Good Morning Friends,
Just a HI from here as it is an Eid day here. E/U opened high but Asian shares drop and so does the Euro. wish you all simple and strong Mindset.
Regards
Bert
Happy Eid
Technical Analysis Fallacy
today at work i found mr. Ducks secret.. good moneymanagement
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes_Fictional_15
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes_Fictional_15
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
- #28,848
- Edited 12:44pm Nov 7, 2011 11:33am | Edited 12:44pm
hi baifu, when i was reading the thread i saw the advice about skews..think and research fibo spirals ... i never did because because i cannot understand.... not a suprisse i don't use any attack rescue etc.
i think it's great you can figure these math things out... but is what you say the conclusion of your study (fti recommended) or is it what Fti has said and i missed??
like i said earlier it's all abracedabra to me so
When Fti posted the Wilder’s Table he said it was the basis of his MM, and we must understand pyramid math, I never understood what he meant, until last Sunday when “diminishing base” conjure up an inverted pyramid and made me think this might be the red thread connecting the three concepts. I was never that impressed by Wilder’s table because anyone who owns stock has experienced losing money as the stock rise and fall the same % (take a calculator and punch 1 x 0.9 x 1.1 x 0.9 x 1.1, …… it will stay under 1 and get progressively worse. Even if we start with 10% rise instead of fall and do 1 x 1.1 x 0.9 x 1.1 x 0.9, …….. sooner or later we will be permanently under 1). On the other hand if we think $$$ and not %, a stock rising and falling $10 is BE, naturally ROI is different, $10 loss on $10 investment is 100%, on $100 it is only 10%. One way or another numbers lie.
If we calculate gain loss as % then it is a mathematical certainty we need more % to gain back loss because of diminishing base (inverse pyramid), the same reason bound oscillators show divergence because 10 pip rise move the indicator less than 10 pip fall at the upper boundary, and vice versa at the lower boundary (speed versus acceleration I guess). If we equate Wilder's gain back % as retrace then in order to rescue we need to turn the pyramid right side up to achieve BE with less retarce %. May be this is what fti mean by pyramid math, not sure, but I will search for ancient Egyptian pyramids no more.
Quote: “a thing is i see your calculations about rescue skews ... i don't know if you can always rely on them if you don't factor in volatility... Fti said he uses SMA12 ... i often look how many pips are between the numbers on the right side of my chart to see volatility. i cannot say it is good but i adjust my size to this...
i think Fti's way is much beter, i guess because it shows changes in volatility quicker but i don't know how to see it. maybe how far price is from the SMA??... i don't know.. maybe someone who knows can comment... i think it's importand,”
I don’t understand. You can see and feel whether the run against you is powerful or weak and guestimate whether a 10%, 25%, 38%, 50%, 62%, … , retrace is realistic, then do a skew(s) to try bring your average price to that level. Calculating skew does not need to be rocket science, fib skew is just an example, the idea is to bring average price close to market when in loss and not too close when in profit. How about practice in demo? I think attack-rescue is an integral part of “basics”, if not how can we correct “mistiming”?
The sma 12 on M5 chart shows the distance between price and the hourly average (or benchmark) , it gives some idea whether we have missed the bus and an opportunity to “realign”, i.e., observe how price behaves at the benchmark and board the bus, or not. It does not tell about volatility, to do that we have to note the range and time scope (how far and in how many bars) of the leg, volatility does not have to be directional. I believe we have to learn to read volatility and momentum real time, it takes experience and I am far from being there.
Rgs,
Baifu
Do we agree on the following? Q not directed at Pax, just thoroughly confused by some recent posts.
1 lot = 100,000 units (std lot)
0.1 lot = 10,000 units (mini lot)
0.01 lot = 1000 units (micro lot)
0.001 lot = 100 units (nano lot?)
