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  • #61
  • Oct 15, 2011 5:08pm Oct 15, 2011 5:08pm
I would also point one more thing out, all a profitable trading method has to do is to put the odds of winning a few % in your favor over a coin toss. All you need to do is to overcome the spread and a little bit more.

I actually suggest that you carry out a coin toss experiment,

For example select 4 pairs, and enter trades at certain times of day, use a coin to choose direction, set tp and sl for 2:1 RR. i.e. TP-50 pips and SL-25 pips.

Do this a few 100 times an track the results, you may be surprised
  • #62
  • Oct 15, 2011 5:47pm Oct 15, 2011 5:47pm
Quoting Finoli
I can honestly say that my risk management is very poor. E.g. a friend of mine told me about a trade with good risk:reward, but the stoploss was big. I took the trade anyway and lost $15 of my $100 account.
What was the risk/reward and what was the time frame? Was the setup a repeatable pattern?

Was the stop loss huge in terms of pips or was it just huge to you and your risk tolerance?

It sounds like you need to understand simple risk/reward fundamentals. (as do most traders.)

If you can find a setup or two where it's easy to identify a 1:2 risk/reward ratio, you only need to be accurate 3 times out of 10 to break even and 4 times out of 10 make money.

The trick is finding a setup that has a 40% chance or better of playing out. Once you've found that, then adjust your risk to the setup. If the setup needs a 20 pip stop, then make sure the target is 40 pips. Adjust your lot size to the 20 pip stop.

You may only get the setup 3 times a week, but that's were patience and discipline come in.

If you find the setup not reaching 40 pips 40% of the time but reaching 30 pips 60%, then you're at a lower risk/reward ratio. Not a big deal, but now you need a higher accuracy rate to be profitable. If you've mastered your setup and are cruising at 65% accuracy or better then you're on your way.

Like I said, the trick is to find those one or two setups that you enjoy trading and that you can trade well. And if the setup or system does not provide a way to gauge risk/reward then ditch it. (I'm not saying that they're worthless, just saying that this approach doesn't apply to those sorts of methods/systems.)
  • #63
  • Oct 15, 2011 5:48pm Oct 15, 2011 5:48pm
Quoting highlander2
I would also point one more thing out, all a profitable trading method has to do is to put the odds of winning a few % in your favor over a coin toss. All you need to do is to overcome the spread and a little bit more.

I actually suggest that you carry out a coin toss experiment,

For example select 4 pairs, and enter trades at certain times of day, use a coin to choose direction, set tp and sl for 2:1 RR. i.e. TP-50 pips and SL-25 pips.

Do this a few 100 times an track the results, you may be surprised
Yeah.. what he said.
  • #64
  • Oct 15, 2011 10:19pm Oct 15, 2011 10:19pm
Quoting Callisto
I wouldn't say that; I'm sure you that it must make it much easier for you to understand the importance of the difference of losing 2% compared to 15%.

Quick, how much is the difference between losing $15,000 and $2,000?

See, you are way ahead of us high school dropout, wannabe traders

As for the fundamentals, not so much you need to understand them in detail, just be aware of them, bit like Indiana Jones going into a room full of snakes he doesn't know how, why or when they got there, he just knows they ARE there!
Fair point. My post wasn't meant to discourage anyone studying economics, its quite interesting and good to have an understanding of what drives markets. For me however being profitable seems to be more down to managing my emotions, and following rules.

Quoting andri66
The degree is so we can get a job and fund our trading capital..besides it's always someting useful understanding economics..How can anyone believe that Mr.G.Soros ( the only famous trader for decades) earn his money in forex using any of the Indicator at MT4 (Moving Average,Fibonacci,MACD,etc)..So many people using it and 99% of them lose their money..Almost all retail trader using same Indicator and almost all losing Money ..So most of them don't have any EDGE ..Should make you thinking why ? ..Just my 2 cents..
The problem I have with understanding economics as your edge, is that a lot of the time the market moves illogically (to the outside observer). How often is there a Frankie fake before London makes the big move, or on a larger time frame there might be a strong rally just before a drop. I'm more interested in understanding the markets characteristics and trying to exploit them, than trying to be right.

