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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,701
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:14pm Nov 1, 2011 9:14pm
Quoting fti
yes, vic, when you feel that.
then you must learn trust it and ways to mediate the change.
if terrain changes, then must adjust.


regards
i dont know chief... we have phrase in india....

if you point a finger to some one...three finger are pointing to you ... it means is..

at the end the trading comes back to you only...it just shows u the mirror...

BTW how r energy levels....

V
  • #28,702
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:16pm Nov 1, 2011 9:16pm
Quoting bumapatria
really? fti, what are the chances in your opinion of the qe3 hapening today? i was thinking of that yesterday as a black swan event..

what are your thoughts on it?

i think fed would wait tad longer perhaps one more motnh for qe3 or next week possibly.

what do you think fti?
deflation is what they wanted to avoid in QE2, is it the same case on qe3 possibility? ive seen Positive us data increase, bt obviously less than what is needed.
if this black swan happens, what can we do to predict its coming?
your age i didn't even knew D for deflation....

u do have a big appetite of curiosity.....keep it up....

V
  • #28,703
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:16pm Nov 1, 2011 9:16pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...79U5PQ20111102


Now tell me .... what is greece thinking... playing a game of chess....


V
  • #28,704
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:20pm Nov 1, 2011 9:20pm
[really? fti, what are the chances in your opinion of the qe3 hapening today? i was thinking of that yesterday as a black swan event..
what are your thoughts on it?

i think fed would wait tad longer perhaps one more motnh for qe3 or next week possibly.

what do you think fti?
deflation is what they wanted to avoid in QE2, is it the same case on qe3 possibility? ive seen Positive us data increase, bt obviously less than what is needed.
if this black swan happens, what can we do to predict its coming?]

these the dangers.
i highlighted in your message i red.
If you're not aware, tonight is fomc rates night.

regards
  • #28,705
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:33pm Nov 1, 2011 9:33pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...79U5PQ20111102


Now tell me .... what is greece thinking... playing a game of chess....


V
Vic, it doesn't matter to markets.
Whats rotting is clear already, is only whether euro they can get their act together.
Whole world went into detaling the euro events looking for the rainbow.
Unfortunately we only met with deception and lies.
So even i not interested to hear anything about it until markets cheers with good news.
No cheers, then assume rotting.

The greek govt had better stop all these distractions and focus looking after the goodwill of her citizens.
Whether euro able to pull rabbit out of hat, or how they want to do it, is politics.
They make the decisions and the impact will be felt in markets bahaviours to it.
If good, jubilee, if bad, then more damage.
They want manipulate the price, then even more damage, if bad, can be catastrophic.

regards
  • #28,706
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:34pm Nov 1, 2011 9:34pm
Quoting fti
[really? fti, what are the chances in your opinion of the qe3 hapening today? i was thinking of that yesterday as a black swan event..
what are your thoughts on it?

i think fed would wait tad longer perhaps one more motnh for qe3 or next week possibly.

what do you think fti?
deflation is what they wanted to avoid in QE2, is it the same case on qe3 possibility? ive seen Positive us data increase, bt obviously less than what is needed.
if this black swan happens, what can...
oh ok... that will change.
well that i know of.
i mean its one thing speculating and making possible eventualities, but in the end trading whats there and not what u want to be there, i mean can we even get a buy or sell order when its released? alas lets just stay nimble and focused.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #28,707
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:40pm Nov 1, 2011 9:40pm
Quoting bumapatria
oh ok... that will change.
well that i know of.
i mean its one thing speculating and making possible eventualities, but in the end trading whats there and not what u want to be there, i mean can we even get a buy or sell order when its released? alas lets just stay nimble and focused.
yeah, buma.
To know and to do, is not the same.

After all the thinking and specualating, then when the thingy happens,you probably trigger dead.
Best just keep eyes on the channels. For now , is time mediate and rest for the energies, while keeping one eye on the ticker.

regards
  • #28,708
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:45pm Nov 1, 2011 9:45pm
What is technical analysis?
It is the study that tries to get the possibilities in the favor of the trader. As any other method, study, science, belief, it cannot be 100% correct. The fact that it requires money and risk management in order to be employed in a trade this means that it is in the side of the trader and not in the site of anyone else.
This study is trying to explain the current market sentiment(=difference between bears and bulls) in contrast with fundamental analysis, which tries to find a 'fair' value by using old data ( and most probably manipulated).
The reason for technical analysis not being a primary method of analysing financial, and not only, instruments was the lack of theoretical base. The last decades, behavioral finance appears to be the technical analysis' theory in order for the unbelievers to see that it is a complete science with both theoretical and practical approach methods of analysis.

Thank you.

P.s. I am looking forward for your comments
  • #28,709
  • Nov 1, 2011 10:28pm Nov 1, 2011 10:28pm
Quoting Bin
What is technical analysis?
It is the study that tries to get the possibilities in the favor of the trader. As any other method, study, science, belief, it cannot be 100% correct. The fact that it requires money and risk management in order to be employed in a trade this means that it is in the side of the trader and not in the site of anyone else.
This study is trying to explain the current market sentiment(=difference between bears and bulls) in contrast with fundamental analysis, which tries to find a 'fair' value by using old data...
Technical Analysis is analysis of markets using technical methodology (ie graphic stats). Its functions is to assist so as one is able to comprehend what is happening in markets from a price perspective.

regards
  • #28,710
  • Nov 1, 2011 11:17pm Nov 1, 2011 11:17pm
Quoting fti
Vic, it doesn't matter to markets.
Whats rotting is clear already, is only whether euro they can get their act together.
Whole world went into detaling the euro events looking for the rainbow.
Unfortunately we only met with deception and lies.
So even i not interested to hear anything about it until markets cheers with good news.
No cheers, then assume rotting.

