Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1448 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,941
  • Nov 14, 2011 11:17pm Nov 14, 2011 11:17pm
*
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AREA.jpg Size: 38 KB
  • #28,942
  • Nov 14, 2011 11:37pm Nov 14, 2011 11:37pm
I've got the same problem... after a few days or weeks of successful trading... my focus shifts from understanding the markets/dancing the dance to thinking about purely money and my account size. My trading very quickly becomes very restricted i.e. lots of fear of losses and taking small profits and then eventually it just turns to blind luck trading and your above scenario ensues. I know when I'm in no state to trade, however simply being out of the market because of this I believe is wrong. You need to constantly learn and develop and by shying away from it will prevent both. As a result I'd rather make the losses, hopefully learn why I'm making the mistakes quickly and then move on rather than procrastinate.

I'm sure it's something to do with the fact that we are habitual creatures and that we are also poor at monitoring things for long periods of time. However I'm not sure of all the details or how to get around these problems. Still working on that.
  • #28,943
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:08am Nov 15, 2011 1:08am
Quoting fti
Hi Gefx,

yes markets behaving badly already with so many wildcards playing, peeps very risk adverse.
This terrain only punters dare thread.
I punt a little and made some pips on large quickies.
I am ok, except that energys very low and no stamina, also being told i getting become cranky old man.
Nothing much happening on my front, except many friends seems falling sick and 1 more family died.
I am very sickly, but beats dying, doesn't it?

I sure hope all the experts start putting their heads together find a solution for the euro.
Otherwise...
Sorry to hear about your friends and am very sorry about your family member. My kids sometimes think I am cranky old man, too, so perhaps we are similar in that way -- lol. Your energy levels concern me but you are right when you say it is better than the alternative. Take care and get your rest my friend.
  • #28,944
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:26am Nov 15, 2011 1:26am
There is equilibrium and opposite in all things, in Yin there is Yang, in Yang there is Yin. The defensive part of our MO is no stops and snowball to correct mistiming, to do this well we have to learn the opposites - how to take a timely loss before risk snowballs out of hand. Easier said than done, after reading and re-reading it is practice, practice, and more practice.


Rgs,
baifu
  • #28,945
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:31am Nov 15, 2011 1:31am
Quoting Baifu
There is equilibrium and opposite in all things, in Yin there is Yang, in Yang there is Yin. The defensive part of our MO is no stops and snowball to correct mistiming, to do this well we have to learn the opposites - how to take a timely loss before risk snowballs out of hand. Easier said than done, after reading and re-reading it is practice, practice, and more practice.


Rgs,
baifu
Hi Baifu. Very well said... interesting idea(principle). If i can add something... I observe such duality also in myself... sometimes good, sometimes bad(as a person). And the fighting between these twoo phenomenon. I think that is on anybody self to decide from which "sector" the person will be alive. Of being good and doing good / or bad and get energy from doing bad thinks to people... Regards
  • #28,946
  • Nov 15, 2011 3:52am Nov 15, 2011 3:52am
Cardiac cells 'heal heart damage'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-15693507
  • #28,947
  • Nov 15, 2011 4:31am Nov 15, 2011 4:31am
Quoting Fana
Dear Friends. I found one mistake that i think is important by myself. It is effect of lets say "PUSHING A CART" of acc equity.
- When i have succesfull line of trades, i just tend not to take proper DD like the good ingredience of trading, but only trying to push my equity higher... Steps up are smaller and smaller... Like my brain is telling me... "dont spoiul it, just one small piece... ". And of course after some time this must crash...
Fti, thats great you just slowly and pationly develop your...
Fana & atomic sheep++++

ok try understand this.
There is no way train yourself.
Training comes from practise and practise.
If you need think about it, then you not got it.
initial stages you need find the rhythm.
Afetr a while it becomes your second nature.
you just keep pushing forward.
Read abit for refresher.
If book is +, then you already got it right.
But terrain will change and you need big bag of tricks, which you suppose to learn from markets.

