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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,821
  • Nov 6, 2011 11:59am Nov 6, 2011 11:59am
Quoting Baifu
[size=3][font=Calibri]FTI started his MM lessons with Wilder’s Loss Table - if you lose 10% you need to gain back 11% to break even and the difference increases exponentially. For example, lose 25% gain 33%, lose 50% gain 100%.
I think you have summed up all FTI post and strategy in just one post. Good work and thank you.
  • #28,822
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:05pm Nov 6, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting simpleman
good one V

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...-yKhDd64s#t=2s
hi simpleman, very cool video and music... i hope you see i was trying to help and not critesize you and buma personaly yesterday... i saw the text below your name.. if the money comes easy please ask yourself what is wrong...it's hard work!!

if you don't like what i say it ignore it... like i did when you said i looked 150 years old no problem

pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,823
  • Edited 12:49pm Nov 6, 2011 12:30pm | Edited 12:49pm
Quoting Baifu
FTI started his MM lessons with Wilder’s Loss Table - if you lose 10% you need to gain back 11% to break even and the difference increases exponentially. For example, lose 25% gain 33%, lose 50% gain 100%. In percentage terms, gain % for BE = (100 / (100-loss %)-1)*100
[size=3][font=Calibri]Or, if you start with $2 and lose $1, the remaining $1 need to gain 100% to make up the lost dollar. The catch word is “remaining” because losing means capital is shrinking. But what if loss is not locked and another $2 is...
Hey baifu, what a impreesive post... i cannot say i agree or disagree because one of my defects is i am horrible at Math... and abstract thinking

a thing is i see your calculations about rescue skews ... i don't know if you can always rely on them if you don't factor in volatility... Fti said he uses SMA12 ... i often look how many pips are between the numbers on the right side of my chart to see volatility. i cannot say it is good but i adjust my size to this...
i think Fti's way is much beter, i guess because it shows changes in volatility quicker but i don't know how to see it. maybe how far price is from the SMA??... i don't know.. maybe someone who knows can comment... i think it's importand,

i read your post again and think about it
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,824
  • Nov 6, 2011 1:19pm Nov 6, 2011 1:19pm
hi baifu, when i was reading the thread i saw the advice about skews..think and research fibo spirals ... i never did because because i cannot understand.... not a suprisse i don't use any attack rescue etc.

i think it's great you can figure these math things out... but is what you say the conclusion of your study (fti recommended) or is it what Fti has said and i missed??

like i said earlier it's all abracedabra to me so
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,825
  • Nov 6, 2011 1:22pm Nov 6, 2011 1:22pm
Quoting j-pax
hi simpleman, very cool video and music... i hope you see i was trying to help and not critesize you and buma personaly yesterday... i saw the text below your name.. if the money comes easy please ask yourself what is wrong...it's hard work!!

if you don't like what i say it ignore it... like i did when you said i looked 150 years old no problem

pax
Don't worry my friend, I am too hard to be offended, criticism is good if I can't take it positively and improve myself.

Whatever wining trades I had so far they were not easy I just followed the market and in the last trade I just made 1.5% which isn't big, and I have history of 1-2 % winners. I have just come down from longer term charts to shorter term charts.

Why did you think it was easy winning? May be what I saw on the charts (right or wrong) lots of people didn't. just saying, not arguing.

OR as you say may be I was lucky.
  • #28,826
  • Nov 6, 2011 1:40pm Nov 6, 2011 1:40pm
This was one of FTI (I think) post which I had copied and now presenting it for you.

Hi Northpro and Leighsww,

You have both not seen my true attack sequense yet, so as a matter of fact , both your planning is very different from my attack sequense.

Let me give you a hypotical scenerio.
lets say (for example only), (in reality I have much more muscle than this)that the fibo expansion is my MM play, ie 1,1,2,3,5,8
Now thats 20 sections.
I send in a scout (wave AB), he plays well and I decide to check him, I send in 1 checker, which is my level 2 (wave CD)
and level 2 plays well,that would mean that wave CD is short and plays above wave AB. If wave EF retraces then i would be forced to invoke rescue 5 and I go into rescue mode.

