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  • #4,901
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:20am Oct 27, 2011 3:20am
I have a growing bearish HD on several indicators on H4 and H1...
My target was hit this morning (without me being part of it) but now I'll favour the shorts. Fundies will give a hand there and it will come without warning.
Flat atm, I have a short order @ 1.399, will move it as we go up.
I would'nt be surprised to see 1.407 today and then drop

Quoting T@rantula
I agree. 4h/ daily dont show reversals yet. Today even on smaller TFs 15m-30m, even 5m is hard to sell. 15m>30m no sell setup yet.
  • #4,902
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:39am Oct 27, 2011 3:39am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Hi guys,
Hope You are doing well and not like me coz I'm little underwater now again LOL.
Just waiting for reaction of 50% haircut for bankers and rating agencies. Greece would be announced officialy default and that means France will loose AAA rating due to high debt exposure ( I think it will be S&P or Moodys).
Then the whole thing will blow up.
This is accident waiting to happen. Like a big time.

Trade well,
Seb
Well ... all you need is a little bit more patience ... that's all ...

There is no need to wait for things that must not work for us necessarily the way you want to hear now (AAA rating France etc.) as there are simply some pure technical reasons for another wave down ...

Just have a short look at this chart ... and you will see certain divergences there ...

2011-10-27 _ (10h28 CET) EUR-USD _ 030min _ 000 barchart 240-500-40

All you need is ... you must wait ...

Zones of reaction that I did apply there ... with various colors ... they are still valid ...



;-|
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-10-27 _ (10h28 CET) EUR-USD _ 030min _ 000 barchart 240-500-40.GIF Size: 76 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #4,903
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:46am Oct 27, 2011 3:46am
We may see 3970 soon. 4000 was confirmed selling level on my 5m chart. Missed it
  • #4,904
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:02am Oct 27, 2011 4:02am
Quoting T@rantula
We may see 3970 soon. 4000 was confirmed selling level on my 5m chart. Missed it
Hmm ...

I did start to short it at higher levels ... when Fini was with us here ...

And with every move higher than 1.4024 we did jump into a new position ... and of course a much larger one ...

Highest short entry has been 1.40305 until now ... from our side ...

And I think there has been time enough to pick something on board ...



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #4,905
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:16am Oct 27, 2011 4:16am
Hi Mercy
I think we will get both: tech and fundies...

Quoting mercy seat
Well ... all you need is a little bit more patience ... that's all ...

There is no need to wait for things that must not work for us necessarily the way you want to hear now (AAA rating France etc.) as there are simply some pure technical reasons for another wave down ...

Just have a short look at this chart ... and you will see certain divergences there ...

2011-10-27 _ (10h28 CET) EUR-USD _ 030min _ 000 barchart 240-500-40...
  • #4,906
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:17am Oct 27, 2011 4:17am
Me too coz I wasn't behind comp, but I'm in now @ 1.399
Quoting T@rantula
We may see 3970 soon. 4000 was confirmed selling level on my 5m chart. Missed it
  • #4,907
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:19am Oct 27, 2011 4:19am
Just another little technical argument ...

Look at these three hours candles there ...

2011-10-27_11h14_ EURUSD _ min180 _ (075a) candle + TL + MA

I always prefer H-3 candle pattern ... more than H-4 candle pattern ...

Do you see the last one?

What you expect from this?




;-|
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-10-27_11h14_ EURUSD _ min180 _ (075a) candle + TL + MA.PNG Size: 23 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #4,908
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:34am Oct 27, 2011 4:34am
Quoting mercy seat
Just another little technical argument ...

Look at these three hours candles there ...

2011-10-27_11h14_ EURUSD _ min180 _ (075a) candle + TL + MA

I always prefer H-3 candle pattern ... more than H-4 candle pattern ...

Do you see the last one?

What you expect from this?




;-|

Of course ... very near-term I don't expect much lower than 1.3980/ 74 ...

Even one more push to the upside is more likely ...

But upside limited for now ...

We will re-enter with our semi-automatic system above 1.4016 and 1.4024 and 1.4033 ...

And at each step higher with much higher amounts ...

Small things at lower levels (but not too small in order you have enough on board to play with at various lower levels) ... bigger things at higher levels ...




;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #4,909
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:49am Oct 27, 2011 4:49am
Quoting T@rantula
We may see 3970 soon. 4000 was confirmed selling level on my 5m chart. Missed it
3984 was the lowest for this attempt. 3971 still serves good for longs
  • #4,910
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:54am Oct 27, 2011 4:54am
Quoting mercy seat
Just another little technical argument ...

Look at these three hours candles there ...

2011-10-27_11h14_ EURUSD _ min180 _ (075a) candle + TL + MA

I always prefer H-3 candle pattern ... more than H-4 candle pattern ...

Do you see the last one?

What you expect from this?


