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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,861
  • Edited 4:43pm Nov 7, 2011 4:15pm | Edited 4:43pm
Quoting Baifu
Hi Pax,

To watch PA behaviour at S&R levels is not prediction even if we know before hand where they are. Fib levels are not important to me, I have said they are self fulfilling prophecies and 1/4, 1/3, 1/2, etc are good enough gauges. However since all charting software provide this tool, it is very handy to pull a line and see where the zones are and whether there is confluence with pivots, peaks and valleys, yesterdays highs and lows etc etc. Okay may be fti does not look at pivots, yesterday's high and low but he talks about hip and lop though,...
hi Baifu, i agree that they have selffullfilling prophecies... many people look at it... and it works many times... i could enter my scout there or an other small transaction... but i used to enter desperatate rescue attempts there because i had to go to work.... if the orders above break out... i had to cut a big loss.... i am talking about my personal experience. and a bad NO LOSS mentality
also with my latest obsession... i think ok ... stops are triggered the vacuuem gets filled and i enter... no way breaking news, .... fucking greek president suggests a referendum..... trend change!

and with berlusconi... greece... israel/iran etc... be carefull.
edit~ about the NO LOSS we should remember what you said DAMAGE CONTROL!!

regards,pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,862
  • Edited Nov 8, 2011 5:04am Nov 7, 2011 4:40pm | Edited Nov 8, 2011 5:04am
before i go to sleep 2 clips ... clip one how it used to be,,, and two how feels to me now.. hope you enjoy the music, hope you can hear the bass.

good evening, pax

Inserted Video


Inserted Video
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,863
  • Nov 8, 2011 4:39am Nov 8, 2011 4:39am
Anyone making money atm? Or am I the only one who can't seem to get anything right atm? Funny how it goes from being somewhat right and make a good return to being totally wrong all the time. Sure mindset has something to do with it, but I can say that no such thing as luck. On bad days, everything is bad.
  • #28,864
  • Nov 8, 2011 5:01am Nov 8, 2011 5:01am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Anyone making money atm? Or am I the only one who can't seem to get anything right atm? Funny how it goes from being somewhat right and make a good return to being totally wrong all the time. Sure mindset has something to do with it, but I can say that no such thing as luck. On bad days, everything is bad.

Don't feel like the lone ranger...lol....this market is chopping a lot of us up.
  • #28,865
  • Edited 5:33am Nov 8, 2011 5:15am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Anyone making money atm? Or am I the only one who can't seem to get anything right atm? Funny how it goes from being somewhat right and make a good return to being totally wrong all the time. Sure mindset has something to do with it, but I can say that no such thing as luck. On bad days, everything is bad.
hi atomic,

i don't know if you like music or listned to the last clip above?? i editted the stupid joke out and i think now the market quiet and tension is building... like the break after 4.45.... especialy the daily yenchart looks scary to me....
trade well and carefull
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,866
  • Nov 8, 2011 5:32am Nov 8, 2011 5:32am
I usually trade with music in the background... usually something quite heavy for most of the tastes on this forum however . So you're saying markets are quiet at the moment? I don't think I can argue with that but the chop looks volatile enough to be able to make money off but as soon as you try to surf, you drown. I lost a record amount today so far , but alas... I can't stop myself because I can't bare to be out of the market. Every time I close the ticker, I get an urge to get back to watching the prices and then urges to enter trades! Looking at that balance is so painful! Ah well... the good news is that at least it's extra experience under the belt. Not sure how much I've learned tonight but certainly I've lost enough to have the pain outweigh further curiosity! With every day I get the feeling that I've seen it all by now and every day I'm surprised lol.
  • #28,867
  • Nov 8, 2011 5:41am Nov 8, 2011 5:41am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
I usually trade with music in the background... usually something quite heavy for most of the tastes on this forum however . So you're saying markets are quiet at the moment? I don't think I can argue with that but the chop looks volatile enough to be able to make money off but as soon as you try to surf, you drown. I lost a record amount today so far , but alas... I can't stop myself because I can't bare to be out of the market. Every time I close the ticker, I get an urge to get back to watching the prices and then urges to enter trades! Looking...
sorry to hear about your loss... i edited about the daily yen chart... litlle less scary chart EUR USD .. there are a couple of fundemental things going on... when one of them starts rolling it can wipe you out.... if you have a bad loss today.... look again at the daily yenchart!! be safe and quick damage control when it REALY starts against you ok
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,868
  • Nov 8, 2011 5:46am Nov 8, 2011 5:46am
Oh the yen has been something that I haven't looked at in a while in terms of wanting to trade. Mainly trading E/U. Looks like yesterdays EUR/CHF is unwinding today and it's holding down the EUR/USD. I'm guessing the CHF crosses are getting attention at the moment because of what's happening with JPY?
  • #28,869
  • Nov 8, 2011 5:56am Nov 8, 2011 5:56am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Oh the yen has been something that I haven't looked at in a while in terms of wanting to trade. Mainly trading E/U. Looks like yesterdays EUR/CHF is unwinding today and it's holding down the EUR/USD. I'm guessing the CHF crosses are getting attention at the moment because of what's happening with JPY?
CHF maybe intervention again... to dangerous to trade for me!!

