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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #27,861
  • Edited 1:34pm Oct 18, 2011 12:13pm | Edited 1:34pm
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
I hope you are doing well.

Just some thoughts.
Maybe the enlighten will shead some light for me.

in 2003, KC liu came to me asked for some assistance , revive our scouts brotherhood.
At that time, the whole movement was going to the wolfs.
They lost Royal Air force support , lost government support, Lost comaradieship with other troops of similar activities.
In short become splinter of everything and anything peeps wanted them to be.
KC, Wan HY,myself and a very dedicated teach named raguna, we rolled uped our sleves, to bring life back...
hello Fti,

the only juristriction for ECB was price stability... they now let banks park money overnight,they are buying periferal debt and they swap euro for dollars with the fed for banks liquidity... so they took some tasks wich are not theirs originaly...

you asked valid CB?? i think ECB was not a valid CB... mostly the national CB's regulated financial markets... i think they are too small so i guess ECB has taken over some tasks like overnight deposits.

i cannot understand the implications but it sounds like the market is broken.... normaly banks would do these things between themselves right???

when the shit realy starts flying... politicians can ignore democraty... and use real firepower... and explain it to the public/ voters. they did so after lehman brothers.
i have a bad feeling it has to get much worse before politicians can act and then it's maybe too late. the scary thing is i cannot imagine what too late means.

my wishfull thinking is they understand how bad it is going to be and kick the can down the road to get ready...

i hope you will ignore the turmoil in the world when you need to relax!!

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,862
  • Edited 12:56pm Oct 18, 2011 12:40pm | Edited 12:56pm
@ Chandre our DutchAngel.


I am sorry , hear about the test.
However not be afraid.
Its just a test in living.
The almighty God, he test us in mysterious ways.

Hold to steady calm and find ways forward.
I know you can.
I just went dug out the year book manual you took troubles published for all friends here.
See your resourcefulness?
There's no need worry. Just do what it takes, stand on feets again.

Prayers and thoughts of you.

regards
  • #27,863
  • Oct 18, 2011 1:37pm Oct 18, 2011 1:37pm
Quoting j-pax
.........................

laptop eur-usd 5-15 min with 12sma monitor eur-jpy and eur-gbp 15min-1 hr. eur-usd 1hr.-daily. below this usd-yen gbp-usd and eur-usd 15min.-1hr

kind greets pax
Hi j-pax!

I don't know if your picture shows everything, but I would not recommend
to trade on the same platform where you analyze the charts, etc.

Don't give the broker more information about you, he anyway already has ....
You are already enough "transparent" to your broker .....

Do you know what I mean?

(Don't take this wrong, it is what I thought as soon as I looked at your photo.)


Rgs,

Textor
  • #27,864
  • Oct 18, 2011 1:58pm Oct 18, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting textor
Hi j-pax!

I don't know if your picture shows everything, but I would not recommend
to trade on the same platform where you analyze the charts, etc.

Don't give the broker more information about you, he anyway already has ....
You are already enough "transparent" to your broker .....

Do you know what I mean?

(Don't take this wrong, it is what I thought as soon as I looked at your photo.)

Rgs,

Textor
Hi textor,

you are right i trade and analyse on the same platform.. it's nice you bring this to my attention... do you mean (for example) they can slow down execution when it matters most by looking at my pairs and timeframes??

i could be paranioa, one way executes faster then the other way. it happens sometimes with me on oanda .. and not on rbs marketindex.

i have often compared oanda and rbs quotes with the agregated quotes here on FF. market (cool FF. feature!!)and i never saw stranges things there.

thanks and kind regards, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,865
  • Oct 18, 2011 2:08pm Oct 18, 2011 2:08pm
Quoting j-pax
Hi textor,

you are right i trade and analyse on the same platform......

thanks and kind regards, pax
Hi j-pax!

No need to fall into paranoia.
But you have to understand that you do not trade "interbank" but the prices of your broker.
And he can, actually do, "invent" price peaks, etc.
Do not forget that this is one of the reasons why we do not use stop loss.
He (the broker) has no need to know that you use SMA's, or you
look at the three "kingdoms", etc.. All is information.
It's the way I see it...

Rgs,

Textor
  • #27,866
  • Edited 2:30pm Oct 18, 2011 2:12pm | Edited 2:30pm
Germany And France Have Reached Agreement On A €2 Trillion Plan To Rescue The Euro

http://www.benzinga.com/news/11/10/1...an-to-rescue-e

V

PS: seems fake news...but gives you a good point to get a short...IMHO...
  • #27,867
  • Oct 18, 2011 2:43pm Oct 18, 2011 2:43pm
Quoting textor
Hi j-pax!

No need to fall into paranoia.
But you have to understand that you do not trade "interbank" but the prices of your broker.
And he can, actually do, "invent" price peaks, etc.
Do not forget that this is one of the reasons why we do not use stop loss.
He (the broker) has no need to know that you use SMA's, or you
look at the three "kingdoms", etc.. All is information.
It's the way I see it...

