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  • #7,321
  • Edited 1:54am Nov 19, 2011 1:40am | Edited 1:54am
If the whole German People simply could vote ... like the HELVETIANS with true "VOLKSABSTIMMUNG" ... then we would have two different States again ... and two different societies ...

If the whole German People could simply vote, then we will get happily divorced again !

That's a fact ... that's for shure ...



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #7,322
  • Nov 19, 2011 2:43am Nov 19, 2011 2:43am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Mercy,


what makes you believe, that we have seen a significant low at 3422?

My view, in fact, is, that we are in a series of 1-2's down. The sideways/upways movement of the last days is clearly corrective ABC move with C finished at 361x. The following move down so far showed a clear impulse.

Maybe the ABC was finished at 361x, or it was part of a broader wxy correction. The w-wave then is the ABC we have just seen. In this scenario we can go down to 3423 and then up 361x or in case of extension to 3720/3746. Then down again to 3270-74,...
OK ... now back to your question ...

I'm not too deeply concerned in Elliott and that was always obviously to my very best ... dennoch ... wir haben hier alte, gediente und hochangesehene Experten für diesen Zweck in einem Team ...

1.342221 represents a four week low ... and pivotal major support sits now above that area again ... and this is most important reason for me ... it is most robust argument ...

Markus ... I'm pretty shure that it counts up at first ... specially in very near-term TFs we have got some structures that prefers the upside for now ...

Projection for direction sits at 1.3565 and 1.3609 / 53 and currently 1.3653 has not been hit again ...

And 1.3422/21 this is our last significant turning point ... aus basta !

From a prospective on a daily TF setup I think we have seen a low there ... for Mondays setup I mean ... and in this case I am with T@ra and do not try to look for a larger picture at current situation ...

Maybe later I will do more specific works on that ... not at the moment ...

I have worked out my TABLES for the WEEK AHEAD now ...

But I will post them later ...



2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #7,323
  • Nov 19, 2011 12:30pm Nov 19, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Mercy,


what makes you believe, that we have seen a significant low at 3422?

My view, in fact, is, that we are in a series of 1-2's down. The sideways/upways movement of the last days is clearly corrective ABC move with C finished at 361x. The following move down so far showed a clear impulse.

Maybe the ABC was finished at 361x, or it was part of a broader wxy correction. The w-wave then is the ABC we have just seen. In this scenario we can go down to 3423 and then up 361x or in case of extension to 3720/3746. Then down again to 3270-74, eventually...
Here's my take on it...

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1321512089

and

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1321661414
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #7,324
  • Nov 19, 2011 3:26pm Nov 19, 2011 3:26pm
Quoting mercy seat
OK ... now back to your question ...

I'm not too deeply concerned in Elliott and that was always obviously to my very best ... dennoch ... wir haben hier alte, gediente und hochangesehene Experten für diesen Zweck in einem Team ...

1.342221 represents a four week low ... and pivotal major support sits now above that area again ... and this is most important reason for me ... it is most robust argument ...

Markus ... I'm pretty shure that it counts up at first ... specially in very near-term TFs we have got some structures...

OK, I see.

Nothing against that view, since I too stated, that we might get another push up for 372 or a little bit higher eventually.

But out of my sight that makes the 3422 not a "significant" turning point, since it is only a turning point of a lower degree EW (retracement).

But that al depends on "perspective" LOL
  • #7,325
  • Nov 19, 2011 3:41pm Nov 19, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting RamsesII
Here's my take on it...

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1321512089

and

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1321661414
Hello Ramses,

interesting alternative and the outcome is the same as in my count.

Problem in your count:

you have the highest downside momentum in your wave 1 of orange wave 3. That is kind of unusual.

Then try this count on a 4h TF. It does not work. I think wave orange 5 has to be incorporated in the run from 380x to 342x
  • #7,326
  • Nov 19, 2011 3:46pm Nov 19, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting infinitus
OK, I see.

Nothing against that view, since I too stated, that we might get another push up for 372 or a little bit higher eventually.

But out of my sight that makes the 3422 not a "significant" turning point, since it is only a turning point of a lower degree EW (retracement).

