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Market Predictability - Technical Signals

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 11:33am Nov 6, 2011 11:14am | Edited 11:33am
in my experience the best option in regards to trading is a purely technical trading system. i have designed trading systems using different technical aproaches.there is a difference between technical analysis and technical signals. i don't make decisions on technical analysis only on proven technical signals. using statistics and live trading i know that they work. what i don't know is why they work. so my question is this: why do you think technical signals work? this forum has a lot of market loosers and negative people. if you're like that please stay away from this thread.
my thoughts regarding technical signals is that they are some form of market psychology which at times becomes predictable. what's your thoughts on this?
  • #2
  • Edited 7:57am Nov 7, 2011 2:36am | Edited 7:57am
Quoting deltatrade
this forum has a lot of market loosers and negative people. if you're like that please stay away from this thread.
Actually most people here are rather uptight I've noticed, or did you mean losers?
Time hides Nothing
  • #3
  • Nov 7, 2011 2:45am Nov 7, 2011 2:45am
lol. Thank you for pointing out 'loosers', Cindy.

T/A or anything of the sort is market voodoo.
  • #4
  • Nov 7, 2011 2:58am Nov 7, 2011 2:58am
If the bus leaves too many orders then price will be back to pick em up.
  • #5
  • Nov 7, 2011 3:03am Nov 7, 2011 3:03am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
If the bus leaves too many orders then price will be back to pick em up.
At which point you can catch the train?
Time hides Nothing
  • #6
  • Nov 7, 2011 3:13am Nov 7, 2011 3:13am
Be buddies with a conductor? lol
  • #7
  • Nov 7, 2011 7:36am Nov 7, 2011 7:36am
& talk to the nice chick & ask her if u could ride along with her to her destination

Sir deltatrade,
going along that same line... to answer your question... get to know the ins & outs of the nice chick
i hope my answer's easy & not cryptic for u
  • #8
  • Nov 7, 2011 8:30am Nov 7, 2011 8:30am
these are not the responses i was looking for.
  • #9
  • Nov 7, 2011 8:59am Nov 7, 2011 8:59am
EMERALD EYES

this post is spot on,If the bus leaves too many orders then price will be back to pick em up.
  • #10
  • Nov 7, 2011 11:28pm Nov 7, 2011 11:28pm
Quoting deltatrade
these are not the responses i was looking for.
u seem to have overlooked that we might have actually responded to your question/s
& yes, the market is at times predictable... hence, not really random
  • #11
  • Nov 8, 2011 12:44am Nov 8, 2011 12:44am
I thought you were actually not going to delete a post Cindy!

Delta.. I hate 'trading' analogies (everyones got 'em) but envision trying to predict the outcome of a sporting event by mapping past data in a chart formation of team stats, previous match-ups, points by period, general stuff like that.
On the other hand.. try to predict the same outcome by reading analyst commentary, injuries, roster changes, weather conditions, etc. You'll notice that though its always the same team, its an ever-changing (dynamic) entity which general past data can't/won't predict the outcome. It may look that way though..
  • #12
  • Nov 8, 2011 12:52am Nov 8, 2011 12:52am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
I thought you were actually not going to delete a post Cindy!

Delta.. I hate 'trading' analogies (everyones got 'em) but envision trying to predict the outcome of a sporting event by mapping past data in a chart formation of team stats, previous match-ups, points by period, general stuff like that.
On the other hand.. try to predict the same outcome by reading analyst commentary, injuries, roster changes, weather conditions, etc. You'll notice that though its always the same team, its an ever-changing (dynamic) entity which...
Sorry man. I tried to keep all that was relevant. I just hate talking at people. I like to give my opinion but sometimes I re read it and just get the urge to delete. Old habits die hard. Sorry, Twee hates me for it. That Bus coming back analogy has been on my mind the past day. I'm guessing you're talking about the vacuum?

