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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,341
  • Edited 9:57am Oct 28, 2011 9:29am | Edited 9:57am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Snowly,
Your advice are very candid. I like your style
By stimulants I hope you are not referring to coffee, coz I drink 2 cups a day. Lol.
Yes. I need to avoid targets. I kept telling myself 1% a day. And I think it distracts me from my trading.
I just found out the evil about p/l yest. Oanda shows you your realized p/l all the time. And it's highlighted in red! Nothing works better to distract your trading then those numbers from the past... So I created a new account to start on a clean slate. I will only look at margin used this time round.
I...
Never add to a losing position! Took me a while to get the difference.
Never add; just rescue, but don't add. If you planned from the beginning to scale in, it's fine. But if you're just adding(you know when you do), that's bad.

eventually leave the scout in place after rescue, but that kinda should be it(bar obvious outside events). Or, any rule you set, eventually leave abit more, abit less(whatever you know it's right - you know better).

But don't beg by trying to bite everything. That's revenge(on yourself, the market still doesn't know you're competing with it); you were on the other side, big deal, that's that.

and since you're talking about your "current situation": don't be a soldier(I presume you had a loss). I'm a soldier; I'm the perfect soldier. Hit me 100 times, I still get back. It's bad - you'll just keep hitting the same ceiling. Contrary to life, ambition alone won't cut it here. Don't overanalyze, because, to quote fti, you'll lose your balls; but if you just got slapped, get abit back to see clearly what happened. Don't just stand up and jump to have another go at it. Don't panic, don't get scared, but don't be a mindless bull either.

p.s. - coffee is a life necessity not a stimulant
  • #28,342
  • Oct 28, 2011 9:57am Oct 28, 2011 9:57am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Mark,

you are spot on.
From my experience the follwing seems to be true:

With really awesome chart-reading skills and an excellent feeling for the market, but with bad Risk- and Money-Management, you will most propbably not survive in the middle and long term.
But with excellent MM and RM, and weak chart reading skills you probably will keep your book safe. And then there are these times, when you are just at the right side at the right time, when you can not avoid to make money ...

CU,
Niels
Congrats Niels!

You are 2nd and 3rd to date in the Varengold competition (on going still). Awesome how you demonstrate the power of ants work and do us proud.

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #28,343
  • Oct 28, 2011 10:19am Oct 28, 2011 10:19am
Quoting Baifu
Congrats Niels!

You are 2nd and 3rd to date in the Varengold competition (on going still). Awesome how you demonstrate the power of ants work and do us proud.

Rgs,
Baifu
Wow you ROCK Niels
  • #28,344
  • Oct 28, 2011 10:35am Oct 28, 2011 10:35am
Quoting snowly
Never add to a losing position! Took me a while to get the difference.
Never add; just rescue, but don't add. If you planned from the beginning to scale in, it's fine. But if you're just adding(you know when you do), that's bad.

eventually leave the scout in place after rescue, but that kinda should be it(bar obvious outside events). Or, any rule you set, eventually leave abit more, abit less(whatever you know it's right - you know better).

But don't beg by trying to bite everything. That's revenge(on yourself,...
at first i thought u were talking like half the forex world does, then i saw ur next feww sentences, and yes u got it
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #28,345
  • Oct 28, 2011 10:47am Oct 28, 2011 10:47am
Quoting bumapatria
at first i thought u were talking like half the forex world does, then i saw ur next feww sentences, and yes u got it
Okay, I think my fundamental understanding may be wrong. I am going to explain how I do it.

1. I enter one scout.

2. Market move against me. I suspect that I am counter trend. I send in 1st level rescue at next S/R to defend my position.

3. Market move against me strongly. This time, I know for sure that I am against trend. Are you saying that at this point, I SHOULD NOT add to my position at the next S/R? If so, how do I rescue? troops deep in waters cannot rescue themselves can they?

Please help. I need to get this right...

