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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,081
  • Oct 23, 2011 9:55am Oct 23, 2011 9:55am
Quoting fti
I think you may have mis-understood.
My mentioning of marketmakers sweeps is not to imply that this is done to manipulate the markets.
Be clear, that, the function of marketmakers is to provide liquidity.
ie. providing the market at large , with a price to buy and sell , at all times, while under his watch.

To carry out this function, he would have to use the sweeps to create market movement and to create liquidity to extend the swings, seeking out price levels of least resistance.

Marketmakers do not create artificial pip moves, where-ever...
Hi j-pax,

I was rereading the earlier post of fti and came across this. I think that in some sense is the market manipulation that he was talking about. Market news are everywhere in this age of information... he who has the wisdom to decern the truth from the lies would eventually prevail in the market. One example that is mentioned multiple times by fti and many in this thread is the manipulation of EU. Eur is obviously in a dire state. Even a lay person like me can tell from the debts situation. But I think that the truth is obvious manipulated by the media to create the false impression that the sun is shining bright again... we have seen the bottom... etc.

Not sure if i'm making sense here. Just sharing my 2pips worth.

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,082
  • Oct 23, 2011 9:58am Oct 23, 2011 9:58am
Hi Pax,

Sorry, somehow fti's quote got trancated. Please see below for the extract.

"But problem arises when unscrupulous non marketmakers start to quote the screen of spot interbank Forex ( reuters ASAP), without the intension to deal at the quoted levels. ( their intensions are ??? ) but some are truly fatfingured typos not captured by the system filters. The marketmakers knows who are the true markets and ignore these wannabes and typos, as they can see "name". The price put up by an insignifivant party like db woud be ignored altogether but the data streams that collect the info cannot tell the real from the err. so you make your own conclusions on the reliability of your data stream.
"

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,083
  • Oct 23, 2011 10:48am Oct 23, 2011 10:48am
Quoting fti
One example is the oldman story, that was reslotted

I have another 3 stories and another 2 poems to go before midset is complete.
This are not performance critical, so I thought I may skip.
The best I can hope for is maybe 5% of the readers are seriously climbing this curve.

.... more
Hi fti,

Now that the dust has settled, would you be so kind as to share the other 3 stories and 2 poems? Only if it's not too much of trouble though...

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,084
  • Oct 23, 2011 10:54am Oct 23, 2011 10:54am
Quoting fti
We'll start with the bank.
We have large corp customers who need hedges for their FX risk on annual earnings,
so as a service we write them OTC currency options and other synthetics.
These positions have delta reads, which tells us what our exposure is.
As markets move the deltas changes.


... more
"So basically we receive premiums, for the undertaking. We collect theta and Vols moneys.
Now that gives us foreign capital to risk in the markets.
Remember, I said as the market move my delta changes.
So as the customers come closer in or out of the money,
I have to adjust the hedge of the exposures.
Sometimes when the market trend run, I could just as well expose the delta to full hedge.
or non at all if they are getting too far out of the money.
Of course other than that profits , I have spot exposures profits as well."

Dear Folks,

I do not understand the bolded portion... will some kind soul explain it to me, please? Thanks.

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,085
  • Edited 11:57am Oct 23, 2011 11:07am | Edited 11:57am
ok , situation is clear.

The EU summit is in many ways conclusive of the fate of the EU.
Disagreement...............that is bottom line.

1 group lead by France and their clowns want pay margin call. And continue feed a junkie on the high, continue finance an addicted unproductive prodigy save face.

1 group lead by German , want stop the free money to the junkie, clean up his act and reform from the weakness.

I feel , if no solution, and keep feeding the weaken junkie may drag the whole euro zone into a deep hole. Of course doing it thru the ECB gets all europe into the kenduri.

Reminds me, when i was on the exco, when had a NPL(non performing Loans) crisis.
Everyone trying lobby the bank come out with BIG money bail out every clown. Remembered my boss, asked me." Why does everyone think that by sucking us bring our money bail them out, is going solve the problem?" I promptly told him. Well , from their perspective , it would bail out their asses. Only thing is that it drags our ass into the mess carry their baby. Ya, who the hell is gonna bail our ass,when that baby shits.

