trading capital...

i can assure you making 2-3% a day is much different making 0.2-0.3% a day...the latter makes you trade way you want to trade...BUT BUT...when you just dance and forget about these numbers totally thats when you learn this way of trading....
Quote
Personally I had too many losses which happened incidentally., like the monks story and its impacts-I am the young monk here loading the past burdens and speed them up in forex.
As time speaks off,I have to run, but I know the market is as it was..pure as falls which flow steady or speeding up due to the rains that speed them up,exact is forex.
The least I try is to profit from the turbines below the falls to create some hydro electric power rather than fighting for the atomic power.
Thinking to be creative and taking water to drink from the...

Read this post by chief and view the video....and lets see if you can think there is similarity...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post3999828
Quote
For instance my former earnings were 20-45 usd a day,the business collapsed due to a turmoil in USA and still my capital is sprung into government case.
so after loosing hefty capital which is not a business loss I have to speed things to cope up.,
for now the demand for capital pushes me to bring up around the same income through forex.This is the major fault.
A day of 2% return suffices,but what is provided in the market is more than 100%,if my system,NOUS, are effectively employed and provided there are no screw trades in the market.I would...

I am sure you watched this movie
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1187043/

it ended saying ...

Run toward excellence...success will follow..

so run towards getting the trading right....10-20-30-100% you will make it...people have doubled there account in a day in this thread...so EVENTUALLY you will get there

Quote

Most lurking around forex forums are in one way or other wish to get a ease of living and there is really no constraint here,if you are skilled and patient enough ,the reality of profits can skyrocket I have experienced this prior., didn't I say I made 2500 usd in 24 hours with 1 lot=$10.

but after i withdrew a major part and retried the same I lost all. Not a good money management.I cannot be patient is that situation, BUT THE REALITY IS PATIENCE PAYS IN FOREX THAN IN ANY OTHER INVESTMENT WHEN IN RIGHT PATH.

Well patience pays...but when you are trader then this is what chief said..

For traders too, many must be able to trade the markets whenever they come on board, otherwise the productivity is lost to opportunity cost.
So in essence , whenever a trader comes to battlestation, he should trade.

here is the link...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post1824240

Quote
The very vital point in forex is PRICE and following it with real demand and supply which is opted from real dealers., scalpers mostly cannot survive b'coz of this reason,the short moves are created by retailers and they create a demand for sharks, I had understood the game,But money keeps pushing me inside.

The majority of retailers like us does not understand this plain fact.

HERE IN THIS FORUM WHAT I CITED IS ;
There are crooky business people who push demands to one market at a time and motivate the retailers to move a time but in reality...

Here

from fti:

Regarding trends, trends mean different things to different people. The accepted definition of a trend is a persistent direction of move, on an up trend the highs get higher and low stays higher, conversely a down trend, when the low gets lower and the high stays lower.

No trends move in a straight line advance or decline. Within any major trend, there are minor trends, then there are intraday trend, hourly trends and so forth. Its your choice to decide which is within your scope to cope with.

Quote
money bull mate that sometimes wounds the players when irritated.
what to say?

Well i hope you know in bodybuilding it is said...

"Pain is the weakness leaving the body"..

aka when you get irritated you know where the scorpions are...

i loved Chief advise...

trade with a smile on your face it is easier that way


Quote
seek your comments regarding this mate,Hope I can call that way,the sailors way in a deep voyage...hmm expedition to Antartica.Be prepared for the snows-the least money lurkers like me are,and the real traders for business like you and FTI are not for a expedition,might be the explorers and their job nature (like our Admiral FTI in the sea of forex).

Always the fight continues,sometimes I am always friendly with animals,I am a vegetarian too...hahahah sheesh...at times the animals both bull and bear target me.....random escape but thrilling...

following is my opinion

At the end there is no BEAR and there is NO BULL.....everything is in US....

go forth and sake mate....go for journey rewards will come....go for rewards not sure how much you will learn the journey properly...

