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Forecaster-5 min

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 8:21am Oct 30, 2011 2:50am | Edited 8:21am
The forecaster indi is based on a probability calculation using divergence, so it is not just showing what happened, but also suggesting what might happen.
I tried using it a while back but didn't understand how it worked and am revisiting it with a little more understanding behind me of probability.
Traders complain that it repaints.
That is missing the point with this indi.
It is based on probability and not every signal will be good.
So it may give a signal and then the signal disappears.
The effect of this is that there are very small losses.
But the gains are very, very significant for the good signals.
But that is the case with any trading, some signals will be bad.
So the repainting is of no concern.
The predictive nature of the forecaster gives a real winning edge.
It is not just what happened but what is likely to happen.
It is unique in that respect.

So with that said.

The trades couldn't be easier:

Enter when a fresh bar on the histogram appears
Long up,
Short down
Exit when the histogram goes blank or reverses whichever comes first.
No need to wait for the candle to close to enter.
Enter every signal.
Remain disciplined in the strategy.
Active markets are always preferable, spreads are smaller and there is more movement.

Let's make some money...

Am attaching a program for simulated trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forecaster.gif Size: 60 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FXForecaster.mq4   22 KB | 1,744 downloads
File Type: tpl forecaster.tpl   54 KB | 1,259 downloads
File Type: mq4 Training2.mq4   15 KB | 1,338 downloads
  • #2
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:05am Oct 30, 2011 3:05am
Looks interesting.

I'm eager to see if it could be implemented in my current system. I'll try it out when the market opens this week :-D

Had fun reading about Fisher transformation on Wikipedia '_ _

How long have you been trading with this indi?
  • #3
  • Oct 30, 2011 4:51am Oct 30, 2011 4:51am
Thanks jiva, looks interesting. I will test it next week
  • #4
  • Oct 30, 2011 8:25am Oct 30, 2011 8:25am
Thx Jiva
Will add it to my system.
Regards
  • #5
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:33am Oct 30, 2011 9:33am
Hello Jiva,
I'm a newbie.
Could you please help me to give me a detailed step by step explaination about how can I open the mq4 and tpl files and attached it to my brokers mt4
platform ?
Ireally appreciate your help to solve this problem.

Happy trading
veryspecial1
  • #6
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:18am Oct 30, 2011 10:18am
Could be one more probability indicator when scalping. I'll add it to my CCI(14) and test it if it could give some more information at M5 Level Trading.
Thank's
FXcube
  • #7
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:22am Oct 30, 2011 10:22am
Hi Jiva34
Did you have compare it coincidentally with MACD, RSI, CCI Divergences at M5 in days gone by?
  • #8
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:33am Oct 30, 2011 10:33am
jiva34, it sounds interesting, I'll probably test it live with a very small lot size (0.01) like I do with every promising system.

A couple of questions:

1). Do you use the default settings for this indi?

2). You showed M-5 chart. Does it mean that M-5 is the best timeframe for this indi? Have you ever tried other timeframes?

3). What are in your opinion the best currencies for this indi?

4). How long have you been trading with this indi?

5). I understand when we're supposed to exit (according to the histogram). However, do you have a Stop Loss? How big is it?

Thank you!
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #9
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:52am Oct 30, 2011 10:52am
Do bear in mind that this indi paints different live then dropping it on a history chart. Makes a difference of 2/3 bars every time
  • #10
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:59am Oct 30, 2011 10:59am
Quoting Laudkaems26
Looks interesting.

I'm eager to see if it could be implemented in my current system. I'll try it out when the market opens this week :-D

Had fun reading about Fisher transformation on Wikipedia '_ _

How long have you been trading with this indi?
I was wrong about it being based on fisher transform. There is an indi based on that and this seemed to behave in a similar manner. But when I looked into the code I could see it is based on macd divergence, not the transform. An indi based on divergence is also trying to anticipate what might happen.
This will probably need a filter or two to really make it work.
  • #11
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:00am Oct 30, 2011 11:00am
Quoting esquire
Do bear in mind that this indi paints different live then dropping it on a history chart.
That's the whole point! That's why we have to test it live, backtesting won't work!
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #12
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:01am Oct 30, 2011 11:01am
Quoting Forexcube
Hi Jiva34
Did you have compare it coincidentally with MACD, RSI, CCI Divergences at M5 in days gone by?
It'll probably need some other points of reference to make it work better.
  • #13
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:02am Oct 30, 2011 11:02am
Quoting Favorite
jiva34, it sounds interesting, I'll probably test it live with a very small lot size (0.01) like I do with every promising system.

