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  • #181
  • Nov 4, 2011 8:24am Nov 4, 2011 8:24am
Another pair on my radar - I like GBP pairs often because their swing moves are larger - although it can be very risky / stressful to trade them on lower timeframes.

We need more charts.....:-)


___________
michael
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Be like water.
  • #182
  • Nov 4, 2011 12:32pm Nov 4, 2011 12:32pm
[quote=Milton;5102140][quote=fxgroup;5099457]
Quote
In the area, at which my arrow is pointing, price reached the resistance line of the monthly RM. So, we switch to the daily. Here price breaks through (on the daily), closes largely above, comes back to retest the BO line and makes a bullish pinbar (strong buyers). Then price breaks above the high of this PB (our entry! buyers are in control), but shortly after retraces and comes back to take us out at the S/L just below the resistance line.
Your PB is a D candle during the W forming. So you've taken a trading decision without waiting to have the W confirmation.
If you have wait the W close, you have seen the W close as a PB at our level and this would have been your first information about WPD.
During the next W, the price close bellow the level- the buyers deffend it(PB) and the next day the sellers are in controll.
Note that the RET al the level is the LH confirmation ...so...beeing in W RM ....it is also the DT's confirmation.
Note that my PB is ONLY after the W candle closed above the upper limit of the W RM.

This is a great example why it is so important to wait ALWAYS the higher TF's confirmation...and much safer !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #183
  • Nov 5, 2011 1:25pm Nov 5, 2011 1:25pm
Trying it to make it simple, this is how I basically see it....hope it helps.

Everyone have a good weekend.


___________
michael
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Be like water.
  • #184
  • Nov 6, 2011 4:05am Nov 6, 2011 4:05am
[quote=msmarple;5105310]
Quote
Trying it to make it simple, this is how I basically see it....hope it helps.
....It couldn't be simplier than this !...and safer !
LOL. Why did it took you so much ?http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Nothing personal,just business
  • #185
  • Nov 6, 2011 10:15am Nov 6, 2011 10:15am
[quote=fxgroup;5103950][quote=Milton;5102140]
Quoting fxgroup

Your PB is a D candle during the W forming. So you've taken a trading decision without waiting to have the W confirmation.
If you have wait the W close, you have seen the W close as a PB at our level and this would have been your first information about WPD.
During the next W, the price close bellow the level- the buyers deffend it(PB) and the next day the sellers are in controll.
Note that the RET al the level is the LH confirmation ...so...beeing in W RM ....it is also the DT's confirmation.
Note...
Yes, fxgroup. But waiting for the weekly candle to close above the S/R line, would have ended in a loss also. Because I would have entered at the candle with the arrow (the first candle, after the week before closed above the S/R). This candle retested the BO of the range and buyers were absolutely confirmed. And this method isn't based necessarely on a second retest (the cross, where you would have entered).
P.S. Don't look at the MA's. They are for a scalping method, that I'm testing.
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  • #186
  • Nov 6, 2011 11:21am Nov 6, 2011 11:21am
Another chart. Actually a vitally important question : where can we enter ?

Please also see fxgroup`s CHFJPY chart. many would have entered immediately after the bearish engulfing candle, fxgroup waited for a retest and then entered extremely close to the important level.

Hope that helps.


_________
michael
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Be like water.
  • #187
  • Nov 6, 2011 4:09pm Nov 6, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting msmarple
Another chart. Actually a vitally important question : where can we enter ?

Please also see fxgroup`s CHFJPY chart. many would have entered immediately after the bearish engulfing candle, fxgroup waited for a retest and then entered extremely close to the important level.

Hope that helps.


_________
michael
Michael, what do you mean with "gap" exactly in this case?
  • #188
  • Nov 6, 2011 5:49pm Nov 6, 2011 5:49pm
[quote=Milton;5106198]
Quote
And this method isn't based necessarely on a second retest
No, but when the P is in RM and not in a strong trend, the W close becomes crucial as a confirmation .
Quote
P.S. Don't look at the MA's. They are for a scalping method, that I'm testing.
I don't want to look at the MA's, but because of it I can't see the price...and this is not a scalping method !

P.S. I don't want to seem rude, but all I try is to respect the thread's rules.
Without rules, the traders have no chance in trading world !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #189
  • Nov 7, 2011 12:48am Nov 7, 2011 12:48am
[quote=fxgroup;5106846]
Quoting Milton
No, but when the P is in RM and not in a strong trend, the W close becomes crucial as a confirmation .
I don't want to look at the MA's, but because of it I can't see the price...and this is not a scalping method !

P.S. I don't want to seem rude, but all I try is to respect the thread's rules.
Without rules, the traders have no chance in trading world !
I think, you didn't read correctly my post. I showed you, that an entry AFTER the weekly close would have been a loss also. The candle with the arrow was my entry candle and this candle IS after the WEEKLY close. If this candle isn't an entry candle, could you please explain, why? (for me: the candle before broke out of the weekly RM, CLOSED above as a bullish PB, the next candle, MY entry candle with the arrow, retested the S/R line and went up: buyers are clearly on control). Thank you for your help.
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  • #190
  • Nov 7, 2011 9:45am Nov 7, 2011 9:45am
Quoting Milton
Michael, what do you mean with "gap" exactly in this case?
Gaps how I call them occur very often in the 3-candle structure highlighted in my red box. If you go through your charts you will see them...and also watch how the breakout level is at some time almost always reached again.

