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vsa with Malcolm

  • #22,101
  • Oct 20, 2011 12:09pm Oct 20, 2011 12:09pm
What do you guys think ? Going long to 50 fibbs ?

http://i56.tinypic.com/25piesg.gif
  • #22,102
  • Oct 20, 2011 1:27pm Oct 20, 2011 1:27pm
I have talked about this before, but I think now is a good time to bring it back up for discussion.

I believe that the concept of buying and selling bars are very important to the BBs.

First let's define a buying bar: A buying bar is a bar that makes a higher high than the previous bar and not a lower low. We are not dealing with the close in anyway. A selling bar is the opposite. It makes a lower low than the previous bar and not a higher high.

(If a bar makes a higher high and a lower low than the previous bar, it is an outside bar. Conversely, an inside bar makes neither a higher high nor a lower low.)

** From a VSA perspective, the terms buying and selling bar are often misleading. More on this later, but we need to begin to understand this.**

Two Points we want to understand:

1. Many retail traders, systems and trading methods are keyed to higher highs and lower lows. This should make sense. The basic definition of an up trend is a market making higher highs and higher lows. Therefore, if the current interval is making a higher high and not a lower low, the immediate trend can't be down. Or so the thinking goes.

2. Point two is very important and not often mentioned. New buyers do not cause rising prices, rather rising prices bring in new buyers. New sellers do not cause falling prices, rather falling prices bring in new sellers.

It is exactly for this reason that prices are marked up (artificially) before the bottom falls out, or prices are marked down before a bull run. In the case of a mark up, prices are lifted artificially to entice new buyers to whom the BBs can sell their supply.

Okay, let's cut to the chase. When you see a bar that makes a higher high than the previous bar and not a lower low but closes near the low of its range, it must be weakness. The retail trader will call it a buying bar, but those looking at VSA will see the low close and look at the activity (volume). The converse is also true. When you see a bar that makes a lower low than the previous bar and not a higher high but closes near the high of its range, it must be strength. The retail trader will call it a selling bar, but those looking at the market the way the SM does, will see the high close and look at the activity (volume).

On my most recent post, I showed a Hidden Test. This Test makes a lower low and not a higher high than the previous bar. The close near the high of the range and up versus the previous close on volume less than the previous two bars. What is happening here? The BBs have marked the price down to induce the sellers to come out and sell more. The low volume and the high close tell us that there were no sellers. So although this interval is closing up as our ideal No Demands do, this can not be No Demand.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,103
  • Oct 20, 2011 6:12pm Oct 20, 2011 6:12pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Whilst I do not want to get into a fight over nomenclature, I would not call it a No Demand. I would call it a "Hidden Test" that fails.



Th short answer is this. Do you believe that Tests/No Supply bars are the oppostie of No Demands? If you do, then look at the definiton given. No Demands can close lower whilst making a higher high. The opposite of that would be closing up and making a lower low. Well the opposite is a Test/No Supply. Therefore a No Demand can make a lower low.

The long answer will be in a future post........
Hello HG. Please do not interpret my comment as having a pejorative tone or intent. I respect you and enjoy your commentary.

I think you're wrong for two reasons. First, the main premiss of VSA is that extremely well capitalized trading entities proactively run campaigns to accumulate and distribute trading/investing instruments. This means they are proactive and purposefully plan and execute their trade campaigns such that they know in advance where the price bottoms and tops shall be for they make it so. Second, test bars have a purpose to the operators. No Demand bars do not. Tests are used at bottoms to determine if other large well capitalized trading entities are seeking to distribute supply when the testing entity seeks to advance prices after a time of accumulation. This by its very nature must happen at bottoms after a time of accumulation. No Demand bars are simply market drift and indicate a lack of bullish price advancing participation on the part of the campaigning operator or operators. This by its very nature must happen at swing highs after a period of marking up prices but prior to a period of distribution. Smart and Big Money does not put prices up on itself to test for break-up buyers after inducing the heard to rush in an buy in a climax. If they did so, they would lose money. Tom Williams noted this in MTM p.94 where he wrote:

Quote

buying on up-moves when there is supply coming onto the market ... Both of these tactics are very quick ways to go broke!

