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Lost in the Tunnel...

  • #381
  • Apr 7, 2006 5:12pm Apr 7, 2006 5:12pm
Trend Change - DOWN to UP
The following image illustrates how a trend change from DOWN to UP is signalled.

I have marked three bars with pairs of colored dots placed on the moving averages. Study the image below and you will see that the strength of each bar is determined by subtracting the lower moving average (5 SMA) from the upper moving average (21 EMA).

In the image below, the momentum of the "red" and "yellow" bars increases from 281 to 285 indicating a continuation of the current DOWN trend.

However, the momentum of the "yellow" and "green" bars decreases from 285 to 270. This decrease signals a trend change from DOWN to UP.
Attached Image
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #382
  • Apr 7, 2006 5:13pm Apr 7, 2006 5:13pm
An Increase OR Decrease in Momentum Indicates a Trend Change

Most of the time, a trend change will be indicated by a decrease in momentum. However on some occasions, an increase in momentum will indicate a trend change. Regardless of whether an increase or a decrease of momentum indicates a trend change, you should start taking positions in the direction of the new trend immediately. You do not wait until crossover occurs. Sometimes, you don't get a crossover between trend changes. And, while most trend changes are indicated by a decrease in momentum, there are some occasions where the trend change is marked by an increase in momentum.

Here are the two sequences that mark a trend change.

The first is when a decrease in momentum marks the trend change, and is the one you'll see most of the time.

The second sequence occurs less frequently and is characterized by an increase in momentum marking the trend change.

First Trend Change Sequence

1. Momentum continues to increase from week to week indicating the current trend is still in place.
2. Momentum decreases from one week to the next indicating a trend change has occurred.
3. Momentum continues to decrease until a crossover of the 21 EMA and 5 SMA occur.
4. Crossover Occurs
5. Momentum begins to increase following the crossover.
6. The next decrease in momentum marks another trend change.

Second Trend Change Sequence

1. Momentum continues to increase from week to week indicating the current trend is still in place.
2. Momentum decreases from one week to the next indicating a trend change has occurred.
3. Momentum continues to decrease, but then .....
4. No Crossover Occurs.
5. Instead, momentum begins to increase again marking the beginning of a new trend.
6. The next decrease in momentum marks another trend change.

In summary, a change in momentum always indicates a change in trend, however a crossover does not always occur between trend changes.

The image below will help illustrate a trend change without a crossover.

Please pay special attention to the red bars. These are all bearish bars with lower highs and lower lows indicating the trend is in the downward direction. Please note that the price action of these bars PRECEEDS the trend change as indicated by the increase in momentum. This is why the Vegas Team said that the model is vulnerable to losses during trend change. Use of discretion is advised. If the price action strongly indicates a trend opposite that indicated by momentum, you may wish to either stay out of the market, or to trade against the momentum trend and with the price action trend. If in doubt, stay out!
Attached Image
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #383
  • Apr 7, 2006 6:07pm Apr 7, 2006 6:07pm
Thank you Charles for your last three posts above. Your updated information on determining the weekly trend change was very well written (in good old plain english!) and illustrated.
: - )
Thom
  • #384
  • Apr 7, 2006 7:04pm Apr 7, 2006 7:04pm
Quoting jerseydevil20
That just makes no sense. The Vegas system was free. The discussion on the FF is free. All my forex knowledge to date has been free. You can find almost any custom indicator you need for MT4 for free. Guys over on Forex TSD will even code things for you if you ask nicely. I completely disagree, and I don't think I'm alone (isn't that right pippie?). Paying for anything doesn't guarantee its quality; the same is true in reverse.
Pretty good observations. But if you think or believe something will greatly benefit you but it's not free, are you not willing to pay for it? Not everything in life is free. If you want it free, you have to sift through all the noise. I think you've also observed this since you've got all your knowledge for free. I also believe you can be able to get the info you need for free in the net today. But if you believe you've found something worth paying for, will you not pay for it?

I know that there are those who cannot afford most specially on the 3rd world countries like mine. I'm just blessed that I'm earning and saving and able to spare some money in order for me to invest in me.

I also have on the back of my psych of not always receiving. I need to give something back because if I don't, something's not in balance.

I've been receiving too much from the guys here and I really wanted to give something back. Not just to them but to the FF community as a whole.

Also, please do remember that VWB 3 is also not free. And in the info file from him, he also indicated why he charges the document.

Quoting jerseydevil20
FYI, money management and position sizing is not an industry secret you can only get on pay sites. I agree with you, though, it is not discussed nearly enough despite the effect it can have on your account.

