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  • #41
  • Nov 14, 2011 7:53pm Nov 14, 2011 7:53pm
Quoting bumapatria
you know when i started. i got jealous of all the traders that profited when i lost. VERY jealous. that drove me to even wanna strive more to succeed.

first of all repair ur mindset.
here is a trade closed a second ago. forget the how or why i took them, imagien urself taking them and winning htem. u need more drive, more strive to even have chance at nailing this. get jealous. let this be the drive for u. people make millions out of forex, and losers lose a lot too. BE THE WINNER. Yes you can

You need to have a winning mindset....
i am jealous.. i not only jealous on winning traders
i am jealous of all my peers that born in rich family and got family fortune to inherit
i wan to earn more than them, and i wan to do it with my own hand
  • #42
  • Nov 14, 2011 7:53pm Nov 14, 2011 7:53pm
Quoting diceman555
hi sam,i think your being alittle hard on yourself,

i would say you have come alot further than you think.its only taken you 3 years to realise ,that most of what u read,and most of what you thought should work ,infact doesnot.and most importantly you except it.now you are free, mindfully to concentrate on price, knowing what dosnt work,why did it in fact fail,why did price not behave as my indis or understanding said it would,there is your solution,its ther u have answered your own question,watch price,

Thanks diceman
To be honest, it will not be fair if i said i learn absolutely nothing in 3 years

at least i know what ddint work, and why it didnt work..
  • #43
  • Nov 14, 2011 8:10pm Nov 14, 2011 8:10pm
I'm not sure we're on the same bus here.
Anyway, there is hope, if you find some of the helpful and rich 0.5 % here!
Good luck.

Quoting sam1741
I always thought that,
Those winner disappear because they have win a lot

buy some villas beside some beach, live a happy live, not bother to go to forum anymore.. or just going travel .. .

and maybe got 0.5% of them will come back forum and help the others.. cause they have alot of free time, after they find the right system for themselves..
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #44
  • Nov 15, 2011 4:28pm Nov 15, 2011 4:28pm
Quoting sam1741
i am jealous.. i not only jealous on winning traders
i am jealous of all my peers that born in rich family and got family fortune to inherit
i wan to earn more than them, and i wan to do it with my own hand
Sam,

Focus on one basic strategy, and make it your own. Like Johnny (post #3) says, read the 'Trading with deadly accuracy' thread, and watch the videos that wmd has posted. I use a similar approach, that seeks out confluences of different types of support and resistance.

Forget about money. Focus on becoming a good trader, and the profits will come as a matter of course. As wmd says "A successful trade is not determined by the result, its determined by having a sound reason for execution."

Practising the techniques in the deadly accuracy thread should give you a robust methodological edge. The rest of trading is risk management, patience and nerve. Discipline comes from having confidence, and confidence from experience, and the knowledge that you have a real edge.


The attached screenshot (EURUSD,M15) shows a possible 15:1 RR trade that I missed last night, because the entry missed getting filled by 1.4 pips.

Point 'B' is a triple top (actually quad, but you have to sell off the forming 4th high, in real time) that includes a climax volume candle that's also a flipover of another climax volume candle ('A'). For added confluence, the AUDUSD had also just bounced off a round number (1.0200) at the time. An entry with a 5 pip SL at this point, and then exited via the ATR based trailing stop that I use (magenta line) would have yielded a ~80 pip gain ('C') for 5 pips risk. These are the kind of entries that a knowledge of how S/R operates, can provide.

Point 'D' is a quad bottom that includes another climax vol candle. You could have bought at that point, but you'd be trading against the longer term downtrend.

Hopefully that should motivate you! Clear your mind of everything else that you've learned, and practise some of the ideas in wmd's thread. That's a great starting point, IMO.

Good luck,
David
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-11-16_1114.jpg Size: 186 KB
  • #45
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:28pm Nov 17, 2011 7:28pm
Quoting sam1741
I think the only house is the big player...
i guess i have to do more testing on my systems


over the year i have test many system
i also developed my own

Once i am so lost.. i even test a coin-toss system, just toss a coin and enter, set fix number of SL and TP.. that work for some time..
If you want to change your results then it sounds like you need to change your belief system. Financial markets are a casino. But YOU can determine the payoff to make it a profitable casino and put the numbers on your side.

How long did you run the coin toss system? If you did 20 trades with a tp twice the size of the sl, statistically speaking, you should have made money. Seriously though. .. how many trades did you do flipping a coin?

