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  • #22,141
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:49pm Nov 1, 2011 4:49pm
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
Not sure how one would view uj right now. Obvious support but thrown off by bar A. Any thoughts on how to analyze this?
First let me say that Sunday was another reminder of why I do not position trade and why I do not trade the Yen. Tell me again that the markets aren't manipulated. LOL.

I think the A, the Up Thrust on your chart, is now the high volume "skyscraper" bar. I would be looking to get short if price moved back into the area of the long shadow. Especially if it goes up there on high volume bars that close off the highs followed by narrow range up bars on volume less than the previous two intervals.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,142
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:40pm Nov 1, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting HiddenGap
First let me say that Sunday was another reminder of why I do not position trade and why I do not trade the Yen. Tell me again that the markets aren't manipulated. LOL.

I think the A, the Up Thrust on your chart, is now the high volume "skyscraper" bar. I would be looking to get short if price moved back into the area of the long shadow. Especially if it goes up there on high volume bars that close off the highs followed by narrow range up bars on volume less than the previous two intervals.
Referencing "manipulation" I think it would be wise to consider what and why we tanked today in the Euro. "Greek referendum"....right. It seems to me that today way used as short trap by large money. The signs are on the chart and the next 24 hours should prove it. Fri is a big day and don't be surprised to see a great number. Japanese would have held off intervening if the payrolls was going to be shit. Thats my take.
  • #22,143
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:51pm Nov 1, 2011 5:51pm
My motto is: Figure out what you want to see and where you want to see it.

What I like to see first is a climax volume bar. That does not always happen.

The first pic is of a just such a situation. We did not get our climax volume "start point". But what we did get was an Effort to Rise interval. An understanding of the price/volume action will take president over the lack of a "start point" volume interval.

The first thing we note is that 4 intervals after the Effort to Rise, we get a No Supply that technically does fill the hidden gap, but that is okay. It's okay because we are seeing a low volume down bar signifying that there is no supply within the range of a bar where there was above average activity (effort) to take prices up. Plus, the next interval is a test.

Things get interesting a bit later. Note that price leaves the zone and then comes back into the zone. Whilst the Hidden Gap is technically filled, we see that this time price can not fill the zone. More importantly, price does not get as low as it did on the No Supply interval. Instead, we see a KRB. So let's think of the logic. We have seen an Effort to Rise interval. Price came back into the range of that interval and found No Supply. The next time into this area, we are seeing bullish reversal price action. So rather than using a climax volume interval for our start point, we are using the Effort interval itself.

We get another long entry point at E2. Again, we can note the same thing as before. Price is not filling the gap (which is technically already filled) and it is not trading lower than the initial No Supply candle. After seeing No Selling Pressure followed by a Squat, we see an Outside Key Reversal. Another chance to get long.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,144
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:55pm Nov 1, 2011 5:55pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Referencing "manipulation" I think it would be wise to consider what and why we tanked today in the Euro. "Greek referendum"....right. It seems to me that today way used as short trap by large money. The signs are on the chart and the next 24 hours should prove it. Fri is a big day and don't be surprised to see a great number. Japanese would have held off intervening if the payrolls was going to be shit. Thats my take.
That may well be. You're far smarter than I am. I just look for what I want to see where I want to see it.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,145
  • Nov 1, 2011 6:21pm Nov 1, 2011 6:21pm
demotrade due to time of day.

A-Supply coming in
B - No demand-ish
C- Upthrust
D- No demand
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  • #22,146
  • Nov 2, 2011 9:32pm Nov 2, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Referencing "manipulation" I think it would be wise to consider what and why we tanked today in the Euro. "Greek referendum"....right. It seems to me that today way used as short trap by large money. The signs are on the chart and the next 24 hours should prove it. Fri is a big day and don't be surprised to see a great number. Japanese would have held off intervening if the payrolls was going to be shit. Thats my take.
We did rise however have completely sold off. Is anybody making real money in currency as of late? I will admit that I have not been and am no longer focusing on forex and instead am exclusively trading indexes and commodities. Maybe its just me but as of late flipping a coin gives me a better edge.
  • #22,147
  • Nov 3, 2011 3:29am Nov 3, 2011 3:29am
yea.... I'm on the same boat, lately even the very high probability trades have been failing for some reason, and I just cant figure it out.
Quoting Sonofsin5
We did rise however have completely sold off. Is anybody making real money in currency as of late? I will admit that I have not been and am no longer focusing on forex and instead am exclusively trading indexes and commodities. Maybe its just me but as of late flipping a coin gives me a better edge.
  • #22,148
  • Nov 3, 2011 3:33am Nov 3, 2011 3:33am
Quoting apple_sauce
yea.... I'm on the same boat, lately even the very high probability trades have been failing for some reason, and I just cant figure it out.