BTW, I've got no beef with the PF or anyone in it. I was just making an observation.
You're observations are welcome and the way you delivered it is respectful. As long as it's delivered in that way, I think discussions will push through smoothly (in my opinion that is).

Regards,
East
  • #385
  • Edited Apr 8, 2006 12:38pm Apr 7, 2006 9:13pm | Edited Apr 8, 2006 12:38pm
Quoting pippie
Regarding the PF, If they are so successful at trading, why do they charge for information.
God, I wish I had a dollar for every time I've had to endure that asinine statement!

Pippie, successful people cultivate multiple streams of income. If I make my living as a successful professional photographer, does it make me less of a success or less of a photographer because I also teach photography classes for an extra income stream? I would just be leveraging my talent for more income.

Quoting pippie
Payment, for info or modification of the VWB is not, I don't believe, what Vegas intended. I think it is great a sucessful person , such as vegas, truely tries to help someone struggling as most of us are.
pippie
Vegas put his stamp of approval on the Private Forum as indicated in an email from Vegas to Diallist:

Quoting Email from Vegas to Diallist

Dial,

Yes, by all means you have my permission. In fact, you guys were the ones I was thinking of when I put that paragraph in the file. Here's the deal: I know people are going to share anyway, so they might as well have my blessing. Besides, I'm not doing it for the money anyway. It's good for everybody if you guys can build your business base. I'm only too glad to help you out. you put a lot of work into the forum, and I respect and appreciate your efforts. Your forum allows a person like me to share his knowledge and experience with others. I hope you guys get a million subscribers!!

-Vegas
You can see the above in the original at http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...72&postcount=1


Fryes
You want Fryes with that?
  • #386
  • Apr 8, 2006 3:28pm Apr 8, 2006 3:28pm
Quoting Fryes
God, I wish I had a dollar for every time I've had to endure that asinine statement!

Pippie, successful people cultivate multiple streams of income. If I make my living as a successful professional photographer, does it make me less of a success or less of a photographer because I also teach photography classes for an extra income stream? I would just be leveraging my talent for more income.



Vegas put his stamp of approval on the Private Forum as indicated in an email from Vegas to Diallist:



You can see the above in the original at http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...72&postcount=1


Fryes

Fryes,
The e-mail from Vegas you posted above was about PF mirroring the signals from Collective2.
Regards,
Cristian
  • #387
  • Apr 8, 2006 3:41pm Apr 8, 2006 3:41pm
Quoting eastmaels
But if you believe you've found something worth paying for, will you not pay for it?
Absolutely. And I do not fault anybody that does. With over 100 members I'm sure the PF generates a lot of good discussion and synergy.
  • #388
  • Apr 8, 2006 6:43pm Apr 8, 2006 6:43pm
Quoting jerseydevil20
...With over 100 members I'm sure the PF generates a lot of good discussion and synergy.
I've been in the PF since the beginning and can state the quality of discussion and the power of its "synergy" is at the top of any private training i've experienced in any area of business, finance, personal development, and now trading.

: - ) worth every cent and more.
Thom
  • #389
  • Apr 11, 2006 2:11pm Apr 11, 2006 2:11pm
Quoting jerseydevil20
Paying for anything doesn't guarantee its quality; the same is true in reverse.
The reverse is true in case of PF. Quality is too good for the price we pay for that.

Shan
  • #390
  • Apr 11, 2006 3:54pm Apr 11, 2006 3:54pm
It is unfortunate that some members feel disenfranchised. I am a little confused though. Why should any education in any field be free? I started out in the public forum and received outstanding advise and guidance. The information in the thread by HeavyJ about his trading style is spot on prefect.
I have never read a better description of Dow theory than the thread MuddBuddha posted. The description of the trading method used by 777 is second to none. (that was commented on by the author as recently as today). Of course the Vegas files are without compare at any price.

I could go on and on, but this is not the place for an epic.

If you are not comfortable with the information discussed here that is truly unfortunate. However the fault cannot fall on the collective members of the public forum who have given so much.

I recently realized that there was information I needed from FIGI trader about money management and mind set That I have paid much more in the past to attempt to acquire. This information is copyrighted by Figi. It is his own intellectual property and he has every right to charge for it.

This forum is any thing but thin on useful content. From my experience, judging by all the Private messages I get from people wanting to learn, It is maybe too content rich to be competely understood by a newcomer.

I have only been associated with this forum for a short time, but I have never seen one that stands in compare.

