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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #27,761
  • Oct 12, 2011 1:09pm Oct 12, 2011 1:09pm
Quoting -Michael-
Hi Guys !
I have a question about 3 Kingdoms
I Read in posts that some people say that 3 kingdoms in sync but i cant see it in the Charts.
As i imagine to myself to 3 kingdoms to be in sync we have to see Something Like mirror picture of The eurusd and gpbusd against usdjpy
I atach a picture and i dont see the sync of the pairs maybe i didnt understand well what it all about ?
regards
Michael

p.s. I like very much Reading this thread and trying to understand it.
I am very Glad that The owner of this Thread FTI is recovering may the recovery will...
i sugest reading mamood's post he explained it clear to N_trader, above.. i also tried to explain.. today the euro moved big... the 3 major pairs are only in sync when the dollars rule the moves...

regards
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,762
  • Oct 12, 2011 1:18pm Oct 12, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting j-pax
i sugest reading mamood's post he explained it clear to N_trader, above.. i also tried to explain.. today the euro moved big... the 3 major pairs are only in sync when the dollars rule the moves...

regards

Hi J-pax
Thanks for the answer . I understand that synchronization is coroletaed to USD because all of this paris are paired with $ My question was where can you see on the Charts The SYNC part .
Where to look for this SYNC
Thanks
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #27,763
  • Oct 12, 2011 1:29pm Oct 12, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting -Michael-
Hi J-pax
Thanks for the answer . I understand that synchronization is coroletaed to USD because all of this paris are paired with $ My question was where can you see on the Charts The SYNC part .
Where to look for this SYNC
Thanks
Michael
today you see pound and euro agaist the usd in sync.. when the yen joins in .. reversed like you said... all 3 are in sync... lately i don't see it much maybe because the euro is in focus >>> and i gave my second monitor cable to my brother so... last days i traded without paying much atention
i suggest you concentrate on more important things in the lessons here...

succes with your study, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,764
  • Oct 12, 2011 1:29pm Oct 12, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting -Michael-
Hi J-pax
Thanks for the answer . I understand that synchronization is coroletaed to USD because all of this paris are paired with $ My question was where can you see on the Charts The SYNC part .
Where to look for this SYNC
Thanks
Michael
Hi Michael,

give me a few minutes and I compile a chart for you from this morning London session ...
  • #27,765
  • Oct 12, 2011 1:51pm Oct 12, 2011 1:51pm
Here it is ....

The synchronicity was not lasting for the whole move up, but at least for an hour or so. Because the 3kgds have ben in sync, the move was most likely caused by a weakening USD.
After sync, things become more complicated. But there was still good momentum to follow the uptrend till now (or maybe an hour ago ...)

Hope this helps :-)

Niels
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3kgds01.jpg Size: 69 KB
  • #27,766
  • Oct 12, 2011 1:53pm Oct 12, 2011 1:53pm
I have no doubt that some people might be very good with news trading but believe me I learnt the very HARD way that most times it's just an expression of personal sentiments & "hopes" which in no way has any bearing on where the market chooses to go. I eventually realized that neither my funds "hopes" nor personal sentiments were EVER gonna move the market in the direction I wanted and the best I could hope for was to tag along on the coat tails of those with the muscle to move the market; ..."banks, big funds, and institutions that have deep pockets which are fillled with a lot of cha-chings."
I started watching the charts "closely" and realised that they never lie once you find the means to "read" them. Yesterday was a case of classic misdirection which we all fall for sometimes.
Quoting bumapatria
True, but think of it this way most of the liquidity in spot FX is provided by banks, big funds, and institutions that have deep pockets which are fillled with a lot of cha-chings. This was defnitely unprecedented, as most my thread are looking for shorts instead of listening to what was happening. I was talkng mostly about why it moved that much really, i mean of course not everyone longs on rumours, i shorted red lion shorted, chicky shorted... hahah, ironic.. Well, you were the only subscriber to my thread that went long and got a bagful...
  • #27,767
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:05pm Oct 12, 2011 2:05pm
hmm seems fti popped in. Nice to see that he's recovering. I noticed an earlier post about options, yea not so good in retail. Too bad, they have very useful hedge properties and payoffs.

