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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,801
  • Nov 5, 2011 3:20pm Nov 5, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting j-pax
sorry you do not get my point... i'll try to explain what i think:
it's not how i trade but how i understand Fti's teaching!!!

i said somethink like: our enemy has very much money and you have to have more, relatively speaking.

this means your scout is so small, you cannot be afraid!! you are prepaired for everything
you cannot be greedy, because you trade too small to make quick money... that's why they say "it's an ants job!!!"

if you trade small you can manage your position actively and this will help against lack off focus..

maybe...

oh... right... that..

gotcha buddy
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #28,802
  • Nov 5, 2011 3:24pm Nov 5, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting bumapatria
oh... right... that..

gotcha buddy
this is the repost originaly by Fti i was refering to :

" --- To improve skills, cut trading position to 20 units of position.
Choose a trend attempt , then trade the 20 positions one at a time. Dance with the flow.You will discover how, all I have shown you in AOW will assist in your ability to dance.

The objective, try to be profitable in all the 20 positions.

Then analyse your trading , figure how you may have improved. Do it again for a few times, the market will teach you. Best done in demo until you are good dancer."
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,803
  • Nov 5, 2011 3:37pm Nov 5, 2011 3:37pm
Quoting j-pax
this is the repost originaly by Fti i was refering to :

" --- To improve skills, cut trading position to 20 units of position.
Choose a trend attempt , then trade the 20 positions one at a time. Dance with the flow.You will discover how, all I have shown you in AOW will assist in your ability to dance.

The objective, try to be profitable in all the 20 positions.

Then analyse your trading , figure how you may have improved. Do it again for a few times, the market will teach you. Best done in demo until you are good dancer."
1st dance gotta be good first though right?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #28,804
  • Nov 5, 2011 3:45pm Nov 5, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting bumapatria
1st dance gotta be good first though right?
if you are a good dancer.... you risk that the other parts of MO like mindset and money management get overlooked.... maybe it is better to be a bad dancer and be safe because of good MM. think about it the point is to be complete and i dont doubt your dancing skills... i suggested the "cut in 20" exersize for your mindset.. greed fear and lack of focus
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,805
  • Nov 5, 2011 4:17pm Nov 5, 2011 4:17pm
Quoting j-pax
if you are a good dancer.... you risk that the other parts of MO like mindset and money management get overlooked.... maybe it is better to be a bad dancer and be safe because of good MM. think about it the point is to be complete and i dont doubt your dancing skills... i suggested the "cut in 20" exersize for your mindset.. greed fear and lack of focus
Yup. i love no leveraging.

or least. i use 0.01 micro lots. very flexible. when u are winning, compound more at psycho levels, when u feel it is at an end, lock and put up a sell.

rescuing is double-edged and not always safe. so far all my rescues all profit, but i need to sharpen my original blade so that i don need to rescue.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #28,806
  • Nov 5, 2011 4:22pm Nov 5, 2011 4:22pm
Quoting j-pax
if you are a good dancer.... you risk that the other parts of MO like mindset and money management get overlooked.... maybe it is better to be a bad dancer and be safe because of good MM. think about it the point is to be complete and i dont doubt your dancing skills... i suggested the "cut in 20" exersize for your mindset.. greed fear and lack of focus
I think fti teaches the most important is the dance - to pulse market rythm and flow with it. MM is what secures us against defeat. AOW: To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself. I tend to think "enemy" is a shifting metaphor (in the battlefield there is no permanent friend or foe, only alliances), in the AOW context enemy can be risk in the market battlefield, or if we play bull the enemy is bear and vice versa. The enemy can also be ourselves (scorpion if you like).

