Can You Predict BIG Candles!? | Forex Factory

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Can You Predict BIG Candles!?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 27, 2011 8:26am Oct 27, 2011 8:26am
PEOPLE!!! attention!!! i wanted to ask.. is it possible to know when market will move +50pips??? dont care in which direction.. i just want to know.. why and when market sometimes make big candles (+50pip)?
  • #2
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:57am Oct 27, 2011 8:57am
When you are dealing with Forex, you cannot ignore the importance and impact of a methodology involving Technical analysis of the market. It is important to predict future price trends from available price and volume data.


Big Candles will give you the ability to pinpoint a change of direction. If you use other technical methods as supplemental tools it can generate enormous amount of wealth for you in Forex trading.


Hope this helps.... have a happy Trading
  • #3
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:54am Oct 27, 2011 9:54am
so its impossible to predict when market will make big move (~50pip) (dont care in which direction)?

sorry for my bad english
  • #4
  • Oct 27, 2011 2:21pm Oct 27, 2011 2:21pm
Quoting Raa
PEOPLE!!! attention!!! i wanted to ask.. is it possible to know when market will move +50pips??? dont care in which direction.. i just want to know.. why and when market sometimes make big candles (+50pip)?
when a big announcement happens like today that greece's debt will be cut and that the EU has now a billion dollar parachute, then you can count that the market will make a + 50 pip move.
  • #5
  • Oct 28, 2011 12:12pm Oct 28, 2011 12:12pm
I think such movement can occur when markets are hit by а very important piece of information either ecomonical or political. You can just read through an economic calendar to find out events which can produce the highest volatility (NFP, GDP etc) and wait. Good luck.
  • #6
  • Oct 28, 2011 8:54pm Oct 28, 2011 8:54pm
Yes, you can use tech indicators to point the way and usually, big candles on some quick movement will occur anytime a fiscal policy update is announced or some other newsmaker hits the screen..
  • #7
  • Edited Oct 29, 2011 1:00am Oct 28, 2011 11:20pm | Edited Oct 29, 2011 1:00am
Quoting greatpips
usually, big candles on some quick movement will occur anytime a fiscal policy update is announced or some other newsmaker hits the screen..
sometimes (rarely) there are signs before the event (whether it's officially expected or not) which are obvious after the fact but it's difficult to spot them in the making without enough screentime.. however, the patterns are pretty objective.

basically it's a dump-and-pump orderflow mechanism, the market makes a small wave with a roundish top, then it goes down with force but it's kinda smooth (not jerky but 'careful' pip-by-pip movement without much upticks), makes a flat candle with no lower wick (usually on top or bottom of the hour).. if you see this scenario (pics 1, 2) and then the next candle starts to explode, it's a high probability long trade.. a buy stop just above the preceding round peak is better than chasing the spike. i never fade this kind of spikes blindly, they happen to have follow-through.

Pic 3 shows another variant when there is a small but specific move up (full of tension, like a spring) before the final pump. The chart depicts a huge move - EU's reaction to SNB EC peg - but the dealers apparently 'worked' on it hours before. Pattern-wise, this type is more likely to appear in 1min TF with much smaller timespan and pip size (very frequently used in off session stop hunting). usually the 1min are not worth an entry (too quick and not too reliable) but once they fully play out, they are relatively safe to fade - stop loss just above the spike is ok (they already got what they wanted). if they happen at tops or bottoms at the right time, they are great counter entries because the market is probably headed the other way.

why do i mention longs (meaning xxx/USD).. funny thing is, i have seen a lot of these patterns but almost always in bullish moves - against the USD.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #8
  • Nov 3, 2011 2:48am Nov 3, 2011 2:48am
Quoting Raa
so its impossible to predict when market will make big move (~50pip) (dont care in which direction)?