Lol dry conversations. Eventually it seems like small talk, I noticed a few fixed income traders discussing volatility plays earlier this week. They all seemed bored. Speaking of which, old news: Kewku Adoboli (sp?)...snagged 2.3bil from UBS Rogue trader on the delta 1 desk. Snowballed position from 5mil to 2.3bil, talk about bad mindset.

Btw, anyone do fixed income here? I've been assigned to develop a trade idea, I'm thinking of doing a convergence trade on several bond spreads...either that or the on/off the bond...but I don't want to end up like LTCM. Time frame is 6months, otherwise investors get antsy. Ideas?
  • #27,768
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:10pm Oct 12, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting MaMood
Here it is ....

The synchronicity was not lasting for the whole move up, but at least for an hour or so. Because the 3kgds have ben in sync, the move was most likely caused by a weakening USD.
After sync, things become more complicated. But there was still good momentum to follow the uptrend till now (or maybe an hour ago ...)

Hope this helps :-)

Niels
nice charts, and a good example why we should be carefull with the 3 kingdoms... when the yen snapped back i gambled the eur-usd would snapback also ... this was wrong... i suggest the 3 K. are for confirmation and not timing trades?!?!

on the other hand initial move made me cut my shorts so it was good this sync scared me...

thanks for the charts
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,769
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:18pm Oct 12, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting MaMood
Here it is ....

The synchronicity was not lasting for the whole move up, but at least for an hour or so. Because the 3kgds have ben in sync, the move was most likely caused by a weakening USD.
After sync, things become more complicated. But there was still good momentum to follow the uptrend till now (or maybe an hour ago ...)

Hope this helps :-)

Niels
Thanks MaMood
Now i understand what you meant
regard
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #27,770
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:21pm Oct 12, 2011 2:21pm
Quoting hicomm
I have no doubt that some people might be very good with news trading but believe me I learnt the very HARD way that most times it's just an expression of personal sentiments & "hopes" which in no way has any bearing on where the market chooses to go. I eventually realized that neither my funds "hopes" nor personal sentiments were EVER gonna move the market in the direction I wanted and the best I could hope for was to tag along on the coat tails of those with the muscle to move the market; ..."banks, big funds, and institutions that have deep...

Hi again,
I guess everyone has to find it's own way of handling news.
But it can't be wrong to know how the dealers and MM's are playing the game.

The following link gives you a short description. It is from a book I like very much: "Beat the Forex dealer" by Agustin Silvani.

Have fun ...

.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Beat-the-Forex-Dealer_Excerpt.pdf   410 KB | 1,510 downloads
  • #27,771
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:25pm Oct 12, 2011 2:25pm
Quoting fullperson
hmm seems fti popped in. Nice to see that he's recovering. I noticed an earlier post about options, yea not so good in retail. Too bad, they have very useful hedge properties and payoffs.

Lol dry conversations. Eventually it seems like small talk, I noticed a few fixed income traders discussing volatility plays earlier this week. They all seemed bored. Speaking of which, old news: Kewku Adoboli (sp?)...snagged 2.3bil from UBS Rogue trader on the delta 1 desk. Snowballed position from 5mil to 2.3bil, talk about bad mindset.

Btw, anyone do fixed...
hi fullperson,

no ideas from me... i am short 10Ynote sice may just a little retail bucketshop gamble ... anti US sentiment

great to see you are a financial proffesional now

regards pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,772
  • Edited 2:52pm Oct 12, 2011 2:39pm | Edited 2:52pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,
I guess everyone has to find it's own way of handling news.
But it can't be wrong to know how the dealers and MM's are playing the game.

The following link gives you a short description. It is from a book I like very much: "Beat the Forex dealer" by Agustin Silvani.

Have fun ...

.
i remember (?) Fti wrote somewhere that after news you can pick on the corpses... i guess only when illiquidity takes out stops against the trend..sounds dangerous and i don't trade news!... darkstar has made an interesting thread on this site wich is also about newstrading and illiquidity.... . the predicting part of his ideas are not so safe i think.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=7484

thanks for the pdf. i'll check it out
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,773
  • Oct 12, 2011 3:48pm Oct 12, 2011 3:48pm
Hello MaMood,

very nice to see you ...
you have good science and nature ...