But that al depends on "perspective" LOL


But keep in mind:

when we get strong downward pressure (like in a wave 3, which we are waiting for), it is more likely than not, that the price will not revisit some pivots or levels to the upper side. Think back a few days ago where we had a similar situation where you awaited a move back to the DPP, but it did not happen (unless my memory plays games with me).
  • #7,327
  • Nov 19, 2011 4:15pm Nov 19, 2011 4:15pm
Markus, I agree the bigger wave 1 is unusual but the alternatives would be even more unusual. Your overshoot b wave doesn't work for me since I've never seen a b wave incorporate the wedge that I've shown to complete wave 4. I've seen countless c wave wedges to finish wave 4 with the euro. Regardless, I'm more interested in seeing when this correction can finish and with where I have 5 labeled gives a nice 3 wave correction. Hopefully that 1.3620 top is it and we see that big 3 of 3 we've been looking for for months!
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #7,328
  • Nov 19, 2011 5:36pm Nov 19, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting RamsesII
Markus, I agree the bigger wave 1 is unusual but the alternatives would be even more unusual. Your overshoot b wave doesn't work for me since I've never seen a b wave incorporate the wedge that I've shown to complete wave 4. I've seen countless c wave wedges to finish wave 4 with the euro. Regardless, I'm more interested in seeing when this correction can finish and with where I have 5 labeled gives a nice 3 wave correction. Hopefully that 1.3620 top is it and we see that big 3 of 3 we've been looking for for months!
:-)
  • #7,329
  • Nov 19, 2011 6:56pm Nov 19, 2011 6:56pm
Ok , many traders have been asking me what is my average w/l ratio ( win/loss ratio). Since I really want to keep things as simple as they can be, this is the post to refer to.

And yes Mercy, I concentrate on lower TFs as those are giving me good results, and I think from my personal experience if you know how to trade it that is a way to go. I always want to improve and get better, but so far I need to say no problems with consistency. I dont believe in longer TF trading, I believe in hard work all day long. I shoot to kill.

Those are Oct-Nov per month trading results. The answer to many questions.

Attached Image
  • #7,330
  • Nov 20, 2011 2:32am Nov 20, 2011 2:32am
Bond yields

http://markets.ft.com/RESEARCH/Marke...t-Bond-Spreads
  • #7,331
  • Nov 20, 2011 5:48am Nov 20, 2011 5:48am
Quoting T@rantula
Ok , many traders have been asking me what is my average w/l ratio ( win/loss ratio). Since I really want to keep things as simple as they can be, this is the post to refer to.

And yes Mercy, I concentrate on lower TFs as those are giving me good results, and I think from my personal experience if you know how to trade it that is a way to go. I always want to improve and get better, but so far I need to say no problems with consistency. I dont believe in longer TF trading, I believe in hard work all day long. I shoot to kill.

Those are Oct-Nov...
Often I read sonsense like this:
"A profitable forex system may have a win-loss ratio i.e. the proportion of winning trades to losing trades of say 0.8 (80%)".

Irrelevant Data for me. You could also make 80% false trades and you could make a big win end of month. You could make also 98% winning trades and could make a loss at your account.

Once more: Not every market situation have the same probability of a win and so you could go in with different risk.

The most significant relevant Data for me is: How much win did I have end of month at my account.

FXcube
  • #7,332
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:55am Nov 20, 2011 7:55am
Quoting Forexcube
Often I read sonsense like this:
"A profitable forex system may have a win-loss ratio i.e. the proportion of winning trades to losing trades of say 0.8 (80%)".

Irrelevant Data for me. You could also make 80% false trades and you could make a big win end of month. You could make also 98% winning trades and could make a loss at your account.

Once more: Not every market situation have the same probability of a win and so you could go in with different risk.

The most significant relevant Data for me is: How much win did I have...
I tend to agree with that. I dont believe in any sort of mechanical trading,robot trading etc... because if you trade mechanically you trade a SYSTEM, but if you trade PRICE ACTION on charts you are effectively trading real money that is fluctuating by big banks' decisions.

