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Beyond the Candles

  • #61
  • Oct 13, 2011 4:49pm Oct 13, 2011 4:49pm
Long term analyse.
Monthly-channel
Weekly-at the level and the buyers put pressure in order to get out of the range market
D-at important level and the first level's reaction with today candle that can't close above.
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  • #62
  • Oct 14, 2011 5:22am Oct 14, 2011 5:22am
Hi Fxgroup!
First, thank you for this good thread. I have a question concerning S/R lines. On the attached chart, the big blue lines are monthly and weekly levels. The fine dotted lines are the daily Range Market lines, as you can see. The 1.0228 is a monthly AND weekly line. Price, yesterday, did close above the daily RM line 1.0175, but not above the M and W S/R line. Price today tested the RM line and went up, but only has started crossing the W and M S/R line. Would you have entered long today or would you wait? Because, concerning the daily RM line, the buyers are confirmed. And there is room to go up to the daily RM resistance line 1.0353.
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  • #63
  • Edited 8:52am Oct 14, 2011 8:46am | Edited 8:52am
Hey Milton!

Looking at the chart you posted i believe buying between 1.0353 and 1.0175 is quite risky.

Support and Resistance should be thought of as areas and just look at what happened in that area previously.

August 7th thru 10th price could go no lower no matter how hard it tried (support).

September 12th thru 19th price stalled around that support area and then proceeded to break through. (support into resistance)

Now today, as i write this price looks to be pushing through the area but i wouldn't be surprised to see it retrace back and test the area again. But nothing is definate. We're only dealing with probabilities and buying around this time looks to be a low probability trade from my point of view.

Added: i just took a look at the hourly charts and the price is stalling around a resistance line created by a gap in price.
  • #64
  • Oct 14, 2011 3:44pm Oct 14, 2011 3:44pm
Quoting Good Lookin
Hey Milton!

Looking at the chart you posted i believe buying between 1.0353 and 1.0175 is quite risky.

Support and Resistance should be thought of as areas and just look at what happened in that area previously.

August 7th thru 10th price could go no lower no matter how hard it tried (support).

September 12th thru 19th price stalled around that support area and then proceeded to break through. (support into resistance)

Now today, as i write this price looks to be pushing through the area but i wouldn't be surprised to see it retrace back...
Hi Good Lookin! Thank you for your response. I discovered this thread only yesterday. And as I trade this system (monthly and weekly S/R and entries on daily pinbar and outside bar), but drawing the lines through the highs and lows, I played around with the cross hairs and saw just the accuracy and reliability of the S/R lines on CLOSE and OPEN. Look just to the areas you mentioned and see the precision, with which price bounced and touched the lines! At the first look, for me, the S/R lines through close and open seem really reliable. You said it right: we are only dealing with probabilities and losing is part of the business and friday is sometimes a crazy day. But this method puts our odds a little bit more in our favour, I think. I will give it a try and we will see.
Good trading to you.
  • #65
  • Oct 14, 2011 4:26pm Oct 14, 2011 4:26pm
O.K. Let's talk about levels !

The supports and resistences are those levels where the traders enter in the market, are taking profits, the traders turns back to find more buyers/sellers or close their positions, etc.The Price is attracted/pushed to these livels.

At this stage of the thread, we will use the first criteria to identify the best support/resistence levels that could give us an early advantage in the market: the bar/candle/swing's OPEN/CLOSE.

Here's a chart! Take a look on W and D and tell me what do you see !
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  • #66
  • Oct 14, 2011 7:24pm Oct 14, 2011 7:24pm
Quoting fxgroup
O.K. Let's talk about levels !

Here's a chart! Take a look on W and D and tell me what do you see !

Looking at the Daily I would say we are approaching critical resistance levels. ( pardon my charts , charting package is atrocious )
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  • #67
  • Oct 15, 2011 10:40am Oct 15, 2011 10:40am
Quoting fxgroup
O.K. Let's talk about levels !

The supports and resistences are those levels where the traders enter in the market, are taking profits, the traders turns back to find more buyers/sellers or close their positions, etc.The Price is attracted/pushed to these livels.

At this stage of the thread, we will use the first criteria to identify the best support/resistence levels that could give us an early advantage in the market: the bar/candle/swing's OPEN/CLOSE.

Here's a chart! Take a look on W and D and tell me what do you see !
Along these lines, we see price action, telling us, what buyers and sellers are doing.
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  • #68
  • Oct 16, 2011 8:11am Oct 16, 2011 8:11am
[quote=Milton;5042732]
Quote
And as I trade this system (monthly and weekly S/R and entries on daily pinbar and outside bar), but drawing the lines through the highs and lows, I played around with the cross hairs and saw just the accuracy and reliability of the S/R lines on CLOSE and OPEN. Look just to the areas you mentioned and see the precision, with which price bounced and touched the lines!

hi Milton
For me, the levels drown to O/C are one of the most important tool. Personally, I use 3 type of static levels and 3 of dynamic, but, the O/C of the static levels are by far the most important.

