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Elliot wave, Harmonic And Ichimoku in CHINESE STYLE

  • #6,081
  • Nov 4, 2011 5:50pm Nov 4, 2011 5:50pm
Hi Smilemiz,
I find your post very confusing.
Sometimes you write that EURUSD will go up to 1.42 and then other times you wirte that it will go below 1.20.

I have this question: how high do you think EURUSD will go before falling?
May be 1.3920?

Quoting smilemiz
EU update.. Ready?
  • #6,082
  • Nov 4, 2011 5:58pm Nov 4, 2011 5:58pm
Quoting marcb
Hi Smilemiz,
I find your post very confusing.
Sometimes you write that EURUSD will go up to 1.42 and then other times you wirte that it will go below 1.20.

I have this question: how high do you think EURUSD will go before falling?
May be 1.3920?
sorry.. marcb..

i am sorry..

i forgot to post here.. thats the last post i posted here..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...77#post5096777

yes.. the first target is 50% 1.392 but That's position i closed around 1.3861 due invalid's count
  • #6,083
  • Nov 4, 2011 6:06pm Nov 4, 2011 6:06pm
Quoting RamsesII
hey miza, happy to see you here and posting

one thing id like to know, is it possible for wave 2's to be a double zig-zag or is mostly wave b?
i think.. u know this answer...

double Zig Zag on wave 2 = yes and label change from ABC to WXY
and the equality wave 2 is more than enough 1/3 of wave 1

instead of simple Zig zag of wave 2 is 10% min or maximum 1/3 of wave 1

wave B is more complex

usually ZigZag.. no way.. in real time.. too many variation.. am i right?
Double corrective and Triple also possible
Yes also for the double ZgZg on Wave B!!!
  • #6,084
  • Nov 4, 2011 6:15pm Nov 4, 2011 6:15pm
Hi Miz,
thank you for your reply.
In your post below you'[re saying that EURUSD will go to 1.3920 and in your link it looks like EURUSD is going down from now on withiut going back to 1.3920.
Could you please clarify?
Thanks
Marc
Quoting smilemiz
sorry.. marcb..

i am sorry..

i forgot to post here.. thats the last post i posted here..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...77#post5096777

yes.. the first target is 50% 1.392 but That's position i closed around 1.3861 due invalid's count
  • #6,085
  • Nov 4, 2011 6:30pm Nov 4, 2011 6:30pm
Quoting marcb
Hi Miz,
thank you for your reply.
In your post below you'[re saying that EURUSD will go to 1.3920 and in your link it looks like EURUSD is going down from now on withiut going back to 1.3920.
Could you please clarify?
Thanks
Marc
Hi Marc





on last night.. I was trade and TP is 1.39 but its already closed 1.38
due unconfirmation and the last day of first week because thats my Intraday position
I am intraday too..
BUT... The count still valid..if.. I think Euro still have a chance to up first..but not for my trade..

before it.. I was posted the EURO(the link) with without double corrective ,just believe abc only

thats my first idea..

My swing is STILL BEARISH and just take some pips bullish in intraday


thats my art's of trading..

React = Trade
Predict = Analysis

trading is different from analysis..trading = put money to gain
analysis is ground work.. First, I am doing my hard analysis before trade



what u see of all my charts is my pure analysis first..Usually

So the main trend of EUROUSD is BEARISH.. OK?
  • #6,086
  • Nov 4, 2011 6:36pm Nov 4, 2011 6:36pm
plan the trade and trade the plan ...

i like it
Quoting smilemiz
React = Trade
Predict = Analysis
trading is different from analysis..trading = put money to gain
analysis is ground work.. First, I am doing my hard analysis before trade
not euphoria follower
  • #6,087
  • Nov 4, 2011 6:39pm Nov 4, 2011 6:39pm
Quoting smilemiz
Hi Marc





on last night.. I was trade and TP is 1.39 but its already closed 1.38
due unconfirmation and the last day of first week because thats my Intraday position
I am intraday too..
BUT... The count still valid..if.. I think Euro still have a chance to up first..but not for my trade..

before it.. I was posted the EURO(the link) with without double corrective ,just believe abc only

thats my first idea..

My swing is STILL BEARISH and just take some pips bullish in intraday


thats my art's of trading..

React = Trade
Predict = Analysis

trading...
this one also..(also posted at the other thread)

thought that it was abc.. instead of double

but the direction is correct..

