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The Confession & The Secret

  • #161
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:30am Oct 27, 2011 11:30am
Quoting Pipalicious
Haha, nah, thats yours for the taking. Heres another one for ya, all this leads me to one straight forward conclusion...:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post4211852

Im quietly reading your comments and taking in what your saying, because a lot goes in line (no pun intended) with how i personally think at my current learning stages. A random line isnt 'enough', it requires certain elements....for example:

Yep. LOL, trend traders have a saying: The trend is your friend.

I have a slightly different take on that theme now: The trend may be your friend, but a "quality line" will never desert you when the trend walks out the front door.

Or...

When the trend says goodbye, a "quality line" says, Hello!

LOL, kind of funny.
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
  • #162
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:35am Oct 27, 2011 11:35am
The original V-Trigger from 4065 just hit the +155 pip max potential mark, while my late entry from 4094 would be +126 max potential at this stage.

Still waiting on a V-Trigger to initiate the simulated recovery of -70 pips, but with the Daily volatility being this ballistic, that trigger might not come this session. We'll wait and see.

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/t/cd15e.jpg
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
  • #163
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:54am Oct 27, 2011 11:54am
My double Stoch plus custom volatility indicator package is pegged to the upside of its own range, which means it cannot produce a V-Trigger from that configuration, other than the one it produced earlier this morning at 4065.

So, I'm going to take step away from the computer for a couple hours, make some more Jasmine Downy Pearl tea and go take care of some other business while the V-Trigger unwinds itself and resets.

I need to make an audible/text message alert for the V-Tigger, come to think of it. I'd also like to trade this on the Android platform using my iPhone, but I think the Swap Sequence would be rather sloppy using an iPhone that way. Trying to free myself from the office.

Anyway, I'll try back in the couple hours....

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/newuploads/8c94e.jpg
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
  • #164
  • Oct 27, 2011 1:58pm Oct 27, 2011 1:58pm
Are you using RPO or Close today or both (whichever happens first)? Does one seem better than the other at this point?
  • #165
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:11pm Oct 27, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting Ranger911
Are you using RPO or Close today or both (whichever happens first)? Does one seem better than the other at this point?
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/newuploads/cd15e.jpg


No swaps were necessary = perfect V-Trigger location. The number of swaps necessary to make a profit, determines the quality of the V-Trigger line. I would have used RPO today, had there been a need for it.
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
  • #166
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:20pm Oct 27, 2011 3:20pm
Where are you plotting your afternoon line? 1.4176ish?
  • #167
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:34pm Oct 27, 2011 3:34pm
I count at least 20 closes above and below your volatility line from Monday into Tuesday. I think you said you could handle only about 10 swaps per line. It seems like Monday you would have been stopped out and again on Tuesday before it moved to create a new line?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #168
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:40pm Oct 27, 2011 3:40pm
Still no second M15 V-Trigger yet. So, I most likely won't get a chance to even run the recovery strategy. Sometimes, its just hard to fail with good lines. Rock solid days like this do much to bolster my Non-Directional beliefs at this point in my career.

My only regret is that I was not able to realize this years ago.

Since being a line trader, I've always wondered how the Turtles would have done, using the same approach. I bet they would have become billionaires, not just millionaires.

Maybe, Soros, is a line trader in disguise. Go load and look at a Monthly chart and then start laughing to yourself as you realize how many pips you can make over the course of one year doing this very simple strategy. Of course, you need some starting capital to make the larger time-frames work out and when one fails, you then need to wait another 12 months for a recovery. But, many large scale investors have big event horizons for their returns.

All those years in the Directional desert. Chasing after Direction, when Direction was (in truth) chasing after my capital. What a revelation.

This really goes back to my belief that everything in the Universe has a point of origin - a point of instantiation. How can a trend ever develop without first launching itself from some line on a chart. It is impossible, else, there would be no trend at all.

Find a good line and defend it. Stand your ground.
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
  • #169
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:46pm Oct 27, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting Ranger911
Where are you plotting your afternoon line? 1.4176ish?
Quoting Line In Sand
For clarification purposes on today's activity:

1) The journal and this thread shows today's V-Trigger set at 4065, that I was late entering at 4094 and that the current close is 4172, for a total net profit of +78 pips realized and +107 unrealized (this is without simulating any losses).

2) I am now flat after having engaged some sim swaps to produce a loss for the day of -70'ish pips (that's what this week is all about - losing money and then recovering from a loss).

3)...
Re-post.
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
  • #170
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:16pm Oct 27, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting Ranger911
I count at least 20 closes above and below your volatility line from Monday into Tuesday. I think you said you could handle only about 10 swaps per line. It seems like Monday you would have been stopped out and again on Tuesday before it moved to create a new line?
Here's the accurate representation of Monday through Tuesday:

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/t/34052.jpg

Total number of (actual) Swaps: 9
Total Swap cost (actual): -91 pips
Swap Method: Swap on Close

- Monday Recovery resulted in +7.5 pips net including synthetic swaps to produce a loss.

- Tuesday's Recovery was nullified by adding too many synthetic swaps which created an unreasonable single day loss of more than -180 pips, which is not fathomable for my level of risk/ward tolerance. Removing all synthetic swaps to produce a loss on Tuesday, results in a +32 pip net gain on the day, when the recovery takes over on Wednesday.