If you were trading the fundamentals this week you would have been punished. Keep in mind I don't count "Shares rise on risk appetite" as fundamentals, often the news seems to just try its best to explain the markets craziness. Say the EUR/USD rally this week continues, a week or two from now we might learn in the news that there was a deal going on behind the scenes to bail out banks (for example) or it could just be a short covering rally, but we are quite far behind the leaders. so it makes sense to just play the technicals and try and avoid a bias. Again, unless you are taking a long term view, short term the fundamentals do more harm than good.

This week another example was the Australian unemployment data. We had a strong rally leading up to the release, then a fizzle on release. Hard to trade the fundamentals when they are already priced in.

To the OP:

Trade live. Get your dad to open an account in his name and let you trade it, even if it is peanuts. I remember thinking trading forex would be so simple after a few weeks on demo. The challenge isn't being right, normally it's pretty easy to pick the right direction. The challenge is to do that consistently while being under the pressure of losing real money. It's a much different game live.

FF is a goldmine. But Gold is rarely just sitting on the surface. Be prepared to dig through a lot of dirt before you find the good stuff. For every experienced poster here prepared to give you honest and helpful advice, expect 10 more newbies with a false sense of accomplishment to mislead you. You should take my advice with a grain of salt, I'm not one of the experienced posters. Common sense will get you ahead. If you can sift through the crap, you will learn to trade.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #65
  • Oct 16, 2011 1:03am Oct 16, 2011 1:03am
Quote
*just another noob asking how to get rich trading*
It's easy.

1) Drop out of school.
2) Open trading account.
3) Put life savings in trading account.
4) Go to internet forums and ask people how to become profitable.
5) Trade live.
6) Gain infinite money and make daddy jealous.







P.S. Seriously though, you're fucking 16. Are you even legally allowed to trade? Come back when you're NOT a teenager.







P.P.S. Oh and don't listen to the posters here acting all knowledgeable and telling you what to do. 95% of them are consistent losers. I know! lol. It's true though. They just like listening to the sound of their boring "trading wisdom". Price action, S/R, Risk/Reward ratios, compounding, discipline, blah blah blah. Trust me, nothing these guys will tell you isn't already written a million times elsewhere.







P.P.P.S. By the way, you can still educate yourself about economics, the financial markets and whatnot in the meanwhile. Just don't trade real money, because I am so sure you'll lose it that I'd short you at high leverage if I could. That'd be some easy money.







P.P.P.P.S. I know you will still ignore this advice, so good luck anyway.
  • #66
  • Oct 16, 2011 10:57am Oct 16, 2011 10:57am
Quoting Marv
It's easy.

1) Drop out of school.
2) Open trading account.
3) Put life savings in trading account.
4) Go to internet forums and ask people how to become profitable.
5) Trade live.
6) Gain infinite money and make daddy jealous.







P.S. Seriously though, you're fucking 16. Are you even legally allowed to trade? Come back when you're NOT a teenager.







P.P.S. [size=1]Oh and don't listen to the posters here acting all knowledgeable and telling you what to do. 95% of them are consistent losers. I know! lol. It's...
First of all, age is just a number. A 16-year old can be 10 times more fit to become a trader than a 30-year old.

And no, i'm not fucking asking anyone about how to become successful, Im simply asking people about what they've found to be helpful during their time as traders. You are inclining a lot that makes me see that you didn't read shit in this thread.
I can for myself see if someones advice is bad, because I'm smart enough and i've gained enough knowledge about forex to see what advice should be taken in and what should be thrown away.

Like yours.
  • #67
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:02am Oct 16, 2011 11:02am
Quoting Halifax
To the OP:

Trade live. Get your dad to open an account in his name and let you trade it, even if it is peanuts. I remember thinking trading forex would be so simple after a few weeks on demo. The challenge isn't being right, normally it's pretty easy to pick the right direction. The challenge is to do that consistently while being under the pressure of losing real money. It's a much different game live.
I am currently reading Trading In the Zone, and I think it will help me get rid of my emotions a bit. Emotions define the gap between demo and live (not mentioning the real money) and learning to control those emotions may help transition easier.