Seems same is happening in euro zone now.
beginning understand why trichet keep making statement that the ECB is independent. Seems every mf had been trying crawl into the vaults.

regards

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...79M15Y20111023



"France is insisting there are legal means to avoid the ECB's participation violating EU rules against it directly financing governments -- a process known as monetary financing -- and still hopes to win Berlin round."

reminds me of a conversation i had with one of the donkeys.
"Ya ya, we can curcumvent the rules by indirect means, you know?"
i promptly shot that dang donkey back.....wtf, you asking me become a criminal.

ya ya , can't convince them, confuse them.
Maybe even start with blackmail? Maybe get buried in some banana plantation like lorrain said, when he broke his silence.
Some peeps should be put behind bars, and please throw away the key.
  • #28,086
  • Oct 23, 2011 11:13am Oct 23, 2011 11:13am
Quoting N_Trader
"So basically we receive premiums, for the undertaking. We collect theta and Vols moneys.
Now that gives us foreign capital to risk in the markets.
Remember, I said as the market move my delta changes.
So as the customers come closer in or out of the money,
I have to adjust the hedge of the exposures.
Sometimes when the market trend run, I could just as well expose the delta to full hedge.
or non at all if they are getting too far out of the money.
[b]Of course other than that profits , I have spot exposures profits as...
hi Jonathan, it is about option strategies... only done by true profesionals.... i believe no one here uses. i never tried to understand

i'll read you other post...
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,087
  • Oct 23, 2011 11:16am Oct 23, 2011 11:16am
Quoting fti
ok , situation is clear.

The EU summit is in many ways conclusive of the fate of the EU.
Disagreement...............that is bottom line.

1 group lead by France and their clowns want pay margin call. And continue feed a junkie on the high, continue finance an addicted unproductive prodigy save face.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...79M15Y20111023
Dear fti,

Thanks for the insightful sharing. Surely the time will come when the "too big to fail" becomes "too big to bail"

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,088
  • Oct 23, 2011 11:20am Oct 23, 2011 11:20am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Pax,

"But problem arises when unscrupulous non marketmakers start to quote the screen of spot interbank Forex ( reuters ASAP), without the intension to deal at the quoted levels. ( their intensions are ??? ) but some are truly fatfingured typos not captured by the system filters. The marketmakers knows who are the true markets and ignore these wannabes and typos, as they can see "name". The price put up by an insignifivant party like db woud be ignored altogether but the data streams that collect the info cannot tell the real from...
i think this is about problems with retail brokers, where we trade with.. fti stopped trading on these retail platform as far as i know.. for us there no other place to trade.

hope this answers your question

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,089
  • Oct 23, 2011 11:21am Oct 23, 2011 11:21am
Quoting j-pax
hi Jonathan, it is about option strategies... only done by true profesionals.... i believe no one here uses. i never tried to understand

i'll read you other post...
Hi Pax,

Thanks for the reply. I was not really thinking of using them. Just wanted to have a better understanding of how the market functions. everytime I reread the thread, I realised that there is still something new to learn and it's really refreshing... I only hope that I can avoid the questions that had been asked. To be frank, I have never managed to finish the whole thread. I kept rereading the first 200 pages.

I hope it's not what they term as obssessive compulsive behavior..

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,090
  • Oct 23, 2011 11:31am Oct 23, 2011 11:31am
Quoting j-pax
i think this is about problems with retail brokers, where we trade with.. fti stopped trading on these retail platform as far as i know.. for us there no other place to trade.

hope this answers your question

kind greets, pax
Hi pax,

I see what you mean now. Thanks for clearing my doubts.

Regards
Jonathan
  • #28,091
  • Oct 23, 2011 11:57am Oct 23, 2011 11:57am
Quoting fti
ok , situation is clear.

The EU summit is in many ways conclusive of the fate of the EU.
Disagreement...............that is bottom line.

1 group lead by France and their clowns want pay margin call. And continue feed a junkie on the high, continue finance an addicted unproductive prodigy save face.

1 group lead by German , want stop the free money to the junkie, clean up his act and reform from the weakness.

I feel , if no solution, and keep feeding the weaken junkie may drag the whole euro zone into a deep hole. Of course doing it thru...
what a mess Fti, here in Europe

a quote from the Reuters article.

