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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #27,981
  • Oct 21, 2011 9:09am Oct 21, 2011 9:09am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Chief,

Dont know what is the thing...but didnt felt right....

i am long UJ avg 76.50 with 10 troops...and another 110 on sidelines.. dont want to deploy too much as london close is near and weekend is close...


Might kill it if needed too...so not in worry mode... but in "Whats happening mode"... whats going on...in meanwhile just taking care of my "NET Exposure "

V
BoJ is gaint.
moves slow.
So the uforia in europe spilling over disturb the jap girl.
but they forget if europe really pulls out of the mess.
Then they foregt who the big buyer with lots of cash coming into the market capitalise.
any way, nothing happening la.
Just killing shorts in europe for now.
just think.
if europe economics becomes really safe.
the japs need relocate 40% industries offshore.
Just keep that though behind your mind.


I not believe any real buyers there yet.
I believe many creditors holding euro exposures just waiting Lux get their money.
So all can dump their bad loads on lux.


regards
  • #27,982
  • Oct 21, 2011 9:19am Oct 21, 2011 9:19am
Quoting ukmanthailan
You are supposed to pay yourself a salary commensurate with your responsibilities, qualifications and experience so paying yourself the minimum wage when you are not the company cleaner is not really following the intent of the law. Whether people get away with it or not is a different matter.
I don't think that is the case. I pay an accountant to work out the most efficient tax position. I trust he is doing it within the law.
  • #27,983
  • Edited 9:35am Oct 21, 2011 9:24am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting fti
BoJ is gaint.
moves slow.
So the uforia in europe spilling over disturb the jap girl.
but they forget if europe really pulls out of the mess.
Then they foregt who the big buyer with lots of cash coming into the market capitalise.
any way, nothing happening la.
Just killing shorts in europe for now.
just think.
if europe economics becomes really safe.
the japs need relocate 40% industries offshore.
Just keep that though behind your mind.


I not believe any real buyers there yet.
I believe many creditors holding euro exposures...
Isnt the Japs are moving to offshore already...

Nissan kinda threaten and took one project to brazil...

Nissan CEO jap gov needs to do something..

though i know its on project but slowly its coming...

lot of sony things i bought in US is made in china...


but point noted .... i dont know what happens to Jap if manufacturing is taken out from there...anyhow macroeconimics good to know...recently was thinking to go and join and get some economics degree to understand this..

but to trade i see the chart...and what it tells...


V
PS: my friend had these headphone and this is my next traget whenever i could achieve... this is called sound

Headphone...

Sonmeone rightly said ...do one favour to yourself dont buy Sennheiser once u buy that you wont go to anything less...
  • #27,984
  • Edited 9:38am Oct 21, 2011 9:25am | Edited 9:38am
Quoting Zoran
I don't think that is the case. I pay an accountant to work out the most efficient tax position. I trust he is doing it within the law.
It certainly is the case that the IR believe you should pay yourself a fair salary, commensurate with your position and if you do not then they might consider your dividend payments to be disguised earnings (which, from what you have said, they are).

If you pay yourself the minimum wage and take the rest in dividends then you could be investigated, especially if you have set up a shell company simply to accept payment for working as a contractor. The purpose of dividends is to allow shareholders to share in the profits that a company makes, not for people to avoid paying income tax. If your income (without any dividend payments that you receive) is not sufficient to cover your living expenses then you are not following the spirit of the law in my opinion. I have no idea what you are doing though, I'm just shooting the breeze.

However, my opinion is not worth much on this topic as I am neither an accountant nor do I work for the Inland Revenue.
  • #27,985
  • Edited 9:53am Oct 21, 2011 9:32am | Edited 9:53am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Isnt the Japs are moving to offshore already...

Nissan kinda threaten and took one project to brazil...

Nissan CEO jap gov needs to do something..

though i know its on project but slowly its coming...

lot of sony things i bought in US is made in china...


but point noted .... i dont know what happens to Jap if manufacturing is taken out from there...anyhow macroeconimics good to know...recently was thinking...
ai ya, if jap industry locate any where is still jap production. You not understand Jap corp mindset and protocol yet. is corp culture , all on its own.
ai ya sony china?
try peel off the label read behind, says sony or sorry?
everytime i see sony label, sure some where find word sorry.

In malaysia have malaysian car, was called mistsibshi now called proton.
you understand?

There is one super recording media. Is called JVC is actually victor company usa, now is J
the real Jap solid states are like sanyo and a whole range of nakes you probably cannot pronounce.
You buy the same model of product in japan use grade military components, for export grade c.
the beauty is looks exactly alike. Nikon japan uses purple, else where , red, blue.......

You need understand kaijin mindset to really understand la.


regards
  • #27,986
  • Edited 10:41am Oct 21, 2011 10:26am | Edited 10:41am
Quoting fti
ai ya, if jap industry locate any where is still jap production. You not understand Jap corp mindset and protocol yet. is corp culture , all on its own.
ai ya sony china?
try peel off the label read behind, says sony or sorry?
everytime i see sony label, sure some where find word sorry.

In malaysia have malaysian car, was called mistsibshi now called proton.
you understand?

