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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,741
  • Nov 2, 2011 10:18pm Nov 2, 2011 10:18pm
Quoting sumakianlee
thx N for the replay

may i know whether you are trading just wait for a new impulse as I do?

regard
suma
Hi Suma,

I am not trading at the moment. I usually trade the NY session only.


Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,742
  • Nov 3, 2011 1:45am Nov 3, 2011 1:45am
Hi,

Anybody knows how DutchAngel is doing?

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,743
  • Nov 3, 2011 6:02am Nov 3, 2011 6:02am
The silence is deafening...
  • #28,744
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:00am Nov 3, 2011 8:00am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi,

Anybody knows how DutchAngel is doing?

Regards
Jonathan
Not sure either, haven't heard from her for a while
  • #28,745
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:04am Nov 3, 2011 8:04am
WOW! Starwars in E/U... Cbs war online?
  • #28,746
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:08am Nov 3, 2011 8:08am
Quoting Fana
WOW! Starwars in E/U... Cbs war online?
hi Fana, ECB cut rates by 0.25... so dragi want to be more active???
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,747
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:10am Nov 3, 2011 8:10am
Quoting j-pax
hi Fana, ECB cut rates by 0.25... so dragi want to be more active???
Hi Jacco. Thanx for info...
  • #28,748
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:14am Nov 3, 2011 8:14am
Quoting Fana
Hi Jacco. Thanx for info...
also mario dragi is going to have a press conference soon and this could mean more volatility... trade well and carefull
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,749
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:24am Nov 3, 2011 8:24am
hello everyone trading with oanda (europe).. i found a function. in the indicator window left below... normaly we don't look here... there is a news indicator... it draws lines where news releases are and the numbers upper left in the chart

pressconference starts
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,750
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:31am Nov 3, 2011 8:31am
Quoting j-pax
hello everyone trading with oanda (europe).. i found a function. in the indicator window left below... normaly we don't look here... there is a news indicator... it draws lines where news releases are and the numbers upper left in the chart
mine just places a small flag of the corresponding currency at the bottom of the chart at the appropriate time, placing the cursor on the flag shows what news release is noted in the upper left corner of the screen
  • #28,751
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:32am Nov 3, 2011 8:32am
Quoting j-pax
hello everyone trading with oanda (europe).. i found a function. in the indicator window left below... normaly we don't look here... there is a news indicator... it draws lines where news releases are and the numbers upper left in the chart
Thanks! Cool - with eyes open you see well, better than you think
  • #28,752
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:36am Nov 3, 2011 8:36am
Quoting auxesis
mine just places a small flag of the corresponding currency at the bottom of the chart at the appropriate time, placing the cursor on the flag shows what news release is noted in the upper left corner of the screen
yes i have another platform open now but i believe you can rightclick on the band with flags and choose some options... hope it works
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,753
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:39am Nov 3, 2011 8:39am
Quoting j-pax
yes i have another platform open now but i believe you can rightclick on the band with flags and choose some options... hope it works
Cool, thanks
  • #28,754
  • Nov 3, 2011 10:06am Nov 3, 2011 10:06am
Quoting j-pax
hello everyone trading with oanda (europe).. i found a function. in the indicator window left below... normaly we don't look here... there is a news indicator... it draws lines where news releases are and the numbers upper left in the chart

pressconference starts
Thank you very much!

Good job!
  • #28,755
  • Edited 1:33pm Nov 3, 2011 1:19pm | Edited 1:33pm
Just came across this informative fti post from Jan 2008 during my re-reading, I will paste it since the thread is quiet.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post1812957

"Hi Green David,
Sorry to hear of your mis-adventure.

If You don't mind, a few mindset problems detected.
1. Don't create fixed mindset, flow with the market as best you can.
Interest rate opnion sure snooked you mindset.
Moreover swift 2to 3 big fig moves are not so uncommon.
So that thinking is wrong. Markets do regularly do these moves.
esp when fundamental figures are released. 5 big fig (500pips) volatility mindset is more realistic. Thats why you must be babysitting positions always.
Although the way the market took down was wierd, be wary that it can happen, therefore be mindful of the MM. Never risk more than 10% of your account on a single trade. If you do be fast to react if adverse.

2. Spiral for rescue uses big money to save bad positions, therefore do not overstay.
When riding profits, add to them in linear small,
so as never to allow a good position to turn bad.
You may find that over time, your positions that makes better ROI
are those that started out badly timed but in the right directional trend.