We always will make mistakes here and there.
ONLY never allow any mistakes be fatal.
if you off for some time you get rusty.
Then need repolishing.
no shortcuts.
as you dance profitably , you will realise what it takes.
so please no get nicky picky about mistakes.
After take pips profits.
Never revisit your trading, is waste of good energy.
you will find 100 ways could had made it better.
But thats not even relevant.
Just keep going and keep learning from market.
Your brain bicameral mind picks up things auto.
Do not interfere with that process.

Best spend time after profits, relax and regroup energies.
In the words of w buffet.
"perfection? is god's work, you 're human, surely will err."
so please stop banging head against wall.
if you read the thread, you will internalise if you are willing mind.
Otherewise you cannot get anything from it.

regards
  • #28,948
  • Edited 4:55am Nov 15, 2011 4:36am | Edited 4:55am
Quoting Zoran
Cardiac cells 'heal heart damage'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-15693507
Thanks Zoran, I'll wait for the prof get it right.
Could be soon i hope.
Meanwhile , still enjoying a good puff now and then.
Already accepted the fact.
Noone lives forever.
While still breath, i make point be best i can be everyday.
Living everyday like its the last, one day i will be right.

regards

By the way.
if anyone using firefox, DO NOT upgrade to 8
is buggy. Seems coders always break thing to improve.
In fact makes broken only.
  • #28,949
  • Nov 15, 2011 4:40am Nov 15, 2011 4:40am
Quoting fti
Fana & atomic sheep++++

ok try understand this.
There is no way train yourself.
Training comes from practise and practise.
If you need think about it, then you not got it.
initial stages you need find the rhythm.
Afetr a while it becomes your second nature.
you just keep pushing forward.
Read abit for refresher.
If book is +, then you already got it right.
But terrain will change and you need big bag of tricks, which you suppose to learn from markets.

We always will make mistakes here and there.
ONLY never allow any mistakes be fatal.
if...
Hi Fti. Thank you and yes. As i started trading in 2009, the progress in trading seems to me to have twoo aspects. 1. Is what i know i improved and sometimes(most of time) it is only greed... And 2. It is unconscious long-term slow changeing in mind. I think the no2 is crucial.
- This weekend i was doing some calculations and i found interesting "equilibrium"... If i can share it, i foung that SIZE of what we trade is the most important. I add picture, but please when it is wrong... excuse. regards

- please, only the idea from the picture... not that it is some rigid system or something...
- FTI, if you will say it is rigid i will delete it asap...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Statistical system.jpg Size: 67 KB
  • #28,950
  • Edited 5:45am Nov 15, 2011 5:06am | Edited 5:45am
Quoting Fana
Hi Fti. Thank you and yes. As i started trading in 2009, the progress in trading seems to me to have twoo aspects. 1. Is what i know i improved and sometimes(most of time) it is only greed... And 2. It is unconscious long-term slow changeing in mind. I think the no2 is crucial.
- This weekend i was doing some calculations and i found interesting "equilibrium"... If i can share it, i foung that SIZE of what we trade is the most important. I add picture, but please when it is wrong... excuse. regards

- please, only the idea from the picture......
yes, that is correct.
You learn but will not be concious that you had learned.
You change, but will not know what had changed.
Is because is a mind process, not thought process.
Mind works 10,000 times faster than thought.

MM size equlibrium dependson a combination factors.
Confort zone, Cap, mood, personality...................................
so there is not formulae.
As you start from smallest 1111 MM
you begin build your mindset intendum with your capabilities.
After a while you not even need think about it.
Its all reflex action from your mind.
Even how you handle the different terrains also is automatic.
You keep adjusting as your mind adjust to the markets rhythm.
You interrupt that and you become rigid, and unable to flow with he terrain.

Its your brain teaching itself what to do in situations.
Just need experience and trust yourself.
of course if you are new you need some BASICS guidelines of what things are foolish. After a while you no need be told. You know by instinct.

