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Supply and Demand zones NOT in retrospect

  • #41
  • Nov 13, 2011 3:55pm Nov 13, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting MCFly
I don't want to beat a dead horse but I have problems to distinguish between the "no trade" demand zone marked with number 2 in gabes post (post 31) and your drop base rally zone.
have you gone through the odds enhancers for number 2? If you did then you'd be asking a dumb question. You can see that this is not low on the higher time frame demand curve without even looking at the higher time frames. Also look at where supply is, do you have an easy minimum 2:1 reward risk (your RR will be different to others that's for you to decide, maybe seiden was looking for 3:1)?

Don't forget, sometimes even the best levels might get broken simply out of stop hunting, and they are often the best intraday trades to get in. Flexibility and anticipation is key.
  • #42
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:00pm Nov 13, 2011 4:00pm
Quoting PrymeTyme
Good Post Porkpie

Markets and Market Logics .. perhaps ?


cheers
Yep
  • #43
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:16pm Nov 13, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting Porkpie
have you gone through the odds enhancers for number 2? If you did then you'd be asking a dumb question. You can see that this is not low on the higher time frame demand curve without even looking at the higher time frames. Also look at where supply is, do you have an easy minimum 2:1 reward risk (your RR will be different to others that's for you to decide, maybe seiden was looking for 3:1)?

Don't forget, sometimes even the best levels might get broken simply out of stop hunting, and they are often the best intraday trades to get in. Flexibility...
I'm not a member of Sam Seiden's course. So no I don't know the odds enhancer number 2. I'm following the PIE thread and like you said the two styles are more or less different. But hey I prefer to ask "dumb" questions and learn something instead of shutting up.
  • #44
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:23pm Nov 13, 2011 4:23pm
As Porkpie has already explained, always look at higher time frames to see where we are in the bigger picture. E.g. if we are bouncing off a monthly/weekly demand zone the price will likely blast through your intraday supply zone - no matter how good that level looks like on a 5 min chart. I always look for major S/D zones on monthly/weekly/daily charts and only trade first pullback (retest) into those.
Example:
S&P chart and the recent rally. Price retraced at the monthly supply zone (previous support) at 1288.50. Made it 3 ticks above this level and dropped like a stone. I also look whether this zone was significant in the past (multiple touches..). These moves tend to be quite predictable if you know what levels to look at. Below are charts that should illustrate this particular example (weekly, daily + 1hour). That level was also 78.6% fib level (see daily chart).

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  • #45
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:51pm Nov 13, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting MCFly
I'm not a member of Sam Seiden's course. So no I don't know the odds enhancer number 2. I'm following the PIE thread and like you said the two styles are more or less different. But hey I prefer to ask "dumb" questions and learn something instead of shutting up.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post4053532 post 156
  • #46
  • Nov 14, 2011 12:48am Nov 14, 2011 12:48am
Quoting Porkpie
Don't be fooled. The OTA futures course for example, doesn't reveal that much more information from what is shown at FXstreet. The full odds enhancers have been posted on other threads on FF. As already mentioned, the main distinction between good levels is the profitability factor eg high or low on the higher time frame curve; how do prices leave the level; how do prices arrive at the level. Don't make this more complicated for yourselves. Its basic stuff. Money management is more important. Yet again people focusing too hard on the wrong stuff...
What is complicated in my posts. I do not use any indicators at all. I have followed Sam's rules. All i m saying is to look for R-B-D and D-B-R patterns. what is so complicated in this?. Infact , this is what Sam preaches.
  • #47
  • Nov 14, 2011 7:31am Nov 14, 2011 7:31am
In CME FX futures we can SEE order flow and determine WHERE open interest held positions were initiated (cumulative delta volume). Seeing these price levels of buying and selling zones has a substancial advantage over spot Forex trading. In Forex we don't have all the trading on a central exchange and how many of you have access to Forex volumes? ;-)

REAL potential support and resistance comes from zones of held inventory (open interest - positions still held by large liquidity participants). Where price was in the past means nothing if the newly initiated trading activity (new open interest) can't be seen through proper order flow tracking. In spot Forex, all a trader can do is draw horizontal lines from previous key price pivots and then hope those lines mean something when price returns. Hope is a tough foundation to trade upon imo, and any new tools offering real order flow tracking in the spot market would be very nice!
  • #48
  • Nov 16, 2011 2:17am Nov 16, 2011 2:17am
Quoting LivestreamFX
In CME FX futures we can SEE order flow and determine WHERE open interest held positions were initiated (cumulative delta volume). Seeing these price levels of buying and selling zones has a substancial advantage over spot Forex trading. In Forex we don't have all the trading on a central exchange and how many of you have access to Forex volumes? ;-)