The hard part is dialing in the sl/tp. But once you get that part right, the math is so much in your favor you almost have to work to NOT make money. This requires new thinking on your part. Otherwise you're stuck doing the same thing.

In fact, I've been thinking about this for a while and I think I'm going to start a coin flip thread just to prove that it's all about risk/reward.
  • #46
  • Edited 9:53pm Nov 17, 2011 9:33pm | Edited 9:53pm
JR97 ...I've read some of your posts and have respect for your writing...
but this is untrue... a common fallacy.

Quoting JR97
If you did 20 trades with a tp twice the size of the sl, statistically speaking, you should have made money...
In fact, I've been thinking about this for a while and I think I'm going to start a coin flip thread just to prove that it's all about risk/reward.
Just because a coin flip decides whether you go long or short....
any "random" setup with a 2:1 risk reward ratio will near a 33% win rate and a 66% loss rate
...and of course you "lose" the spread on each trade.

The fact that any trade has to move twice as far for a win... is the deciding factor
... not just "Oh I should win half my bets because it's a 50/50 coin flip long/short."

If your entries show some "edge" AND you decide on a 2:1 R:R, you will win more than 33% and profit long term.
The coin flip won't do it.
(If it did work, we could just write a simple EA and wait for the money to "roll in"...)

There is also Van Tharp's coin toss experiment...but this was executed during strongly trending markets-
Hanover writes a great post about it (all of his writings are generally excellent, worth the read).
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=38050

Note: If you were insanely good with Exits, then perhaps you could devise a random entry system
and exit "correctly" or optimally in regards to current trend, volatility, etc.
It would take talent and the R:R would not be fixed but specifically unique to each trade and market conditions.
The "edge" would exist in the trade exit in these cases. (very hard to measure by itself)
  • #47
  • Nov 17, 2011 11:33pm Nov 17, 2011 11:33pm
Quoting sam1741
hi guys..
i need some words of wisdome.. or some words of motivation

After learning for 3 years +
i still feel myself like a piece of s___


After trying many system
And even develop my own system

everything still same from the begining,
the market as if know where i am,
the moment i enter long, it will went down
to make things worse, the market will laugh at me, come back at the place i long and make it as a resistance ( no prior resistance at that area for past year eventhough)
vice versa for short

i tried various methods.....
sam if u are feeling down coz u lost money recently (like in last week) then dont be sad,even pros lose money when market is uncertaain,wait until things get clearer in europe,then start trading the same strategy which u have develop and it was working for u,every thing will be on track.

even I feel down when my time tested proven strategy makes me down,but then i found out its just coz of market sentimeents and mess in world which makes a proven system also go wrong.

so in such time best is to sit on hands or to start using some short term strategy.
Trade responsiblypatience is the key/Swing trader
  • #48
  • Nov 18, 2011 7:36am Nov 18, 2011 7:36am
Quoting sam1741
hi guys..
i need some words of wisdome.. or some words of motivation

After learning for 3 years +
i still feel myself like a piece of s___


After trying many system
And even develop my own system

everything still same from the begining,
the market as if know where i am,
the moment i enter long, it will went down
to make things worse, the market will laugh at me, come back at the place i long and make it as a resistance ( no prior resistance at that area for past year eventhough)
vice versa for short

i tried various methods.....
I was not able to start making money until I FULLY understood what was making the market tick. VSA was an excellent start, but it still leaves your understanding of market concept (liquidity, inventory transition, imbalances, etc. etc.) in the dark. It took a lot of sacrifice to get where I am, almost three years of putting hours upon hours into understanding how and why certain things were playing out. I feel your pain, I really do, many hobbies and free-time were given up, and I've been down this same road. I would suggest getting a demo of x_trader, and start understanding how the orderbook works. Start understanding the concept behind liquidity. Then start looking for certain events that play out in the book at certain price levels . It's not going to make you rich overnight, but it's going to point you in the right direction. I personally don't know any six figure traders who trade with a strategy given away on a forum.
  • #49
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:34am Nov 24, 2011 2:34am
hi everyone

Today is another shit day for me..