There is one super recording media. Is called JVC is actually victor company usa, now is J
the real Jap solid states are like sanyo and a whole range of nakes...
ok, nice weekend everyone.

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  • #27,987
  • Oct 21, 2011 10:26am Oct 21, 2011 10:26am
Hi everyone, it's really good to see some conversation here, and especially good to see fti and MaMood talking and participating. I am joining MaMood on the sidelines now so have shut down my trading station for the week. I traded the GBP/$. E/$, and the $/CAD today. Although the GBP and Euro moves make little or no sense to me, you just have to go with the flow and take the pips the market is offering.

It's been an interesting time trading the last few weeks. I have reviewed my trading activity and can note that many of my first trades of the day have been break-out trades, so perhaps that fact is the cause of my nervousness about the markets.

It's getting a little tense in Europe, so let's see what the weekend/next week bring us. Spooky rumor that the Germans are distributing information to banks with estimates of DM exchange rates.
  • #27,988
  • Oct 21, 2011 10:34am Oct 21, 2011 10:34am
Hi Everyone,

Glad FTI you're back, hope you're getting better - all the best.

I need some advice, i was short since 8330 (not the best level as it looks now) but still holding that position and i have a bailout at 3885. Do you guys think i should succeed or is it better to turn back and go long now? m5 says its not over yet but on bigger TF it looks like its quite exhausted now and should retrace at least some pips down.

I thought to close all position at 3850 what would give me BE and maybe i would be able to close books before End of the day. Can you please help / suggest?

thanks
  • #27,989
  • Oct 21, 2011 10:43am Oct 21, 2011 10:43am
Quoting ukmanthailan
It certainly is the case that the IR believe you should pay yourself a fair salary, commensurate with your position
Like I said, I pay my accountant to worry about those sort of things. I trust he knows what he is doing.
  • #27,990
  • Oct 21, 2011 10:46am Oct 21, 2011 10:46am
Quoting mario83
Hi Everyone,

Glad FTI you're back, hope you're getting better - all the best.

I need some advice, i was short since 8330 (not the best level as it looks now) but still holding that position and i have a bailout at 3885. Do you guys think i should succeed or is it better to turn back and go long now? m5 says its not over yet but on bigger TF it looks like its quite exhausted now and should retrace at least some pips down.

I thought to close all position at 3850 what would give me BE and maybe i would be able to close books before End...
did you bother to read the thread? just don't hold it over the weekend.
  • #27,991
  • Oct 21, 2011 10:51am Oct 21, 2011 10:51am
Quoting piccolo
did you bother to read the thread? just don't hold it over the weekend.
yes i did, but dont want to close with that big loss when theres potenital chance to win this fight or at least lower the loss.

cheers
  • #27,992
  • Oct 21, 2011 10:53am Oct 21, 2011 10:53am
Quoting mario83
Hi Everyone,

Glad FTI you're back, hope you're getting better - all the best.

I need some advice, i was short since 8330 (not the best level as it looks now) but still holding that position and i have a bailout at 3885. Do you guys think i should succeed or is it better to turn back and go long now? m5 says its not over yet but on bigger TF it looks like its quite exhausted now and should retrace at least some pips down.

I thought to close all position at 3850 what would give me BE and maybe i would be able to close books before End...
A small loss is victory , best be out and relaxed.
There is no point flogging dead horses.
Have a nice relaxing weekend.
Hit em when the iron is hot. Don't put ghost in your minds , when you need have clear and decisive actions.

regards
  • #27,993
  • Edited 11:12am Oct 21, 2011 11:01am | Edited 11:12am
Quoting Zoran
Like I said, I pay my accountant to worry about those sort of things. I trust he knows what he is doing.
Sure thing. What you do is none of my business anyway. We've strayed a long way from my original point, which was that too many people in the UK take more than they contribute. I'm not sure if you are trying to insist that you also belong in this category or that people who pay themselves with dividends are not lazy and feckless, therefore making my original comment inaccurate....and to be honest I'd rather not discuss your personal situation as I don't know you.

I did know a number of people who spent many years claiming unemployment benefits / disability allowance in the UK though, and there was no reason why they could not have worked if they wished to. I resented supporting such people with my contributions but now I do not pay any tax to the UK government so I don't have anything to grumble about.
  • #27,994
  • Oct 21, 2011 11:19am Oct 21, 2011 11:19am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Sure thing. What you do is none of my business anyway. We've strayed a long way from my original point, which was that too many people in the UK take more than they contribute. I'm not sure if you are trying to insist that you also belong in this category or that people who pay themselves with dividends are not lazy and feckless, therefore making my original comment inaccurate....and to be honest I'd rather not discuss your personal situation as I don't know you.
I'm certainly not one to sponge on people, that's for sure. My accountant tells me that what he does is the most efficient method within the legal guidelines (essentially best practices) so I pay my fair share of taxes but I don't take advantage of any loopholes (or something inland revenue may question).

When it comes to trading though, no taxes are paid if done through a spreadbetting account, unless they are deemed professional gamblers.

