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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,181
  • Oct 25, 2011 10:09am Oct 25, 2011 10:09am
Hi UK, sorry but I am not familiar with the Fat Lady pattern. Sorry for the late reply. Saw this http://www.cnbc.com/id/45031099 and thought it interesting. Am waiting for a break of 1.3877'ish before readying a short. Kind of a sissy but I think it best to follow today rather than anticipate. Got a very nice trade on the $/CAD earlier and now waiting for the Euro to clear the junk. Trade well everyone. MaMood, thanks for the reference above.
  • #28,182
  • Oct 25, 2011 1:21pm Oct 25, 2011 1:21pm
Thanks GEfx, auxesis and MaMood. It was what fti called the pattern (or what I think that pattern looked like) unless I've got it all wrong. Never mind anyway, thanks for trying.
  • #28,183
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:43pm Oct 25, 2011 4:43pm
If you have time, read this...



ForexLive US wrap: Dumber for having watched markets all day..

 

  1. Hopes for comprehensive EU package fade just a day ahead of summit
  2. Merkel: Germany opposes section of EU draft supporting ECB continued non-standard measures from the ECB
  3. Case Shiller home price index falls 3.8% year over year in August
  4. BOC leaves rates unchanged; removes reference to eventual tighter monetary policy
  5. French PM: French Banks need just EUR 10 bln in capital; can raise it privately
  6. ECB’s Mersch: ECB can’t be used to expand EFSF
  7. Finance Ministers cancel preliminary meeting ahead of EU summit Wednesday
  8. US consumer confidence slides to 39.8 in Oct from 46.4 in Sep
  9. USD/JPY falls to fresh record low of 75.73
  10. Japanese says BOJ may announce more QE at Thursday’s meeting; JiJi says BOJ may intervene
  11. Euro group’s Juncker: Expect final decision at tomorrow’s summit; sees final, ground-breaking deal
  12. IMF may contribute to EFSF SPV
  13. Norther League says has reached agreement with Berlusconi on reform; still pessimistic about government’s survival
  14. S&P 500 falls 2% to 1229
  15. US 10-year notes fall 12 bp in yield to 2.11%
  16. WTI rises $1.60 to $92.88; gold leaps $50 to $1703

The more you watch this stuff, the less you learn. Conflicting statements. Rumors. Counter-rumors. Just silly, really.
The one thing we can take away from today’s session is that the odds of the euro group solving its problems tomorrow appear quite small indeed. Haircuts and EFS leverage amounts are not expected to be reached while many see agreement on bank recapitalization of only around EUR 100 bln being rubber stamped.
In other words, we wait in hope for the EU to fill in some very large, and important blanks.
Despite all this European uncertainty, the euro continues to perform exceedingly well. Heavy Mid-East buying was rumored again today, helping keep dips short-lived and limited. The vast bulk of the US session was spent well above 1.3900 today despite very negative sentiment toward the single currency.
Gold and Treasuries were better bet for risk-averse investors today as the dollar fair badly across the board. Traders fear a revival of QE3 before long.
CAD performed poorly today along with the dollar as the BOC dropped any pretense that it will tighten policy in the foreseeable future. From below 1.00 early in the day, we jumped as high as 1.0208 before stalling.
USD/JPY slumped to 75.73 this morning, another revived safe-haven, before pushing back up slightly on talk of more BOJ asset purchases (QE23) and on the potential for more intervention. JiJI reported that the BOJ was calling around to other central banks trying to convince them to join in a coordinated intervention. No word yet on weather their recruiting drive was successful.
By Jamie Coleman || October 25, 2011 at 20:38 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Regions, Wrap up || Tags: Wrap up || 1 comment || Add comment


http://0.gravatar.com/avatar/44b08d6...0&d=retro&r=PG
Stocks adding to losses late, eur/usd edging lower

Stocks trade like a wet bag of poo (the bottom falls out of a wet bag, now doesn’t it?) while the euro is only mildly pressured.
It is going to be very volatile for the next several days as we fend off headlines and rumors related to the EU summit.
The FT picks up on the theme that no comprehensive solution will be reached tomorrow, undermining risk tolerance.