- Since there was no Tuesday recovery still in play by Wednesday morning (given the closure of an unreasonable forced loss of -180 pips), the second (2nd) V-Trigger for Wednesday was traded normally at 1530 hrs GMT -1 to simulate what a full recovery of Tuesday could have looked like. That trade was closed when Tuesday's synthetic failure of -70 pips reached break-even.
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
  • #171
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:33pm Oct 27, 2011 4:33pm
The second V-Trigger today looks like it will set at between 2115 and 1230 hrs GMT -1. However, there is no more fuel remaining in the Daily range tank (bone dry) and just as expected, the H1 volatility has begun to enter its compression cycle. Two very good reasons to let this V-Trigger walk.

Because I had to create a failed trade today (-70 pips), I was not able to participate in the 200+ pip run on today's 1st V-Trigger. But, at least its nice to see it work that well.

Next session for me will start at around 1145hrs GMT -1 on Friday, where I will continue my attempt to recover the synthetic -70 pips failure of today. Adios, till then.

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/t/7dd05.jpg
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
  • #172
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:52pm Oct 27, 2011 4:52pm
Thanks for the clarification. Do you think a high reading on a standard volatility indicator could be used to help identify a trigger level?
  • #173
  • Oct 28, 2011 4:14am Oct 28, 2011 4:14am
Quoting Line In Sand
...How can a trend ever develop without first launching itself from some line on a chart. It is impossible, else, there would be no trend at all.
I guess this also has everything to do as to how a person 'defines' a trend, i mean, most definitions are Hindsight Definitions, which automatically get you into the markets late (HH-HL for example...).

When you define such things in a limiting manner you get late entries and directional 'bias', when in the end, the only thing that truly changes in the markets is the volatility itself.

A simple move from a to b is a trend when looked at in a smaller tf/scale.

A line takes advantage of exploiting movement, and since movement/volatility is the only thing that changes, well,.. enough said.

I like how you think man, im on par with you here

Markets dont know what a trend or a range is, its an illusion nothing else.
Markets only know movement.
  • #174
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:43am Oct 28, 2011 6:43am
The point of control was established at 1:00 am at 1.4175 approximately. I wrote a buy/sell script to trade around that line and ran it on a 10 tick chart. The 1.4175 line has been crossed hundreds of times so far at the 10 tick level. I am down -$2,557 so far. This bring up many questions in my mind: is 10 ticks to fine a resolution? is the point of control the right place? When (what time of day) should one start to defend any line?
  • #175
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:26am Oct 28, 2011 7:26am
Quoting Ranger911
The point of control was established at 1:00 am at 1.4175 approximately. I wrote a buy/sell script to trade around that line and ran it on a 10 tick chart. The 1.4175 line has been crossed hundreds of times so far at the 10 tick level. I am down -$2,557 so far. This bring up many questions in my mind: is 10 ticks to fine a resolution? is the point of control the right place? When (what time of day) should one start to defend any line?
Your point of control is the same as Market profile point of control or one of you own calculations?

thanks.

-guandi
  • #176
  • Oct 28, 2011 8:00am Oct 28, 2011 8:00am
If you've read the journal (link on first post of this thread) then you know that I missed a V-Trigger at 1115 GMT -1, on the M15 chart, as I am not typically at work so early in the morning (4:15 am).

Volatility Analysis for this Friday:

Expected volatility on the H1 chart looks good and expected volatility on the D1 chart, looks even better. Average H1 volatility has not yet reached 32 pips per hour and the D1 volatility has not seen a move past 41.72% of normal Daily range. That leave about 60% fuel on-board the Day with what should be several good hours of strong volatility.

Weekly volatility has exceeded 109% of its Weekly range, so its fuel tank is now empty, but the Weekly range is still ballistic in the Long condition - this is what's providing the low level of vertical movement in the EURUS this Friday, during the European session, as the Weekly top-to-bottom tendency (Short) is working against its current ballistic Directional momentum (Long).

All of this is predicated, of course, on whether or not Friday, itself, does not decide to enter a compression cycle on price action, given the massive movement seen yesterday, as a cooling-offer period.

Fundamental Analysis for Friday:

Same as it has been for a while for the EUR. The weight of news comes out of the U.K. with meetings on what to do about the debt. On the U.S. side, the only significant economic number coming out to day is Consumer Sentiment.

Summation:

Overall, if the market does not cool-off after yesterdays boom, then all volatility channels point to having a good V-Trigger on the lurk sometime today. We'll see.

Current Condition:

I'm currently flat pending new V-Trigger.
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
  • #177
  • Oct 28, 2011 8:18am Oct 28, 2011 8:18am
Second V-Trigger now imminent - just waiting for current M15 bar to close by rule.
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
  • #178
  • Oct 28, 2011 8:25am Oct 28, 2011 8:25am
Second V-Trigger just turned "Off." I'm using a 'touching at close' trigger today, which means that if all of my Double Stoch arrangement touches my custom volatility indicator, then "set V-Trigger." That will cause some of them to turn "Off" before the end of the current M15 bar.

I also use the 'crossed at close' trigger, which simply means that if the Double Stoch arrangement crosses with my custom volatility indicator, then 'set V-Trigger." That will guarantee that the trigger does not reset it self, like it has this time.

Second V-Trigger still pending.
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
  • #179
  • Oct 28, 2011 8:25am Oct 28, 2011 8:25am
IS 32 pips per hour a fixed rule or approximation?
  • #180
  • Oct 28, 2011 8:34am Oct 28, 2011 8:34am
Second V-Trigger reset itself again and closed confirmed at $1.41417 on M15 at close of 1300 hr GMT -1 bar.

I'm busy swapping now, so I'll post more later.

Swap method today will be a mixture of RPO and Swap on Close.

Current = -25 pips.

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/t/8570c.jpg
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
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