If EF did not do that then the instance of the attack would be in wave EF, and if the dance dictates that I am in alignment with the daily trend and both the short charts, It would require that I would attack full force 5, 11 before the break away r/s point( normally somewhere in the mid of AF's range, and would be drawing the attack total of 16 in batches as we test into the r/s depending on the volatility whereby the market is taking that r/s out.
Then upon the test, profitaking of the attack sequense would be invoked into the stops-break on the reverse 8,5,3.
In effects I would be profit taking for ammo(foreign capital) to sustain the residue of the 4 that are still in battle. The four would be further lighten if the trend continues to persist. This would continue until what is left is 1. then a new sequence of 1,1,2,3,5,8 would be put on stand by to ride the next retrace wave, and when the retace wave flats out , the whole rescue and attack sequense would be replayed, depending on the magnitute of the retacement. If the retrace was a fat and bouncy one then the rescue MO was most appropriate. If a new attack opportunity sequence was surfaces, then a new attack sequence would be invoked with whatever was left from rescue.

In reality, you would be seeing that the risk of full force used at the most advantages probabilities and timing.
Of course it can happen that the market may move adverse after the strong attack, and thats when, the damagecontol is invoked to rescue as many of the positions still in good standing as possible and re-strategised( regrouped) for exposure rescue.

This attack sequense is not invoked when the market volatility is tight, Only when the legs are strong,(strong = range play 50 pips average) and volatility run of max 7 bars average 3.

I hope this helps.
  • #28,827
  • Nov 6, 2011 1:49pm Nov 6, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting simpleman
Don't worry my friend, I am too hard to be offended, criticism is good if I can't take it positively and improve myself.

Whatever wining trades I had so far they were not easy I just followed the market and in the last trade I just made 1.5% which isn't big, and I have history of 1-2 % winners. I have just come down from longer term charts to shorter term charts.

Why did you think it was easy winning? May be what I saw on the charts (right or wrong) lots of people didn't. just saying, not arguing.

OR as you say may be I was lucky....
hi mate,

for 7 trades 9 troops 1,5% is very big to me

i don't say you are lucky.... i actualy think your dancing skills are good since you did not lose money... but you cannot rely on your skills and mindset alone... my first reply to you was because i think your trade size does not allow good moneymanegement. i cannot see your funds but when you see baifu's post about "size of troops" it confirms my doubt.
one.. 0,01 lot is 1troop and 1 pip is 0,1 cent... like i said my math is bad so do your own. and keep volatility lately in mind, 200 pip moves are normal
i gave suggestions about other brokers so you can be more safe and learning trading without fear... when you feel fear you are probably overtrading... the same with greed.

you dance well ... just remember the whole picture presented here.

pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,828
  • Nov 6, 2011 1:50pm Nov 6, 2011 1:50pm
auxesis, was wondering if your home was damaged in yesterday's earthquakes? Hope you and your family are OK!
  • #28,829
  • Edited 2:11pm Nov 6, 2011 1:58pm | Edited 2:11pm
Quoting j-pax
hi mate,

i gave suggestions about oher brokers so you can be more safe and learning trading without fear... when you feel fear you are probably overtrading... the same with greed.

you dance well ... just remember the whole picture presented here.

pax
I will try OANDA in few weeks time. My account size with broker is $1,000, with 0.10 per pip minimum (equivalent to 0.01 in OANDA), and that is why I said 10% risk will loose me $100 and which means loss of 1000 pips. Did I do the calculation right?

EDIT: This is the money I have kept it with broker otherwise account is bigger than $1k.
  • #28,830
  • Nov 6, 2011 2:09pm Nov 6, 2011 2:09pm
When I look at the my last trade, I think I could have done it better. Check the swings and see how many entry points.
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  • #28,831
  • Edited 2:23pm Nov 6, 2011 2:11pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting simpleman
I will try OANDA in few weeks time. My account size with broker is $1,000, with 0.10 per pip minimum (equivalent to 0.01 in OANDA), and that is why I said 10% risk will loose me $100 and which means loss of 1000 pips. Did I do the calculation right?
don't ask me to calculate but oanda does not have lots, but units.... you could see an unit as a 0,0001 lot... this makes you more flexible. and if you trade small and active i think you will enjoy trading more... certainly hope so...

edit: unit as a 0,ooo1 lot is not correct but you get my point

i go to sleep now .. trade well and safe,

pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,832
  • Nov 6, 2011 2:18pm Nov 6, 2011 2:18pm
pax is right. the smaller the units the more u can lose and be flexible and learn with it. and i think that we get to learn more like that easily without the possible risk of stress in larger units or lots.

i wish you all the best with your live account
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #28,833
  • Nov 6, 2011 2:25pm Nov 6, 2011 2:25pm
[[B[/b]QUOTE=GEfx;5106577]auxesis, was wondering if your home was damaged in yesterday's earthquakes? Hope you and your family are OK![/quote]
Hpe auxesis you and your family is doing fine
  • #28,834
  • Nov 6, 2011 2:43pm Nov 6, 2011 2:43pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
[[B[/b]QUOTE=GEfx;5106577]auxesis, was wondering if your home was damaged in yesterday's earthquakes? Hope you and your family are OK!
Hpe auxesis you and your family is doing fine[/quote]