My STRONGLY SAY BULLISH IN USDCHF ..
USDCAD might be too
Attached Image
  • #6,088
  • Nov 4, 2011 6:41pm Nov 4, 2011 6:41pm
Quoting smilemiz
i think.. u know this answer...

double Zig Zag on wave 2 = yes and label change from ABC to WXY
and the equality wave 2 is more than enough 1/3 of wave 1

instead of simple Zig zag of wave 2 is 10% min or maximum 1/3 of wave 1

wave B is more complex

usually ZigZag.. no way.. in real time.. too many variation.. am i right?
Double corrective and Triple also possible
Yes also for the double ZgZg on Wave B!!!

but Ramses.. yes usually double zigzag in wave 2 in Elliottwave only
  • #6,089
  • Nov 4, 2011 6:42pm Nov 4, 2011 6:42pm
Hi Smile,
I agree that EURUSD will go down, the question is:
what do you think will be the next maximum before it will start to go down ?
1.39 or 1.42 or ...?
Thanks!
Marc
Quoting smilemiz
Hi Marc





on last night.. I was trade and TP is 1.39 but its already closed 1.38
due unconfirmation and the last day of first week because thats my Intraday position
I am intraday too..
BUT... The count still valid..if.. I think Euro still have a chance to up first..but not for my trade..

before it.. I was posted the EURO(the link) with without double corrective ,just believe abc only

thats my first idea..

My swing is STILL BEARISH and just take some pips bullish in intraday


thats my art's of trading..

React = Trade
Predict...
  • #6,090
  • Nov 4, 2011 6:46pm Nov 4, 2011 6:46pm
Quoting smilemiz
i think... sorry to say.. it s wrong upas

how come wave II is bigger than wave I especialy in Larger Degree

Equality First


abc = flat.. and ur b of c flat.. is too almost near to 1.618 of a
and the maximum allowable is 1.382 (very rare)

C also wrong..

sorry.. by d way, u can improve it..never give up..

i never labels the waves EASILY
Quoting Upas
C 4 corrective so it can break 1 top, but cant break 2 bootom. On impulse it can`t break 1 wave top.

Quoting infinitus
count is wrong

You have an overlap in black I and IV
Upas.. even u are wrong..

u give me a new hint.... Thank you so much!
plz never give up
  • #6,091
  • Nov 4, 2011 6:52pm Nov 4, 2011 6:52pm
Quoting marcb
Hi Smile,
I agree that EURUSD will go down, the question is:
what do you think will be the next maximum before it will start to go down ?
1.39 or 1.42 or ...?
Thanks!
Marc
cant give u a good answer due of weekend..i hope u understand
we miss 2 days(<48 hours) to count..plz agree me .. be smart ..NO!! Be CLEVER!!

THATS WHY I CLOSED OR SL.. SL? no way

about set piece of my analysis never forgot the equality (one of the 7 R&Guidelines of EW)
EQUALITY x TIME x HORIZONTAL

Ok. I say from experience and enough of my wave analysis and observation
why not 1.39 on first

then i will open back. Scalp or Intraday..but IF!

If = unconfirmed

love ur money dont waste it!
  • #6,092
  • Nov 4, 2011 7:01pm Nov 4, 2011 7:01pm
Quoting infinitus
h) never ever forget and repeat this:

to change the mood of the herd you do not need to have an extrinsic reason. It normally changes without any reason
ah.. this quote can explain so well what happen on last night my analysis and trade

life of Elliottician

Thanks Markus
  • #6,093
  • Edited 6:25am Nov 5, 2011 6:02am | Edited 6:25am
Hello,

My alternate count of the EURUSD based on the Long Term Delta cycles:

I still consider the pattern since the low at 1.18 (2010) as Ending Diagonal because all sub waves were corrective. This pattern is wave “c” of wave [b] of wave “IV”.
At the high of 1.4940 (4th may), wave “1” of the ED pattern was finished. At the low of 1.3205 (4th oct), wave “b” of wave “2” has started and is still running. Wave “2” of the ED will last approx. until nov. 2012.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/507/ewtype1.gif/
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images...rusd90411.gif/
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images...urusd5411.gif/

Sixer
  • #6,094
  • Nov 5, 2011 9:20am Nov 5, 2011 9:20am
Quoting Upas
C 4 corrective so it can break 1 top, but cant break 2 bootom. On impulse it can`t break 1 wave top.


That is simply not true.

In an impulse wave 4 can not enter territory of wave 1

Since you showed an C wave "impulse", wave 4 can not reach into wave 1.

Maybe you try to count it as an ending diagonal, than normally all subdivisions of this impulse are corrective waves (ABC's). If this is the case, wave 1 and 4 can/have to overlap (but wave 4 can not break the base of wave 2).