0.00001 lot = 1 unit (doable with non-MT4 Oanda)
100,000 USD acct holding 1 lot U/J is leveraged at 1 : 1
100,000 USD acct holding 1 lot E/U at quote 1.4 is leveraged at 1.4 : 1
- #28,849
- Nov 7, 2011 12:19pm Nov 7, 2011 12:19pm
Hi Simpleman,
FTI spent 4 years teaching the impossible and against the mainstream of the blind leading the blind, "very uphill", as he put it
My post is just babbling to tell a minor story of understanding. But thank you for the kind word anyway
Rgs
Baifu
FTI spent 4 years teaching the impossible and against the mainstream of the blind leading the blind, "very uphill", as he put it
My post is just babbling to tell a minor story of understanding. But thank you for the kind word anyway
Rgs
Baifu
- #28,850
- Nov 7, 2011 12:35pm Nov 7, 2011 12:35pm
- | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: adjust your sails to the wind | 1,354 Posts
although some of you really need a good amount brain surgery.
regards
hey Baifu
Quote: “a thing is i see your calculations about rescue skews ... i don't know if you can always rely on them if you don't factor in volatility... Fti said he uses SMA12 ... i often look how many pips are between the numbers on the right side of my chart to see volatility. i cannot say it is good but i adjust my size to this...
i think Fti's way is much beter, i guess because it shows changes in volatility quicker but i don't know how to see it. maybe how far price is from the SMA??... i don't know.. maybe someone who knows can comment... i think it's importand,”
I don’t understand. You can see and feel whether the run against you is powerful or weak and guestimate whether a 10%, 25%, 38%, 50%, 62%, … , retrace is realistic, then do a skew(s) to try bring your average price to that level. Calculating skew does not need to be rocket science, fib skew is just an example, the idea is to bring average price close to market when in loss and not too close when in profit. How about practice in demo? I think attack-rescue is an integral part of “basics”, if not how can we correct “mistiming”?
i dont think you can guess the retracement... if i remember correct:
you switch to hourly chart and rescue IN THE RETRACEMENT WHEN IT HAPPENS... this can take a long time and made me stop rescuing...
The sma 12 on M5 chart shows the distance between price and the hourly average (or benchmark) , it gives some idea whether we have missed the bus and an opportunity to “realign”, i.e., observe how price behaves at the benchmark and board the bus, or not. It does not tell about volatility, to do that we have to note the range and time scope (how far and in how many bars) of the leg, volatility does not have to be directional. I believe we have to learn to read volatility and momentum real time, it takes experience and I am far from being there.
ok yes that is the volatility i used to rescue/gamble in... i now call it wild(or slow) price action.
the volatility i mean can be seen in prices on your chart... ATM 11numbers 10 pips apart... this changes all the time... last weeks i see very often 20 pips apart. in quieter times 5 pips apart... the risk this bring makes switching to hourly imprortant.
it's how i understand it... i wish it was different...
sorry for my short reply but i just messed up my long version
regards pax
Quote: “a thing is i see your calculations about rescue skews ... i don't know if you can always rely on them if you don't factor in volatility... Fti said he uses SMA12 ... i often look how many pips are between the numbers on the right side of my chart to see volatility. i cannot say it is good but i adjust my size to this...
i think Fti's way is much beter, i guess because it shows changes in volatility quicker but i don't know how to see it. maybe how far price is from the SMA??... i don't know.. maybe someone who knows can comment... i think it's importand,”
I don’t understand. You can see and feel whether the run against you is powerful or weak and guestimate whether a 10%, 25%, 38%, 50%, 62%, … , retrace is realistic, then do a skew(s) to try bring your average price to that level. Calculating skew does not need to be rocket science, fib skew is just an example, the idea is to bring average price close to market when in loss and not too close when in profit. How about practice in demo? I think attack-rescue is an integral part of “basics”, if not how can we correct “mistiming”?
i dont think you can guess the retracement... if i remember correct:
you switch to hourly chart and rescue IN THE RETRACEMENT WHEN IT HAPPENS... this can take a long time and made me stop rescuing...