Thanks for the asking, family and home are ok although a little shaken, tornadoes are usually the trouble makers on the plains so earthquakes are not normal occurrences. We've had two historic quakes for Oklahoma in the last 48 hours, a 5.7 which broke the old record of 5.6 and a 4.7 which was #3 on the list plus a multitude of aftershocks. Some homes along the epicenter were moderately damaged, most just something to tell the grandkids.

here's some pictures of the damage here at the casa.
Attached Image
  • #28,835
  • Nov 6, 2011 2:55pm Nov 6, 2011 2:55pm
Quote

Thanks for the asking, family and home are ok although a little shaken, tornadoes are usually the trouble makers on the plains so earthquakes are not normal occurrences. We've had two historic quakes for Oklahoma in the last 48 hours, a 5.7 which broke the old record of 5.6 and a 4.7 which was #3 on the list plus a multitude of aftershocks. Some homes along the epicenter were moderately damaged, most just something to tell the grandkids.

here's some pictures of the damage here at the casa.

thank God u okay
lol the pic

NO!!! the chair!!

so hows tornadoes in the US? is there like a forecast for them or they just strike?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #28,836
  • Nov 6, 2011 3:04pm Nov 6, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting bumapatria


so hows tornadoes in the US? is there like a forecast for them or they just strike?
Norman Oklahoma hosts the National Severe Weather Laboratory, they do all the preliminary severe weather forecasting for the US, and have the most sophisticated weather radars and forecasting computers in the world, it's really something to see. That being said, they are pretty reliable at forecasting areas of higher chances 24-48 hours out, it's tornado spotters, people, that go into those areas watching the weather that give everyone the heads-up.

Folks around here take the weather very serious, most everyone has storm shelters but they still catch folks unaware at times, specially in the night.

Google the tornado that hit Joplin Missouri earlier this year to see the worst.

What part of this marble we call earth you from?

regards,
  • #28,837
  • Nov 6, 2011 3:10pm Nov 6, 2011 3:10pm
Quoting auxesis
Hpe auxesis you and your family is doing fine
Thanks for the asking, family and home are ok although a little shaken, tornadoes are usually the trouble makers on the plains so earthquakes are not normal occurrences. We've had two historic quakes for Oklahoma in the last 48 hours, a 5.7 which broke the old record of 5.6 and a 4.7 which was #3 on the list plus a multitude of aftershocks. Some homes along the epicenter were moderately damaged, most just something to tell the grandkids.

here's some pictures of the damage here at the casa.[/quote]



Rgs,

Textor
  • #28,838
  • Nov 6, 2011 8:15pm Nov 6, 2011 8:15pm
Quoting j-pax
hi suma,

i was thinking about >know yourself and know your enemy< and for a long time i thought the enemy is outside me... who is my enemy??? i never could think of anyone ...
later i was thinking myself is my talents and enemy my defects/ scorpions... i still think this is a usefull meaning

i also think it could be seen as having a plan for both sides of my position... i know my reasons for choosing a direction but i also look at reasons why i could be wrong and plan for it ...

or also you could think my enemy has very much money... so i...



Hi j-pax


<<know your self,, n know your enemy >> in earlier times / / long time ago,, was in the country there are many small kindoms china and a war between these kingdoms
and the sentence above is defined in the sense that the true enemy of his

but for now a more modern era for the sentence is up to you to interpret and describe its
just my opinion ,, maybe the other have different opinion

Regards,
suma
  • #28,839
  • Edited 8:47pm Nov 6, 2011 8:36pm | Edited 8:47pm
Quoting auxesis

Thanks for the asking, family and home are ok although a little shaken, tornadoes are usually the trouble makers on the plains so earthquakes are not normal occurrences. We've had two historic quakes for Oklahoma in the last 48 hours, a 5.7 which broke the old record of 5.6 and a 4.7 which was #3 on the list plus a multitude of aftershocks. Some homes along the epicenter were moderately damaged, most just something to tell the grandkids.

here's some pictures of the damage here at the casa.
good to know auxesis... you and your family is fine......

god bless


V
  • #28,840
  • Nov 6, 2011 9:54pm Nov 6, 2011 9:54pm
Good Morning Friends,

Just a HI from here as it is an Eid day here. E/U opened high but Asian shares drop and so does the Euro. wish you all simple and strong Mindset.

Regards
Bert
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