The prospect of allowing foreign nations to decide the fate of Europe has alarmed the Europe Commission, and this option appears unlikely to win through, not least because of the implications it has for European sovereignty.

again arogant... it seems they cannot decide the fate of europe... in a positive way i mean.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,092
  • Oct 23, 2011 12:06pm Oct 23, 2011 12:06pm
Quoting j-pax
what a mess Fti, here in Europe

a quote from the Reuters article.

The prospect of allowing foreign nations to decide the fate of Europe has alarmed the Europe Commission, and this option appears unlikely to win through, not least because of the implications it has for European sovereignty.

again arogant... it seems they cannot decide the fate of europe... in a positive way i mean.
next some dogs, going bring out gender issues about which should lead eu.
anything to incite grouping and confusion. There's tons issues they may like bring out, Just to distract from the real issues.

Lets see, markets decides.
For us little ants, best just go with the tides.

regards
  • #28,093
  • Oct 23, 2011 12:18pm Oct 23, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting fti
ok , situation is clear.

The EU summit is in many ways conclusive of the fate of the EU.
Disagreement...............that is bottom line.

1 group lead by France and their clowns want pay margin call. And continue feed a junkie on the high, continue finance an addicted unproductive prodigy save face.

1 group lead by German , want stop the free money to the junkie, clean up his act and reform from the weakness.

I feel , if no solution, and keep feeding the weaken junkie may drag the whole euro zone into a deep hole. Of course doing it thru the...

http://www.malaysianbar.org.my/news_...s_silence.html
  • #28,094
  • Oct 23, 2011 12:28pm Oct 23, 2011 12:28pm
there isn't a "solution". It's not like ppl. are evil and don't want to accept a solution. There is simply - monetize the debt or allow the crash. And both scenarios point to same outcome for eur(yet timing is so hard). Plus everyone snowballed too many times - it's margin call now.

Crash is bad; problem is monetizing with the current structure just makes sure next time it'll be more to monetize - the whole union is a giant beggar thy neighbor.

in case of usd is simple - the chinese get the shaft; and, in a way, it's fair - they manipulate the yuan for decades - it's just the same medicine served back to them. Plus US military > everyone else, so...

in case of eur, part of it gets the shaft(north). Basically, the whole discussion is about north erasing the debt incurred by the south. Unexpectedly, north(it's not about geography, they happen to be north) doesn't really want that... There isn't a "solution". Plus, again, if you do it now, you'll have to do it again in couple of years.

Common finances are the only way; but noone wants that. And noone wants common finances rightfully - the european bureaucracy is a monster of inefficiency even for a bureaucracy. Plus it's helpless - each time France or Germany barks, they forget all the rules(and not even only those 2).

So, instead of wasting 1.5 years, they could've make a plan to unwind the eur and by now probably the worst would've pass already.

bad things happen when you peg and screw the market. You always have to pay - sooner or later. Yet ppl. keep on pegging. Humans are seldom wise; plus - it's so fun cutting corners(that's how I've made most of my losses in forex too - trying to cut corners)...


sorry for butting in - was reading the thread from the start and checked what was written lately. And really, Greece doesn't have much to do with it - in the end, they're irrelevant. Look at Spain(which, contrary to Greece, is relevant) - what could/did ECB do to prevent the construction bubble from taking place start of '00s(supposing they wouldn't sleep in their shoes for once and be for once in sync with times)? The mechanism(or lack of) simply makes the construct not viable.

you can't have one monetary policy for 17 countries and that's that. It's just dumb to try.
  • #28,095
  • Oct 23, 2011 12:47pm Oct 23, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting snowly
there isn't a "solution". It's not like ppl. are evil and don't want to accept a solution. There is simply - monetize the debt or allow the crash. And both scenarios point to same outcome for eur(yet timing is so hard). Plus everyone snowballed too many times - it's margin call now.

Crash is bad; problem is monetizing with the current structure just makes sure next time it'll be more to monetize - the whole union is a giant beggar thy neighbor.

in case of usd is simple - the chinese get the shaft; and, in a way, it's fair - they manipulate...
well is just like that.
Can't be helped.
One takes the dog out for a walk.
Then one has responsibility pick up the poops after it.
But there's always some wise donkey, thinks that they can make everybody else do it for him instead. Especially those that are butter sucking him.
Its the system, can't be helped.
only is sad see em piling err on err.
If sick refuse bitter medicine, untimately is death.


regards
  • #28,096
  • Oct 23, 2011 1:01pm Oct 23, 2011 1:01pm
tell me... my country is an annex of EZ. My business depends on EU running smoothly...