V

PS: one of the longest answer i wrote on this forum .....
  • #29,126
  • Nov 19, 2011 11:16am Nov 19, 2011 11:16am
Quoting GEfx
Hi MaMood, hope you are having a good weekend. I saw this post and wanted to make a comment. The manipulation of the market, in my view, has little to do with retail side of trading, and the banks that are involved are not hiding their trades or intentions. After all, the charts tell us exactly what is going on. In addition, during periods of manipulation, IMO, the banks are not sure where the market is going (at least most of the time), and they are doing the manipulation/accumulation/consolidation in preparation for what may be coming (news event,...
Hi GE,

perhaps I have not stated it clearly enough, but I just took the picture and mentioned to forgtt about the word "institution". Of course the same is true for the mentioned "retailers". Only the market form was of interest for me ...

Wish you also a great weekend!

CU
  • #29,127
  • Nov 19, 2011 11:26am Nov 19, 2011 11:26am
no one has that power.

a LARGE INSTITUTION trying to be wise gets their ass handed to them by another institution.

no one has the secret no one knows more or can play with the market more than the average joe.

we are all blinded by the fog of war, and timing, is of much importance.


by the way, EVERYONE PREDICTS PRICE, even fti,i read his predictions in this thread. to trade is to predict. the trick is to be in the right side and recognize when we are in the wrong side.

buy= predicting an appreciation
sell= predicting a devaluation

following price is ambiguous,
most times the areas of less risk are the areas where one has position one self in anticipation of the move to come.

unless trading breakouts, and it all comes down to the same crap.

no one has the holy grail, everything is build on experience,

fti gave us great foundations,
mindset
and the quest to objectively read unpredictable non random data.
money management strategy as a guide, that may or may not be suitable for everyone.

indicators are great when using them to indicate valuable data for the purpose of objective market recognition.
i believe trading is like boxing, no one right way to box, but the basics must be solid, and every puch is different, the opponent must be studied for flaws, habits and so on.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #29,128
  • Nov 19, 2011 11:52am Nov 19, 2011 11:52am
Sup redlion

Just curious here. The last time we talked, I remember you holding a different opinion on prediction. Why the change?
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #29,129
  • Nov 19, 2011 5:19pm Nov 19, 2011 5:19pm
hey dude long time no see.

cause a wise man accepts his mistakes.

i had a talk with nubcake, and he makes sense

buy or sell by definition there is prediction to it.

now fti mentions not to be mechanical and not to trade solely on indicators read, but the whole follow price thing idea i think sometimes is taken too far in this thread.

objective analysis, of market and trade is what is really required, but then again objective is very subjective in financial instrument trading. hence the difficulty of this endeavor,

we all have an opinion, and dancing the dance, as its called, can leave you very very broke if taken literally.

in my experience finding the daily direction, by predicting it or forecasting it as our conversation went remember?, according to volatility, price levels, momentum is what i attempt, most times price closses above or below open as i have said somewhere else this displacement is 117 pips on average.

anyway im just ranting now
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #29,130
  • Nov 19, 2011 10:58pm Nov 19, 2011 10:58pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

perhaps this is giving an idea, what fti and others have been talking about, when they have been stating, that the market is manipulated.

Found this pic on another thread and was thinking it could illustrate the scenario. I do not want to speculate about who was behind that action, so forget about the word "institution" ....

If I'm wrong, I'll remove it soon ...


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1284539407...
Excellent graphic. There is another explanation. Bears have decided to defend the top level, bulls the bottom, and then something happens (ie Italian bonds rise to 7%, Greek call on referendum, Dow up 3%) and the bulls or the bears decide to take the day off and the market trends for a day to a new level.

If I were to look at market manipulation I would look at surprise spikes accompanied by false rumors that turn out to be stop runs or low liquidity times acting very differently from a high liquidity times.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #29,131
  • Edited 6:31am Nov 20, 2011 1:41am | Edited 6:31am
Quoting MaMood
Hi and Good Morning Friends!

Pondering about a lot of inspiring postings i have seen in here during the past few days.

I think that these days you can only make some good money, when you are reacting to the market and do not try to anticipate it.
When we are in a range, trade it.
When the range is broken, adjust sizes immediately and trade on.
Fti has given us the tools and the mindset to trade every market.
So let's do it.

Pondering and brainwork is most of the time the opponent of succesful trading. Especially when trading fti's...
This guy is the best, he has dealt with is ego just recognising it. No concepts. No words. No bias. No opinion. Just simple pure action. Very much like Siddartha of Herman Hess. (German as well).