It´s a good practice to go through one`s own charts and see this. Nothing special really, but useful for watching price behaviour. And slightly beyond the usual pinbar, engulfing etc. way of looking at price.

I hope that fxgroup gives us more examples. We can the compare charts or discuss more.

So I hope we dont get stuck in this above example reg. weekly candle close only.


Best regards,


__________
michael
Be like water.
  • #191
  • Nov 7, 2011 10:03am Nov 7, 2011 10:03am
[quote=msmarple;5102740]
Quote
The bands are something I just use occasionally to make switching through MANY MANY charts throughout the day easier on the eye. I have tried Ichimoku clouds, Bollinger bands, Keltner bands or Raghees Horners 34 ema bands - but they keep distracting me.
So why don't you get ride of it ?
Quote
. But I never base decisions to trade on that.
So it's useless !

You can much more then a channel or a MA !
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Nothing personal,just business
  • #192
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:31pm Nov 7, 2011 4:31pm
The price turns back in the RM. The buyers are trying to defend the R of the RM, but the sellers gave us the confirmation on W.
All we have to do is to....wait...wait...wait !
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  • #193
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:45pm Nov 7, 2011 5:45pm
Why do you say all we have to do is wait wait wait, shouldn't we already be in the short?

What are we waiting on? price to hit our TP at the bottom of RM on monthly?


Quoting fxgroup
The price turns back in the RM. The buyers are trying to defend the R of the RM, but the sellers gave us the confirmation on W.
All we have to do is to....wait...wait...wait !
  • #194
  • Nov 8, 2011 8:16am Nov 8, 2011 8:16am
[quote=nikim;5110808]
Quote
Why do you say all we have to do is wait wait wait, shouldn't we already be in the short?
If we would have had an account that it shoud allowed us to trade weekly candle, it would have been so great! But since we don't have it, we are waiting a D retracement.

Quote
What are we waiting on? price to hit our TP at the bottom of RM on monthly?
This would be so perfect !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #195
  • Nov 8, 2011 11:12am Nov 8, 2011 11:12am
Fxgroup, could you please take the time to read post 189? It's important for me to understand, how to take the best entry. Thank you.
  • #196
  • Nov 9, 2011 3:40am Nov 9, 2011 3:40am
Hi Milton sorry for delay !

The market could do only 2 things: trend and RM.
In a trend fase, the market is dominated by those who have the market's controll (sellers in bearish trend and buyers in bullish trend).
When we are trading the trends becomes more easy because the power of buyers/sellers and very often is obvious and as a consequence the buyers/sellers reaction WITH the main trend is clear and has no doubt.

But we are trading the RM, we have to affront buyers and sellers at the same time. In a RM the first price reaction to a S/ R level is only a first reaction at the level and not a confirmation. Since in a RM we have buyers+sellers, the safiest way to trade is to wait to trade RET ONLY AFTER the trend is allready start. On our chart this concept is the higher TF confirmation.
On eurgbp case I think the msmarple explanation is the right one.....beeing in a RM, we have to wait the W confirmation (the W candle to close outside the RM or a W pattern that could give us more informations-buob,IB that retest the level,etc-). Waiting the W candle to close and seeing that the sellers put a great pressure un buyers (look at the W's tail-this means to read the price beyond the candles), we don't trade long since we don't have the W confirmation that the buyers are in RM's controll.

Look at my charts...we wait first the W confirmation and we trade only after the W is closed on the next D retracements. I know that remain less, but is much more safer especially when it is against the main trend.
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Nothing personal,just business
  • #197
  • Nov 9, 2011 3:52am Nov 9, 2011 3:52am
Quoting fxgroup
Hi Milton sorry for delay !

The market could do only 2 things: trend and RM.
In a trend fase, the market is dominated by those who have the market's controll (sellers in bearish trend and buyers in bullish trend).
When we are trading the trends becomes more easy because the power of buyers/sellers and very often is obvious and as a consequence the buyers/sellers reaction WITH the main trend is clear and has no doubt.

But we are trading the RM, we have to affront buyers and sellers at the same time. In a RM the first price reaction to a S/ R...
OK. Could you please mark your entry candle on the daily chart with an arrow (for your CADCHF example)?
  • #198
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:33am Nov 9, 2011 8:33am
[quote=Milton;5116039]
Quote
OK. Could you please mark your entry candle on the daily chart with an arrow (for your CADCHF example)?
The marked candles (blue arrows) on my D chart are the safiest entries. One of these entries, you'll find it in one of my posts (a chart with entry details-feb11.2011).
Nothing personal,just business
  • #199
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:15am Nov 9, 2011 10:15am
I did not see any RET to get in short. Would it have been too agressive to enter at the break of the candle low?


Quoting fxgroup
The price turns back in the RM. The buyers are trying to defend the R of the RM, but the sellers gave us the confirmation on W.
All we have to do is to....wait...wait...wait !
  • #200
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:13am Nov 9, 2011 11:13am
[quote=nikim;5117805]
Quote
I did not see any RET to get in short. Would it have been too agressive to enter at the break of the candle low?
If you are trading W, as I said...yes and no if you trade D candles .

I trading, the patience and the self-control are crucial requirements, not necessarily to take good trades, but most of all to stay away (keep out) of bad trades.
We have to accept, to take and to not pretend more than the market give us, otherwise we will start to lose the self-controll and start to make mistakes. Sometimes the market makes what it has to do without giving to us any opportunity, sometimes it give us more chances, but the market makes ALWAYS what it wants, we can not controll it and we have to accept it.
Nothing personal,just business
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