You're not alone. It has been a total bust for me. The best trade in in the last 8 trading sessions was one where I exited at break-even. Tough to make money in this market lately as you said.
  • #22,149
  • Nov 3, 2011 6:25am Nov 3, 2011 6:25am
Quoting HiddenGap
My motto is: Figure out what you want to see and where you want to see it.

What I like to see first is a climax volume bar. That does not always happen.

The first pic is of a just such a situation. We did not get our climax volume "start point". But what we did get was an Effort to Rise interval. An understanding of the price/volume action will take president over the lack of a "start point" volume interval.

The first thing we note is that 4 intervals after the Effort to Rise, we get a No Supply that technically does fill the hidden gap,...
great analysis, indeed! thanks again
  • #22,150
  • Nov 3, 2011 9:33am Nov 3, 2011 9:33am
We haven't had one of these in awhile.

Very interesting Price Action prior to the "Surprise" rate cut by the ECB. Take a look at the chart below. We can see clear signs of distribution ahead of the news release. The BBs were getting short in what would seem to be anticipation of a cut by the ECB.

The most curios interval is the Test two intervals before the news release. This Test fails. Which means there is still supply (sellers) in the market. One interval after we see the test fail, the news comes out and prices collapse. The news interval does turn out to close well off its lows on Ultra High Volume making it a Shake Out, but the initial down thrust was Cleary anticipated by the BBs. Moreover, the interval after the Shake Out is down suggesting possible further weakness. Ultimately the test on the right edge fails and price continues on its downward trajectory.

Unfortunately, I missed this but the BBs were certainly telegraphing that they knew something before the rest of us did.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,151
  • Nov 3, 2011 10:02am Nov 3, 2011 10:02am
looks like most of the selling has been absorbed in the last hour, and the market is refusing to break support. I think were seeing accumulation. I'm waiting to see a break of that upper resistance line and then a test to get long, but we might not see that this week if at all.
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  • #22,152
  • Nov 3, 2011 10:16am Nov 3, 2011 10:16am
Quoting apple_sauce
looks like most of the selling has been absorbed in the last hour, and the market is refusing to break support. I think were seeing accumulation. I'm waiting to see a break of that upper resistance line and then a test to get long, but we might not see that this week if at all.
those last 2 bars look like a two bar reversal with heavy supply on that last wide spread up bar, whats the time frame on there?
  • #22,153
  • Nov 3, 2011 10:42am Nov 3, 2011 10:42am
Quoting HiddenGap
First let me say that Sunday was another reminder of why I do not position trade and why I do not trade the Yen. Tell me again that the markets aren't manipulated. LOL.

I think the A, the Up Thrust on your chart, is now the high volume "skyscraper" bar. I would be looking to get short if price moved back into the area of the long shadow. Especially if it goes up there on high volume bars that close off the highs followed by narrow range up bars on volume less than the previous two intervals.
amazing how smart money stopped out all the shorts on that trade..manipulation is alive and well
  • #22,154
  • Nov 3, 2011 11:02am Nov 3, 2011 11:02am
All this talk of manipulation - how does one define that? Bet you it's very different for everyone.

Bottom line is, if there was no manipulation, price would never move.
  • #22,155
  • Nov 3, 2011 12:45pm Nov 3, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting Beljevina

Bottom line is, if there was no manipulation, price would never move.
I disagree with that statement. Supply and demand always changes therefore price must always change. Free markets are a beautiful thing, they allow us to determine value as accurately as possible.

Here is a beautiful setup that I missed unfortunately. I love how there are so many signs of weakness stacked together. We have a down trend in the background. Then we see some buying, but on the next bar we see an UT so we know market is still weak. Two test's which fail immediately and then a ND. Notice how the spread of the ND bar is the same as the previous, but the vol is considerably lower and the close is in the middle. Also notice how all this is in the body of the UT, therefore whatever buying is present is not enough to push through the high of that UT.
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  • #22,156
  • Nov 3, 2011 2:05pm Nov 3, 2011 2:05pm
were right on a very important level. If we continue up then this is very bullish. if we reject now then its very bearish.
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  • #22,157
  • Nov 3, 2011 2:22pm Nov 3, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting apple_sauce
I disagree with that statement. Supply and demand always changes therefore price must always change. Free markets are a beautiful thing, they allow us to determine value as accurately as possible.

