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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,061
  • Oct 22, 2011 12:25pm Oct 22, 2011 12:25pm
Quoting jacson101
I just told you, please take more than a moment on what I've said.

In low volatility:
buyer==seller, with a bank in between.
In high volatility:
buyer=========seller, with a bank in between.

Banks, speculators, corps each has a different operating MO.
Banks its making a market, for speculators it's to guess, and for corps. it's business activiity.

Rgds
ok i realy tried but i have to admit i do not understand how you explained volatility.
let's keep my question simple... do you think the diffent MO's make the market efficient? i think they do.

regards
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,062
  • Edited 1:17pm Oct 22, 2011 12:34pm | Edited 1:17pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
I thought volatility is the result of market ineffiency ? But to me no volatility = no profits.

besides you mention manipulators, sound like some kind to conspiracy theory to me. Usually it is a good excuse to explain away market movements we cannot understand. Although its really more of an aspect of how markets function. I am not educated enough to elaborate on that.

And you said smart money follow trends and stupid money dont. I dont agree with your definition either. Smart money knows infomation that will affect the market outcome, stupid...
ok thanks i'll google lyons .. always curious

i understand... i should used not smart stupid but informed and uninformed.... i read Banks closely monitor wich customers are informed and who not.... and use this information... i said smart/informed trades follow the trend but dit not mention they also cause and end trends

i guess this is what you mean with.. it's information game??

and i personaly think normal volatitity is caused by things like uncertainty.. iliquidity ... news etc.
like you say in your edit... the volatility Fti talks about seems different.

regards
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,063
  • Oct 22, 2011 12:57pm Oct 22, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting j-pax
ok thanks i'll google lyons .. always curious

i understand... i should used not smart stupid but informed and uninformed.... i read Banks closely monitor wich customers are informed and who not.... and use this information... i guess this is what you mean with.. it's inormation game??

and i personaly think normal volatitity is caused by things like uncertenty.. iliquidity ... news etc.
like you say in your edit... the volatility Fti talks about seems different.

regards
Yes thats what i was referring to. Another reference and easier to understand material is by Larry Harris. Yeh you probalby heard abt it, good to spend some time on it. Understanding these market mechanics is just another tool in your tool box. Still require many soft skills to win this game.
  • #28,064
  • Oct 22, 2011 1:10pm Oct 22, 2011 1:10pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Yes thats what i was referring to. Another reference and easier to understand material is by Larry Harris. Yeh you probalby heard abt it, good to spend some time on it. Understanding these market mechanics is just another tool in your tool box. Still require many soft skills to win this game.
i have found a couple of papers wich where to high level for me... i've read some things by Carol Olser... she has a clear simple writing style.
i'll make a note Larry Harris
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,065
  • Oct 22, 2011 1:31pm Oct 22, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting Baifu
No you said the first half in a very elegant way, as to the last half - even with my ears open I cannot hear everything

rgs,
Baifu
not so elegant i mixed up buy and sell!!! good luck it was not trading where i cannot edit

regards
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,066
  • Oct 22, 2011 2:01pm Oct 22, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting MaMood
I just want to tell you about an observation I made during the past few days. It is related to bumapatria, the 14 old guy, who stepped in and seems to have a lot of knowledge and experience already.
CU,
Niels
LOL! I think I need glasses. I thought buma was a girl.
  • #28,067
  • Edited 4:55pm Oct 22, 2011 4:37pm | Edited 4:55pm
Quoting Setebos
Been a while since I last wrote here. So my little bit of contribution

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR6oYX1D-0w
hey setebos, good to hear some new music... if you like hiphop you may like this... about the "ladies" .. i seem to connect everything with trading lately

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video


regards pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,068
  • Oct 22, 2011 5:14pm Oct 22, 2011 5:14pm
Quoting fti
so much tension.

Ok lets see if I can make it a little clearer.

Lets talk about the recent moves.
EUD moved up strong.
What drove it?
Go do some home work and check.
The market player are net very short.
That is no secret.
But Euro is very strong.
Why?
because there is a rock underneath taking the shorts on.
Why?
just think.
If you was major investor and had already invested much and you find market short. AND an opportunity scutter them. Why not?
That opportunity came when the EU peeps went into friday meetings.
Came out with nothing to...
i understand ..and will read it again before monday.. now i think about vacuum...where are the dealers to fill it up?? it is to late for me to think about this i'll think now about the most relaxing song to keep my mind of these matter and go to sleep!

regards pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,069
  • Oct 22, 2011 5:34pm Oct 22, 2011 5:34pm
Quoting fti
may i ask that no one here make any personality remarks of others. You want talk issues talk issues.
When issue discussion become a witch hunt on others personalities, then is become free for all.

In fact i shouldn't be posting, because i had been told numerous times by close people that i am very cranky lately. And i concur,. My body feels like shit. so please excuse that my fuse may be shorter.


regards


Good morning

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #28,070
  • Oct 22, 2011 5:44pm Oct 22, 2011 5:44pm
Quoting fti
may i ask that no one here make any personality remarks of others. You want talk issues talk issues.
When issue discussion become a witch hunt on others personalities, then is become free for all.