Rgs,

Textor

bad execution happens not often and about being paranoid, i was not suffering, sometimes i get a better price ... but execution was the first thing i thought about. it irritates me when it takes 3 or 4 sec.

good evening, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,868
  • Oct 18, 2011 2:55pm Oct 18, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Germany And France Have Reached Agreement On A €2 Trillion Plan To Rescue The Euro

http://www.benzinga.com/news/11/10/1...an-to-rescue-e

V

PS: seems fake news...but gives you a good point to get a short...IMHO...

Hi Vick, thanx for the info.
I do not think it is a fake, but finally not, what was expected by I guess. It is only about leveraging the the EFSF to 2bln ... But build up your own opinion ..

NEW YORK, October 18 (IFR) - News that France and Germany have agreed a E2trln plan to "resolve the sovereign debt crisis" has been leaked to the UK's Guardian newspaper according to their website. EUR/USD took off like a rocket and stocks surged alongside. EUR/USD hit 1.3817, DJIA +2.25%, Dow back to +1.64%, EUR/USD 1.3800. ...
The Guardian says the EFSF will be leveraged up (as has been discussed by all and sundry since last week) which will allow the fund to guarantee bond holders ... the article claims this will act as a 5x multiple, bringing the available war chest up to E2trln. "The EFSF will effectively become an insurer, thereby overcoming European Central Bank resistance to the idea of turning into a bank" the article states.
They say Europe's banks only require some E100bn additional capital to meet the 9% capital ratio the EBA is "demanding". The article claims that senior sources reckon French and German banks can attain the required capital levels without assistance from the state but "other countries" (ahem... Italy) "may need financial support from the state or the EFSF". They say private investors' haircuts will be ratcheted up to 50% from the agreed July 21 package 21%.
As per usual .... details to follow ... some at the weekend Fin Min meeting, the balance at the Cannes summit.
Quite frankly, pardon the pun, it's all a "Cannes" of worms. We are being re-served the same "promises" we got last week. No extra flesh on the bones except the 5x leveraging of the EFSF (we'll see how that goes down with German politicians back at the Bundestag ... and not Merkel's tame supporters) Secondly the French do not want a 50% haircut because French banks are highly exposed to Greece. It's interesting that this has somehow all been "magicked away". Finally the legal implications and knock on effects at the rating agencies, CDS exposures etc. mean that this is (as we reported last week) a really complicated structure which needs more than a little finessing. Maybe that's why EUR/USD slumped back to 1.3777 given again. [email protected]
Copyright (c) 2011 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets


Diaclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #27,869
  • Oct 18, 2011 2:57pm Oct 18, 2011 2:57pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Vick, thanx for the info.
I do not think it is a fake, but finally not, what was expected by I guess. It is only about leveraging the the EFSF to 2bln ... But build up your own opinion ..


[indent][i]NEW YORK, October 18 (IFR) - News that France and Germany have agreed a E2trln plan to "resolve the sovereign debt crisis" has been leaked to the UK's Guardian newspaper according to their website. EUR/USD took off like a rocket and stocks surged alongside. EUR/USD hit 1.3817, DJIA +2.25%, Dow back to +1.64%, EUR/USD 1.3800. ...
The Guardian...
Thanks Niels...

i do miss your mornign coffee... anytime u can start serving those again ???

V
  • #27,870
  • Oct 18, 2011 3:10pm Oct 18, 2011 3:10pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Thanks Niels...

i do miss your mornign coffee... anytime u can start serving those again ???

V
Yeah - that have been different times.

Not sure if I will be able to do that, cause the news do not play such a big role, as at that time. I still scan the news before I start trading, but on a much more rough level. I discovered that I tend to get more predictive, when I pay that much attention to the news ...

When I ever will find some time and have got my trading business settled already, I'm pondering about starting something like a Trading Radio. It will be something similiar to my live trading sessions. No trade calls but showing the idea of managing the risk actively.

But I have no idea, if that will ever come true
  • #27,871
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:06pm Oct 18, 2011 4:06pm
Quoting MaMood
Yeah - that have been different times.

Not sure if I will be able to do that, cause the news do not play such a big role, as at that time. I still scan the news before I start trading, but on a much more rough level. I discovered that I tend to get more predictive, when I pay that much attention to the news ...

When I ever will find some time and have got my trading business settled already, I'm pondering about starting something like a Trading Radio. It will be something similiar to my live trading sessions. No trade calls but showing the...




V
  • #27,872
  • Oct 18, 2011 5:36pm Oct 18, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
I hope you are doing well.