You may grumble about paying for the cheats, however, I will grumble about my tax money being used to invade other countries and causing so much death and destruction.
  • #27,995
  • Oct 21, 2011 11:23am Oct 21, 2011 11:23am
Quoting Zoran
I'm certainly not one to sponge on people, that's for sure. My accountant tells me that what he does is the most efficient method within the legal guidelines (essentially best practices) so I pay my fair share of taxes but I don't take advantage of any loopholes (or something inland revenue may question).

When it comes to trading though, no taxes are paid if done through a spreadbetting account, unless they are deemed professional gamblers.
I wasn't suggesting you were a sponger, I don't really understand the point you are trying to make to be honest.

I'm not actually 100% sure about my tax situation regarding my trading activities as my broker is in the UK but I am not. I may need to move my account if it becomes an issue.
  • #27,996
  • Oct 21, 2011 11:26am Oct 21, 2011 11:26am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I wasn't suggesting you were a sponger, I don't really understand the point you are trying to make to be honest.

I'm not actually 100% sure about my tax situation regarding my trading activities as my broker is in the UK but I am not. I may need to move my account if it becomes an issue.
You can trade via spreadbetting account. The platforms are just like any other but the trading comes under the spreadbetting law, meaning it is treated like gambling so there is no tax to pay on profits. The alternatives are taxable above the capital gains limit.

I'm not based in the UK either but I still operate through it.
  • #27,997
  • Oct 21, 2011 12:35pm Oct 21, 2011 12:35pm
Who is Cavite Organics?
  • #27,998
  • Edited 3:35pm Oct 21, 2011 3:07pm | Edited 3:35pm
Quoting fti
@j-pax
what bucketshop?
tier 1 is making you the market. They ARE the market.
How is anyone going make you markets without sweeping all your wanting trade levels?

Japanese tier ones, operates 24 hours. Making market into all sectors.
And the biggest tiered operating in Far East is an Italian Bank.
Lat i checked there are 197 banks active in forex in the Far East Zone and that was years ago.

And what so scary about Top tiers laiden with bad debts.
I ask you?
What is the function of a Bank?
The bigger they are, the more their burnt rice.
Hello Fti,

first of all i hope your health is steady... that comes first. so read this when you have good energy and are curious. ignore it when you need. i understand !!

i found and read a Norway CB working paper and was thinking there where some interesting things that changed after the release of the NY-FED workingpaper you recommendend on marketstructure.
i believe this paper is seriously made and consider it reliable by looking at the sources they use
... yesterday i just picked a statistic that amazed me, related to the dealers-laid off and made a quick lazy comment!

i'll try to answer your questions

When i said bucketshop (i agree it's disrepectfull) i meant matching orders (for the liquid major pairs!!) in the banks book/bucket.
According to the paper, the concentration of big banks happens because the high cost of technology and tight spreads makes dealing major pairs unprofitble for most banks ...
most banks focus more on their regional currencies with higher spreads and profit from their expertise and customer service.i think this is the basics of what i've read

You asked me what is the function of banks? The main task, i think, is to provide liquidity. I believe now, most of the time, liquidity in the major pairs is provided by Financial and corporate customers, retail, algoritm and high freq. trading. this makes orderflow and this moves the markets ... this means the interdealer market is now smaller relative to the total FX market.
the different prices are collected from different sources to get the best price, like "market" here on forex factory.
http://www.forexfactory.com/market.php

dealers monitor the order flow and provide liquidity when it's low....and manage the netto position/risk in the interdealer market.
In minor and exotic pairs/crosses it is still the dealer himself who provides liquidity. This is How i understand this article!

About me beëing scared ..it's because the CB's, the banks and many are worried. preperations are made for what is coming. last one i read: japan and korea increasing their currency swaplines five fold. my scare (a worried feeling) It is because of newsheadlines i don't realy understand.

i am just a tourist in the financial world... trying to make sense of complex things.
don't feel you have to explain or comment if i am wrong.. a regards or wrong will be fine.

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,999
  • Oct 21, 2011 3:25pm Oct 21, 2011 3:25pm
Quoting fti
A small loss is victory , best be out and relaxed.
There is no point flogging dead horses.
Have a nice relaxing weekend.
Hit em when the iron is hot. Don't put ghost in your minds , when you need have clear and decisive actions.

regards
Have a nice relaxing weekend FTI! I did win this battle, closed with small profit and really can relax during the weekend now. My small victory was your another success, because its you who put so much effort to teach us how to deal with the market and deal with difficult situation.


Much much appreciated for your work. All the best!
  • #28,000
  • Edited 4:21pm Oct 21, 2011 4:07pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting Zoran
Who is Cavite Organics?
@ just a coconut tree.rofl: who wants be my freind in fb.
Is a very nice tree.

Eurogroup Meeting Shows Little Progress on EFSF Leverage Plan

OMG, I cannot believe it. OMG, OMG.
This 1st time I have so much respect for his stance.
Unbelievable. and he's leaving soon.
I always believe that beneath all that front, is a good man. And Of course buba is not crazy enough go that direction.

"France’s proposal to give the EFSF a banking license so it can
access funds from the European Central Bank has been opposed by Germany
and by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet."

For this i take my cap off to him.


regards
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