A draft of the summit communiqué circulated to national capitals late on Tuesday and described to the FT does not include any wording on a completed deal on Greek bondholder haircuts, and instead refers only to a second bail-out being concluded sometime in the future. No timetable is mentioned.

All the market wants is facts and figures in the Europe is not yet at the point where it can provide the goods…


By Jamie Coleman || October 25, 2011 at 19:52 GMT
  • #28,184
  • Edited 5:21pm Oct 25, 2011 4:47pm | Edited 5:21pm
Quoting cuthbert
Hi Friends,

A lot is being discussed about what I would like to call 'Mind Therapy'. I am posting a link about the famous book by German philosopher Immanual Kant. This is really a very complex book but one can gain many insights about independence and objectiveness of judgement.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critiqu...27s_empiricism

Regards
Bert
hi bert,

i would like to say something against Kant, his humanist morale "Categorical imperative" is central to his thinking... and it's pretty mechanical. in my own words "do not do to others what you would not like done to you"

i think morale is in our harts not in our minds... these people like kant and later similair f. nietzsche... placed the mind first (even claiming "god is dead".f. nietzsche). to bring down religion ... that is the "independence and objectiveness" (around 1800)

problem with the mind, it predicts.. mind gets scared/ greedy... the mind is not here... it's in past, future.... ego ... all kinds of tricks.

i am sad that religion is mostly approached throught the mind now. maybe it was better before luther/calvijn/ erasmus ... when latin was the language of the church....the parish not could understand..... just love, trust and morale.

i am an agnost so i think no one (mind) can understand anyway.

just my opinion.
kind greets jacco
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,185
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:47pm Oct 25, 2011 4:47pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi friends,

someone ha recomended me a really mind opening book.

Here a small excerpt, cause I guess I'm one of theses discussing guys in the car ...
[indent]Attention is not the same thing as concentration. Concentration is exclusion; attention, which is total awareness, excludes nothing. It seems to me that most of us are not aware, not only of what we are talking about but of our environment, the colours around us, the people, the shape of the trees, the clouds, the movement of water. Perhaps it is because we are so concerned with ourselves,...


mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #28,186
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:12am Oct 26, 2011 12:12am
Quoting j-pax
hi bert,

i would like to say something against Kant, his humanist morale "Categorical imperative" is central to his thinking... and it's pretty mechanical. in my own words "do not do to others what you would not like done to you"

i think morale is in our harts not in our minds... these people like kant and later similair f. nietzsche... placed the mind first (even claiming "god is dead".f. nietzsche). to bring down religion ... that is the "independence and objectiveness" (around 1800)

problem with the mind, it predicts.. mind...
Hi Pax,

Kant did place categorical imperative at the heart of his moral synthesis but he only vouched for that categorical imperative which does not result in fundamental contradiction. For example in the statement "do not do to others what you would not like done to you", one can take a position that he is willing to inflict harm unto him and therefore, he is justifiable in inflicting it unto others.

Now, to Kant there is a fundamental contradiction in it i.e to inflict harm unto one's own self. Therefore, the subject is not justifiable in such an act.

I try to explain with another example. It is a moral law to speak truth. Now if your enemy calls you and asks for your location, and you do not tell him your location or even you tell him wrong then you are not breaking moral law of speaking truth because that was resulting in fundamental contradiction.

It is a debatable statement that moral is in our hearts and not in our minds as neither any conclusive scientific evidence corroborates it nor it has been concluded philosophically.

I am not sure if Kant was grinding his own axe and was trying to approach religion through mind but I would like to post a script from the link that I posted.

