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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,761
  • Nov 3, 2011 3:30pm Nov 3, 2011 3:30pm
Quoting Baifu
Just came across this informative fti post from Jan 2008 during my re-reading, I will paste it since the thread is quiet.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post1812957

"Hi Green David,
Sorry to hear of your mis-adventure.

If You don't mind, a few mindset problems detected.
1. Don't create fixed mindset, flow with the market as best you can.
Interest rate opnion sure snooked you mindset.
Moreover swift 2to 3 big fig moves are not so uncommon.

  • #28,762
  • Nov 3, 2011 3:45pm Nov 3, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting simpleman
mixture of attacks and rescue, didn't go as expected but still came out with green pips, should have tried Aussie. Ready to have your constructive opinions.


443608813000005454NZD/USD1B0.79630.79517-11.3
443724483000005454NZD/USD1B0.795490.79517-3.2
443734073000005454NZD/USD1B0.794470.795177
443734993000005454NZD/USD1B0.793250.7951719.2
443749173000005454NZD/USD1B0.797020.79517-18.5
444218623000005454NZD/USD2B0.788750.789174.2
444269753000005454NZD/USD2B0.790450.7951747.2
Total...
how many total troops you have...

whats your worst drawdown....


V
  • #28,763
  • Nov 3, 2011 3:52pm Nov 3, 2011 3:52pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
how many total troops you have...

whats your worst drawdown....


V

Hi V,

1+1+1+1+1+2+2=9 position. worst draw down was about 4-5% I think
  • #28,764
  • Nov 3, 2011 3:54pm Nov 3, 2011 3:54pm
Quoting simpleman
Hi V,

1+1+1+1+1+2+2=9 position. worst draw down was about 4-5% I think
total troops you have ...how many troops were still outside... and you said you're drawdown is 4-5%...how muhc avg you making daily???


V
  • #28,765
  • Nov 3, 2011 3:56pm Nov 3, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting simpleman
mixture of attacks and rescue, didn't go as expected but still came out with green pips, should have tried Aussie. Ready to have your constructive opinions.


44360881 3000005454 NZD/USD 1 B 0.7963 0.79517 -11.3
44372448 3000005454 NZD/USD 1 B 0.79549 0.79517 -3.2
44373407 3000005454 NZD/USD 1 B 0.79447 0.79517 7
44373499 3000005454 NZD/USD 1 B 0.79325 0.79517 19.2
44374917 3000005454 NZD/USD 1 B 0.79702 0.79517 -18.5
44421862 3000005454...
hello simpleman, good to see you made some money in this crazy day. i am no good in seeing your numbers on the chart.. sorry.

what do you think about the exercize by Fti ?.. baifu posted above.
i cannot cut my position in 20 because i start with 10 oanda units.. so will cut in 10.
if you cannot cut your initial size you are probably undercapitalized for this way of trading.
maybe i am

you say "did not go as expected"... try not to expect anything and you will not be suprised.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,766
  • Nov 3, 2011 4:01pm Nov 3, 2011 4:01pm
An explanation of why the EU is having so many problems.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_problems.jpg Size: 59 KB
  • #28,767
  • Nov 3, 2011 4:11pm Nov 3, 2011 4:11pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
total troops you have ...how many troops were still outside... and you said you're drawdown is 4-5%...how muhc avg you making daily???


V
I can't say how much I make money because I don't trade daily as I have full time job but whenever I am off I try to practice this strategy in live account.

I didn't understand your question "troops outside"
  • #28,768
  • Nov 3, 2011 4:14pm Nov 3, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting j-pax
hello simpleman, good to see you made some money in this crazy day. i am no good in seeing your numbers on the chart.. sorry.

what do you think about the exercize by Fti ?.. baifu posted above.
i cannot cut my position in 20 because i start with 10 oanda units.. so will cut in 10.
if you cannot cut your initial size you are probably undercapitalized for this way of trading.
maybe i am

you say "did not go as expected"... try not to expect anything and you will not be suprised.

Yes I will do that, but it will take time to get to that level.

You are correct only " expect the unexpected".
  • #28,769
  • Nov 3, 2011 4:14pm Nov 3, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting simpleman
I can't say how much I make money because I don't trade daily as I have full time job but whenever I am off I try to practice this strategy in live account.

I didn't understand your question "troops outside"

i have 100 troops when i trade aka if i have 1 scout in 99 are there for me to attack /rescue ..
keeping the numbers sames...
so lets say i have total of 100,000 oanda units... my scout will be 1000 and then next attack or rescue can be 1000 or 2000 and so on...

if i have 9 troops in the market i have around 91 to rescue /attack...

how much you have total troops...

also doesnt matter you trade even 1 day a a month how much you make in one day that month...as i try to keep my drawdown avg money * 3


V
  • #28,770
  • Edited 4:34pm Nov 3, 2011 4:15pm | Edited 4:34pm
Quoting Zoran
An explanation of why the EU is having so many problems.
another explanation


Inserted Video


i got a good tweet today from @coombscnbc: something like: "chaos crisis and drama" are all greek words but "collapse" has latin origins collapsus
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,771
  • Nov 3, 2011 4:23pm Nov 3, 2011 4:23pm
Quoting simpleman
Yes I will do that, but it will take time to get to that level.