Normally the good first entry trades have lesser ROI,
this is due to the human nature.
Mankind seems to find courage and bravery in adverse situations.
This is one of the reasons to have a fibo spiral rescue and a linear constant attack.
The rescues are of shorter tenure and the attacks should have a longer attack tenure(multiple attack sequences).
This allows for rescue of capital on bad timing and ability to ride on long trends moves.
As on longer tenure trend rides, you may have short strong attacks when you detect opportunities, but do not overstay the strong attacks for too long, leave only the smaller positions to ride.
It is always very difficult to ride trends with large positions, easier on the mind with small positions.
The strong attacks can help by stretching the trend for the overall position, but be mindful of overstaying, it is truly very hard to ride with large positions as it will make your mind unstable with greed/fear factor.
Remember this lesson.

3. Remember that retracements can be in abc wave sequenses , but in levels these should conform to the Elliott's wave finding. Waves that take back more than 50% of initial impluse wave are not trend strong and can mutate esily to reversal. So when that happens be wary to wind down your expanding spiral as it progresses taking out non losing levels to reduce exposures. In this sequenses do not add aggressively to trend ride , as already determined, that the trend is not strong impluse.

4. Again, do not allow your position to control your mindset, use the dance to adjust your positional mindset. When indoubt, wait for clearer mind. If unclear, use benefit of doubt.
----- "

Edit: for newcomers I should add linear constant etc. is just one example of many examples of attack-rescue sequences discussed in the thread. Also the examples are just examples, it is up to us to work out our own strategy, MO and MM, there is no holy grail hidden inside the thread to be discovered.
  • #28,756
  • Nov 3, 2011 2:17pm Nov 3, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting Baifu
Just came across this informative fti post from Jan 2008 during my re-reading, I will paste it since the thread is quiet.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post1812957

"Hi Green David,
Sorry to hear of your mis-adventure.

If You don't mind, a few mindset problems detected.
1. Don't create fixed mindset, flow with the market as best you can.
Interest rate opnion sure snooked you mindset.
Moreover swift 2to 3 big fig moves are not so uncommon.
So that thinking is wrong. Markets do regularly do these moves.
esp when...

Baifu,

Thanks for the repost.

I have read this thread at least 3 times and still find somthing I need to hear always at the right time. Think I will print this one and put it on the wall as a reminder.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #28,757
  • Nov 3, 2011 2:40pm Nov 3, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting tubguy
Baifu,

Thanks for the repost.

I have read this thread at least 3 times and still find somthing I need to hear always at the right time. Think I will print this one and put it on the wall as a reminder.

Good Trading
Mike
Just happy someone finds it helpful, further up on the same page, some new comers (not you) might find this helpful.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...27#post1812727
" --- To improve skills, cut trading position to 20 units of position.
Choose a trend attempt , then trade the 20 positions one at a time. Dance with the flow.You will discover how, all I have shown you in AOW will assist in your ability to dance.

The objective, try to be profitable in all the 20 positions.

Then analyse your trading , figure how you may have improved by imposing skew. Do it again for a few times, change the skew. there are many lessons to learn , and the market will teach you. Best done in demo until you are good dancer."
  • #28,758
  • Nov 3, 2011 3:08pm Nov 3, 2011 3:08pm
Quoting Baifu
Just happy someone finds it helpful, further up on the same page, some new comers (not you) might find this helpful.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...27#post1812727
" --- To improve skills, cut trading position to 20 units of position.
Choose a trend attempt , then trade the 20 positions one at a time. Dance with the flow.You will discover how, all I have shown you in AOW will assist in your ability to dance.

The objective, try to be profitable in all the 20 positions.

Then analyse your trading , figure how you...

I'm sure we could all use a refresher from time to time. I know I need it all the time.
  • #28,759
  • Nov 3, 2011 3:21pm Nov 3, 2011 3:21pm
Quoting Baifu
Just happy someone finds it helpful, further up on the same page, some new comers (not you) might find this helpful.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...27#post1812727
" --- To improve skills, cut trading position to 20 units of position.
Choose a trend attempt , then trade the 20 positions one at a time. Dance with the flow.You will discover how, all I have shown you in AOW will assist in your ability to dance.

The objective, try to be profitable in all the 20 positions.

Then analyse your trading , figure how you...
thank you for both reminders... the second has slipped my attention and will add it to my notes and try it!!.

i had a problem with concentrating... i cut my trading sizes a couple of times soo i could be more active.. this helped me a lot. if someone has a concentration problem ... try it
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,760
  • Nov 3, 2011 3:27pm Nov 3, 2011 3:27pm
mixture of attacks and rescue, didn't go as expected but still came out with green pips, should have tried Aussie. Ready to have your constructive opinions.


443608813000005454NZD/USD1B0.79630.79517-11.3
443724483000005454NZD/USD1B0.795490.79517-3.2
443734073000005454NZD/USD1B0.794470.795177
443734993000005454NZD/USD1B0.793250.7951719.2
443749173000005454NZD/USD1B0.797020.79517-18.5
444218623000005454NZD/USD2B0.788750.789174.2
444269753000005454NZD/USD2B0.790450.7951747.2
Total 9 44.6
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