I have certainly done my best to help anyone who has asked me and I am a member of both forums. What I will not do is disclose proprietary and copyrighted material. That should rightfully be paid for. I do not base my ability to help on whether or not someone is a member of the private forum.


Now gosh it sure would be great to get back to talking about the Vegas system...

SMJ


Quoting jerseydevil 20
Absolutely. And I do not fault anybody that does. With over 100 members I'm sure the PF generates a lot of good discussion and synergy.
Originally Posted by Fryes
God, I wish I had a dollar for every time I've had to endure that asinine statement!

Originally Posted by pippie
Regarding the PF, If they are so successful at trading, why do they charge for information.

ETC...
  • #391
  • Apr 11, 2006 4:50pm Apr 11, 2006 4:50pm
Just one more thing.

The instructors spend allot of time helping us in the PF as well as answering questions of FF members not signed up for the PF. Personally I feel better paying them for their time as I don't feel right about asking people to work for free.

IMO they could be spending allot more time trading and making money for themselves but they decided to help us instead.



Thanks for everything you guys do!!!!





Joe



Ok back to the Tunnel.
  • #392
  • Apr 11, 2006 6:30pm Apr 11, 2006 6:30pm
Back to the Vegas system ...

AUDJPY, USDCAD, and EURAUD all look like good candidates.

I'm long USDCAD from 1.1464, and short EURAUD from 1.6682 (too early entry), and 1.6591.

Also shorted AUDUSD at 0.7332
  • #393
  • Apr 11, 2006 6:44pm Apr 11, 2006 6:44pm
EZ,
I'm new to this Forum (which BTW is the most informative I've seen yet) and I'm wondering what your targets for the USD/CAD and AUD/USD are and which method, VWB or other, you used to initiate the trade decision.
  • #394
  • Apr 11, 2006 7:06pm Apr 11, 2006 7:06pm
Quoting ezcurrency
Back to the Vegas system ...

AUDJPY, USDCAD, and EURAUD all look like good candidates.

I'm long USDCAD from 1.1464, and short EURAUD from 1.6682 (too early entry), and 1.6591.

Also shorted AUDUSD at 0.7332
EZ:
I am looking at setup for the USD/CAD and AUD/USD. I was wondering what led u to begin so early. I am using the Vegas Daily method for trend determination and at the moment the trend is Up for AUDUSD and Down for USDCAD. They are approaching the daily outer FIBS but do not look as if they have begun to turn yet.
The 4-hour charts do show them at their outer FIBs but again doesn't seem to be turning yet.
Weekly Trend determination is lagging so I base the final trend determination on a combo of the weekly and daily.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #395
  • Apr 11, 2006 7:39pm Apr 11, 2006 7:39pm
Quoting ezcurrency
Back to the Vegas system ...

AUDJPY, USDCAD, and EURAUD all look like good candidates.

I'm long USDCAD from 1.1464, and short EURAUD from 1.6682 (too early entry), and 1.6591.

Also shorted AUDUSD at 0.7332
Could you please explain the criteria for all of your entries?
  • #396
  • Apr 11, 2006 9:38pm Apr 11, 2006 9:38pm
Quoting nutmg12
Could you please explain the criteria for all of your entries?
Basically, I did looked at the momentum on the 4 hr charts, and saw a divergence. This was confirmed on hourly charts, and on 15 min charts. I think my USDCAD entry is pretty solid ... 1.14 is good support. The EURAUD was a bit early, but I think it will work out.

I don't have any targets ... usually once a trend starts, I use a trailing stop, and add more positions as the trade goes my way, then exit if stopped out on trailing stop, or when I see multiple divergences on multiple timeframes, which would likely confirm a trend change.
  • #397
  • Apr 11, 2006 9:58pm Apr 11, 2006 9:58pm
As you describe it, that sounds really interesting. I quick question, what are you comparing to determine divergence and also to determine momentum...

I have been using Daily DOC 10 for the trend and momentum of the 4 hour, because of the tight range of gbpusd which I have been following.

Thanks SMJ


Quoting ezcurrency
Basically, I did looked at the momentum on the 4 hr charts, and saw a divergence. This was confirmed on hourly charts, and on 15 min charts. I think my USDCAD entry is pretty solid ... 1.14 is good support. The EURAUD was a bit early, but I think it will work out.

I don't have any targets ... usually once a trend starts, I use a trailing stop, and add more positions as the trade goes my way, then exit if stopped out on trailing stop, or when I see multiple divergences on multiple timeframes, which would likely confirm a trend change.
  • #398
  • Apr 12, 2006 4:55pm Apr 12, 2006 4:55pm
Quoting smjones
As you describe it, that sounds really interesting. I quick question, what are you comparing to determine divergence and also to determine momentum...