Here it is a trading opportunity that I missed, reading the price upon the S/R levels:
Monthly/M)= range market(RM)
Weekly(W)=range market
Daily(D)=range market at the R level, the sellers pushed the price down and closed bellow the D RM with the 10.10 candle.
10.11-pin bar(PB) the buyers try to defend the level but the sellers are stronger and give us the first sellers confirmation
10.12-DBHLC the second sellers confirmation.
WPD= RM
WPG= to the RM S(support) and confluence.
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  • #69
  • Oct 16, 2011 3:09pm Oct 16, 2011 3:09pm
[quote=decades;5042841]
Quote
Looking at the Daily I would say we are approaching critical resistance levels. ( pardon my charts , charting package is atrocious )
Don't worry for the charts my friend, as long as we are able to see beyond the candles... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif!
We really have the price close to an important level and with a big monthly(M) patterns in charge. It will be interesting to watch what the price does(WPD) at our level, even we have allready an idea...but...we trade facts not ideas!

P.S. One of the best and efficient way to osserve the price is the old, classic way: take a monthly(M) chart, put a level to the most important swings(SW) or range market(RM), make the same thing on weekly(W) chart and then, osserve the price on a daily(D) chart.
I know, it is a very common practice, but it works for me...higher TF levels in smaller TF really work !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #70
  • Oct 16, 2011 3:45pm Oct 16, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting fxgroup
Waiting for " Plan the Trade& Trade the Plan " .
This is what I'm looking for:
Monthly in bearish overall trend,weekly in range market and daily in range market. I will wait the price to close bellow the weekly level what act as supports for the daily range market and to see the sellers confirmation of 1.3678 as resistance.
1.3284+1.2934 are the MM levels (1° and 2° targets for taking profit).
Do you remember this post a week ago ?...take a look today !
This is nothing special, it's just reading the price...the answers to the questions: WPD+ WPG !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #71
  • Oct 17, 2011 8:49am Oct 17, 2011 8:49am
This is a good exemple of how to read a chart and to wait for the confirmation from higher TF. Trading the retracement with the trend is the safiest way to start being profitable.
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  • #72
  • Oct 17, 2011 1:05pm Oct 17, 2011 1:05pm
M-down trend and closes bellow a very important level.
W-double top(DT) and closed bellow the level with dbhlc as sellers confirmation
D-after the sellers succeded to get out of the range market(RM), they give us two confirmations: pin bar(PB)+ beob as confirmation that the sellers are in market's control.
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  • #73
  • Oct 17, 2011 4:34pm Oct 17, 2011 4:34pm
EURCHF becomes tighter and tighter and tighter and accumulates energy...when it will release all this energy...!
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  • #74
  • Oct 18, 2011 5:02am Oct 18, 2011 5:02am
Which right one

1st

or 2nd
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  • #75
  • Oct 18, 2011 6:58am Oct 18, 2011 6:58am
Quoting forja
Which right one

1st

or 2nd
hi forja
It is an honour to me that you start your activity on FF, right here in this thread.
If your question is....witch one of two levels I would consider, I would ask you that the second one seems better.

If you have doubts or questions, just ask !
If you have charts or analysis, just post !

Thanks for your contribution !http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
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  • #76
  • Oct 18, 2011 8:06am Oct 18, 2011 8:06am
Thank you so much for your answer, i still have some question

1. if low's candle A is equal with close candle B or open's candle C (on this case is not) , can i take it as resistance?

2. no any retest on H1 ( lower time frame ), retest on 30 m only, and its first lower high on 30 minute chart, did u'll buy it?

thank you
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  • #77
  • Oct 18, 2011 8:10am Oct 18, 2011 8:10am
If it closes above the trend line...19.16 is the target.
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  • #78
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:59am Oct 18, 2011 11:59am
hey fxgroup, this is an awesome thread! i'm a relative forex newb and i've found this thread extremely interesting and hopefully helps me analyze the charts more successfully in future. Thanks!
  • #79
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:20pm Oct 18, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting forja
Thank you so much for your answer, i still have some question

1. if low's candle A is equal with close candle B or open's candle C (on this case is not) , can i take it as resistance?

2. no any retest on H1 ( lower time frame ), retest on 30 m only, and its first lower high on 30 minute chart, did u'll buy it?

thank you
A level in higher TF remains a strong level in smaller TF .
Let's see an exemple.

Put some charts with levels form higher TF and with the price reaction on smaller TFs and we'll discuss them.
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  • #80
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:36pm Oct 18, 2011 4:36pm
W and M still down trend, but on D price is up...did u'll buy it?

thanks
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