sorry for my bad english
Impossible? Why? We surely can't predict all market maneuver, but in some special case we can, not just 50 pips, but more.
  • #9
  • Nov 3, 2011 9:15pm Nov 3, 2011 9:15pm
No one can predict the future. Just follow the trend....or swim WITH the tide, not against it and you will find a lot of easy, low stress 50pip moves
  • #10
  • Nov 8, 2011 7:49pm Nov 8, 2011 7:49pm
http://www.forex-fxtrader.com/tools/...ntinuation.pdf
  • #11
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:16am Nov 9, 2011 4:16am
Quoting Raa
PEOPLE!!! attention!!! i wanted to ask.. is it possible to know when market will move +50pips??? dont care in which direction.. i just want to know.. why and when market sometimes make big candles (+50pip)?
I can't understand the PA in E/U too.
  • #12
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:15am Nov 9, 2011 10:15am
Quoting Raa
PEOPLE!!! attention!!! i wanted to ask.. is it possible to know when market will move +50pips??? dont care in which direction.. i just want to know.. why and when market sometimes make big candles (+50pip)?
Of course it is possible. Look at FF calendar.
  • #13
  • Nov 10, 2011 6:08am Nov 10, 2011 6:08am
Quoting merlintrade
Of course it is possible. Look at FF calendar.
+1
  • #14
  • Nov 11, 2011 7:38am Nov 11, 2011 7:38am
It's very easy to make money from long candles but you will have to use an EA, you'll also need a decent broker. You measure the deviation from the last candle and then trigger a reversal trade which you setup using filters (directional force). The market will always retrace from a big candle and that's how you make money, from the reaction to the event. This eliminates the need to predict anything.

I've setup my own EA that does this, it's one of the few profitable trading strategies that I have, but it does work. It's my holy grail so to speak. You can get around 50 pips a day profit on the EUR/USD's long candles.
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  • #15
  • Nov 12, 2011 10:53pm Nov 12, 2011 10:53pm
Yes, you can see big candle movements and usually these are themed to coincide with financial news, newsmakers [euro bailout, Fed announcements, etc].
  • #16
  • Feb 18, 2012 11:07am Feb 18, 2012 11:07am
Quoting leerees
It's very easy to make money from long candles but you will have to use an EA, you'll also need a decent broker. You measure the deviation from the last candle and then trigger a reversal trade which you setup using filters (directional force). The market will always retrace from a big candle and that's how you make money, from the reaction to the event. This eliminates the need to predict anything.

I've setup my own EA that does this, it's one of the few profitable trading strategies that I have, but it does work. It's my holy grail so to speak....
Leerees , which broker do you use, I believe it is a reliable one ( no sl hunting etc)
estote parati
  • #17
  • Feb 18, 2012 4:56pm Feb 18, 2012 4:56pm
Quoting Raa
PEOPLE!!! attention!!! i wanted to ask.. is it possible to know when market will move +50pips??? dont care in which direction.. i just want to know.. why and when market sometimes make big candles (+50pip)?
Raa,

It is possible to predict when a market will move 50 pips and its even possible to know which direction it will move in.

Staring at the chart is only a small part of the puzzle you have to have a good knowledge of Microstructure along with with a knowledge of how the informed traders trade.

So yes it is possible but its not as easy as x=y.

Hope this helps.
  • #18
  • Oct 25, 2015 3:08am Oct 25, 2015 3:08am
No, you can't predict big candles. Neither can you predict small ones.
  • #19
  • Dec 29, 2017 7:45am Dec 29, 2017 7:45am
Quoting Raa
PEOPLE!!! attention!!! i wanted to ask.. is it possible to know when market will move +50pips??? dont care in which direction.. i just want to know.. why and when market sometimes make big candles (+50pip)?
Yes, then you can follow the high voltage news session like NFP, FOMC! You may even get more than 50 pips! On the other hand, London trading session is much active session than Asian; so you also can use this trading session! But, honestly you are not going to get 50+ pips in every candle! By the way, may I know your trading plan with the big trading candles?
  • #20
  • Dec 29, 2017 10:04am Dec 29, 2017 10:04am
The only time such movements can be predicted with any amount of certainty is when you know there will be a major economic event which can be checked on an economic calendar.
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