When you label a triangle or a diagonal, you should give the reader a hint about your idea :-)
  • #6,095
  • Nov 5, 2011 9:39am Nov 5, 2011 9:39am
Quoting Sixer
Hello,

My alternate count of the EURUSD based on the Long Term Delta cycles:

I still consider the pattern since the low at 1.18 (2010) as Ending Diagonal because all sub waves were corrective. This pattern is wave “c” of wave [b] of wave “IV”.
At the high of 1.4940 (4th may), wave “1” of the ED pattern was finished. At the low of 1.3205 (4th oct), wave “b” of wave “2” has started and is still running. Wave “2” of the ED will last approx. until nov. 2012.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/507/ewtype1.gif/...


Hi Sixer,


nice to see you here again :-)

How are things going?

Would you mind to share your long term count since I am lost in your description :-(


One tough question:

If we are now in a wave 4's C-wave up, and in this C-Wave we are in wave 2 now, wouldn't that mean, that the end of this C-wave would be anywhere near 2 USD for 1 Euro?

You know, EW charting currencies is very special, since we have hear, unlike in stocks, heavily fundamentally triggered moves (as, e.g. rate hikes).

An kind of "epic" move to 2.0 or above NEEDS such a fundamental trigger, I think.

Where do you believe will this strength in Euro come from?

Looking at sentiment, over 60% of the market participants are bullish for Euro again


1.18 5% Euro bulls
1.49 96% Euro bulls
1.31 6% Euro bulls
1.42 65% Euro bulls

Wish you a nice weekend,


Markus
  • #6,096
  • Edited 11:00am Nov 5, 2011 10:37am | Edited 11:00am
Quoting smilemiz
i think... sorry to say.. it s wrong upas

how come wave II is bigger than wave I especialy in Larger Degree

Equality First


abc = flat.. and ur b of c flat.. is too almost near to 1.618 of a
and the maximum allowable is 1.382 (very rare)

C also wrong..

sorry.. by d way, u can improve it..never give up..

i never labels the waves EASILY
Yes i new in waves. But I will try to explain my count,
- Your A ok :5 A:
- then B must be B:3,
- And C:5 Your C is :3
Problem is,
- my A your b,
- my B your c
B=C:3 as abc=C:3=B
My counting B=C:3 as B=138.2 FR
So i need some help to finde out where is mistake, and why your b my A.
II will not be more then I.
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Attached Image
  • #6,097
  • Edited 10:58am Nov 5, 2011 10:45am | Edited 10:58am
Quoting infinitus
That is simply not true.

In an impulse wave 4 can not enter territory of wave 1

Since you showed an C wave "impulse", wave 4 can not reach into wave 1.

Maybe you try to count it as an ending diagonal, than normally all subdivisions of this impulse are corrective waves (ABC's). If this is the case, wave 1 and 4 can/have to overlap (but wave 4 can not break the base of wave 2).

When you label a triangle or a diagonal, you should give the reader a hint about your idea :-)
No My C is corrective. As wave II.
You should not say it cant overlap, as it can, and if it was. Then whe understand that it was corective. And also if it owerlap, then we can see as abcde:5. So we should waiting for abcde or expanding traingale. Most c or a is impulse, in zz then we have abc. If i am wrong, tel me why i will learn from it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,098
  • Nov 5, 2011 10:47am Nov 5, 2011 10:47am
Goldman Sachs will explain to you all soon
  • #6,099
  • Nov 5, 2011 11:22am Nov 5, 2011 11:22am
Greetings to Elliot fans,

I just polished my crystall ball and filled Euranalysis thread with wave stats.

Although my work is a bit different from what most of you see as Elliot wave trading, there are some wave stats you might be interested in.

If you are interested in some more stats, like lenght of waves, different timeframes, differet points for measuring or anything else, feel free to ask.

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
...
Enjoy weekend.

Tom
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,100
  • Nov 5, 2011 11:30am Nov 5, 2011 11:30am
Quoting Upas
No My C is corrective. As wave II.
You should not say it cant overlap, as it can, and if it was. Then whe understand that it was corective. And also if it owerlap, then we can see as abcde:5. So we should waiting for abcde or expanding traingale. Most c or a is impulse, in zz then we have abc. If i am wrong, tel me why i will learn from it.
Upas,

a C-Wave is never corrective. It is an motive wave by nature. But when market thinks, that the correction (the ABC) might be overdone, the C-wave impulse can evolve as an ending diagonal, which is an impulse (motive) wave but structure is corrective in form of ABC moves in normally each of the 5 waves

Read my post again. It stated clearly, that when you intended to count it as an ending diagonal

a) 4 and 1 can overlap

and

b) you should say it in your chart that you think it is an diagonal
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