In the morning ... i saw price going near a short term resistance
than yesterday major trend is up
so i short...
than price continue go up... one SL hit

Than i see short term is going up
so i long.. than straight away price went down
another SL hit


Then i see trendline break for uptrend
so i short..
then... it went up a lot... another SL hit


Then.. i saw it break medium term S/R.. up..
so i long..
then it quickly went down a lot (just now)
than.. another SL hit



Then when it went down
And i saw the medium term S/R.. maybe it just bounce on it
so i go short
Another SL hit



One day, five time
each time i enter, the price do something different


Am i gifted or what
EVERYTIME i enter... the price move to another way...
feel like crap
  • #50
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:47am Nov 24, 2011 2:47am
Quoting sam1741
hi everyone

Today is another shit day for me..


In the morning ... i saw price going near a short term resistance
than yesterday major trend is up
so i short...
than price continue go up... one SL hit

Than i see short term is going up
so i long.. than straight away price went down
another SL hit


Then i see trendline break for uptrend
so i short..
then... it went up a lot... another SL hit


Then.. i saw it break medium term S/R.. up..
so i long..
then it quickly went down a lot (just now)
than.. another SL hit



Then when it went down
And...
is the price much different to where it started at london open yesterday? some might say yes, but i would say a resounding no. if price hasn't particularly shifted from this time yesterday then what does that suggest about an overall trend versus a wobbly range?

you can't randomly try to play a range day as though it's a trend day.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #51
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:55am Nov 24, 2011 2:55am
Quoting nubcake
is the price much different to where it started at london open yesterday? some might say yes, but i would say a resounding no. if price hasn't particularly shifted from this time yesterday then what does that suggest about an overall trend versus a wobbly range?

you can't randomly try to play a range day as though it's a trend day.
in the beginning of the day how would we know it's a range day or a trend day

it is very common for EU to trend down one day and trend up another day .. or be in range for whole day

example in the morning i saw the larger TF trend is down
on the smaller TF, when it trending up, once it break trendline to down, i short,
than it goes up a lot and eat up my SL...




it seems like no matter what i do the market will just go the opposite way
  • #52
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:04am Nov 24, 2011 3:04am
PERFECT!!!!

half hours ago i just place SHORT

and now price goes up like nobody business
  • #53
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:16am Nov 24, 2011 3:16am
Quoting sam1741
in the beginning of the day how would we know it's a range day or a trend day

it is very common for EU to trend down one day and trend up another day .. or be in range for whole day
so what does that suggest in regards to looking at yesterdays trend versus looking at if it is inclined to trend in some direction.

Quote
example in the morning i saw the larger TF trend is down
on the smaller TF, when it trending up, once it break trendline to down, i short,
than it goes up a lot and eat up my SL...

if all highs were a pip lower than each other i'm sure you would still say the higher trend is down. so what? how strong is this supposed 'trend'?

Quote
it seems like no matter what i do the market will just go the opposite way

lol. of course. that's what it does. even more when you keep wanting to capitalize on trends that don't necessarily exist except in a subjective viewpoint. perhaps you should just call it quits for the day instead of punishing your account.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #54
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:28am Nov 24, 2011 3:28am
Quoting sam1741
in the beginning of the day how would we know it's a range day or a trend day

it is very common for EU to trend down one day and trend up another day .. or be in range for whole day
Hi Sam, i recommend "Amazing strategy" by Merlin.
  • #55
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:42am Nov 24, 2011 3:42am
take any strategy of them :

http://www.forexfactory.com/forumdis...c&sort=voteavg

then the key is : use it ONLY in the trend direction!

i hope it can bring you out from a mess

happy trading
  • #56
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:48am Nov 24, 2011 3:48am
Quoting sam1741
hi everyone

Today is another shit day for me..


In the morning ... i saw price going near a short term resistance
than yesterday major trend is up
so i short...
than price continue go up... one SL hit

Than i see short term is going up
so i long.. than straight away price went down
another SL hit


Then i see trendline break for uptrend
so i short..
then... it went up a lot... another SL hit


Then.. i saw it break medium term S/R.. up..
so i long..
then it quickly went down a lot (just now)
than.. another SL hit



Then...

Hi Sam!

Don't feel like crap...every single one of us has gone through the same/similar evolution as you're going through right now. An important thing? Stop losing money until you figure out a winning strategy.

Everyone needs to find their own way of trading, and there are many successful ways to trade. However, I believe there are fewer ways to successfully analyze currencies.

It sounds like you are chasing trades, I don't know about anyone else...but I went through the same thing. you need to break your bad habits by not repeatedly repeating them. Next time you get an urge to enter a bad trade (you know) put your hands up into the air...DO NOT TOUCH THAT KEYBOARD! You will learn as much by not taking bad trades, as you will from placing good ones.