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,346
  • Oct 28, 2011 11:04am Oct 28, 2011 11:04am
Quoting N_Trader
Okay, I think my fundamental understanding may be wrong. I am going to explain how I do it.

1. I enter one scout.

2. Market move against me. I suspect that I am counter trend. I send in 1st level rescue at next S/R to defend my position.

3. Market move against me strongly. This time, I know for sure that I am against trend. Are you saying that at this point, I SHOULD NOT add to my position at the next S/R? If so, how do I rescue? troops deep in waters cannot rescue themselves can they?

Please help. I need to get this right...

Regards
Jonathan...
yes they can. i had an opp to do so, but let it run. is that how you do it normally? im not much of a lets do it all completely 100% fti lol, i do what i think is right. my eur usd short underwater in 100 pips+ and yet its not much hit to equity only 1% and max was 3%. had double rescues, aand i honestly couldve rescued all of them or averaged it in. losing $50 initially, got down to $5, and $2 profit. i was still holding. well how to rescue? thats something i learnt on my own. basically what i do is forget about my current position, and trade again with a tad larger lot size, and trade like its ur first.

btw, i never send a scout without legitimate FA and TA before it. so basically i am ready to drown or win good. R/R to me is always 1:1. right now im kinda fluid, not rigid. hedged for a bit, minimizing loss making equity larger to have mroe space for running trade. i never just buy or sell for scout to me that sounds dangerous. trade like the scout is going to come back telling you something good not getting hurt. in battle, you must command your soldiers, assault or scout with wisdom and slickness. its the general's fault if the soldiers lose in battle.

every battle is won before it is ever fought.

you are not lost yet, there is always a way out my friend. think it through, whether to rescue step by step scalping small pips, or looking at another pair, its possible. taking a retracement of your direction with a larger lot, hedging, its a long list. oh yeah rescuing is even more serious. if youre initial trade is wrong, think if your rescue is wrong. your medic team down, now u either have to rescue them both, or leave them for dead on the battlefield. let me give u an example, in jiujitsu which i do frequently, do you think if you get caught in a submission you just give up?! hell no, there is always an escape. you get mounted and life seems to end?! hell no, there is an escape.

Never give up. Look up, you get caught in a submission, you are not gone yet.

you are the pivot between profit or loss, success and failure.

i cant go any more detailed than that, im sure u will get lots of other input from other traders.

thats where i stand. i again say its not pure fti, its modified (i think) and i trade this way. that is why u MUST know yourself first. Who are you? what are you? what do you do when thsi happens? what is best for you? and BE ONE AND HARMONIOUS with PRICE!! there must be a harmonious connection of synergy that you just act on reflex! it took me time as well before redlion's help, i was like .... shit on the dirt or something. know yourself, know the enemy. there is nothing else to be worried about. everything else is in between.


any questions, ill gladly answer
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #28,347
  • Edited 11:48am Oct 28, 2011 11:05am | Edited 11:48am
I'm solely talking for myself

against me -> start rescue -> get to break even -> OUT! Not keep all of it, because - "hey... it started to move in my direction, so clearly I was right from the beginning and I just bought some more on the cheapo".

No - chances are it's just a retrace and you're still wrong, so at least get the rescuers out and leave only the scout at the new level. That way, you'll have a shot at another rescue/attack. Basically, when it starts going in your direction don't start congratulating yourself on how "right" you were and how bright you are; it can always switch. Get out and get ready for next battle.

should it truly start going your way afterwards, then yes, start adding. Don't be sad that you sold earlier and you add now at a higher price. Now you're attacking, you're allowed to add.

Before, you were defending, were loaded, and had no defence behind you; you were just a bulky target. Be happy you managed to pull yourself out, don't be greedy.

p.s.

ah, and one more thing, since that's why I'm taking a break atm. - to trade, you have to be in sync/in step/name it however you want with the market. It's seldom to be 100% in sync and the whole activity to be effortless(at least for me - obviously, the better you are, the more you're in sync).