anyway, nowdays apparently everyone thinks they're entitled to have someone else picking the poo(not only in Europe - it'd be easy, I'd just relocate). So the poo never gets picked; then they wonder why it stinks...
  • #28,097
  • Oct 23, 2011 1:27pm Oct 23, 2011 1:27pm
Quoting snowly
tell me... my country is an annex of EZ. My business depends on EU running smoothly...

anyway, nowdays apparently everyone thinks they're entitled to have someone else picking the poo(not only in Europe - it'd be easy, I'd just relocate). So the poo never gets picked; then they wonder why it stinks...
its not personalities.
Just mindset. its everywhere.

Maybe after sometime , peeps just learn get used to the stench.
Aquired taste? maybe just like drinking wine?
Just keep going. Maybe champions will stand up, and things gets better.
Takes a crisis makes opportunities for champions.

In chinese caligraphy. The word "crisis" is made of two basic element words.
crisis=danger + opportunity.


regards
Attached Image
  • #28,098
  • Edited 2:16pm Oct 23, 2011 1:51pm | Edited 2:16pm
oh, I'm not worried about myself; probably I'd survive even an A bomb. Not bragging - surviving is infinitely more costly than ppl. who never had to imagine it is...

I'd like more from life than survival. The mentality of people was screwed; badly. The mindset, if you want, since we're trading

People started to want someone else to decide; they stopped doing their job. Of deciding who prospers and who falls - both as consumer and as voter. They aren't even willing to walk 100 meters to buy something; they buy the junk if it's closer. That's how lazy we ended up being.

It'll take decades for that to be repaired; if it'll happen. Immortal I'm not(even worse - still young enough)... and a society where majority doesn't do it's job sure looks ugly.

oh well; let's watch the match. Maybe make a buck from it; in the end, volatility ain't the worst thing for us...


ps - "So pointless was the gathering, that Didier Reynders, the Belgian finance minister, left early to attend the world premiere of the new Tintin film, The Secret of the Unicorn. " - at least they provide entertainment(short term, at least).
  • #28,099
  • Oct 23, 2011 1:59pm Oct 23, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting livindaylite
I went to St. Pauls Cathedral yesterday next to the London Stockexchange to support the energy of the #OccupytheStockExchange there. There was a wonderful vibe. Peaceful, friendly and creative energy everywhere. Everyone standing for something new. No one has all the answers necessarily, but just to stand in un-knowing in the creative moment of emptiness for something new to arise. We want to be at our ecolutionary cutting-edge... seeing what else is possible. One thing is certain: our current socio-economic paradigm is unsustainable now, as well...
Why on earth would anybody want to occupy the London Stock Exchange? I think I might put on my wheat skirt and go and occupy the Stock Exchange of Thailand...

I like this comment from the Daily Telegraph about the Occupy the London Stock Exchange facebook page:

The event currently has 225 confirmed attendees, with a further 121 tentative yes's, despite the site failing to list any aims or objectives for the event, or exactly what is being protested.

Talk about your woolly-minded liberals! I don't think they know any of the questions, let alone "all the answers"

EDIT: Apparently the Zeitgeist Moevement is opposed to money. I hope you don't mind me asking but what on earth are you doing on a foreign exchange forum if you are opposed to money...or do you just like handing out leaflets?
  • #28,100
  • Edited 3:49pm Oct 23, 2011 2:51pm | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Why on earth would anybody want to occupy the London Stock Exchange? I think I might put on my wheat skirt and go and occupy the Stock Exchange of Thailand...

I like this comment from the Daily Telegraph about the Occupy the London Stock Exchange facebook page:

The event currently has 225 confirmed attendees, with a further 121 tentative yes's, despite the site failing to list any aims or objectives for the event, or exactly what is being protested.

Talk about your woolly-minded liberals! I don't think they know any of the questions,...
these "occupying" people. have diferent questions and answers and they are debating their differences. i get a feeling most are positive. they would like a better world not for a few but everyone. i like to go there and check out the many different views.

change does not start with a good plan,, but with good intentions!!

i don't know much about zeitgeist movement and it being against money?
do you mean because they provide their books, films and events etc for free...they are against money? they write and talk about sustainability and anti globilisation (i did a litle search)

i think the movement would like some funding

regards, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
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