You are correct only " expect the unexpected".
i looked at your profile and saw you use FXCM as your broker... i don't know this broker but their microlot is probably 100 units... many people here trade Oanda or since you are in the UK you can also check out RBS market index... there you can trade single dollars. this makes MM possible for me.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,772
  • Nov 3, 2011 4:33pm Nov 3, 2011 4:33pm
Quoting j-pax
i looked at your profile and saw you use FXCM as your broker... i don't know this broker but their microlot is probably 100 units... many people here trade Oanda or since you are in the UK you can also check out RBS market index... there you can trade single dollars. this makes MM possible for me.
FXCM market scope allows micro lot so not a problem for me.Thanks
  • #28,773
  • Nov 3, 2011 4:35pm Nov 3, 2011 4:35pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
i have 100 troops when i trade aka if i have 1 scout in 99 are there for me to attack /rescue ..
keeping the numbers sames...
so lets say i have total of 100,000 oanda units... my scout will be 1000 and then next attack or rescue can be 1000 or 2000 and so on...

if i have 9 troops in the market i have around 91 to rescue /attack...

how much you have total troops...

also doesnt matter you trade even 1 day a a month how much you make in one day that month...as i try to keep my drawdown avg money * 3


V


My account size is small and therefore it is 1000 troops.

I can't tell you in money how much I make but in % terms in the last trade I made about 1.5%.

Thanks buddy
  • #28,774
  • Edited 5:04pm Nov 3, 2011 4:44pm | Edited 5:04pm
Quoting simpleman
FXCM market scope allows micro lot so not a problem for me.Thanks
sorry if i am wrong!! i saw on their site "small 1K. lots" i think that means 1000 unit size lots (and they offer 50$ accounts??).... my scout is 10 units with a 125 $ account... for me to be trading FXCM would mean a 12.500 $ account...

i did a quick search so i could be wrong on their lot size.

EDIT: no not wrong, they state: "you can limit your cost per pip to about $0.10....with a 50$ account" so 200 up and 200 down 200 up today could mean -60$ lost ...

you make good money because the risk is high... i hope you consider what i say and be safe... that is why i reply to you... not to critisize you
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,775
  • Nov 3, 2011 5:04pm Nov 3, 2011 5:04pm
Quoting j-pax
sorry if i am wrong!! i saw on their site "small 1K. lots" that means 1000 unit size lots.... my scout is 10 units with a 125 $ account... for me to be trading FXCM would mean a 12.500 $ account...

i did a quick search so i could be wrong on their lot size
The easiest way I can explain is 1 pip = 0.10 cents.
  • #28,776
  • Nov 3, 2011 5:08pm Nov 3, 2011 5:08pm
Quoting simpleman
The easiest way I can explain is 1 pip = 0.10 cents.
yes, i understand please read my reply EDIT above your one.. and remember the FTI post baifu reposted where he said 500 pip moves sometimes happen. wrong! he said:"5 big fig (500pips) volatility mindset is more realistic" after news releases.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,777
  • Nov 3, 2011 5:22pm Nov 3, 2011 5:22pm
i go and sleep almost... so i hope you understand i try to help...

i believe what is teached here we need firepower because there is a lot of "killing" going on... or seek shelter.

Inserted Video



Inserted Video


good night... pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,778
  • Nov 3, 2011 5:30pm Nov 3, 2011 5:30pm
Quoting j-pax
yes, i understand please read my reply EDIT above your one.. and remember the FTI post baifu reposted where he said 500 pip moves sometimes happen. wrong! he said:"5 big fig (500pips) volatility mindset is more realistic" after news releases.
Sorry, my account is bigger than £125, that is the reason I haven't changed my broker. If I have understood it correctly then the account can look after 500 pips move. Please check one of Leigh's spread sheet.

Edit: The max loss I can afford is 10% on any one trade.
Edit2: When I loose 200 pips means $20, now you can work it out my risk is within the parameters and 1000 pips loss in total would be $100
  • #28,779
  • Nov 3, 2011 5:37pm Nov 3, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting simpleman
Sorry, my account is bigger than £125, that is the reason I haven't changed my broker. If I have understood it correctly then the account can look after 500 pips move. Please check on of Leigh's spread sheet.
ok that's good to hear!! i believe leigh's spread sheat was a no no >> could be wrong but i have to check it later... i go and sleep..... trade well and carefull in these strange times... i hope you see i mean no disrespect.

regards pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,780
  • Nov 3, 2011 5:40pm Nov 3, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting j-pax
ok that's good to hear!! i believe leigh's spread sheat was a no no >> could be wrong but i have to check it later... i go and sleep..... trade well and carefull in these strange times... i hope you see i mean no disrespect.

regards pax
It is a no no if you fall into trap of greed.
No trading for me tomorrow cos NFP and full time job.
I like criticism, it makes me better trader.
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