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Yet another moving average crossover system

  • #421
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:44pm Oct 25, 2011 7:44pm
Quoting maudur
Mattdede, please use it template and follow the instructions of Fullpip (Post # 410).
Thank you maudur
  • #422
  • Oct 25, 2011 7:46pm Oct 25, 2011 7:46pm
Quoting Jollyroger
Amen to that Lawgirl. I use a slightly different system but am following yours with interest and will try it soon but this market is something else. Great thread

Roger

I'm glad I am not alone in my perceptions...misery loves company for sure. Good to hear from you.
Rebecca
  • #423
  • Oct 25, 2011 8:09pm Oct 25, 2011 8:09pm
Quoting lawgirl21
Chart
Trailing stop of 40 points hit...out with 43 pips.
  • #424
  • Oct 25, 2011 9:25pm Oct 25, 2011 9:25pm
Quoting lawgirl21
These have been the hardest last 2 trading days I can remember in a very long time.
Yes, it was ranging the whole day.
Let's see what today brings to us.

Nice cross on AUDCAD H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #425
  • Oct 25, 2011 9:44pm Oct 25, 2011 9:44pm
LG nice AU Trade. ? first volley to the downside by the 3pairs.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

FPippy mentioned trend lines and H1. Thought I would post a chart.
HI trendline bounces with 3-8 crosses and a 15 pip cost of failure. I like the "W" near trend lines. Small risk. Trying it out. Not systematic yet.

Currently long EU (rise stalled by AU drop), Ranging?Probably a scratch trade. ?Last pop before Eurozone stuff.
Ready for the downside. Maybe not. Who knows?

Benefitted from the am 100 pip drop in EU. Good thread LG, and thanks for posting your trades so quickly. learning all the time.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Fullpip
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 10-25 3-8x.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #426
  • Oct 25, 2011 9:46pm Oct 25, 2011 9:46pm
Hi all,
sorry my labels are all off, but you can figure it out.
fullpip
  • #427
  • Oct 25, 2011 10:10pm Oct 25, 2011 10:10pm
I'm waiting for where the USDCHF breaks.
Attached Image
Enter Signature
  • #428
  • Oct 25, 2011 10:21pm Oct 25, 2011 10:21pm
Quoting maudur
I'm waiting for where the USDCHF breaks.

Beautiful chart....should break down...but who knows.
  • #429
  • Oct 25, 2011 10:26pm Oct 25, 2011 10:26pm
I'm long in XAUUSD. Risk = 1%.
Attached Image
Enter Signature
  • #430
  • Oct 25, 2011 10:44pm Oct 25, 2011 10:44pm


Thanks LG, this is an awesome system!!
I am still riding .5 lot on this puppy!!
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  • #431
  • Oct 25, 2011 10:56pm Oct 25, 2011 10:56pm
Quoting psydox
Thanks for adding this additional tidbit. I was wondering about the confirmation myself. Now it makes sense!

Now when you see a cross on the H1 and switch to M15 and the cross there already happened, do you still get in? Or do you wait for a better setup?
Ideally, M15 should had crossed with the direction still going strong when a cross appear in H1 as a confirmation.

I could be wrong but I think of it as this way, lower tf have a earlier cross, where as high tf have a later cross but with higher accuracy, think of higher tf cross as a confirmation
  • #432
  • Edited 2:13am Oct 26, 2011 1:06am | Edited 2:13am
Thanks


This reply will be a mess - I don't know how to do the box quote thing, sorry

Quoting forexpippy
Hey, JPassion

I might be missing something here, but I find the check against 2 completely different timeframes gives a clearer picture of over all trend/pattern and makes it easier to understand what the PA is doing. Having a load of MAs on a small TF can be pretty confusing (the idea is to keep this simple visually).

2 timeframes aren't necc. is what I"m getting at if all is being looked at is the moving averages and there is no fixed determinant for angles. 18 period MA on the 5 minute chart is the same line as 3 period MA on the 30 minute chart. Another requirement for the 2 TFs though would be that the higher T BAR has to CLOSE to confirm that the Ma has actually crossed and stayed crossed. Seeing a MA cross halfway through a bar with no view of bars themselves is deceptive.


After spotting a cross on the higher TF the reason for checking for confirmation on the lower TF was to ensure that the PA hadn't decided to move off in the wrong direction. Obviously, unless you are sitting on top of your charts waiting for the H1 bar to close and actually see the 3/8 cross, then you might be a little bit after the cross and need to check things are still set up for a good entry.

Right - so how I read that then is that you are trading the higher TF chart, with associated larger stop (i.e. your entry and exit basis is the higher TF chart). Timing the entry on the smaller TF chart is how I trade, yes you may miss the very odd trade that just takes off but fear of missing moves is something that can get traders killed. Most of the time if what you expect to happen doesn't (i.e. retrace to stops etc then takes off in direction again), it actually prevents a loss or gives a tiny loss, you are always getting in at a better price. You then have two choices - ride the move on the larger chart or trade in and out on the smaller chart as long as the larger TF chart cross remains intact (I trade in and out). Even if there is a big move that takes off, 9/10 there is a later pullback. Fear of missing a move is nothing to worry about. Doing it the other way: see cross on 30 min, look to 5, 5 is pointing up (Of course it is unless 30 minute bar has had a big retrace already) and enter straight away is asking for draw-down because the short term chart WILL pull back. Maybe not so bad if you intend on riding it out for a good while but gives much poorer r:r, disastrous if you're scalping.