REAL potential support and resistance comes from zones of held inventory (open interest - positions still held by large liquidity participants). Where price was in the past means nothing if the newly...
Sorry, but thats just a load of bull.
  • #49
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:42am Nov 25, 2011 8:42am
Quoting Porkpie
Sorry, but thats just a load of bull.
Over a week with no response. I guess Live is dead?

Funny though why didn't he/she choose LiveSteamFutures as a nic? Too many letters?
  • #50
  • Nov 25, 2011 10:41am Nov 25, 2011 10:41am
Quoting Porkpie
Sorry, but thats just a load of bull.
It is the reality - you can't see where held open interest was initiated (and is or is not still holding) in the Forex market unless you have access to realtime order flow. In the CME FX instruments we have realtime BID/ASK differential information through Cumulative Delta Tools - period!

Sometimes you don't know what you don't know. BTW, the large liquidity participants who trade futures constantly track open interest and where is held inventory - to know what pricing levels hold any available supply of inventory and how much. Large commercial participants are not using fibs and MACD's to make their trades.
  • #51
  • Nov 25, 2011 10:47am Nov 25, 2011 10:47am
Quoting SunTrader
Over a week with no response. I guess Live is dead?

Funny though why didn't he/she choose LiveSteamFutures as a nic? Too many letters?
You can trade very precise FX spot market action from trade signals generated off CME FX supply & demand order flow tracking - I do it all the time.

BTW, there was very strong LONG accumulation in the Euro today at the 3220's - we had an very nice 70 pip bounce off that supply & demand event! If I was only watching spot today, I would have never seen the accumulation realtime.
  • #52
  • Nov 25, 2011 11:25am Nov 25, 2011 11:25am
I prefer to trade with the flow, which is down and has been weeks, if not months depending on how you want to categorize it.

But bounce was to be expected - came within 5 pips of S3 pivots level - oversold.
  • #53
  • Nov 25, 2011 11:41am Nov 25, 2011 11:41am
Quoting SunTrader
I prefer to trade with the flow, which is down and has been weeks, if not months depending on how you want to categorize it.

But bounce was to be expected - came within 5 pips of S3 pivots level - oversold.
Yes, I agree the macro flow has been down for some time - you should have seen all the SHORT inventory that was accumulated leading up to the multi-week Euro sell off. There has been some great levels to sell into SHORT accumulation zones on the way down too. I like seeing what rallies to fade in a macro downtrend - the same areas that larger liquidity participants are selling into themselves.
  • #54
  • Nov 25, 2011 11:54am Nov 25, 2011 11:54am
No MACD although I do use fibs but here is also what I saw on that low earlier besides S3 zone - a TD Buy Sequential 13. If it is good enough for Steve Cohen it is good enough for me. I know I said I don't contra-trend trade but sometimes rules are made to be broken:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55
  • Nov 25, 2011 12:04pm Nov 25, 2011 12:04pm
Sounds great - you and stevie have fun! Tell him to watch those odd trade room activities!!!
  • #56
  • Nov 25, 2011 12:27pm Nov 25, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting LivestreamFX
Sounds great - you and stevie have fun! Tell him to watch those odd trade room activities!!!
I know, no insider dirt here.
  • #57
  • Sep 15, 2013 11:41am Sep 15, 2013 11:41am
Quoting LivestreamFX
{quote} You can trade very precise FX spot market action from trade signals generated off CME FX supply & demand order flow tracking - I do it all the time. BTW, there was very strong LONG accumulation in the Euro today at the 3220's - we had an very nice 70 pip bounce off that supply & demand event! If I was only watching spot today, I would have never seen the accumulation realtime.
This is an old post, but just by curiosity, LiveStreamFX, could you give us some links on how we, I can learn more on how to spot accumulation and direction on a chart.

Any input appreciated

Martin
  • #58
  • Last Post: Mar 9, 2024 10:15am Mar 9, 2024 10:15am
Quoting Gabe2004
It is my understanding that when price returns to a S/D zone it would, in most likely hood retrace...
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Not always and not necessarily. Price can break the Zone.
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