RGS
gart
  • #27,774
  • Oct 13, 2011 12:36am Oct 13, 2011 12:36am
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...149308/1/.html
  • #27,775
  • Oct 13, 2011 12:55am Oct 13, 2011 12:55am
I do agree everyone's gotta find his way of handling news, As for me, I don't even look @ it. In the end, there really ain't no wrong or right way to trade as all that matters is what works for you. Cheers Man & thanks for the pdf.
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,
I guess everyone has to find it's own way of handling news.
But it can't be wrong to know how the dealers and MM's are playing the game.

The following link gives you a short description. It is from a book I like very much: "Beat the Forex dealer" by Agustin Silvani.

Have fun ...

.
  • #27,776
  • Oct 13, 2011 12:58am Oct 13, 2011 12:58am
Hi,

A message to all my friends.

I am very Sorry that i cannot continue here anymore. My heart is behaving horribily and in many ways makes me very short fused.
The body is already very burdening and coupled with rigid people who have myopic bias minds only, see only what they want to see, then say that its supposed to be like that, because i trained them so, seems gets on my nerves much. Moreover they not even take the trouble read the work given carefully to examine it in their minds and experience. Truely i only get feel their so much ego.

What happened yesterday really pushed me to the edge.
An experience dealer like jac ,who sees so much of real market activity, came a guiding rusty me back to market feel. We had a nice run on the markets selling euros. But even then there were speculative peeps (who have no real market information at all), chip in with their guessing and opinions. Even then Jac and me was already so cautious, having detected that panda was around the markets. This really brought me think really some people had become so entrenched in themselves that they cannot see that which is beyond. Although , our access to the world is thru our faculties, its so selffish minds that think everything in the world is within their grasp. And behaving like robots.

Even when with bias mindset in tokyo time going into FFt zone i detected solid buying in the cable , prompting me rethink the short stance, even telling so on the thread, and yet there are the so rigids, that unless they was zapped by lightling they cannot even feel the change in market aura, feel and rhythm. And this same wants be successful trading. Even said i taught them so.

I am not taking all this very well, because my health creates some shortcoming of which i cannot mediate.
Therefore i feel is best i take leave from these activities.
So I hope that my friends can understand my situation.
I beg your indulgence to journey by yourselfs.
And i hope thread stays true to that which had been given.

I am very happy to had been your friend.

God Bless.
Kind Regards.
  • #27,777
  • Edited 1:23am Oct 13, 2011 1:05am | Edited 1:23am
Quoting fti
why are you short?

@Atomic_Sheep
why are you short too?

you people don't read?
at what time did i tell you , detected solid bottom? #27724

I give up.
I was short because I was catching up on posts . I went heavily long after I couldn't bear going against my gut any longer and ended up making a killing .

Quoting fti
Hi,

A message to all my friends.

I am very Sorry that i cannot continue here anymore. My heart is behaving horribily and in many ways makes me very short fused.
The body is already very burdening and coupled with rigid people who have myopic bias minds only, see only what they want to see, then say that its supposed to be like that, because i trained them so, seems gets on my nerves much. Moreover they not even take the trouble read the work given carefully to examine it in their minds and experience. Truely i only get feel their so much ego.

What happened yesterday really pushed me to the edge.
An experience dealer like jac ,who sees so much of real market activity, came a guiding rusty me back to market feel. We had a nice run on the markets selling euros. But even then there were speculative peeps (who have no real market information at all), chip in with their guessing and opinions. Even then Jac and me was already so cautious, having detected that panda was around the markets. This really brought me think really some people had become so entrenched in themselves that they cannot see that which is beyond. Although , our access to the world is thru our faculties, its so selffish minds that think everything in the world is within their grasp. And behaving like robots.

Even when with bias mindset in tokyo time going into FFt zone i detected solid buying in the cable , prompting me rethink the short stance, even telling so on the thread, and yet there are the so rigids, that unless they was zapped by lightling they cannot even feel the change in market aura, feel and rhythm. And this same wants be successful trading. Even said i taught them so.