You work on ideas.
After that you throw the works away.
Then you do.
If your mind not remembers the experience, then is either irrerelavant, or does not work in real life.

Just analogy.
Is no use analyse a pretty girl.
Your mind knows one the moment it sees.
If you need think about it, then you just chasing your own tail.

Similarly in trading, the mind knows things very fast if you are in rhythm with whats happening or if you need realign.
With practice , this becomes your second nature.
If it causes you feel uncomfortable then , mind is telling you something.
Try listening to mind.

The voice of the mind is very soft, so not crowd it with too much thoughts.
It gets distracted and you cannot hear it.

If mind sees a pretty girl, and your thoughts keep telling mind is a monkey.
Mind will register that a pretty girl is a monkey.


regards

PS Do you know about training fleas?
if you put a flea in a jar.
the flea can jump right out.
if you block its jump with a lid.
after banging itself on the lid a few times.
when later you remove the lid, the flea learns.
and will no longer jump higher than where the lid was.
even if you had removed the lid.

i think someone coined a phrase for it.
is called muscle memory.
  • #28,951
  • Nov 15, 2011 5:15am Nov 15, 2011 5:15am
Quoting fti
yes, that is correct.
You learn but will not be concious that you had learned.
You change, but will not know what had changed.
Is because is a mind process, not thought process.
Mind works 10,000 times faster than thought.

MM size equlibrium dependson a combination factors.
Confort zone, Cap, mood, personality...................................
so there is not formulae.
As you start from smallest 1111 MM
you begin build your mindset intendum with your capabilities.
After a while you not even need think about it.
Its all reflex action...
Thank you very much Fti. You are the real friend. Regards
  • #28,952
  • Nov 15, 2011 5:20am Nov 15, 2011 5:20am
Ok time to see how low they want euro to be.
best book your seats early.
  • #28,953
  • Nov 15, 2011 5:25am Nov 15, 2011 5:25am
Quoting Fana
Thank you very much Fti. You are the real friend. Regards
Many times through out this thread it is mentioned, charts/pulse dictate size, you're learning. Also understand sometimes it's just not worth the risk, as no position is a position.

regards
  • #28,954
  • Nov 15, 2011 5:29am Nov 15, 2011 5:29am
err, not sell yet as maket found bottom.
best seats after a good rally.

and please no one even ask about levels.
remember i am very cranky already.

regards
  • #28,955
  • Nov 15, 2011 5:31am Nov 15, 2011 5:31am
Quoting auxesis
Many times through out this thread it is mentioned, charts/pulse dictate size, you're learning. Also understand sometimes it's just not worth the risk, as no position is a position.

regards


astonishing. aux.
your understanding of the thread is .

regards
  • #28,956
  • Nov 15, 2011 5:47am Nov 15, 2011 5:47am
After the news.... range? range? ... ... range?
  • #28,957
  • Nov 15, 2011 5:50am Nov 15, 2011 5:50am
Quoting Fana
After the news.... range? range? ... ... range?
so trade range range range.
whats the problem?

but remember things can change in a bash of the eyelid.
So be nimble and focused.

Market knows whats best.
Do you mean to say market have to conform to what you want it to do.
Even euro ministers , they have no control over market.
Best they can do is some lip service.
market decides what she wants toi do.


regards
  • #28,958
  • Nov 15, 2011 5:52am Nov 15, 2011 5:52am
Quoting fti
so trade range range range.
whats the problem?

but remember things can change in a bash of the eyelid.
So be nimble and focused.

regards
Of Course:-), Regards
- yep, i have some short scout there already...
  • #28,959
  • Nov 15, 2011 5:56am Nov 15, 2011 5:56am
ai ya maybe not.
market is heavy on top.

Got to send some feelers in the market otherwise can't feel her.
Plus , i am so dang rusty.
  • #28,960
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:55am Nov 15, 2011 7:55am
I heard that ECB is entering markets... strongly. Handling Italien debt under 7% again(before 1hour).
27 traders viewing now