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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,461
  • Oct 30, 2011 1:45pm Oct 30, 2011 1:45pm
Quoting Zoran
¿ǝʌıʇɔɐ ǝq oʇ ǝʌɐɥ ʇɹɐɥɔ ǝɥʇ sǝop ¿ǝǝs oʇ pǝsoddns ɯ,I ʇɐɥʍ uı ɔıɟıɔǝds ǝɹoɯ ǝlʇʇıl ɐ ǝq noʎ uɐƆ ˙⅄Ԁſ/pS∩ ǝɥʇ uo uʍop ǝpıs dn doʇdɐl ʎɯ pǝuɹnʇ I ˙ƃuıɥʇǝɯos ƃuıssıɯ...

Hi Zoran,

that is a really good one.
I prefer not to turn my computer upside down, but to make a headstand

Not sure if your questiuon is meant seriusly.
I guess you have seen the suprising interpretation, that your brain will deliver.
But let me give you some details, what I'm talking about.

Usually we are making our decision about trends, ranges, chart pattern, sausage shapes, strenght and weakness and so on based on what we believe to see very clear on the chart. So let's suppose you believe in an uptrend. When you plot your chart upside down, we would expect to be very sure to indetify a downtrend then.

But it is suprising, the way PA was aligning with some virtual or real lines on the chart, the shape of some patterns, even a convex looking price pattern will not be recognized that clear as a convcarve one then.

The effect of the experiment is to show, that we tend to see, what we want to see. And also that very strong indications are not supported, when we change our point of view ...

That's all

CU,
Niels
  • #28,462
  • Oct 30, 2011 1:56pm Oct 30, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting tubguy
Yea, In some cases drivers can be an issue, but it has come a long way.
Thats why I mentioned the learning curve. It's still not as simple as winblows but is getting a lot closer.

As for Mt4, it can be run very simply. I have Mt4 on mine running great under wine. It would be a bit tricky to set up for a newcomer to linux though.

I just like not having to worry about bugs crashing my computer. It was well worth learning something new in my case.

It would be best for anyone trying linux out to stick with Ubuntu or Linux Mint I think. They...
Thanks tubguy.
i am familiar with the as300 unix Os as that is the OS used for backoffice ops.
I think if not wrong is LINUX parent. But when using the UNIX based Os, needs group of dedicated coders write the necessary modifications.Which is beyond non institution scope due to cost.

Although using LINUX thru wine can run MT4, there is this uncharted territory of latency. In laymen terms means need have intepreter do the OS language decoding. I not have data on how much latency is involved.

So most traders being not coding literate may still stay with the Winblows OS. This may be diffuclt for laymen decide because some uses Java on top of winblows, so comes back to the same.

So far as to my experimentation of Ubuntu 10+, still much tweaking is required.

But I thank you for your considerate suggestions.

regards.
  • #28,463
  • Oct 30, 2011 2:00pm Oct 30, 2011 2:00pm
On the markets front, although i can see where GEFX coming from. I feel best not become to bias of possibilities, as there are much wildcards at play. Is also true that few had the privilage see the papers in detail. and the chaps had gone china negioatiate a deal. Thing is i heard them going , never heard about any landing or progress of issues, so is still open for guessing.

So we still need dancing shoes.

regards
  • #28,464
  • Oct 30, 2011 2:08pm Oct 30, 2011 2:08pm
before hitting the covers in 10 mins, here is something for everyone from a book i am currently reading.

Fear is self-made, and we should not react to it, instead respond to it. Fear is one of our greatest demons, yet the best way is to dance with our demons. We lead the way, and let fear become our teacher. Fear will give you the needed information to transform your moments of uncertainty into growth opportunities and healing. Realize that fear arises from within you, and not in the world, you can gain great understanding about yourself and life

-

page 29, art of uncertainty by Dennis merrit jones.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #28,465
  • Edited 2:22pm Oct 30, 2011 2:08pm | Edited 2:22pm
everyones talking 50% haircut.
means gets back 0.50 for every euro borrowed.

Is very bitter, half investments dips sauce.
Will they consider lending again?

well is better than 0.2 e to 1e
BUT.........bad tasting.... well a default by any other name is still default.
Lets see how markets like stomach this.

1.41/2 handle is very tempting , no?
begining feel like gambler?
but how else to feel?

and germany found 55 billion euro accounts err?
are we talking about banking or shopping, loose change.
55 b? OMG. maybe some one look into accounting stds, please?
wonder what else lurking in books?
wondering, could greece have some couple 100b err also?
may just solve the problem? no?

regards
  • #28,466
  • Oct 30, 2011 2:23pm Oct 30, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting fti
[...]

So we still need dancing shoes.

regards
And that's why I like trading that much:
There is room for so much guessing, analysing and theories.
But finally the music is played live on the dancing floor..