Therefore I drop down to M15 and check that the 3/8 EMAs are pointing in the right direction, or there has been a recent cross....or if they are flat or heading the other way, I'll wait for the recross before entering, otherwise the set up becomes invalid and then I'll just move on to something else.

This is my own opinion, based on how I have been trading this strategy, so it might not be correct or indeed make any sense at all!
  • #433
  • Oct 26, 2011 1:13am Oct 26, 2011 1:13am
Quoting barefoot1988
Ideally, M15 should had crossed with the direction still going strong when a cross appear in H1 as a confirmation.

I could be wrong but I think of it as this way, lower tf have a earlier cross, where as high tf have a later cross but with higher accuracy, think of higher tf cross as a confirmation

Hehe, I'm coming across as argumentative here I know but that's exactly opposite to what is written in the first post. I'm getting the feeling that that is what was meant though.
  • #434
  • Oct 26, 2011 3:41am Oct 26, 2011 3:41am
This illustrates how I would trade it. Just made money on this trade and have made money all week but I'm not after big swings.

http://i1202.photobucket.com/albums/.../eurolgm30.gif

http://i1202.photobucket.com/albums/...r/eurolgm5.gif

I've just seen I've put the word 'move' in the graphic. The word should be 'miss'
  • #435
  • Oct 26, 2011 3:56am Oct 26, 2011 3:56am
Quoting JPassion
This illustrates how I would trade it. Just made money on this trade and have made money all week but I'm not after big swings.
That's a text book low risk, high probability entry. You're right, it is a much better entry than aiming for the bigger moves on the higher TF. I've found that such entries work better on M30/M5 compared to H1/M15 though.

I actually trade a slight variation on this (which I set out in a post much earlier in the thread), trying to keep to the low risk and high probability principle, where I trade the range during the consolidation in the lead up to London open (AUDUSD is great for this), buying on bounces off support, selling on bounces off resistance. This keeps my stops tight and whilst only netting 10-15 pips on average (per rebound), and ocassionally getting stopped out, it means I rarely miss the BO. And even if it IS a false BO, the fact that I got in at the bottom of the range means that I still generally net around 30+ pips, and then i'm perfectly positioned to trade the hook and subsequent run.
  • #436
  • Oct 26, 2011 4:33am Oct 26, 2011 4:33am
Hi thx for the explanation where did you get the template ? or what EMA's etc thx




Quoting JPassion
This illustrates how I would trade it. Just made money on this trade and have made money all week but I'm not after big swings.

http://i1202.photobucket.com/albums/.../eurolgm30.gif

http://i1202.photobucket.com/albums/...r/eurolgm5.gif

I've just seen I've put the word 'move' in the graphic. The word should be 'miss'
  • #437
  • Oct 26, 2011 4:57am Oct 26, 2011 4:57am
Hi

The EMAs are lawgirls: 3EMA and 8EMA, as I said, 3EMA on 30 minute = 18EMA on 5 minute (6x3=?, 6x8=?) etc. My chart is set up for trading 5 min. To trade other TFs with this method you will need to change the MAs.

Apart from that I just use pivots and a few things to make things easier to see on the chart - I'll post the template but please be aware that lawgirl likes to keep things clean & simple. These aren't magic indicators, they are just there to help me see, and to sometimes illustrate what I'm seeing, and I don't advocate cluttering up lawgirls tread with magical templates and indicators.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip JPassion Lawgirl exp.zip   91 KB | 494 downloads
  • #438
  • Oct 26, 2011 4:59am Oct 26, 2011 4:59am
Quoting JPassion
This illustrates how I would trade it. Just made money on this trade and have made money all week but I'm not after big swings.
I've just loaded the appropriate EMAs on the M5 as you suggested, and then waited for the pullback on the M5 after a cross on the M30 (I actually missed the first one as you can see).

The chart is A LOT cleaner than I expected it to be!

Thanks, this is really helpful JPassion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.jpg Size: 199 KB
  • #439
  • Edited 5:19am Oct 26, 2011 5:09am | Edited 5:19am
Nice one

As always the thing to be aware of is that it's exits that are the important thing. Sometimes you get get crazy R:Rs, a couple of trades this week have had stops less than 10 pips and returns of 40 pips and more. Last week, Friday I think it was, could have gotten 100 odd pips off the same kind of entry, (I closed for 35, risk was 8 pips), although, as I say below, getting your 2 or 3:1 day in day out is the way to go. I've made mine today. Now I'm done, and with the news coming out all day, just as well.

Make 1 trade get your 3% and done, out for the rest of the day. Make 1 trade and lose 1% and done you're out for the day. Don't over-trade. Why not continue to trade after a loss? Because it's highly possible you're entering a ranging market and about to take a beating, don't revenge trade. 1 winning trade every day or so is all you need. If you are netting even 3% per week and compounding weekly you're on the way to making more money than you'll ever need. So don't over-trader and don't be greedy.

I find if I'm trading off a pivot that 3:1 or the next pivot is optimum unless it blows through straight away, then I'll consider trailing. Waiting for MA to cross in the other direction for exit is a 1 way trip to getting a whipping.

See, it just bounced off R1 again. Had a job getting there this time and PA looks horrible but if you took your profit all was good. If you were greedy you've just had a whipping
  • #440
  • Oct 26, 2011 5:17am Oct 26, 2011 5:17am
Hi LG and all,

I have gone through the thread and I have two questions:

- what is the stop loss level set when entering? I saw in one post that you use 4 pips, but in 15min or H1 tf it is very few. Did I miss something?

- what are the blue parallel lines and boxes in the graphics?

Best regards

gonso
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