As the bar in question had a middle-ish close, it would represent, if it were a purposeful test, a big money operator buying up price into supply. Thus it cannot be a hidden test for it is in the wrong place for testing purposes. Thus I am justified in concluding the bar is only market drift and thus falls into the No-Demand category.

I am done with this topic. Let us move on to more profitable discussion.
  • #22,104
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:23pm Oct 20, 2011 10:23pm
Quoting rbumbalough
Hello HG. Please do not interpret my comment as having a pejorative tone or intent. I respect you and enjoy your commentary.

I think you're wrong for two reasons. First, the main premiss of VSA is that extremely well capitalized trading entities proactively run campaigns to accumulate and distribute trading/investing instruments. This means they are proactive and purposefully plan and execute their trade campaigns such that they know in advance where the price bottoms and tops shall be for they make it so. Second, test bars have a purpose to...
See the long answer. For the record, the current method used to teach VSA implies that for every sign of strength there is an opposite sign of weakness. Under this school of thought, a test is equal to a no supply and a no demand is the opposite of a no supply.
  • #22,105
  • Oct 20, 2011 10:52pm Oct 20, 2011 10:52pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Welcome to the team. You'll soon learn that you have access to the minds of some great VSA traders like Intel, Frankkn, Pres78 and Sonofsin. You'll also find that the list of great VSA trades grows as the thread thrives (there must be some connection here).

Anyway, to answer your question about volume. To be honest, this question continually comes up and I personal hate it. Ultimately, the real answer is you must trade what you see.......
Thanks HG and neutral.I am sorry i have asked repetitive questions.
  • #22,106
  • Oct 20, 2011 11:02pm Oct 20, 2011 11:02pm
Quoting Volume Jedi
.... For the record, the current method used to teach VSA implies that for every sign of strength there is an opposite sign of weakness. Under this school of thought, a test is equal to a no supply and a no demand is the opposite of a no supply.
Yes it is true that Lauren states in her webinars that there are only 8 signs of strength and 8 signs of weakness and they are the opposite of each other. Yes it is also true that when Gavin was asked the difference between a No Supply and a Test, he said there was none. It is also true that some of the TG indicator boxes come up as No Supply/Test. Which would imply a similarity.

What is also true is that I have said many times that I do not believe a Test is the same thing as a No Supply nor is it the opposite of a No Demand. If you read the post, I never said nor inferred that I believe they are opposite. I merely posited that if one does believe they are opposite, then by definition a No Demand can not make a lower low.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,107
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:10am Oct 21, 2011 5:10am
trade day..

I trade shocks better than the trend
i do not konw why..
Trend will be to guess the top and bottom
ok...310pips today.
good luck
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  • #22,108
  • Oct 21, 2011 9:06am Oct 21, 2011 9:06am
Hello,

Who can do me a favor to post a EUR/USD m15 chart from esignal or any other reliable feeds with volume? Attached chart is fxsol and citi, I think there is a big difference in one of the volume bars.

thanks
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  • #22,109
  • Oct 21, 2011 9:22am Oct 21, 2011 9:22am
Quoting Volume Jedi
See the long answer. For the record, the current method used to teach VSA implies that for every sign of strength there is an opposite sign of weakness. Under this school of thought, a test is equal to a no supply and a no demand is the opposite of a no supply.
And what exactly is the "current method" used to teach VSA?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #22,110
  • Oct 21, 2011 10:08am Oct 21, 2011 10:08am
Pretty much given up on VSA but saw this on silver 5min...just for fun.
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #22,111
  • Oct 21, 2011 1:18pm Oct 21, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting polomine
Who can do me a favor to post a EUR/USD m15 chart from esignal or any other reliable feeds with volume? Attached chart is fxsol and citi, I think there is a big difference in one of the volume bars. thanks
Late, but hopefully helpful. Should be a Citibank liquidity feed, although I have my doubts if that is the case.
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  • #22,112
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:58pm Oct 21, 2011 8:58pm
Quoting polomine
Hello,