Hey, what's about some new shoes?

http://www.danceshoesonline.com/cata...tandard_1.html

Dance well!

.
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  • #28,467
  • Oct 30, 2011 2:36pm Oct 30, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting bumapatria
before hitting the covers in 10 mins, here is something for everyone from a book i am currently reading.

[i]Fear is self-made, and we should not react to it, instead respond to it. Fear is one of our greatest demons, yet the best way is to dance with our demons. We lead the way, and let fear become our teacher. Fear will give you the needed information to transform your moments of uncertainty into growth opportunities and healing. Realize that fear arises from within you, and not in the world, you can gain great understanding about yourself and...

thanks buma

great quote, i will add this to my list of things that i read when i loose my direction.

regards

phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #28,468
  • Edited 3:03pm Oct 30, 2011 2:41pm | Edited 3:03pm
Quoting MaMood
And that's why I like trading that much:
There is room for so much guessing, analysing and theories.
But finally the music is played live on the dancing floor..

Hey, what's about some new shoes?

http://www.danceshoesonline.com/cata...tandard_1.html

Dance well!

.
Nice shoes, but i know not how dance this music.
waltz or Jerky?
in reality is default. then the word creditor voluntary is used.
Which means is not debtor not want pay.
is creditors not want their money.

i like them, would some one lend me 100 mio euro please,
is so nice you only want me repay 50 mio.
thank you, please.
pretty please?
come on please?
Mamood, any chance?
I love this banking system,
maybe i like 500mio? if suits?
This must be new age banking, i am so .................

wait a minute, i thought there was guarantor to it.
Does this mean guarantor default?
Anyway what do i know about banking?

OMG, i someone just informed me.
They negiotiating from 0 to 50%
ya ya 50% is good considering nothing is on table.
OMG, such good credit ratings.

Ai ya robbery is no good la, just say is wedding gift.
  • #28,469
  • Oct 30, 2011 2:43pm Oct 30, 2011 2:43pm
another snippet from the book ....

It is so funny, cause it is the same with fti's teachings.
He said: "Follow the market, follow the music..."
And in the beginning noone really wanted or could believe that it is that simple.
We started to create very complicated theories, complex scaling in and out skews and much more.
Not to forget the "spirals inside spirals" thingy.

Hmmh, that snippet below reminds me very strong what I have done 3 years ago.
I made trading as complicated as possible ...
Strange ..!

.
Attached Image
  • #28,470
  • Oct 30, 2011 2:51pm Oct 30, 2011 2:51pm
Quoting fti
Nice shoes, but i know not how dance this music.
waltz or Jerky?
in reality is default. then the word creditor voluntary is used.
Which means is not debtor not want pay.
is creditors not want their money.

i like them, would some one lend me 100 mio euro please,
is so nice you only want me repay 50 mio.
thank you, please.
pretty please?
come on please?
Mamood, any chance?
Hmmh - that sounds like a really good offer, isn't it?
But for the moment I have a little liquidity problem, you know my banks have accidently bought a lot of bonds from the wrong country...

But let'S talk about it at the end of the year again.
Seems I can lend some cheap money out there.
Cheap enough to make still good profits
  • #28,471
  • Oct 30, 2011 2:58pm Oct 30, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting MaMood
another snippet from the book ....

It is so funny, cause it is the same with fti's teachings.
He said: "Follow the market, follow the music..."
And in the beginning noone really wanted or could believe that it is that simple.
We started to create very complicated theories, complex scaling in and out skews and much more.
Not to forget the "spirals inside spirals" thingy.

Hmmh, that snippet below reminds me very strong what I have done 3 years ago.
I made trading as complicated as possible ...
Strange ..!

.

Which book is this



V
  • #28,472
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:00pm Oct 30, 2011 3:00pm
Quoting MaMood
another snippet from the book ....

It is so funny, cause it is the same with fti's teachings.
He said: "Follow the market, follow the music..."
And in the beginning noone really wanted or could believe that it is that simple.
We started to create very complicated theories, complex scaling in and out skews and much more.
Not to forget the "spirals inside spirals" thingy.

Hmmh, that snippet below reminds me very strong what I have done 3 years ago.
I made trading as complicated as possible ...
Strange ..!

.
You are talking about - New Concepts in Technical Trading System?
  • #28,473
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:01pm Oct 30, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting MaMood
another snippet from the book ....

It is so funny, cause it is the same with fti's teachings.
He said: "Follow the market, follow the music..."
And in the beginning noone really wanted or could believe that it is that simple.
We started to create very complicated theories, complex scaling in and out skews and much more.
Not to forget the "spirals inside spirals" thingy.

Hmmh, that snippet below reminds me very strong what I have done 3 years ago.
I made trading as complicated as possible ...
Strange ..!