I am not taking all this very well, because my health creates some shortcoming of which i cannot mediate.
Therefore i feel is best i take leave from these activities.
So I hope that my friends can understand my situation.
I beg your indulgence to journey by yourselfs.
And i hope thread stays true to that which had been given.

I am very happy to had been your friend.

God Bless.
Kind Regards.
Thanks fti for all your help and support and hopefully we haven't stressed you out too much. I totally understand where you're coming from and I have been wondering how long you were going to put up with people like us. Yes we want to be traders (well I think at the moment, most of us want easy money which we need to get past first)but it doesn't matter what you do in life, the ingredients for success are the same everywhere which I'm sure you're aware of. The problem with most people who can't get a job as dealers is that we just haven't developed to the level that would allow us to fill those shoes in top tier companies. As you say, our stubbornness and miopic outlook on life is stifling us and I'm sure most of us are aware of this fact but none the less it takes us a lot longer to learn these basic things that people who actually move this world forward through innovation and proactive and constructive work. Each one of us has our demons and our success and development depends heavily on our abilities or inabilities to conquer them... I suppose those demons are the very same scorpions that you refered to in your story.

But yer, I fully understand where you are coming from and personally I hate people who take a long time to learn something and I get frustrated repeating myself pretty much after the very first time that I might try to explain something and the fact that you lasted 1900 pages of doing that very thing just boggles my mind. For this I think every person in this thread is very grateful.

Suffice to say... your teachings weren't useful because of your background or because of what they had to say although that was a major part of the story, the main reason why this thread which you started was so popular was because it gave people confidence and the belief that becoming a professional trader was possible. That is the most important thing that you can instill in a person.

As for the rest of it... as the saying goes... a teacher is ready to teach... when a student is ready to learn... so the only thing that is left now is for us non traders to really decide whether all this is really for us or not. Within this decision comes the conquering of all those demons and the removal of our myopic ways. A mother bird pushes its chicks out of the nest to get them to fly because until she does, the chicks will never leave the nest. The more you spoon feed people... the less they rely on the grey matter which you have been kindly trying to fill and they more they rely on other people.

I'm certain that the information within this thread is more than enough to get anyone on this entire planet to get the start they need to really start learning this business and for this we are all eternally greatful. The selflessness that you exhibited by devoting so much time and energy to share all your knowledge with is priceless. The rest is up to us.

Thank you .
  • #27,778
  • Oct 13, 2011 1:05am Oct 13, 2011 1:05am
Quoting fti
Hi,

A message to all my friends.

I am very Sorry that i cannot continue here anymore. My heart is behaving horribily and in many ways makes me very short fused.
The body is already very burdening and coupled with rigid people who have myopic bias minds only, see only what they want to see, then say that its supposed to be like that, because i trained them so, seems gets on my nerves much. Moreover they not even take the trouble read the work given carefully to examine it in their minds and experience. Truely i only get feel their so much...
Dear Fti. Thank you for everything. Health is priority. But if you will feel OK(as i know you will), please sometimes visit your naughty students for some few words... somethimes ... Best regards and God bless you Fti. Take care abt yourself please.
  • #27,779
  • Oct 13, 2011 1:11am Oct 13, 2011 1:11am
Quoting Fana
Dear Fti. Thank you for everything. Health is priority. But if you will feel OK(as i know you will), please sometimes visit your naughty students for some few words... somethimes ... Best regards and God bless you Fti. Take care abt yourself please.
That is my take too
  • #27,780
  • Oct 13, 2011 1:14am Oct 13, 2011 1:14am
Quoting fti
Hi,

A message to all my friends.

I am very Sorry that i cannot continue here anymore. My heart is behaving horribily and in many ways makes me very short fused.
The body is already very burdening and coupled with rigid people who have myopic bias minds only, see only what they want to see, then say that its supposed to be like that, because i trained them so, seems gets on my nerves much. Moreover they not even take the trouble read the work given carefully to examine it in their minds and experience. Truely i only get feel their so much...
take care of your health chief...

stop by once in a while...

V
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