NO i mean how very small the ranges and the small doji candles on the daily charts (the majors!!) are... it only takes one politician to talk or push a button and move the markets... i could be next week or as we speak... NOW!!!

i hope you understand... i have to go to work now

regards. pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,870
  • Edited 8:12am Nov 8, 2011 7:37am | Edited 8:12am
i am not trading but if i was today i would be carefull because something like this
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7A61KA20111108

i don't know how late the vote is expected... if someone knows please share and if i find out i'll edit.
Italian lawmakers were expected to gather at about 1500 GMT on approving the Italian state financing bill, usually a procedural vote but one which has come sharply into focus amid the current debt crisis. (BBC)

CNBC says... expected in 20 minutes time ...14.30 GMT
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,871
  • Nov 8, 2011 9:59am Nov 8, 2011 9:59am
I take it Berlusconi's resignation is a positive sign? No idea what sort of ideas the opposition have so if someone knows this, would be nice to learn of their views on the issues.
  • #28,872
  • Nov 8, 2011 12:02pm Nov 8, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
I take it Berlusconi's resignation is a positive sign? No idea what sort of ideas the opposition have so if someone knows this, would be nice to learn of their views on the issues.
i don't know if he resigns... it was the expectation but in this thread we try not to expect anything ... only trade what happens... my post about it has one reason alone... to warn some people who were not aware and had a big position.... so they can take some risk off and see what happens.

italian defence misister comment on berslusconi resigning:
"anything can happen" (cnbc)

regards
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,873
  • Edited 1:36pm Nov 8, 2011 12:52pm | Edited 1:36pm
he will resign when the bill is passed (something like that ??)
no... when the 2012 budget is passed ??

it's not clear...

edit: ooh i now hear not every thing in the 2011 budget is passed lol ...
still.... be nimble
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,874
  • Nov 8, 2011 1:04pm Nov 8, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting j-pax
i don't know if he resigns... it was the expectation but in this thread we try not to expect anything ... only trade what happens... my post about it has one reason alone... to warn some people who were not aware and had a big position.... so they can take some risk off and see what happens.

italian defence misister comment on berslusconi resigning:
"anything can happen" (cnbc)

regards
I think those who trade with big positions they are aware of the news events. I don't do big position but I am never worried much about news as I trade chart.
  • #28,875
  • Nov 8, 2011 1:14pm Nov 8, 2011 1:14pm
Quoting simpleman
I think those who trade with big positions they are aware of the news events. I don't do big position but I am never worried much about news as I trade chart.
i think we should not discuss SIZE again... i tried to explain...
and not worried about news ??... news will teach you one day. my guess it will be a friday
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,876
  • Edited Nov 9, 2011 6:15am Nov 8, 2011 4:01pm | Edited Nov 9, 2011 6:15am
i'll not dissapoint and post a song.... the main theme is: if you believe in things you dont understand you WILL suffer

Inserted Video


regards, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,877
  • Nov 8, 2011 6:28pm Nov 8, 2011 6:28pm
Talk about excessive exuberance.
Abused.
Absolutely, by the lilith fair.
Oops no more bunga bunga jokes, sean L
Now only sarong parti jokes left.

http://www.businessinsider.com/berlu...photos-2011-11

bunga vs sarong
Attached Images
  • #28,878
  • Nov 8, 2011 6:47pm Nov 8, 2011 6:47pm
every mens problems

Inserted Video
  • #28,879
  • Nov 8, 2011 6:50pm Nov 8, 2011 6:50pm
Hi FTI and fellow traders! I have been a long time lurker in this thread, studying and re-studying. More importantly, APPLYING and re-applying the
concepts presented. I can definitely say my trading has done a 180 turn for the better. Before I found these teachings, I clogged up my chart with indicators and always winced when I placed a trade. I fully expected a loss and usually got what I expected.

Now, my charts have a few straight lines at most. Every trade I place, I fully expect a profit. My only question now is how much. My confidence is unshakeable, yet I remind myself to keep humble lest the market remind me of my place.

I just wanted to say a big "Thank You" for what you have presented. I am sure it has touched many others positively who may never take the chance to tell you so. So I'll include a thanks for them as well. May you be blessed with many HEALTHY years ahead!
  • #28,880
  • Nov 8, 2011 6:56pm Nov 8, 2011 6:56pm
Quoting MasterElf1
Hi FTI and fellow traders! I have been a long time lurker in this thread, studying and re-studying. More importantly, APPLYING and re-applying the
concepts presented. I can definitely say my trading has done a 180 turn for the better. Before I found these teachings, I clogged up my chart with indicators and always winced when I placed a trade. I fully expected a loss and usually got what I expected.

Now, my charts have a few straight lines at most. Every trade I place, I fully expect a profit. My only question now is how much. My confidence...
Thank You,MasterElf1

For your kind words and the willingness read, understand and apply.

regards
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