You'll be x% in sync, and rest is energy constantly consumed. Consumed to keep your scorpion put. That eats your energy when things aren't flawless non stop, since he keeps trying to bite your ass; you know the bugger, he keeps asking "what if price does whatever and the sky falls? look, let's get out NOW with all this handsome profit... etc.".
Keep an eye on the energy level and know your limits. No clue how fti could've stayed 3 days in a row, but for instance, I know for sure I'm not able. When you feel worn down, start trying to get out. Make an effort to finish the "battle" assuming you're in one, but at the 1st opportunity, get out. Even if it's the mother of all opportunities; leave the scout in, but that should be it. Otherwise, he'll make a sieve out of your behind.
  • #28,348
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:40pm Oct 28, 2011 2:40pm
Hi friends!

Just for info.
Wish you a great weekend!

.
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  • #28,349
  • Oct 28, 2011 3:17pm Oct 28, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting fti
Hi phAnti,

And this thread, a means leave behind skills to help those along who may be just be begining the possibilities of the beautiful life that I had the privilage walked.
Trading brought me very very close to God. About God, about Love.

I don't know What is trading to you ?

regards

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84nd7o1zjjA
  • #28,350
  • Edited 4:40pm Oct 28, 2011 4:13pm | Edited 4:40pm
damnd..i cannot resist to post some music, ignore if you don't like it

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have a nice weekend!! pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,351
  • Oct 28, 2011 5:28pm Oct 28, 2011 5:28pm
first vid ...Freddie tribute...quality oncert I was there
happy days
  • #28,352
  • Oct 28, 2011 8:06pm Oct 28, 2011 8:06pm
Quoting bumapatria
every battle is won before it is ever fought.
you are not lost yet, there is always a way out my friend.
Never give up. Look up, you get caught in a submission, you are not gone yet.

you are the pivot between profit or loss, success and failure.

u MUST know yourself first. Who are you? what are you? what do you do when thsi happens? what is best for you? and BE ONE AND HARMONIOUS with PRICE!! there must be a harmonious connection of synergy that you just act on reflex! know yourself, know the enemy. there...
Hi Buma,

I re-read your post 3 times. It's amazing what you have taught me.
Now I know why mla and Niels said that with proper MM and RM, you CANNOT lose money. You may not make much, but you cannot lose much either.

Now I am begining to see why it took me so much to earn 5% and only one bad mistake to lose them all. So say if I'm short EU when the market goes strongly against me, one possible way of managing my risk could be to long GU provided that USD is truly weakening?

Indeed, even with my eyes open, I cannot see everything (jPax).

Thanks mate.

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,353
  • Oct 29, 2011 2:38am Oct 29, 2011 2:38am
I'm not sure why you and mla have got the idea into your head that proper MM means you can't make much either? I generally make around 1% a day, and I know there are plenty of others who do the same or better.
  • #28,354
  • Edited 3:37am Oct 29, 2011 3:23am | Edited 3:37am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Buma,

I re-read your post 3 times. It's amazing what you have taught me.
Now I know why mla and Niels said that with proper MM and RM, you CANNOT lose money. You may not make much, but you cannot lose much either.

Now I am begining to see why it took me so much to earn 5% and only one bad mistake to lose them all. So say if I'm short EU when the market goes strongly against me, one possible way of managing my risk could be to long GU provided that USD is truly weakening?