The greek govt had better stop all these distractions and focus looking after the goodwill of her citizens.
Whether euro able to pull rabbit out of hat, or how they want to do it,...

Chief,

the book you recomend aka "Adam"...

do you have any other recomendation regarding some macro economics....something that can bring us closer to way you think minus experience....

V
  • #28,711
  • Nov 2, 2011 12:08am Nov 2, 2011 12:08am
Quoting fti
Why?
the thread not good enough?
You got to wait.
Maybe when i get to the other side, I"ll mail back my book.
Is hard find books to get my thoughts.
They're all over the place , and pieces everywhere.


regards
na ...thread has everything....getting way u think cant find any...thread is only one..

V
  • #28,712
  • Edited 6:40am Nov 2, 2011 12:50am | Edited 6:40am
Dear TAF friends.

Good Morning....!

Lots of news releases as well as Greek referundum today. Be nimble for the day ahead.

Regards
Bert
  • #28,713
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:46am Nov 2, 2011 1:46am
  • #28,714
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:59am Nov 2, 2011 1:59am
Quoting fti
fana trading stable now?

regards
Hi Fti. Yes, now i am steady and comfident (healthy comfidence if i can please:-)). It is most likely psychological issue i have to solve - and take care about. But when i focus 100%, i am good i think. Thank you:-)
  • #28,715
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:05am Nov 2, 2011 2:05am
Quoting fti
ok for you simpleman, some homework.
need quiet. printed chart, and deep thoughts.
the sequense of trades you used was 1,1,2,3.....5,8
if this your attack sequesnse seems that is not maximised
yes i know so would not had been possible that impliment scout.
no, there are ways around that.
But for starters , just note that you didn't maximised.
also that in this sequence that any stoppage of the run positions you will be in loss, even if you were at the early sequenses.
please rethink youre attack and resquue sequenses.

if you find difficulty...
Thanks fti for your wise advise, I will change the sequence as you have suggested. I wanted to maximise but it just went up 60 pips sharply and then I thought to square the position.
  • #28,716
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:20am Nov 2, 2011 2:20am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Simpleman,

I think there's no right or wrong to what you did. But it really depends on certain conditions.

1) How you feel the market.
2) Was your decision to scale in based on greed?
3) Did you use the correct MM and RM? I.e. Would you be able to stay calm and have enuf capital to rescue if the market suddenly turns against you sharply?

For me personally, I would not attack in the above sequence unless I am very clear about the trend (too aggressive for my appetite).

Hope it helps in some ways.

Regards
Jonathan
Hi Jonathan,
1) Market feel was but you can only improve it with practice.
2)No greed, if it was greed I would have hold the trade and then ran into rescue mode.
3) yes I have properly funded account to attack and rescue with micro lots to maximum sequence and 10% equity loss is the limit. No phsycological effect, as when I take the trades I know when to exit.

By nature I am aggressive trader by nature(Van Tharp says I am strategic trader and I don't believe him).

Thanks for the talk.
  • #28,717
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:56am Nov 2, 2011 3:56am
Happy trading day everyone. Looks like an interesting day ahead. LOTS of FA's today. Trade with caution and be nimble. E/$ and GBP/$ have been retracing and look to be setting up for...something.

So the Greek people will get a vote on their future? Finally, the people will be heard, but the results are going to be the same. Hard to compete in a modern economy when you don't do or make anything. Time will tell.

Stay focused and trade well my friends.
  • #28,718
  • Nov 2, 2011 5:01am Nov 2, 2011 5:01am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2011-11-02 at PM 05.55.12.png Size: 21 KB

Chief and fellow TAFs,

squared. The PA seems to indicate pretty strong buying.

My attack sequence is 111.. trying to err on the side of caution due to upcoming news release.

For advice, please...

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,719
  • Nov 2, 2011 5:06am Nov 2, 2011 5:06am


Quoting simpleman
Hi Jonathan,
1) Market feel was but you can only improve it with practice.
2)No greed, if it was greed I would have hold the trade and then ran into rescue mode.
3) yes I have properly funded account to attack and rescue with micro lots to maximum sequence and 10% equity loss is the limit. No phsycological effect, as when I take the trades I know when to exit.

By nature I am aggressive trader by nature(Van Tharp says I am strategic trader and I don't believe him).

Thanks for the talk.
  • #28,720
  • Nov 2, 2011 5:30am Nov 2, 2011 5:30am
Quoting GEfx
Happy trading day everyone. Looks like an interesting day ahead. LOTS of FA's today. Trade with caution and be nimble. E/$ and GBP/$ have been retracing and look to be setting up for...something.

So the Greek people will get a vote on their future? Finally, the people will be heard, but the results are going to be the same. Hard to compete in a modern economy when you don't do or make anything. Time will tell.

Stay focused and trade well my friends.
Hi GEfx,

Good trading to you too.

May the FLOW be with you

Regards
Jonathan
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