;-|
Last 2 candles are shooting star and full stop candle. They usually signify the end of existing trend.
  • #4,911
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:18am Oct 27, 2011 5:18am
E:4009
S:4030
TP:3970

Countertrend trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 91 KB


Today profits so far +48 pip. Risking 20 pips on this trade with 2/3 normal lot size of +48 pip winner.
  • #4,912
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:28am Oct 27, 2011 5:28am
Quoting mercy seat
Well ... all you need is a little bit more patience ... that's all ...

There is no need to wait for things that must not work for us necessarily the way you want to hear now (AAA rating France etc.) as there are simply some pure technical reasons for another wave down ...

Just have a short look at this chart ... and you will see certain divergences there ...

2011-10-27 _ (10h28 CET) EUR-USD _ 030min _ 000 barchart 240-500-40...
Speaking about divergences, two examples on Jurik MACD with standard settings on a Daily TF.
Big bearish divergence on daily is no joke anymore.
Maby start to kick in on Monday who knows.


Regards,
Seb
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #4,913
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:49am Oct 27, 2011 5:49am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Hi guys,
Hope You are doing well and not like me coz I'm little underwater now again LOL.
Just waiting for reaction of 50% haircut for bankers and rating agencies. Greece would be announced officialy default and that means France will loose AAA rating due to high debt exposure ( I think it will be S&P or Moodys).
Then the whole thing will blow up.
This is accident waiting to happen. Like a big time.

Trade well,
Seb
Hi Seb,

read this regarding Greeks debt:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-h...tually-just-28

Maybe the banks in France can handle this???? Do not know.....
  • #4,914
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:00am Oct 27, 2011 6:00am
Quoting mercy seat
Just another little technical argument ...

Look at these three hours candles there ...

2011-10-27_11h14_ EURUSD _ min180 _ (075a) candle + TL + MA

I always prefer H-3 candle pattern ... more than H-4 candle pattern ...

Do you see the last one?

What you expect from this?




;-|
mine H3 chart looks different
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-0013.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #4,915
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:01am Oct 27, 2011 6:01am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Speaking about divergences, two examples on Jurik MACD with standard settings on a Daily TF.
Big bearish divergence on daily is no joke anymore.
Maby start to kick in on Monday who knows.


Regards,
Seb
Hi Seb,

a few more annotations regarding divergences in momentum:

I am not a big fan of judging divergences, when you have only few candles.

I very much use Awesome Oscillator. Therefore I judge the momentum in a wave by choosing a timeframe that will display 120-140 candles. Why 120-140? Because the inventor of Awesome Oscillator, Bill Williams, tried all possible ranges, and this indi with 120-140 candles reflects best the momentum progression in an Elliott wave.

Try that on MTF and you get a very good feeling for when a move is likely to stall. Keep in mind: in currencies and stocks the highest momentum is in a wave 3....
  • #4,916
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:13am Oct 27, 2011 6:13am
Quoting MJurban
mine H3 chart looks different
That is because your chart provider is not in line with commonly known start of the new "value date" at 23:00 CET / 21:00 UTC time code ...

Our H3 candles starts as follows:

23h - 2h - 5h - 8h - 11h - 14 - 17 - 20h - 23h ...



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #4,917
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:14am Oct 27, 2011 6:14am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Seb,

a few more annotations regarding divergences in momentum:

I am not a big fan of judging divergences, when you have only few candles.

I very much use Awesome Oscillator. Therefore I judge the momentum in a wave by choosing a timeframe that will display 120-140 candles. Why 120-140? Because the inventor of Awesome Oscillator, Bill Williams, tried all possible ranges, and this indi with 120-140 candles reflects best the momentum progression in an Elliott wave.

Try that on MTF and you get a very good feeling for when a move is likely to...
Thx Markus,
I just compared them and they give two completly different signals ( AO and JMACD) LOL.

Regards,
Seb
  • #4,918
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:18am Oct 27, 2011 6:18am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Seb,

a few more annotations regarding divergences in momentum:

I am not a big fan of judging divergences, when you have only few candles.

I very much use Awesome Oscillator. Therefore I judge the momentum in a wave by choosing a timeframe that will display 120-140 candles. Why 120-140? Because the inventor of Awesome Oscillator, Bill Williams, tried all possible ranges, and this indi with 120-140 candles reflects best the momentum progression in an Elliott wave.

Try that on MTF and you get a very good feeling for when a move is likely...
Es spricht der Freund von Natur-Phänomenen ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #4,919
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:21am Oct 27, 2011 6:21am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Thx Markus,
I just compared them and they give two completly different signals ( AO and JMACD) LOL.

Regards,
Seb
What is your setting for MACD?

I like to use 7, 16, 8
  • #4,920
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:26am Oct 27, 2011 6:26am
Quoting mercy seat
Es spricht der Freund von Natur-Phänomenen ...
Can not deny my scientific/technical background LOL
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