Thank you.
  • #68
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:02am Oct 16, 2011 11:02am
Quoting Finoli
First of all, age is just a number. A 16-year old can be 10 times more fit to become a trader than a 30-year old.

And no, i'm not fucking asking anyone about how to become successful, Im simply asking people about what they've found to be helpful during their time as traders. You are inclining a lot that makes me see that you didn't read shit in this thread.
I can for myself see if someones advice is bad, because I'm smart enough and i've gained enough knowledge about forex to see what advice should be taken in and what should be thrown away.

Like...
  • #69
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:14am Oct 16, 2011 11:14am
Seven lucky rules to succeed in FX

1. Find a good reliable broker that will pay out if you win and one that will not trade against you over agressively,
stay away of bucketshops and Market makers.

2. learn money managment.

3. find a trading system that works and stick to it's rules allways.

4. learn to master your self, do not let fear and greed rule your trading.

5. be honest with your self.

6. keep statistics on all your trades and check them often.

7. you must believe in your trading system.

Good luck!
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #70
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:44am Oct 16, 2011 11:44am
Quoting Finoli
First of all, age is just a number. A 16-year old can be 10 times more fit to become a trader than a 30-year old.

And no, i'm not fucking asking anyone about how to become successful, Im simply asking people about what they've found to be helpful during their time as traders. You are inclining a lot that makes me see that you didn't read shit in this thread.
Very expected answer.

Yes, age doesn't matter, as long as you're an adult. You need to at least be one in order to be able to handle this kind of profession (emotionally, financially, etc).

Quoting Finoli
I'm smart enough i've gained enough knowledge about forex
Yeah yeah, typical answer again.

No you're not and no you didn't, or you wouldn't be needing this thread to begin with. Don't give me the "I don't, I was just curious" BS.

Quoting Finoli
i'm not fucking asking anyone about how to become successful, Im simply asking people about what they've found to be helpful during their time as traders.
And the two are different?

Right.

Quoting Finoli
You are inclining a lot that makes me see that you didn't read shit in this thread.
Don't have to "read the thread". Got better things to do. You asked a question, I gave my answer. Take it or leave it. Since it's the latter (again, as I expected), good luck trading a real account. You'll need it.

I know I'm being tough on you, but it's nothing personal.

Goodbye.
  • #71
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:45am Oct 16, 2011 11:45am
Quoting roughtrader
3. find a trading system that works and stick to it's rules allways.
As I am studying, I can only check my trades a couple times every hour. Most systems seem to be based on the M5 timeframe, which does not suit me right now. Do you know any systems that are based on H1 to D1 tf?
Would be great.

Finoli
  • #72
  • Oct 16, 2011 11:52am Oct 16, 2011 11:52am
Quoting Marv
Yeah yeah, typical answer again.

No you're not and no you didn't, or you wouldn't be needing this thread to begin with. Don't give me the "I don't, I was just curious" BS.
Yes, I have learned enough to understand what could be helpful and what is complete bullshit. I never said I have enough knowledge to trade etc, so read my post again before saying shit that is nor here nor there.


Quoting Marv
And the two are different?

Right.
Uhm, yes? The two are very different. How dumb must you be to not see the difference? I'm not even going to bother explaining it because I've had quite enough out of you.
  • #73
  • Oct 16, 2011 12:37pm Oct 16, 2011 12:37pm
You flat out cannot beat the FX market on a regular basis unless you do it full time. The attention to detail is enormous. You have to tend to it with the greatest care for countless hours.
When I was laid off, I traded FX very successfully, because I was able to watch it day and night w/o any interruptions. Once I started working again, I got crushed because I flat out could not watch what was going on. The optimum times to trade were during working hours, and you simply cannot watch the market and work at the same time.
Once I started working and losing, it dawned on me that I had to close my FX account...... If I have an opportunity to trade full time again, I will do it. If you are losing on a consistent basis; it is probably because you are attempting to trade and work at the same time, among other things. Just a word to the wise.
  • #74
  • Oct 16, 2011 1:02pm Oct 16, 2011 1:02pm
Quoting Troikaone1
You flat out cannot beat the FX market on a regular basis unless you do it full time. The attention to detail is enormous. You have to tend to it with the greatest care for countless hours.
You mean YOU cannot beat the FX market on a regular basis unless babysitting with care for countless hours.