That is what i do. I never trade mechanically. I combine pivot points with manually drawn levels then apply a couple of indicators to indicate a probability of a decision. That is how we stack odds we stack probabilities. My leverage HARDLY exceeds 1:10 , its usually 1:5 so that is when I apply money management.

Success in forex business cannot be achieved by mechanical trading of a system, its only achievable by trading PRICE ACTION reflected from DECISIONS of BIG players. That is what i do
  • #7,333
  • Nov 20, 2011 8:02am Nov 20, 2011 8:02am
my mirror cycle projections for EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mirror.gif Size: 20 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #7,334
  • Nov 20, 2011 9:46am Nov 20, 2011 9:46am
Quoting T@rantula
I tend to agree with that. I dont believe in any sort of mechanical trading,robot trading etc... because if you trade mechanically you trade a SYSTEM, but if you trade PRICE ACTION on charts you are effectively trading real money that is fluctuating by big banks' decisions.

That is what i do. I never trade mechanically. I combine pivot points with manually drawn levels then apply a couple of indicators to indicate a probability of a decision. That is how we stack odds we stack probabilities. My leverage HARDLY exceeds 1:10 , its usually 1:5 so...

My sentiments exactly!
FXcube
  • #7,335
  • Nov 20, 2011 11:45am Nov 20, 2011 11:45am
Quoting bumapatria
my mirror cycle projections for EURUSD
Try to concentrate on lower TFs
  • #7,336
  • Nov 20, 2011 11:46am Nov 20, 2011 11:46am
Quoting Forexcube

My sentiments exactly!
FXcube
Yes as basically what we do is we trade big banks' decisions. That is also one of the reasons i never predict anything, real time analysis is always the way to go.
  • #7,337
  • Nov 20, 2011 11:49am Nov 20, 2011 11:49am
how bout this idea.. alternate B wave low? i'm starting to doubt we have strength for the 3 of 3 down on this run

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...67#post5150167
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #7,338
  • Nov 20, 2011 12:40pm Nov 20, 2011 12:40pm
Quoting T@rantula
I tend to agree with that. I dont believe in any sort of mechanical trading,robot trading etc... because if you trade mechanically you trade a SYSTEM, but if you trade PRICE ACTION on charts you are effectively trading real money that is fluctuating by big banks' decisions.

That is what i do. I never trade mechanically. I combine pivot points with manually drawn levels then apply a couple of indicators to indicate a probability of a decision. That is how we stack odds we stack probabilities. My leverage HARDLY exceeds 1:10 , its usually 1:5 so...


Hi, T.,

very true. Have found it since ever very strange when people told me to put up a precise "trading plan" (besides the part with the money management, on that I agree).

Trading mechanically will be, most of the time, a receipt for a disaster.

Good luck to you all in the coming week,

Markus
  • #7,339
  • Nov 20, 2011 12:56pm Nov 20, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting RamsesII
how bout this idea.. alternate B wave low? i'm starting to doubt we have strength for the 3 of 3 down on this run

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...67#post5150167


Hi Ramses,


was mountainbiking this afternoon. And when I rode the "waves" of the Taunus mountains this count came to my head too.

The reason for that thought was, that on a daily TF Stoch 5,3,3 is fairly overbought and one would like to see such momentum indis at the start of a 3 of 3 in overbought conditions. But on the other hand: look at Stoch for example at the 8th. of December 2009 and observe what followed. Other Cycle/momentum indis like UOS or MACD are at levels, where we can easily see much more downside.

From an EW point of view, your count on daily TF does not count very well, since all the downward waves look fairly impulsive whereas the upward waves do not.

Difficult, eh.....
  • #7,340
  • Nov 20, 2011 1:19pm Nov 20, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi, T.,

very true. Have found it since ever very strange when people told me to put up a precise "trading plan" (besides the part with the money management, on that I agree).

Trading mechanically will be, most of the time, a receipt for a disaster.

Good luck to you all in the coming week,

Markus
Yes, and thats why SCREENING TIME is one of THE MOST important things of successful forex trading. Its impossible for an inexperienced "trader" to trade the market successfully.

And anither thing..Trading the personal account and a hedge fund is a different job
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