"According to Kant, only practical reason, the faculty of moral consciousness, the moral law of which we are immediately aware, enables us to know things as they are. This led to his most influential contribution to metaphysics: the abandonment of the quest to try to know the world as it is "in itself" independent of our sense experience. He demonstrated this with a thought experiment, showing that we cannot meaningfully conceive of an object that exists outside of time and has no spatial components and isn't structured in accordance with the categories of the understanding, such as substance and causality. Although we cannot conceive of such an object, Kant argues, there is no way of showing that such an object does not exist. Therefore, Kant says, the science of metaphysics must not attempt to reach beyond the limits of possible experience but must discuss only those limits, thus furthering the understanding of ourselves as thinking beings. For Kant then, the human mind is incapable of going beyond experience so as to obtain a knowledge of ultimate reality, because from pure ideas no direct advance can be made to objective existence."

You would have observed that Kant said the same as "i am an agnost so i think no one (mind) can understand anyway."

Please excuse my lengthy reply.

Regards
Bert
  • #28,187
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:16am Oct 26, 2011 12:16am
Here is the link for the book Niels mentioned before freedom from the known

http://www.jiddu-krishnamurti.net/en...from-the-known
  • #28,188
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:33am Oct 26, 2011 12:33am
Quoting nafis
Here is the link for the book Niels mentioned before freedom from the known

http://www.jiddu-krishnamurti.net/en...from-the-known
Thanks
  • #28,189
  • Oct 26, 2011 1:34am Oct 26, 2011 1:34am
Hi Friends!

Found this statement today, made by Julian Schnabel:

"Do things for yourself only - and if anyone agrees with you, it is pure coincidence".

Not sure if this is the exact wording, cause I retranslated from german into english ....

I wish you a great rading day.
Try to stay nimble, because of the EU-Thingy.
Better to trade small, than to loose big ;-)

CU,
Niels
  • #28,190
  • Oct 26, 2011 6:43am Oct 26, 2011 6:43am
Quoting cuthbert
Hi Pax,

Kant did place categorical imperative at the heart of his moral synthesis but he only vouched for that categorical imperative which does not result in fundamental contradiction. For example in the statement "do not do to others what you would not like done to you", one can take a position that he is willing to inflict harm unto him and therefore, he is justifiable in inflicting it unto others.

Now, to Kant there is a fundamental contradiction in it i.e to inflict harm unto one's own self. Therefore, the subject is not justifiable...
hello cuthbert..

thank you for explaining, i don't have much time now for a reply on the script from the link and i will think about it and post later.

on the moral part. the name Kant triggered some ideas/feelings i have and my post was too short to explain them. i give it a try.
during the rennaicense christian humanists introduced the idea of free will.
it was a revolution made posible by books.
later the humanist generation of kant went further and put people in the centre of the universe. with no guidence from above practical reason became and still is the solution to all problems.

this makes good sense for lawmakers, economists, philosophers (pseudo sientists) to create new ideas ... made out of words (wich are ideas) and ideas before them and so on.

this is needed for proffesionals in the public space... it's my opinion practical reason is mechanical it's not so good in private life.. in personal relations, in religion, and in morality.

an example before i have to go... when 18 people let a little girl die on the street i cannot think anything.. it just makes me feel sick!!

i hope i have explained ok.. no time for edit's now

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,191
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:44am Oct 26, 2011 7:44am
Quoting nafis
Here is the link for the book Niels mentioned before freedom from the known

http://www.jiddu-krishnamurti.net/en...from-the-known
Thanks Nafis

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #28,192
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:17am Oct 26, 2011 10:17am
Happy diwali to all the taf family...


May the coming time bring all the happiness and light ins your life and family..