Indeed, even with my eyes open, I cannot see everything...
yes that could be one of the ways, but i truly do not know.
again, n, i do not know. i do not trade Gbp/usd even if i did i tell you to go long or short it? no. i wouldnt tell you to hedge i wouldnt tell you to compound a rescue.Why? I do not know you. I believe that for a trader to make the best decision is for He/She to decide for him/herself. Your eyes are open, your mind is open for ideas, and input, yet i dont see it open for the whole 'game' itself. The dance. Do you feel the dance of price? even though price shoots up what are your thoughts on how she moves? does she move too fast she needs to slow down? is it too 'off-course she will dancce her way back? FA and TA is below this. You've got to have that harmony. I can't say with even a whole book what is this harmony between the dancer and us. I had a recent example of a 4% loss into a 0.5% loss.running trades on eur/usd. Hedging is not always the answer it locks in the loss. i am not going to tell you what happened that would cloud your thinking and your natural harmony with price. Think of long term short term bias... dont think tops or bottoms yet, but think where possible could she dance in the future?

You need to find her, you need to dance with her. find one or two girls max, dance with them well. tell me what are your previous results with gbp usd? no pips, no $, tell me how do you feel wit hher?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #28,355
  • Oct 29, 2011 5:38am Oct 29, 2011 5:38am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Buma,

I re-read your post 3 times. It's amazing what you have taught me.
Now I know why mla and Niels said that with proper MM and RM, you CANNOT lose money. You may not make much, but you cannot lose much either.

Now I am begining to see why it took me so much to earn 5% and only one bad mistake to lose them all. So say if I'm short EU when the market goes strongly against me, one possible way of managing my risk could be to long GU provided that USD is truly weakening?

Indeed, even with my eyes open, I cannot...
please read carefully what fti has said about managing the risk, hedging and crosses

otherwise with one foot bleeding (E/U), you will put a bullet in the other (G/U)..
  • #28,356
  • Oct 29, 2011 6:19am Oct 29, 2011 6:19am
I had the luxury to babysit my trade yesterday and I tried this strategy on volatile GBPAUD.

I went short with an scout but then price started going against me and when it was away almost 60 pips and was looking to come back down I sent a rescue, but after small retrace price went back up again then near the round number I sent another rescue troop and this time price started coming down while it was coming down I attacked with another troop and finally reached break-even point where I closed the trade.

Instead of doing it on demo I straight away did it on live account without any stops.The rescue/attack combination was not exactly as described by fti but because it was my first trade so I let it go.

I will try to do it with better combination next time.

I like this strategy, lot of potential to become a full time trader.
  • #28,357
  • Oct 29, 2011 6:40am Oct 29, 2011 6:40am
This one is looking good to give us some pips. Broken the support on daily and has re-tested.
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  • #28,358
  • Oct 29, 2011 6:57am Oct 29, 2011 6:57am
Happy weekend everyone. I am doing some research and testing this very cold Saturday morning and thought I'd stop by TAF. Sad to see the fight that just broke out, but it looks to be over and I hope you guys can put it behind you.

I'm kind of tired this morning so not much else to say. MaMood, good work in the contest and best wishes to you. Would love to join in one of your chat sessions one day.

One final comment to the St. Louis Cardinals -- well done!
  • #28,359
  • Oct 29, 2011 7:23am Oct 29, 2011 7:23am
Quoting snowly
I'm solely talking for myself

against me -> start rescue -> get to break even -> OUT! Not keep all of it, because - "hey... it started to move in my direction, so clearly I was right from the beginning and I just bought some more on the cheapo".

No - chances are it's just a retrace and you're still wrong, so at least get the rescuers out and leave only the scout at the new level. That way, you'll have a shot at another rescue/attack. Basically, when it starts going in your direction don't start congratulating yourself on how "right" you...
Apologies that I took some time to get back to you. I was busy with my house Reno getting ready for my wedding in Nov this year.

I sorta get what you mean. I think I needed much more practice to really sync with the market. Sometimes I can feel it and sometimes not.

I get what you mean now. It's back to basics for me. Will work on what I've learnt from you guys.

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,360
  • Oct 29, 2011 7:27am Oct 29, 2011 7:27am
Quoting simpleman
This one is looking good to give us some pips. Broken the support on daily and has re-tested.
Nice work!
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