I have been using Daily DOC 10 for the trend and momentum of the 4 hour, because of the tight range of gbpusd which I have been following.

Thanks SMJ
To determine momentum, I am just using a momentum indicator with a 8 period lookback on the 4 hr chart. For instance, looking at USDCAD, price made a lower low, but MOMENTUM made a higher high just recently. Also, USDCAD is at the -144 fib. This would clue me in for a possible reversal.

At that point, I would look at the 1 hr chart, and look for + divergences using my candlecode indicator (look it up on Google) which also indicates a buy signal. I would also use this indicator on the 15 minute chart to confirm positive divergences, and also to fine-tune entries.

Once the position is moving up, and the 4 hour chart momentum is over 100, I would add to the position on pullbacks. I prefer to add on 1 hr chart buy signals, but may add on 15 min signals. I would also use a trailing stop, and get out when (1) trailing stop is hit, or (2) I see a sell signal opposite of described above for the buy signal.

For the Vegas system, he enters the trade with all 3 units at once, and takes them off at fib levels, etc. I prefer to enter 1 unit with a stop ... if it goes against me, I'm stopped out on just 1 unit. If it goes my way, I would add (once its up 70 to 100 pips or so), and add on pullbacks.

Ideally, it would go like this:
buy 1 position
once up 70 to 100 pips, move stop to break even
add 1 or 2 positions on a pullback (buy signal on 1 hr or 15 min chart)
use a trailing stop
if very aggressive, add 1 or 2 more positons on pullbacks, as price moves up 100 pips
exit on very strong negative divergences on 1 hr chart, or when trailing stop hit.

Hope this helps ...

EZCurrency
  • #399
  • Apr 12, 2006 6:55pm Apr 12, 2006 6:55pm
That sounds like a great idea . I like the scaling approach. It just makes sense when one takes the bits of several methods and combines them with their own approach and makes it their own. An up front and personal method that you understand inside and out. Great idea... I have heard of candlecode, but I am certainly going to do more research on it...

thanks for your clear answer... SMJ


Quoting ezcurrency
To determine momentum, I am just using a momentum indicator with a 8 period lookback on the 4 hr chart. For instance, looking at USDCAD, price made a lower low, but MOMENTUM made a higher high just recently. Also, USDCAD is at the -144 fib. This would clue me in for a possible reversal.

At that point, I would look at the 1 hr chart, and look for + divergences using my candlecode indicator (look it up on Google) which also indicates a buy signal. I would also use this indicator on the 15 minute chart to confirm positive divergences, and also to fine-tune entries.

Once the position is moving up, and the 4 hour chart momentum is over 100, I would add to the position on pullbacks. I prefer to add on 1 hr chart buy signals, but may add on 15 min signals. I would also use a trailing stop, and get out when (1) trailing stop is hit, or (2) I see a sell signal opposite of described above for the buy signal.

For the Vegas system, he enters the trade with all 3 units at once, and takes them off at fib levels, etc. I prefer to enter 1 unit with a stop ... if it goes against me, I'm stopped out on just 1 unit. If it goes my way, I would add (once its up 70 to 100 pips or so), and add on pullbacks.

Ideally, it would go like this:
buy 1 position
once up 70 to 100 pips, move stop to break even
add 1 or 2 positions on a pullback (buy signal on 1 hr or 15 min chart)
use a trailing stop
if very aggressive, add 1 or 2 more positons on pullbacks, as price moves up 100 pips
exit on very strong negative divergences on 1 hr chart, or when trailing stop hit.

Hope this helps ...

EZCurrency
  • #400
  • Apr 13, 2006 6:33am Apr 13, 2006 6:33am
Quoting ezcurrency
Back to the Vegas system ...

AUDJPY, USDCAD, and EURAUD all look like good candidates.

I'm long USDCAD from 1.1464, and short EURAUD from 1.6682 (too early entry), and 1.6591.

Also shorted AUDUSD at 0.7332
Out half of AUDUSD at 0.7270 (+63 pips). Stops to B/E on other half.
I exited early because I am too heavily in AUD imo ... wanted to lighten up a bit. Looks like AUD is starting to fall off against all currencies.

limit order got filled in EURCHF buy at 1.57
Also bought EURGBP at .6923

still holding USDCAD long from 1.1464, and EURAUD from 1.6682, 1.6591, and some AUDJPY from all over (a bit under water on those)
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