Who can do me a favor to post a EUR/USD m15 chart from esignal or any other reliable feeds with volume? Attached chart is fxsol and citi, I think there is a big difference in one of the volume bars.

thanks
TDFX:
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Pepperstone (Razor):
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Cheers
  • #22,113
  • Oct 21, 2011 10:53pm Oct 21, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting polomine
Hello,

Who can do me a favor to post a EUR/USD m15 chart from esignal or any other reliable feeds with volume? Attached chart is fxsol and citi, I think there is a big difference in one of the volume bars.

thanks
I think Ibfx is quite good
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  • #22,114
  • Oct 22, 2011 1:52pm Oct 22, 2011 1:52pm
http://content.screencast.com/users/...10-22_2043.png
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #22,115
  • Oct 23, 2011 1:15pm Oct 23, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting pres78
And what exactly is the "current method" used to teach VSA?
Inserted Video
  • #22,116
  • Oct 24, 2011 5:28am Oct 24, 2011 5:28am
Hello Today I took this test on m5/m10. SL is 6 pips, TP is ATR or end of London session.


Lets see how it goes.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...10-24_1218.png
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #22,117
  • Oct 24, 2011 5:40am Oct 24, 2011 5:40am
Quoting BeLikeWater
Hello Today I took this test on m5/m10. SL is 6 pips, TP is ATR or end of London session.


Lets see how it goes.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...10-24_1218.png
2 Interesting bards that made me think about closing but I didnt pull the trigger, because of greed.

Remember trading is not only a matter of analisys. .

http://content.screencast.com/users/...10-24_1231.png
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #22,118
  • Oct 24, 2011 5:47am Oct 24, 2011 5:47am
Quoting BeLikeWater
2 Interesting bards that made me think about closing but I didnt pull the trigger, because of greed.

Remember trading is not only a matter of analisys. .

http://content.screencast.com/users/...10-24_1231.png
can I ask you sir ? Why these two bars made you think ? thanks for answer for dummies
  • #22,119
  • Oct 24, 2011 6:10am Oct 24, 2011 6:10am
Quoting kocurko
can I ask you sir ? Why these two bars made you think ? thanks for answer for dummies
Narrow spreads, High volume up bars closing off the lows, after strengh = weakness.

No results from efforts.

We are all dummies until we have read MTM 10 times.
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #22,120
  • Oct 25, 2011 6:44am Oct 25, 2011 6:44am
Here I would like a more particular situation with Oanda open orders. Here we are in a process of accumulation of orders. But for the moment a gib accumulation of retail orders is missing. That means market makers would not be tempted to generate a spike into the orders level.

And the second thing is that there is not a possibility of a trend continuation beased on stop losses domino movement. It looks like the market is cleared from all accumulation. This began to happen since the last week.

The screen shots:

The VSA is not outdated. But we need to update a little bit our knowledge.

1. The existence of HFT (High Frequency Traders). There are some HFT that are predatory towards the big institutionnal volume.

2. The big institutionnal volume prefers to go to dark pools, instead of placing orders at the stock market. If they do the HFT are so efficient that they are eaten alive.

more on this topic here:

3. In Forex there is a new emerging pattern. This is again accumulation and distribution but not between little traders and institutional volume but between market makers and retailers.

This can explain some part of the the short term volatility.

The game now is more difficult than ever. I just keep in mind the nice stock charts when the VSA was the ultimate weapon. Today we have a big complexity game between:

market makers as liquidity providers,
institutionnal volume
high frequency traders
algorythmic traders
retail traiders

Some pattern emerge. The old patterns still work but it is not the same.

For example look at the chart of the bitcoin currency.

For someone who is aware of the VSA analysis the picture was cristal clear.
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