Diwali wiki


V
  • #28,193
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:22am Oct 26, 2011 10:22am
happy deepavali to you too

sad i cant celebrate it like i did when i was in malaysia...

god i miss indian food..
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #28,194
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:36am Oct 26, 2011 10:36am
Quoting j-pax
hello cuthbert..

thank you for explaining, i don't have much time now for a reply on the script from the link and i will think about it and post later.

on the moral part. the name Kant triggered some ideas/feelings i have and my post was too short to explain them. i give it a try.
during the rennaicense christian humanists introduced the idea of free will.
it was a revolution made posible by books.
later the humanist generation of kant went further and put people in the centre of the universe. with no guidence from above practical...
Hi Pax

Can you please elaborate more on the issue if you get time and energy? My understanding of Kant's work seems to be different from that of yours.

Regards
Bert
  • #28,195
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:55am Oct 26, 2011 10:55am
Quoting bumapatria
happy deepavali to you too

sad i cant celebrate it like i did when i was in malaysia...

god i miss indian food..
yea me too.. i am in USA...and nothing like India diwali....


BTW still get good food...


V
  • #28,196
  • Edited 11:56am Oct 26, 2011 11:28am | Edited 11:56am
Quoting indianguyinny24
yea me too.. i am in USA...and nothing like India diwali....


BTW still get good food...


V
Happy festive of the light.
May all no need hide in shadows.

can't sleep, fireworks everywhere.
And many friends brought mom much cookies.
I am supposed stay off that, dur to the oil content.
But knowing me, I will be munching away as usual.
so crunchy and spicy, these cookies, no way resist.

Mom, had been driving her school bus setup for last 25+years , keep herself busy.
She grew up mostly in midst of war, so she has very active personality.
Although is a losing business, but she enjoys it.
Now is these children, all grown up now, visits her during all sorts festives.
, is nice, she has such a massive family, hundreds.
Chinese, Indians, Malays, Eurasions.
To her their affections is priceless. I tend agree.
I see her face lights up and she starts gets chatty.
She still think they are kids.


regards
  • #28,197
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:04pm Oct 26, 2011 12:04pm
Quoting cuthbert
Hi Pax

Can you please elaborate more on the issue if you get time and energy? My understanding of Kant's work seems to be different from that of yours.

Regards
Bert
hey bert,

i think it's because you know much more about him.... Kant was recommended reading for a study i did not finish a long time ago... i had to read many philosophers a little bit... all in the humanist tradition..

so my reaction was not directly at Kant but at the tradition. and i said earlier they made PEOPLE the centre of the universe.... more precise is their ideas made the INDIVIDUAL centre of the WORLD.... if you think about it... you see the results around you every day.

i'll read your part about his ideas now and maybe can relate it to my "problem" with thinking...

i will light a candle this is what you also do right?!.. happy devali
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,198
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:05pm Oct 26, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting fti
Happy festive of the light.
----
Now is these children, all grown up now, visits her during all sorts festives.
, is nice, she has such a massive family, hundreds.
Chinese, Indians, Malays, Eurasions.
To her their affections is priceless. I tend agree.
I see her face lights up and she starts gets chatty.
She still think they are kids.

regards
This conjures up such a warm feeling of community, you are lucky to have a nice mom and yummy cookies.

Happy festival to all.

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #28,199
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:12pm Oct 26, 2011 12:12pm
Quoting j-pax
hey bert,

i think it's because you know much more about him.... Kant was recommended reading for a study i did not finish a long time ago... i had to read many philosophers a little bit... all in the humanist tradition..

so my reaction was not directly at Kant but at the tradition. and i said earlier they made PEOPLE the centre of the universe.... more precise is their ideas made the INDIVIDUAL centre of the WORLD.... if you think about it... you see the results around you every day.

i'll read your part about his ideas now...
We are the center of the universe.
We we sleep everything sleeps. At least that would be our perception.
Although being the center of the universe, do no evil, be kind.And you need not live in the center of the universe all alone.

regards
  • #28,200
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:13pm Oct 26, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting Baifu
This conjures up such a warm feeling of community, you are lucky to have a nice mom and yummy cookies.

Happy festival to all.

Rgs,
Baifu
yes

regards
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