The sma 12 on M5 chart shows the distance between price and the hourly average (or benchmark) , it gives some idea whether we have missed the bus and an opportunity to “realign”, i.e., observe how price behaves at the benchmark and board the bus, or not. It does not tell about volatility, to do that we have to note the range and time scope (how far and in how many bars) of the leg, volatility does not have to be directional. I believe we have to learn to read volatility and momentum real time, it takes experience and I am far from being there.
ok yes that is the volatility i used to rescue/gamble in... i now call it wild(or slow) price action.
the volatility i mean can be seen in prices on your chart... ATM 11numbers 10 pips apart... this changes all the time... last weeks i see very often 20 pips apart. in quieter times 5 pips apart... the risk this bring makes switching to hourly imprortant.
it's how i understand it... i wish it was different...
sorry for my short reply but i just messed up my long version
regards pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
- #28,854
- Nov 7, 2011 1:50pm Nov 7, 2011 1:50pm
Hi Simpleman,
FTI spent 4 years teaching the impossible and against the mainstream of the blind leading the blind, "very uphill", as he put it
My post is just babbling to tell a minor story of understanding. But thank you for the kind word anyway
Rgs
Baifu
Practice makes men/women perfect.
- #28,856
- Edited 3:19pm Nov 7, 2011 2:55pm | Edited 3:19pm
Hi Pax,
I agree when in trouble and if the shorter time frame chart has turned we have to zoom out to larger time frame to see if we have mis-timed or on the wrong side of trend, and to assess the time window for rescue, or not.
Once you decide to rescue you can always use the fib retrace tool to draw the leg that has run against you, look at the retrace levels and make an educated guess (based on the character of the run leg) which level of retrace is realistic and if we have the fire power to do the rescue. A partial rescue is also an option....
... about using fibo retracements. it made me obsessed with half a leg 50% retracements and made me ignore price action sometimes ... i have many bad habbits and do all kinds of things i will not share... i am just having fun trading....
Fti has shared his experience for years now... Not for my fun but for people and families to have a good/safe life.
i think it´s confusing to people new here... to mix Fti´s teaching with personal technique.... everyone is trying to help ... and that is great
but it´s better to keep it close to the first 200 pages everyone talks about.
When i am here i try to remember what Fti has said. hoping that when i am wrong someone will correct me.
you are generous with your time so i think you will!!
EDIT~all of the levels you mention i consider to be dangerous-scorpion levels for me personaly... i try to think... look price action first and second... the level, third... but old habbits die hard
one other thing you say i realy have to learn... damage controle!!!break even is also a level that ruins a good `rescue` .. oh damn i said i don´t rescue
regards, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
i will not judge your modifications to fti´s ways..
------
i think it´s confusing to people new here... to mix Fti´s teaching with personal technique.... everyone is trying to help ... and that is great
but it´s better to keep it close to the first 200 pages everyone talks about.
-----
EDIT~all of the levels you mention i consider to be dangerous-scorpion levels for me personaly... i try to think... look price action first and second... the level, third... but old habbits die hard
[color=#0000ff]one other thing you say...
what personal technique? I thought I was following fti basics the best I know how - use run leg to estimate what retrace is realistic, use the fib retrace tool to help see the scale / proportions (for example if I think I am against a strong impulse but I might get 10% retrace, the fib retrace 23.6% help me gauge where 10% is approximately) once the "goal" is known work out the skew size.Why are S & R levels (fixed and dynamic levels) dangerous scorpions? We know price likes to re-visit past levels and we watch PA to see how they behave at these levels. There is no prediction, just acquaint myself with the terrain and watch how price acts in order to react .
Rgs,
Baifu
- #28,859
- Edited 3:40pm Nov 7, 2011 3:29pm | Edited 3:40pm
Sorry I am a bit confused
Why are S & R levels (fixed and dynamic levels) dangerous scorpions? We know price likes to re-visit past levels and we watch...
... it is not easy to keep an open mind
... in the end an open mind sees wat is realy going on ... and good MM. let nimble people deal with it.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
about the fib. retracements.. Fti said we keep our charts naked... it avoids predicting habits... i tried to predict at all the levels and they did break often... a good reason is because (stop)orders are placed above or below... there is no telling if the snapback comes all the way back. lately i am more biased against these levels
To watch PA behaviour at S&R levels is not prediction even if we know before hand where they are. Fib levels are not important to me, I have said they are self fulfilling prophecies and 1/4, 1/3, 1/2, etc are good enough gauges. However since all charting software provide this tool, it is very handy to pull a line and see where the zones are and whether there is confluence with pivots, peaks and valleys, yesterdays highs and lows etc etc. Okay may be fti does not look at pivots, yesterday's high and low but he talks about hip and lop though, same thing
.Rgs
Baifu