In fact i shouldn't be posting, because i had been told numerous times by close people that i am very cranky lately. And i concur,. My body feels like shit. so please excuse that my fuse may be shorter.


regards
senior people here are soo nice that some explained (pm.) your situation when i was feeling doubts about posting my wrong thoughts when you where in a bad sittuation... i realy appreciate this... and you inspire them... so thank you .. no excuse needed.

i now go and think about my relaxing music!!
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,071
  • Oct 22, 2011 5:46pm Oct 22, 2011 5:46pm
Inserted Video


have a nice weekend everyone
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,072
  • Oct 22, 2011 9:47pm Oct 22, 2011 9:47pm
Quoting fti
Oh, ok good dancing.
although you may not want to trade the fundamentals, but be aware of their impending releases, the FF calander may be useful for that. You do not want to be suckered into positions ahead of their releases.
Mostly for US figs , watch out for Friday mornings. esp near month end.
For Jap figs, mid week, esp tankan and keidianren reports.

regards
hello ,,, in my understanding about statement above

its better for us to trade after us figs news release

is that right ?
thx for the answer
regard
sumakianlee
  • #28,073
  • Oct 23, 2011 4:56am Oct 23, 2011 4:56am
hi sumakianlee,

i personally try to square all my trades about 30 mins before any figure news release and then wait for an oppertunity to re enter after. i have been caught out in the past leaving a trade on during the news release so now i always try to square prior, also allows you to trade without any stress and emotions are kept level, eyesight clear.

unless it is a very very different than expected release i find the trend normally resumes in the same direction it was going in prior to the release, just sometimes from a diferent postion.

to me the news=greed=stress and causes us to not see what is really happening in the charts. a battle for others (gamblers) best avoided.

regards

phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #28,074
  • Oct 23, 2011 5:43am Oct 23, 2011 5:43am
Quoting j-pax
hey setebos, good to hear some new music... if you like hiphop you may like this... about the "ladies" .. i seem to connect everything with trading lately

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPKhL...eature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfEwd...eature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxK6GzfhuTo

regards pax
Great stuff, tnx mate
Did you check the "Million Dollar Traders" video?
  • #28,075
  • Oct 23, 2011 5:50am Oct 23, 2011 5:50am
Quoting j-pax
hello fti,

i understand... the banks get our savings, they leverage it and take huge/dangerous risks.. then pay themselves, than the stockholders get payed and the lenders get 2% i go now to amsterdam to occupy the stockexchangejust kidding but i can realy understand why many people are soo angry... they did NOT forget the basics of banking!!!

i go and sit in the sun now and think about price eqilibrium... and how manipilators mess it up.

kind greets pax
I went to St. Pauls Cathedral yesterday next to the London Stockexchange to support the energy of the #OccupytheStockExchange there. There was a wonderful vibe. Peaceful, friendly and creative energy everywhere. Everyone standing for something new. No one has all the answers necessarily, but just to stand in un-knowing in the creative moment of emptiness for something new to arise. We want to be at our ecolutionary cutting-edge... seeing what else is possible. One thing is certain: our current socio-economic paradigm is unsustainable now, as well as unjust. Without either there can be no harmony, peace and longevity.

I posted Zeigeistmovement flyers on the walls and handed many flyers out having some really nice exchanges with people. It was a nice day out.

Respect to the people camping...
  • #28,076
  • Oct 23, 2011 6:50am Oct 23, 2011 6:50am
Quoting livindaylite
I went to St. Pauls Cathedral yesterday next to the London Stockexchange to support the energy of the #OccupytheStockExchange there. There was a wonderful vibe. Peaceful, friendly and creative energy everywhere. Everyone standing for something new.
I posted Zeigeistmovement flyers on the walls and handed many flyers out having some really nice exchanges with people. It was a nice day out.

Respect to the people camping...
Reminds me of the good old days....
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MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #28,077
  • Oct 23, 2011 7:04am Oct 23, 2011 7:04am
Quoting livindaylite
I went to St. Pauls Cathedral yesterday next to the London Stockexchange to support the energy of the #OccupytheStockExchange there. There was a wonderful vibe. Peaceful, friendly and creative energy everywhere. Everyone standing for something new. No one has all the answers necessarily, but just to stand in un-knowing in the creative moment of emptiness for something new to arise. We want to be at our ecolutionary cutting-edge... seeing what else is possible. One thing is certain: our current socio-economic paradigm is unsustainable now, as well...
I'm just about to go and occupy Brussels. There is nothing else to do here on a Sunday.
  • #28,078
  • Oct 23, 2011 9:17am Oct 23, 2011 9:17am
Quoting Setebos
Great stuff, tnx mate
Did you check the "Million Dollar Traders" video?
hey setebos, i saw the whole series on BBC and it was great fun... when they started trading it was the credit crunch in 2008. when i remember correct it was a nimble lady (the mother) who won. she knows how to take care of babies

relevant lyrics!?!

Inserted Video


kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,079
  • Oct 23, 2011 9:26am Oct 23, 2011 9:26am
Quoting livindaylite
I went to St. Pauls Cathedral yesterday next to the London Stockexchange to support the energy of the #OccupytheStockExchange there. There was a wonderful vibe. Peaceful, friendly and creative energy everywhere. Everyone standing for something new. No one has all the answers necessarily, but just to stand in un-knowing in the creative moment of emptiness for something new to arise. We want to be at our ecolutionary cutting-edge... seeing what else is possible. One thing is certain: our current socio-economic paradigm is unsustainable now, as well...
lividaylight, you sound like a realy positive person... what you said makes me want to go next weekend and check it out (in A'dam)... i'll report when i have been there.

kind greets pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,080
  • Edited 9:57am Oct 23, 2011 9:30am | Edited 9:57am
Quoting Erebus
Reminds me of the good old days....
It wasn't so popular in Brussels. When I got there only about 30 hippies were left and there wasn't even any weed going around!

False advertising if you ask me. There were more police than protestors.
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