He showed me how he trades live, seemed more like Sonny Rollins playing his saxophone when in the zone. No tension. Just flow.

Since then, he has in some way, bestowed me, I do not trade the way he does, but I found it difficult to make less that 1% a day return.

In my view, his words in his posts have a very clear meaning, the one to help others of how is done.



mla

Inserted Video
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #29,132
  • Edited 3:16am Nov 20, 2011 2:31am | Edited 3:16am
Quoting the redlion
hey dude long time no see.

Cause a wise man accepts his mistakes.

I had a talk with nubcake, and he makes sense

buy or sell by definition there is prediction to it.

Now fti mentions not to be mechanical and not to trade solely on indicators read, but the whole follow price thing idea i think sometimes is taken too far in this thread.

Objective analysis, of market and trade is what is really required, but then again objective is very subjective in financial instrument trading. Hence the difficulty of this endeavor,

we all have...
半土先生
吃飯面翻碗底得混蛋!
  • #29,133
  • Nov 20, 2011 2:41am Nov 20, 2011 2:41am
Quoting fti
吃飯面翻碗底得混蛋!
你这个说法我不大明白.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #29,134
  • Nov 20, 2011 2:57am Nov 20, 2011 2:57am
hey fti

i speak English
Russian
Spanish
and some tagalog,

not much chinese and do not know how to read it. in case you were responding to me
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #29,135
  • Nov 20, 2011 3:05am Nov 20, 2011 3:05am
Quoting fti
吃飯面翻碗底得混蛋!
if im not mistaken your statement reads in english

" turn to eat the bowl too, asshole face!"

surely I am mistaken, fti, so please explain

如果我对你写信给我正确的，这里只有混蛋是你！
不同的语言对我的人身攻击，不过是怯懦。
证明我错了FTI。我有一个尊重你的很多，我欠你很多，但我有权利不同意时，事情并没有太多意义。

我与你的行为有时很惊讶。
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #29,136
  • Edited 4:08am Nov 20, 2011 3:31am | Edited 4:08am
Quoting AaronWard
你这个说法我不大明白.
no matter just a statement.
Just try not be of same feathers.

Not understand is ok, slowly learn.
But try not mislead others.
and never take what i explicitly say not to do , and say i encourage that.

No need try translate it. What is said is of soul.
Beyond the english language explain.
I would had said it in english if there was way do it.

It would be easier for you understand this.
家賊難防
Insider thiefs are hard to detect.

regards
  • #29,137
  • Nov 20, 2011 5:02am Nov 20, 2011 5:02am
Quoting fti
no matter just a statement.
Just try not be of same feathers.

Not understand is ok, slowly learn.
But try not mislead others.
and never take what i explicitly say not to do , and say i encourage that.

No need try translate it. What is said is of soul.
Beyond the english language explain.
I would had said it in english if there was way do it.

It would be easier for you understand this.
家賊難防
Insider thiefs are hard to detect.

regards
Dear FTI,

Please take comfort you are authentic and priceless for those ready to learn, practice and internalize although we might be the “silent majority”.

Big thinkers why not start your own thread(s), you will find plenty big thinkers to trade big ideas

Now on to a different topic and somewhat related to recent posts of “price speculation”, below is some tidbit from Richard Olsen (founder of Oanda Corporation) “How to Trade”(Not sure when this was written, my guess is at least 2-3 years ago so adjust for present volatility)

” Beware of unforeseen price cascades
Currency markets have a daily turnover of spot transactions of approximately 1.4 trillion USD; this is a mind-boggling number, equivalent to approximately 10 percent of the annual US GNP. The daily turnover translates into a flow per minute of 1 billion USD, which is still a lot of money. If we go a step further and compute the volume per second, then the turnover collapses to only 16 Mio per second, which equates to 8 Mio buying and another 8 Mio of selling volume for all exchange rates together.

On a second by second basis, the volume is a mere trickle; this is a huge contrast to the mind-blowing number for a full 24 hour trading day. For the individual exchange rates, the second by second volume numbers are a lot smaller: for EURUSD with the biggest turnover, the volume per second is 3.5 Mio USD and, for a minor exchange rate, such as USDCAD, only a trifle of 250′000 USD per second. The trickle volume on a second by second basis is also true for other markets, such as equity and fixed income markets. There the situation is even more extreme; the volumes in these other markets are 10 times smaller for the fixed income and 50 times smaller for the equity markets.