I agree MM is vitally important, we have all experienced days when P&L is positive but pip count is negative, or even very negative (P&L = position size x pip). This cannot happen without good MM, profit is profit and is better than loss but this way of winning means higher DD, it is not winning with ease the AOW way.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #28,807
  • Edited 4:48pm Nov 5, 2011 4:37pm | Edited 4:48pm
Quoting bumapatria
Yup. i love no leveraging.

or least. i use 0.01 micro lots. very flexible. when u are winning, compound more at psycho levels, when u feel it is at an end, lock and put up a sell.

rescuing is double-edged and not always safe. so far all my rescues all profit, but i need to sharpen my original blade so that i don need to rescue.
ask your self, if you have feelings like greed or fear is the 0.01 microlot ok? from 1 milion$ interbank lots and your 10.000$ micro lot!! if your account is under 10.000$ you trade pure leverage!!do your math.. are you safe?? i dont know the numbers but you should go back and see my discussion with simpleman.... wich maybe triggered FTi's last reply (and my posting so much lately!)

you are young and you can make it to the real deal!!! i cannot.. i would like to see you less talking, more asking and studiying and trading...
and maybe oneday, make everyone here proud we saw your beginning... i hate to see you disapear like many names i saw here!!!

i don't doubt you ...i challenge you...
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,808
  • Nov 5, 2011 5:10pm Nov 5, 2011 5:10pm
Quoting j-pax
ask your self, if you have feelings like greed or fear is the 0.01 microlot ok? from 1 milion$ interbank lots and your 10.000$ micro lot!! if your account is under 10.000$ you trade pure leverage!!do your math.. are you safe?? i dont know the numbers but you should go back and see my discussion with simpleman.... wich maybe triggered FTi's last reply (and my posting so much lately!)

you are young and you can make it to the real deal!!! i cannot.. i would like to see you less talking, more asking and studiying and trading...
and maybe oneday, make...
per pip $0.10

"Micro lots: minimum contract size is now 0.01 of a lot (1,000 units of base currency)"



http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/cnews/show/id/44/


0.10 mini lot is $10,000.



to my understanding 0.01 is one micro lot and is valued 1000 units of a currency.

if 1 lot, is 100,000
0.10 is 10,000
then 0.01 is 1000.

okay ill go away now, bye!

interbank leverage? i ddont trade on non-dealling desks and interbank brokers that have that awesome liquidity low spreads etc.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #28,809
  • Nov 5, 2011 5:27pm Nov 5, 2011 5:27pm
Quoting bumapatria
per pip $0.10

"Micro lots: minimum contract size is now 0.01 of a lot (1,000 units of base currency)"



http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/cnews/show/id/44/


0.10 mini lot is $10,000.



to my understanding 0.01 is one micro lot and is valued 1000 units of a currency.

if 1 lot, is 100,000
0.10 is 10,000
then 0.01 is 1000.

okay ill go away now, bye!

interbank leverage? i ddont trade on non-dealling desks and interbank brokers that have that awesome liquidity low...
Buma, 4000 plus post in less than 4 months you must be record holder.

Think about 4 decimal price feed compare to 5 decimal MT 4. FXCM market scope is 4 decimal therefore 0.10 is 1,000, 1.00 is 10,000 and £10 is 100,000.
  • #28,810
  • Nov 5, 2011 5:30pm Nov 5, 2011 5:30pm
Quoting bumapatria
per pip $0.10

"Micro lots: minimum contract size is now 0.01 of a lot (1,000 units of base currency)"



http://www.alpari.co.uk/en/cnews/show/id/44/


0.10 mini lot is $10,000.



to my understanding 0.01 is one micro lot and is valued 1000 units of a currency.

if 1 lot, is 100,000
0.10 is 10,000
then 0.01 is 1000.

okay ill go away now, bye!
yeah you confirm my thinking you trade too BIG... please think about it and maybe go some pages back to my discussion with simple man... i don't like to repeat myself... maybe i am wrong and you and simpleman have a 10.000+ account ... if not i am even more worried!!... if i am wrong accept my apologies and trade well
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,811
  • Nov 5, 2011 5:33pm Nov 5, 2011 5:33pm
Quoting j-pax
.