Just some thoughts.
Maybe the enlighten will shead some light for me.

in 2003, KC liu came to me asked for some assistance , revive our scouts brotherhood.
At that time, the whole movement was going to the wolfs.
They lost Royal Air force support , lost government support, Lost comaradieship with other troops of similar activities.
In short become splinter of everything and anything peeps wanted them to be.
KC, Wan HY,myself and a very dedicated teach named raguna, we rolled uped our sleves, to bring life back...
Hi fti and everyone. Isn't it funny that just about 18 months ago, the talk was that the euro would replace the dollar as the reserve currency? The recent economic troubles have exposed the weaknesses of the euro (along with everything else -- lol). Unfortunately, the europeans continue to throw liquidity at a structural problem, so fti, I think you are right when you say it seems unmanaged, because all 17 countries are in charge. No single centralize authority to make decisions for the whole. The announcement this afternoon and the markets subsequent reaction just shows how desparate the market is to see this problem resolved. Too bad the solutions they are working on will provide only temporary relief. If they refuse to resolve it themselves, the markets are going to tear them (and the euro) apart. If you want a viable euro, you must give up your sovereign rights. If you don't give up your sovereign rights, you must give up the euro. The political powers and elites of europe talk about the huge cost of dumping the euro, but the people of europe place a greater value on sovereign rights than money. I understand that and agree with it.
  • #27,873
  • Oct 19, 2011 2:37am Oct 19, 2011 2:37am
Hi and good Morning Friends!

This morning I was not sure, if I should trade EURUSD short or long. As you all know, if you are in a down- or up-trend depends strongly on the Timeframe, you are observing.

But to get more clearness, I just turned my M5 chart arround (upside down).

So the question I was asking me:
Because I was believing in an up trend, when I turn the chart, will I see a convincing down trend or not?

Juts do it.
It was very suprising, how this little experiment will clear things up.
Just amazing ...

All the best!

NIels
  • #27,874
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:44am Oct 19, 2011 3:44am
Quoting MaMood
Hi and good Morning Friends!

This morning I was not sure, if I should trade EURUSD short or long. As you all know, if you are in a down- or up-trend depends strongly on the Timeframe, you are observing.

But to get more clearness, I just turned my M5 chart arround (upside down).

So the question I was asking me:
Because I was believing in an up trend, when I turn the chart, will I see a convincing down trend or not?

Juts do it.
It was very suprising, how this little experiment will clear things up.
Just amazing ...

All the best!...
Hi Niels,

Thanks for sharing this. It's a very elegant method indeed

Cheers
n
  • #27,875
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:48am Oct 19, 2011 3:48am
Quoting textor
Hi j-pax!

I don't know if your picture shows everything, but I would not recommend
to trade on the same platform where you analyze the charts, etc.

Don't give the broker more information about you, he anyway already has ....
You are already enough "transparent" to your broker .....

Do you know what I mean?

(Don't take this wrong, it is what I thought as soon as I looked at your photo.)


Rgs,

Textor
Hi Textor,

This is new to me. I didn't know that such behavior would be tracked and used against you... Perhaps I will need to exert more care in the future.

I always have the impression that there are so many traders out there behaving/trading in so many different ways. So it will be quite impossible to "target a certain group of traders in this manner.

Regards
n
  • #27,876
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:52am Oct 19, 2011 3:52am
Hi again,

have written a little indicator that allows me to do some "tricks" with the chart like printing it upside down.
Have both charts up on my screen at the same time, to get a better idea of how our mind plays tricks with our perception....

It looks like that ....

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 22.JPG Size: 140 KB
  • #27,877
  • Oct 19, 2011 4:22am Oct 19, 2011 4:22am
Something that I discovered so far:

At least my mind is looking much more intensive to find a reason, that an up move might hit an unbreakable resistance, than that a down move might be stopped by a support....

Crazy, what there is going on in my head ...


p.s.: This weakness might be founded in our very natural perception, that everything, that is thrown up, will come back down soon. So a down move seems to be the more natural move ...
  • #27,878
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:01am Oct 19, 2011 5:01am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

have written a little indicator that allows me to do some "tricks" with the chart like printing it upside down.
Have both charts up on my screen at the same time, to get a better idea of how our mind plays tricks with our perception....

It looks like that ....

.
Yes, our mind does play tricks with us indeed.
Attached Image
  • #27,879
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:16am Oct 19, 2011 5:16am
Quoting Zoran
Yes, our mind does play tricks with us indeed.
the the is duplicated.
nothing wrong with the number series.

good one.
  • #27,880
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:21am Oct 19, 2011 5:21am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
I hope you are doing well.

Just some thoughts.
Maybe the enlighten will shead some light for me.

in 2003, KC liu came to me asked for some assistance , revive our scouts brotherhood.
At that time, the whole movement was going to the wolfs.
They lost Royal Air force support , lost government support, Lost comaradieship with other troops of similar activities.
In short become splinter of everything and anything peeps wanted them to be.
KC, Wan HY,myself and a very dedicated teach named raguna, we rolled uped our sleves, to bring life back...

My take is that the ECB is the most powerful institution in Europe. Certainly Trichet spent a lot more time telling governments what to do than the reverse.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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