Lowered lot size, wider stops and consistent setups and there's no reason he can't make pips swing trading. It's just a matter of adjusting for the time frame.

I actually find swing trading a helluva lot easier than day to day trading and a lot less stressful because of there's less at risk per entry. I'll make x amount in 2-3 days instead of 1 day because of the reduced trade size.
  • #75
  • Edited 1:23pm Oct 16, 2011 1:13pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting JR97
You mean YOU cannot beat the FX market on a regular basis unless babysitting with care for countless hours.

Yes.....you have to babysit it...lol!!!! The first time I took a major loss while trying to work was when a pair I was trading hit support on a major trend line. If I had been on my home computer, I could have easily seen this support line and I would have gotten out immediately with good profit. I was having lunch when it happened, and I couldn't see the trend line on the small window of my cell phone. That should have served as a warning, but I was determined to work and trade. We're not even gonna talk about the stress of following a position into the London open (2am CST) and then into the US premarket open (6 am CST). If you do that a few times during the week, you will be a mess during the work day. When I was trading full time....I could capitalize on every 40 to 50 pip run w/ ease no matter what time of day.

Your greatest weapon in trading FX is patience. If you can outwait the market, you will beat it. I found there were a few times during the week that were considered optimum times to trade and I had the luxury of waiting PATIENTLY. Once I started working; I found myself trying to force in a trade b4 I went to work. If you force it.....you will lose.
  • #76
  • Oct 16, 2011 1:29pm Oct 16, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting Troikaone1
You flat out cannot beat the FX market on a regular basis unless you do it full time. The attention to detail is enormous. You have to tend to it with the greatest care for countless hours.
When I was laid off, I traded FX very successfully, because I was able to watch it day and night w/o any interruptions. Once I started working again, I got crushed because I flat out could not watch what was going on. The optimum times to trade were during working hours, and you simply cannot watch the market and work at the same time.
Once I started working...
That makes a lot of sense, but another guy said that trading on the daily tf doesnt take that much screening.
  • #77
  • Oct 16, 2011 1:38pm Oct 16, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting Finoli
That makes a lot of sense, but another guy said that trading on the daily tf doesnt take that much screening.
I respect that person's opinion and I'm glad they figured out a way to trade that works best for them.
  • #78
  • Oct 16, 2011 3:04pm Oct 16, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting Troikaone1
I respect that person's opinion and I'm glad they figured out a way to trade that works best for them.
Yes, sounds quite nice.. seems hard to achieve such skill though.

I sure have a lot to learn
  • #79
  • Oct 16, 2011 3:35pm Oct 16, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting Finoli
That makes a lot of sense, but another guy said that trading on the daily tf doesnt take that much screening.
I look at charts for about an hour per day. For my first couple of years trading, I watched price movement for eight to ten hours per day, and studied static charts on weekends. This is something you should do, if you can. Gradually it tapered off. I come to the charts around 6:00 New York time, go through my currency pairs on the Daily chart, either enter, exit or stay out, then don't look at them again until the next evening.
  • #80
  • Oct 16, 2011 3:38pm Oct 16, 2011 3:38pm
Quoting JR97
Like I said, the trick is to find those one or two setups that you enjoy trading and that you can trade well. And if the setup or system does not provide a way to gauge risk/reward then ditch it. (I'm not saying that they're worthless, just saying that this approach doesn't apply to those sorts of methods/systems.)
Pretty much this, only way to figure that out though is to just go and trade. Keep the risk small and make sure to really analyze your trades good or bad and you'll get there.

If you focus on the process instead of the results you'll do fine.


(P.S. So you're 16, who cares. You don't magically become a genius at 18. Sure you might be more even headed as a result of experience, but it doesn't really matter in something like this. Anyone who says your age is an insurmountable hurdle is just being mean.)
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