this means your scout is so small, you cannot be afraid!! you are prepaired for everything
you cannot be greedy, because you trade too small to make quick money... that's why they say "it's an ants job!!!"


pax
No afraid means fearless and could go against you. for me no fear means DEMO account. Your real test would be when you will come across your scorpion till then it is more like demo trading. But it is just me who thinks in this way and I am a person with different traits.
  • #28,812
  • Nov 5, 2011 5:41pm Nov 5, 2011 5:41pm
Quoting simpleman


No afraid means fearless and could go against you. for me no fear means DEMO account. Your real test would be when you will come across your scorpion till then it is more like demo trading. But it is just me who thinks in this way and I am a person with different traits.
i will ignore all that you say and ask your opinion on the art of war quote:'know your self self and know your enemy and you will win all 1000 battles" or something like that..... what do you think about what i said.

"your enemy has very much money... you have to have more money reletively speaking..."
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,813
  • Nov 5, 2011 5:47pm Nov 5, 2011 5:47pm
Quoting j-pax
i will ignore all that you say and ask your opinion on the art of war quote:'know your self self and know your enemy and you will win all 1000 battles" or something like that..... what do you think about what i said.

"your enemy has very much money... you have to have more money reletively speaking..."

Does that mean one should be fearless?
  • #28,814
  • Nov 5, 2011 5:52pm Nov 5, 2011 5:52pm
Quoting simpleman
Does that mean one should be fearless?
if you trade the right sizes you trade fearless...the filppsize is you have to work/trade hard to make some money.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,815
  • Edited Nov 6, 2011 12:06am Nov 5, 2011 10:20pm | Edited Nov 6, 2011 12:06am
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http://d3uwin5q170wpc.cloudfront.net.../9897_700b.jpg
  • #28,816
  • Nov 6, 2011 2:57am Nov 6, 2011 2:57am
Quoting indianguyinny24
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twrvl_C5Bfk


good one V

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  • #28,817
  • Nov 6, 2011 4:03am Nov 6, 2011 4:03am
Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #28,818
  • Nov 6, 2011 4:08am Nov 6, 2011 4:08am
Hi ppl!

It's really great to see so much life on this thread again. I will also contribute my 2pips worth. I think that pax has gotten most of the fundamentals right. At least that's how I understood fti's teaching too. I realized that to really dance with the market, you have to go where she wants to lead you. And that has to come with practice. If you re read fti's post again, he did warn of those that deviates from his teachings... I don't think that fti is being rigid in any sense, but he is probably well aware of the dangers of any deviations. I hope I have not offended anyone here, but just wanted to share what I believe is truly impt if we want to see success with fti's methodology.

Trade well and trade safe.

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,819
  • Nov 6, 2011 5:18am Nov 6, 2011 5:18am
FTI started his MM lessons with Wilder’s Loss Table - if you lose 10% you need to gain back 11% to break even and the difference increases exponentially. For example, lose 25% gain 33%, lose 50% gain 100%. In percentage terms, gain % for BE = (100 / (100-loss %)-1)*100
Or, if you start with $2 and lose $1, the remaining $1 need to gain 100% to make up the lost dollar. The catch word is “remaining” because losing means capital is shrinking. But what if loss is not locked and another $2 is added then the investment of $4 only need to gain $0.5 each (first $2 lose $1, last $2 gain $1) or retrace 50% of the $1 loss to BE. By virtue of not taking loss (not the same as never taking a loss) we turn Wilders Loss Table into a Rescue Table,
Retrace % for BE = (rescue troops / (rescue + wounded troops) )*100