Wow man just remembering why I Vouched for you. Nice posts.
Time hides Nothing
  • #13
  • Nov 8, 2011 1:33am Nov 8, 2011 1:33am
lol. I edit mine fast so it doesn't show the 'edited 00:00' on the bottom. I hate that. I appreciated your comment on my profile before you deleted it. Green spandex guy is only temporarily gone. hahaha


I wasn't necessarily thinking about the order vacuum concept, but that is one of the ways for price to quickly return to consume orders. It can easily happen during times of low liquidity (like now.. so I've heard) also.

ex. When a 'support' line breaks you're going to have long traders bailing via sell stops, momentum traders selling via market orders, then some latent buying demand to halt the falling price at the bottom. Orders within that range are then cleared by doing so, and an imbalance of market buy orders fills that 'vacuum' all the way back to the break.
OR there is a scenario like the 1.2125 level on E/Chf where as large bids are knowingly sitting and invite sellers to off their positions in to.

off-subject I know..
  • #14
  • Nov 8, 2011 1:43am Nov 8, 2011 1:43am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
l

OR there is a scenario like the 1.2125 level on E/Chf where as large bids are knowingly sitting and invite sellers to off their positions in to.

off-subject I know..
Your post bring back memory of the old thread
  • #15
  • Nov 8, 2011 9:06am Nov 8, 2011 9:06am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
I thought you were actually not going to delete a post Cindy!

Delta.. I hate 'trading' analogies (everyones got 'em) but envision trying to predict the outcome of a sporting event by mapping past data in a chart formation of team stats, previous match-ups, points by period, general stuff like that.
On the other hand.. try to predict the same outcome by reading analyst commentary, injuries, roster changes, weather conditions, etc. You'll notice that though its always the same team, its an ever-changing (dynamic) entity which general...
in weather conditions we have autumn , spring, winter and summer. by looking at statistics i can make general predictions about those weather seasons . i can say for example that in that time interval we can expect winter conditions to come. here is an example of how knowing the statistics can predict future with a certain degree of confidence.
if a trading system works since the begining of the stock market than that means we can assume with a degree of confidence that that's how markets work. all that you can do is trade until the markets begin to act otherwise(maybe next month, maybe during your lifetime, maybe never).
a lot of people say that markets change over time. yes. volatility is a key factor that is certain to change. but from the perspective of the winning system they have never changed.
  • #16
  • Nov 8, 2011 9:16am Nov 8, 2011 9:16am
i think there's little room to predict... by the time the market changes, and your system doesn't work anymore, you could change to different system, but by that time, it can already be changed again. etc. etc. we only see what has already happened at the screen, right?
  • #17
  • Nov 8, 2011 9:34am Nov 8, 2011 9:34am
Quoting ido370
i think there's little room to predict... by the time the market changes, and your system doesn't work anymore, you could change to different system, but by that time, it can already be changed again. etc. etc. we only see what has already happened at the screen, right?
lol. you can see the car coming for you , you jump but of course you see the second car and you jump again ... but no luck ! you're dead! X-D
  • #18
  • Nov 9, 2011 12:33am Nov 9, 2011 12:33am
Quoting deltatrade
ii have designed trading systems using different technical aproaches.there is a difference between technical analysis and technical signals. i don't make decisions on technical analysis only on proven technical signals.
Hey Deltatrade am interested in exactly what you mean by this. What is the difference? Wrote a big reply the other day but scrapped it. This was my main question though. Cheers
Time hides Nothing
  • #19
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:52am Nov 9, 2011 8:52am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Deltatrade am interested in exactly what you mean by this. What is the difference? Wrote a big reply the other day but scrapped it. This was my main question though. Cheers
well the technical analyst tries to predict future movements based on price action/indicators on any given time and situation. tehnical signals do not apear all the time . the term analysis also implies a great deal of discretion. when i say technical signals i refer to at least a specific entry if not an exit point based on price action/indicators.when i say that in order to make a trade we wait for rsi to cross above 50 then every 100 traders will make the same judgement and take the same action. if 100 traders make technical analysis on a specific chart you will have a lot of different views. altough there are a lot of exceptions technical analysts don't have a serious statistic regarding their analysis. when i enter in a trade i can tell you exactly what is the chance of a winning trade or a break even trade.
  • #20
  • Edited 6:50pm Nov 9, 2011 6:31pm | Edited 6:50pm
Quoting deltatrade
well the technical analyst tries to predict future movements based on price action/indicators on any given time and situation. tehnical signals do not apear all the time . the term analysis also implies a great deal of discretion. when i say technical signals i refer to at least a specific entry if not an exit point based on price action/indicators.when i say that in order to make a trade we wait for rsi to cross above 50 then every 100 traders will make the same judgement and take the same action. if 100 traders make technical analysis...
OK thanks for the reply but again... What exactly is the difference? I'm guessing you're talking about combining your T/A with current market sentiment? If that's the case I'm 100% with you, although sometimes you don't even need T/A, just price is enough. Anyway.
Time hides Nothing
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