Here is a beautiful setup that I missed unfortunately. I love how there are so many signs of weakness stacked together. We have a down trend in the background. Then we see some buying, but on the next bar we see an UT so we know market is still weak. Two test's which fail immediately and then a ND. Notice how the spread of the ND bar is the...
Manipulation/ "news" creates supply or demand.
  • #22,158
  • Nov 3, 2011 4:25pm Nov 3, 2011 4:25pm
Quoting apple_sauce
were right on a very important level. If we continue up then this is very bullish. if we reject now then its very bearish.
yeah very important one. In theory we should not break that level until see tomorrow news... I closed my long at that level. Lets see Tomorrow these days they were accumulating or distributing.
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #22,159
  • Nov 4, 2011 9:35am Nov 4, 2011 9:35am
News Trading. The appropriate thing to do in regards to the news is to not try and trade the news itself, but rather the reaction to the news. It does not matter whether the number is above consensus or below consensus. It does not matter what a positive number "means", or what a negative number "means". What matters is how price reacts to the news.

Take a look at the chart below.

This is really VSA 101 here:

1. When weakness appears it usually appears on UP bars/candles. Markets do not like high volume UP bars/candles because they can contain hidden selling.

2. The SM uses news releases to wrong-foot the herd. More basically, the SM uses the increased activity of a news release to take their positions because they need the added liquidity due to the size they trade.

A. The Jobs report comes out. We see a wide spread up bar on Ultra High Volume that closes well of its high. In fact, its roughly in the middle of the range. If all the volume (activity) on this interval is demand (buying), then how can price close so far off the high? It couldn't. There must be some supply (selling) on this bar therefore.

CNBC is reporting that although the "headline" number is below expectations, the revisions to last months numbers makes the overall report "better than expected". The SM is selling on good news, just as the herd is gaining some confidence due to the good news.

B. First we note that this interval is up. Since it is up it does not confirm the weakness of interval A in that aspect. It does, however, confirm the weakness of A in others. This range should not be narrow and closing even lower within its range if the previous bar was all buying. Taking a closer look at this interval itself, we see a narrow range up bar that closes in its lower 1/3 on decreasing but still Ultra High Volume. What is of note is that it makes a higher high than the previous bar making it a misnamed "buying bar". This mark up into somewhat fresh new territory and then fall on high volume is indicative of an Up Thrust.

C. This interval completes the sequence. Narrow range up interval on volume less than the previous two intervals that closes in the middle of its range-this is No Demand.

Let's back up a couple of intervals for a quick second. Notice that after price moved down below A, there was a move back into the price range of A. This attempt was on a wide spread bar with volume less than the previous two intervals. This was No Buying Pressure. If this was a strong bar, then why would the activity (volume) be decreasing? Bearish volume is increasing volume on down bars and decreasing volume on up bars (more on this later).

If we take a look at the interval just prior to the No Demand (C), this interval is also moving up on volume less than the previous two intervals. In truth, it is a No Demand interval itself that does not confirm with the next interval down. That next interval of course turns out to be C. Whilst we want to focus on VSA and VSA does not look at the open, it is noteworthy that this interval is a Doji.

D. As previously stated, bearish volume is increasing volume on down bars and decreasing volume on up bars. The opposite is true for bullish volume. That is to say, bullish volume is increasing volume on up bars and decreasing volume on down bars. After the ND, we get an slight increasing range down interval but on decreasing volume. Think about the logic here. If the ND means that the BBs were not active nor interested in higher prices, why then are they still not active as price falls? If the Smart Money was not buying on the up interval because they were bearish, then shouldn't they be selling on the down interval for the very same reason? This interval is No Selling Pressure.

E. If the Smart Money was not active on the up interval (No Demand) and were even less active on the following down interval (No Selling Pressure), then we need some additional information to find out their true intent. How is that done? It's done through a Test. Those interested in taking prices higher, will first mark price down to cause any bears to show themselves. One way the bears show themselves is through a failed test. A test fails if the next bar is down. This is the case with E.

They key here, is that we need to understand what is being tested when we see an interval that looks like a test. And as I have said before, this is why Tests are different than No Demands.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,160
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:12am Nov 4, 2011 10:12am
Quoting HiddenGap
News Trading. The appropriate thing to do in regards to the news is to not try and trade the news itself, but rather the reaction to the news. It does not matter whether the number is above consensus or below consensus. It does not matter what a positive number "means", or what a negative number "means". What matters is how price reacts to the news.

Take a look at the chart below.

This is really VSA 101 here:

1. When weakness appears it usually appears on UP bars/candles. Markets do not like high volume UP bars/candles because they...


An excellent walk-through as always,i've learn't so much from your posts

Im thinking about putting all your posts together and making a PDF out of them,like a new vsa "master the markets"

Just a quick question regarding your charting platform,which one do you use coz i really like that 3d type view??


ALSO,the supply/demand delta zone is the open and close of the big momentum interval down?? Is that WRB analysis??

Similarly,the hidden gap is from the WRB study i presume?? I have looked at that briefly,what would you advise if i wanted to learn more with regard to WRB and how you incorporate the two???
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