For fti it is the only way to make up loss (“secure ourselves against defeat” the AOW way when market run against us during our time tenure) and professionals trade this way, but it is also a double edged sword that can kill us if we don’t have the right mindset, capitalization, skill and dedication.
Fti , March 2 2008,
Quote: “…….. your rescue is a minimum geometric spiral, smallest which is a fibo. You must also learn to wind a trend ride spiral correctly.
And if you cannot dance well, whatever your MM, it will still kill you.
So think carefully.
Remember rigidity kills”

When we use the smallest phi skew of Fibo numbers (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,……) we have a handy retrace ratios for BE without further calculation because each Fib no. is 1.618 of the last no. and 0.618 of sum of previous numbers (the higher the Fib level the closer to this ratio). As long as we stick with phi skew the retrace to BE ratio is always 0.382 = 0.618 / (1+0.618). Note this is retrace of Loss Pips (P)= difference between current and average price of our positions, and unless we sell at top or buy at bottom (P) is usually smaller than run leg (L). Only observation of the run leg itself can cue us to what kind of retrace ratio to expect from the market. FTI said he factor in volatility (sigma and vega) in his calcs, I don’t know Greek and I can only eye ball to see if the leg run is steep or gentle, done in orderly same color candles or wild salt and pepper hairy and leggy candles to make guestimate.

Fib retrace numbers are often self fulfilling prophecies because so many traders use them and all charting services provide this tool, for me ¼, 1/3, ½, 5/8, ¾ etc. is just as good. For strong trend don’t expect more than 25%, for raging bull or bear 10% may be. For this kind of dead in water positions we need minimum pi (not phi) skew on reset positions as base. If the retrace is over 78% the trend is not so strong or might reverse. A lot of peeps swear by 50% while 38.2% is good and conservative.

BTW we can “rescue” for BE or a portion of loss such as 70% for dire situation or “rescue” can turn into attack bearing in mind to position size to bring average price close to market if in loss and avoid being too close to market if in profit.

I often speculate why pigs get slaughtered. Apart from it is very hard to time the market perfectly it must have something to do with math. Each time we turn at a loss we shrink our capital base (Wilder’s Loss Table, Gain % always larger than loss %) while bull or bear make money because we have a chance to correct mistimed entries (Rescue Table, retrace BE % always smaller than loss %), the price is increased exposure (=risk).

Size of troops!? AOW talk of army corps of 12,500 men. fti mentioned professionals do not use leverage and divide their book 10 and 10 again for their risk size, not sure if it is correct to assume their troop size = 0.01 book. Since retail traders use leverage (who would trust their broker enough to deposit entire book) this would give 5,000, 10,000, 20,000 troops for leverages of 50, 100, 200 - not incompatible with AOW ancient army corps of 12,500. An early poster likes 1 troop = 0.1 book saying this allows him to trade in a relaxed way, further down the thread some seniors suggest 1 troop = book size, translates to fire power or no. of troops = max. broker leverage (50,100, 200). Fti cautioned not to risk more than 10% capital in rescue mode, and not more than 30% in attack mode. In one example he uses 20 troops (1,1,2,3,5,8), if I interpret 30% capital to be 30% fire power (book*leverage) it translates to 1 troop = 0.75 book, or number of troops 67, 133, 267 (for 50, 100, 200 leverage). If 20 troops is 10% fire power then 1 troop is 0.25*book, and no. of troops would be 200, 400, 800. FTI said he is much more aggressive and has more fire power in real life so I am guessing his troop relative to book size is considerably smaller. I have the privilege of watching Mamood demo using very small troop size relative to book , something like 0.1 lot (10,000) for 200,000 USD book trading EURUSD . Assuming EU quote = 1.4, troop size would be 0.07*book, giving 2857 troops at 200 leverage. This allows trading in a relaxed style and thunderbolt rescue for a few pips to BE - don’t try this at home unless you have mamood’s savvy.

Rgs
baifu
  • #28,820
  • Nov 6, 2011 1:06pm Nov 6, 2011 1:06pm
Chief,

any inputs what you think

http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/li...D&cn=uidTWASIA


V
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