.
hello Niels,

you make it sound simple and that's the most difficult for me ... KISS like fti said, strong and simple, my mind wants to be active.... i think this is why we have to try stay relaxed while trading... go with the tides

Inserted Video


kind greets jacco
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,474
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:07pm Oct 30, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Which book is this



V

It was mentioned by fti earlier today:

"The ADAM Theory of Markets" by Welles Wilder
  • #28,475
  • Edited 3:38pm Oct 30, 2011 3:15pm | Edited 3:38pm
Quoting MaMood
Hmmh - that sounds like a really good offer, isn't it?
But for the moment I have a little liquidity problem, you know my banks have accidently bought a lot of bonds from the wrong country...

But let'S talk about it at the end of the year again.
Seems I can lend some cheap money out there.
Cheap enough to make still good profits
oh ok, noted.
maybe you can do me favour?
introduce me to your european friends.
They really friends , indeed.
Pretty please, i never had such good friends before.

OOps, come think about it, i had ever been such a friend to others before.
i best learn, ai ya. was heatbreaking amongst other things.
they even scolded me, caused them take unnecessary risk, by encouraging them on my credit.
Without which they would not had taken such unaffordable risk.
was convinced was my bad. So they asked more so that they can be reimbursted on my bad friendship.
Ai ya , just be kind, make them good.

Ai ya , is only money, friendship is more important.
Wonder how they are now. Haven't sat had coffee with them for many yeasrs already.


regards
  • #28,476
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:25pm Oct 30, 2011 3:25pm
Quoting fti
Wow, stunning, moto capabilities.
Super, yeah.
Wonder with so much intelligence, I had been losing heaps data and files since 1980. Everything i archieve gets currupted in say before 3to 5 years. So i not like archieve much things anymore.

Oh, incidentally, let me tell you that my top of the line computer with 6GB ram, you know top of the line stuff. It uses half its resources, trying fight off hacks and stopping bad operating instructions to destroy it. When some real bad ones gets over the net line, due to my neglecting update my virus and...
put up a firewall box with application content scanning. lately this seems to be the only way.

to tubguy, I have seen more zero day exploits on linux than on windows in the last year, so I don't see why bother with the printing and driver issues.

if you can't maintain your computer, somebody should maintain your perimeter.

regards,
  • #28,477
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:41pm Oct 30, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting piccolo
put up a firewall box with application content scanning. lately this seems to be the only way.

to tubguy, I have seen more zero day exploits on linux than on windows in the last year, so I don't see why bother with the printing and driver issues.

if you can't maintain your computer, somebody should maintain your perimeter.

regards,
You must be way more advanced than myself, because I have no idea what a zero day exploit is.

I suppose I do a reasonable job maintaining as I have had no problems
with my back up laptop that runs Win 7.

I am by no means hard core against Windows, I just moved to linux a while back because it seemed something was always causing mine to crash.

I do agree that the incompatibility issues in linux can be a pain in the butt
at times too.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #28,478
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:51pm Oct 30, 2011 3:51pm
Quoting piccolo
put up a firewall box with application content scanning. lately this seems to be the only way.

to tubguy, I have seen more zero day exploits on linux than on windows in the last year, so I don't see why bother with the printing and driver issues.

if you can't maintain your computer, somebody should maintain your perimeter.

regards,

what i do is i maintain my data on a computer that has no net access. But somehow funny stuff still gets over, mostly make me do like 30+ days of scanning for files when something makes the partition non formatted.

Good firewall, huh, ok will check that out.

infact not much stuff of importance left anymore, mostly dead files already. But i like rip my song collections into flac and use for easy search. But when funny things happens most of them become "lost sync, here and there." So only thing to do is rerip them. Only problem is now my collection is in sg, and i am here.

But no matter, i was thinking downgrade my ears and depend on youtube instead for some. Was thinking, wtf (what the fish)a dying man wants of a music collection anyways.


regards
  • #28,479
  • Oct 30, 2011 4:03pm Oct 30, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting tubguy
You must be way more advanced than myself, because I have no idea what a zero day exploit is.

I suppose I do a reasonable job maintaining as I have had no problems
with my back up laptop that runs Win 7.

I am by no means hard core against Windows, I just moved to linux a while back because it seemed something was always causing mine to crash.

I do agree that the incompatibility issues in linux can be a pain in the butt
at times too.

Good Trading
Mike
Windows crashes and bluescreens are due to device drivers, it is possible that some drivers are better written for linux and thus makes the system more stable.

Anyway, it's just a tool. I like linux.

A zero day exploit is just a fancy word for a security hole, which is exploited before anybody knows about it (and can write an antivirus/malware rule for it)
  • #28,480
  • Oct 30, 2011 4:05pm Oct 30, 2011 4:05pm
Quoting fti
wtf (what the fish)

regards
I always thought wtf means 'why the face?'
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