In foreign exchange, the spreads are low; for EURUSD, they are as low as 0.006 percent. The size of the spread is small when compared with the average daily price move of 0.6%, so the risk as market maker is high. If the market maker cannot sell his inventory, then he risks incurring a large loss. He can only generate a profit if he carefully manages risk. He needs to aggressively skew his prices up or down to minimize his exposure. If he does not do this, then a small imbalance of buying and selling will result in a large exposure, where he risks incurring a loss. This implies that even
small orders have a big price impact.

Compared to the trillions that are traded every day, it is thus paradoxical
that already small market orders can move the market. For minor currencies, 50 Mio is enough to move the exchange rate by 0.2 percent. For the major currencies such as EURUSD, the necessary amount is roughly 100 to 200 Mio depending on the time of day; these numbers are peanuts in the bigger picture. To move the EURUSD by 0.2 percent, a trade of 200 Mio USD needs to be made, which requires as little as 5 Mio USD in terms of equity.

It is astounding that an economy with a GDP of 14 trillion can have its exchange rate moved by 0.2% due to the actions of a trader with 5 Mio USD of equity. Because a small market order can move the market, there is no certainty of the direction of the next price move – at any time, there may be an unexpected price spike, up or down. It is sufficient if just one person anywhere in the world decides to buy or sell in size for a price spike to occur. Under specific circumstances, such a price spike can lead to cascading margin calls and bring about a price avalanche.”
  • #29,138
  • Edited 6:20am Nov 20, 2011 5:32am | Edited 6:20am
removed, not worth talking.
  • #29,139
  • Nov 20, 2011 5:32am Nov 20, 2011 5:32am
Cheap money. They are the farmers right?
Attached Image
  • #29,140
  • Nov 20, 2011 6:02am Nov 20, 2011 6:02am
Quoting imjscn
redlion, it's an expression that only Southeast Chinese can understand. They throw this expression and walk away when they feel disturbed and run out of words.
In your previous post, you explained your trading idea, thanks for sharing by the way, it goes to a different direction from what fti taught. That's fine as long as it works for you, but you expressed it in a way as if it was fti taught so. I guess that's why fti felt disturbed and ran out of words.
its a fucked up expression, i suppose i can excuse fti on his stress and health problems that he is becoming a bit confused and paranoid.

i have no desire to argue or post quotes from fti himself here but he has stated the direction he EXPECTS the market to go by saying "safer to sell the tops now" or something of the sort, before i went on vacation.

that is a prediction
everytime he deploys as scout its a prediction on expected devaluation or appreciation of a currency or instrument, when one "attacks" its an attempt to profit further from a prediction in certain direction.
when one "rescues" or averages down, means the prediction did not pan out as expected and now we may or may not be caught in miss timing or wrong side and by averaging our entrances we are further risking more capital to attempt to bail out at break even, smaller loss, or even gain. this is done by increasing lot sizes in the same direction of the original position, still prediction in my book.

he says i am a thief, i have stolen nothing, nor am i attempting to "sabotage"
as i have said before, fti had my respects and i WILL ALWAYS OWE HIM my success, but i wish not to be a copy of him, my experiences in the market and my intellect have taken me to my own conclusion on things.

he has no right to insult me and act as a coward by doing it, in a language i do not understand.

i have overstayed my welcome here i suppose, i am just irritated, on the irationality of " blank mind, no prediction, no opinions just follow price"

what does this truly mean?
and is not a lack of understanding, i understand objective continuous, analysis and always thinking one is wrong until proven right, i also understand troubleshooting a position to rectify it. i understand discipline and mindset.

THERE IS ALWAYS PREDICTION, THERE ARE ALWAYS OPINION, trading itself is based uppon SPECULATION, of REVERSAL or CONTINUATION. APPRECIATION, DEVALUATION.

Indicators seem to be a bad word here
stop losses or profit targets as well
any strategic position, opinion or method is WRONG, "follow price, trade the now, no prediction"

which is contradictory in and of itself, follow price = sell on red candle buy on green? after the move has been completed?

there is more than one way to skin a cat.
profit is the goal

this is not a fucking cult is a business.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
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