A couple of questions:

1). Do you use the default settings for this indi?

2). You showed M-5 chart. Does it mean that M-5 is the best timeframe for this indi? Have you ever tried other timeframes?

3). What are in your opinion the best currencies for this indi?

4). How long have you been trading with this indi?

5). I understand when we're supposed to exit (according to the histogram). However, do you have...
A couple of questions:

1). Do you use the default settings for this indi? yes

2). You showed M-5 chart. Does it mean that M-5 is the best timeframe for this indi? Have you ever tried other timeframes? good for scalping, 1m, 5m
3). What are in your opinion the best currencies for this indi? Ones with small spreads...
4). How long have you been trading with this indi? not long...

5). I understand when we're supposed to exit (according to the histogram). However, do you have a Stop Loss? How big is it?
emergency stop, 20 pips... in case the power goes out......
  • #14
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:06am Oct 30, 2011 11:06am
Quoting esquire
Do bear in mind that this indi paints different live then dropping it on a history chart. Makes a difference of 2/3 bars every time
Even indis that don't repaint give bad signals, advantage here is the probability function built in that the trade might go in a certain direction.
But I think it needs something else to go with it. Obviously we want to catch a significant move, a mini trend...
  • #15
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:06am Oct 30, 2011 11:06am
Quoting jiva34
A couple of questions:

1). Do you use the default settings for this indi? yes

2). You showed M-5 chart. Does it mean that M-5 is the best timeframe for this indi? Have you ever tried other timeframes? good for scalping, 1m, 5m

3). What are in your opinion the best currencies for this indi? Ones with small spreads...

4). How long have you been trading with this indi? not long...

5). I understand when we're supposed to exit (according to the histogram). However, do you have a Stop Loss? How big is it?
[i]emergency...
Thank you, jiva34!

And about filtering: it is your system and your thread and I don't want to take over However when I test this system, I will be taking only the signals in the H-1 trend's direction.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #16
  • Oct 30, 2011 12:06pm Oct 30, 2011 12:06pm
Quoting veryspecial1
Could you please help me to give me a detailed step by step explaination about how can I open the mq4 and tpl files and attached it to my brokers mt4
platform ?
veryspecial1, first copy ".mq4" file ,then open my computer>local disk(c)>program files, then search for your mt4 folder name ( for example if you use FxPro, the folder name is FxPro - MetaTrader ) then open expert>indicator; and paste the ".mq4" file to this folder.

next copy ".tpl"file, then open my computer>local disk(c)>program files, then search for your mt4 folder name ( for example if you use FxPro, the folder name is FxPro - MetaTrader ) then open templates folder and paste the ".tpl" file to this folder.

Best regards,

Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #17
  • Oct 30, 2011 4:00pm Oct 30, 2011 4:00pm
Save yourself a lot of anguish and do not look at FxForcaster with historical data. The first tip off is that the data is generated form bar 0 to last bar. The data from the previous bar is used to create the next bar using the Fisher algo. I wasted a lot of time on this about a year ago.

So the forcasting is great if you do not mind the concept of using tomorrows chart (cheating) to figure out what to do today. If you are one who believes that re-painting doesn't matter, you have a winner here.

KingHigh
  • #18
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:00pm Oct 30, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting KingHigh
Save yourself a lot of anguish and do not look at FxForcaster with historical data. The first tip off is that the data is generated form bar 0 to last bar. The data from the previous bar is used to create the next bar using the Fisher algo. I wasted a lot of time on this about a year ago.

So the forcasting is great if you do not mind the concept of using tomorrows chart (cheating) to figure out what to do today. If you are one who believes that re-painting doesn't matter, you have a winner here.

KingHigh
I have to agree. After watching this indi live for 6 hours I'm not interested any more.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #19
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:21pm Oct 30, 2011 11:21pm
Quoting Favorite
I have to agree. After watching this indi live for 6 hours I'm not interested any more.
An oscilator indicator is not reliable in single use, must combine it with others indicator

Best regards,

Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #20
  • Last Post: Oct 31, 2011 6:53am Oct 31, 2011 6:53am
am working on this http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post5086478
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