(everyone has their own way to trade and analyze...this is what I see)
Okay, reading your thread it sounds like you're chasing movement in the market. A problem is, we do not trade movement, we trade technical levels. Movement only provides the momentum to reach these technical levels.

If a currency is ranging/consolidating, you cannot treat it as if you were entering a trending currency (like the other poster mentioned). You need to switch your tactics to scalping, different style of trading than trading a trend. Personally, right now I would just work on one strategy if I were you, either trending or scalping.

You need to read the candles more carefully, this is what tells you the story. What is this candle trying to do? What is it not able to do? What did the candles before this one tell me? It is just as important to notice what a candle has done (breaking support/resistance) as what the candle has not done (not reaching support/resistance). Let the candles tell you the story, read them like the words in a book.

But you also need to read each chapter, from the beginning. When we analyze, we do so from the large time frame down to the small. Start with Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 480, 240...you can add others if you want. The reason we start in the large timeframe is because the large time frame levels are more significant than any smaller levels. First, look at each time frame (starting with Monthly working down) and determin if the time frame is trending (which way), retracing (which way), or ranging (small or large). You do not want to enter a trade in (say) the 240 and get caught up in a larger time frame retracement. This should help give you a clearer picture of what the smaller time frames are doing and how the smaller time frames work toward the large time frame swings.

Any time a level is met in a time frame, you can expect a retracement. The larger the time frame, the larger the retracement. So read your candles, read you timeframes and let them tell you what the market is doing. If you break a level, wait for a retracement. If you fall short of a level, wait for confirmation. If you enter a trade on momentum and it had just hit a target, you're likely to get wiped out as it retraces.

Right now, it sounds as if you have some issues you need to work out (happens to all of us). I would recommend you stop trading your live account for a bit. Focus on one currency and one currency only. Get to know these levels and the characteristics of that currency. Analyze in the large time frame down to the small, taking note the direction of each. Do not place impulsive trades where you see movement and enter, throw your hands up in the air. Do not feel as if you need to place a trade, if you missed an entry...wait for the next opportunity. Read the candles and figure out what they are trying to tell you, read every chapter.

break bad habits, strengthen discipline and patience.

YOU CAN DO IT!


Dan
  • #57
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:26am Nov 24, 2011 4:26am
Quoting sam1741
hi everyone

Today is another shit day for me..


In the morning ... i saw price going near a short term resistance
than yesterday major trend is up
so i short...
than price continue go up... one SL hit

Than i see short term is going up
so i long.. than straight away price went down
another SL hit


Then i see trendline break for uptrend
so i short..
then... it went up a lot... another SL hit


Then.. i saw it break medium term S/R.. up..
so i long..
then it quickly went down a lot (just now)
than.. another SL hit



Then when it went down
And...
I m sorry i just had to say something.

Sam

HOW CAN YOU TRADE LIVE , WHEN YOU ARE STILL NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT YOUR STRATEGY AND HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEMO?

JUST HOW????
  • #58
  • Nov 24, 2011 7:08am Nov 24, 2011 7:08am
Quoting zamfir
I m sorry i just had to say something.

Sam

HOW CAN YOU TRADE LIVE , WHEN YOU ARE STILL NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT YOUR STRATEGY AND HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEMO?

JUST HOW????

well.... it is ashamed for me to say
i still using demo....
even after 3 years learning.. i still on demo


some ppl go live after 3 months learning.. and start earning real money..


I feel so down...
  • #59
  • Nov 24, 2011 7:15am Nov 24, 2011 7:15am
Quoting sam1741
well.... it is ashamed for me to say
i still using demo....
even after 3 years learning.. i still on demo


some ppl go live after 3 months learning.. and start earning real money..


I feel so down...
sam, stop demeaning urself, did u even read the threads i asked u too, to me its useless what ur doing ur reversing the whole process. i dont see u trying any harder sorry mate. ur attitude stays the same
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #60
  • Nov 24, 2011 7:19am Nov 24, 2011 7:19am
Quoting bumapatria
sam, stop demeaning urself, did u even read the threads i asked u too, to me its useless what ur doing ur reversing the whole process. i dont see u trying any harder sorry mate. ur attitude stays the same

yes.. i do read the threads.. and i do try out the methods...
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