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14 Year Old Forex Trader's Lessons

  • #2,321
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:18pm Oct 12, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting PipTrapper
In closing, I have not very often seen a retrace on a daily chart that has moved so far, so quickly without at least pulling back to a previous fib level. This week's move needs to consolidate. When I get a signal that the time has come, I will post it. Until then or until I am convinced that we are in a longer term bull market, I am flat.
.
Loved to read you analysis twice

Pbh
  • #2,322
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:43pm Oct 12, 2011 2:43pm
Copy from EurAnalysis thread:

What's on my mind? EST

Today:

8:30 pm EST

AU employment change 10.1K e, -9.7K p
AU unemployment rate 5.3% e, 5.3% p

Friday:

8:30 am EST

US retail sales 0.5% e, 0.0% p
US core retail sales 0.2% e, 0.1% p

Good economic data expectations ... Fake hope is about to start playing harder . As we all can see, today we have AU employment changes with good expectations: Employment chante: +20K and Unemployment rate: Unchanged.

Therefore, I expect to continue to see risk appetite in the meanwhile. As long as the Euro is concerned, I already gave my opinon a few posts earlier.

I would probably wait for a technical indicator buy signal before jumping in the market (Asian session open, or during it).

Here's a chart

Pbh

*e: expected
*p: prior
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  • #2,323
  • Oct 12, 2011 5:59pm Oct 12, 2011 5:59pm
Exactly what I was expecting

Nice pullback, nice rejection... let's see if we can make nice pips too

Pbh
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  • #2,324
  • Oct 12, 2011 6:13pm Oct 12, 2011 6:13pm
good morning
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,325
  • Oct 12, 2011 6:14pm Oct 12, 2011 6:14pm
good afternoon
  • #2,326
  • Oct 12, 2011 6:16pm Oct 12, 2011 6:16pm
Quoting the redlion
hi friends, just woke up, i was reviewing my performance over the past week and i have to accept that it has been disappointing, the book is safe and still shows over monthly target, however......

from 10/04- till present we have jumped 800+ pips and i have not caught much of that move

the only one at fault here is myself, so some soul searching and internal analysis is in order.

i feel i might be jumping the gun on some trades, or not pay attention to the market. i have bee bearish on this move.

bears make money
bulls make...
Red

You and I, we got caught by that early Asian sell off ( I remember the posts)
I think that we set our minds that we needed to find a way how to get short. That concept had made it difficult for us to see the obvious, I think.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #2,327
  • Oct 12, 2011 6:17pm Oct 12, 2011 6:17pm
Good everything

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #2,328
  • Oct 12, 2011 6:26pm Oct 12, 2011 6:26pm
sure red, i will give you the space to do so.
hell i was confused to myself. despite this being a demo account my balance is dropped from 1550-1300 and bouncing on that level. Now, it is still 'safe' but is destructive in live account, this is why i say a directional bias is destructive for all of us. Its unhealthy persistence that "its going to move your direction". Most of us got caught in that trap real nice. Piptrapper's big swing trades were caught, i was caught, Redlion, highlander.. the list goes on.

I need to rethink this out too, but will continue to share with everyone
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,329
  • Oct 12, 2011 6:35pm Oct 12, 2011 6:35pm
All the majors moved significantly in just a few hours. Usually when that happens, there is a pullback. What do you think the odds are of them retracing back to the 50% levels?
  • #2,330
  • Oct 12, 2011 6:49pm Oct 12, 2011 6:49pm
Quoting mla
Good everything

mla
Mla, through all of this, i think you have made the most. I feel my method is flawed like all others, but i think its in the mentality.. what do you think kept you on a win streak?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,331
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:22pm Oct 12, 2011 7:22pm
you know what Buma, i was thinking this through.

you are my friend, and i committed myself to help you trade, so......
i will not ask for space, i think it is beneficial not only for you but for everyone including me, to learn to re group re approach the market, and maybe there are somethings i did not see.

perhaps as a group we can assist eachother.

so far i have identified, EGO, as my main problem.

you see when i was assessing the market and posting i immediately turned it into i must be right and did not make a proper assessment.

another thing, i will re visit my stance on no stops, especially when not around to baby sit my trade due to my job.

i will do proper analysis of the market and it will be posted here


BACK TO BASICS, the lion will roar again
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #2,332
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:30pm Oct 12, 2011 7:30pm
what i did wrong

FAILED TO ADAPT

but why?
i did not see it coming do to ego and imposing STRONG opinions on the market,
my no stop stance is incredibly effective when close to market but when blinded it ran 200 plus pips from intial the grounded it 100 pips plus, at which point i strategically recovered the book

yesterday i sent a scout on foolish anticipation, then missed hundreds of pips,

i IGNORED ALL BULLISH SIGNS i was looking for the BEAR

what i must do

WATCH THE QUOTES AND THE PRICE but not just see and ignore and proceed on my predetermined plan.

i need to OBSERVE AND LISTEN.

THE most important thing to do now?

FORGET ABOUT IT, I AM HUMAN AND SHIT HAPPENS
now on to the next trade.

i gotta see a pt now so no open trades if open i will apply stop
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #2,333
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:34pm Oct 12, 2011 7:34pm
Quoting the redlion
you know what Buma, i was thinking this through.

you are my friend, and i committed myself to help you trade, so......
i will not ask for space, i think it is beneficial not only for you but for everyone including me, to learn to re group re approach the market, and maybe there are somethings i did not see.

perhaps as a group we can assist eachother.

so far i have identified, EGO, as my main problem.

you see when i was assessing the market and posting i immediately turned it into i must be right and did not make a proper assessment.

another...

Well, Red i still feel that bias is just destructive. No matter what anyone says, the market dont give a damn for what you think, its there, now go trade it thats the way i see it. Having a bearish mindset puts us in a great disadvantage as forex traders. We were given the ability to buy and sell, unlike stocks with so much hassle about short selling, buying outside of hours etc. We lost an opportunity to gain at least 300-400 pips minimum for me and you red. I for one reason still think that time is a major variable in equity markets, CFD,s and the forex, and in technical terms, this was possible. I will show you guys my usual expansion analysis:

As you can see i just put the swing high and swing low at the first bearish swing on the triple top. Expansion 361.8% hit, price shot up. The true problem here to me is BIAS, and it limits our flexibility to look at opportunities of both sides.

its ego definitely for me too, as red has said. I have been on a killer win streak since 300 to 1500s then now is hanging on 1300s up and down.

i am probably still biased now, but am short. i see the bullish 361.8% was rejected, but possible triple top once more, gann resistance held, price was key resistance before, i still am quite dumbfounded by all this, i was killed by myself, when my method in good use can really make some great pips in this market.

I have backtested and forward tested my trading style and method as a whole, and has proven me well. The fibonacci numbers have a play in the market, in natural or uncertain terms, but they cannot be used on their own. thats why i use gann, sometimes elliot wave, and supply demand etc. But yet i still didnt think it was enough.

the killer variable in our trading is that we dont know WHEN. hell right we know WHERE a possible setup can be, but time in its own is not easy to predict, and many who knew about such a method were very secretive of it.

I am going to try something out, perhaps i will reveal something i dont know.

I feel all of us in here have already great technical and fundamental analysis, its that one killer variable of TIME.

ill try spot something here. and post.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,334
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:38pm Oct 12, 2011 7:38pm
Let me tell you how i started as a trader,

I use to buy at highs, and know price went against me.

I use to sell at lows, and see price going the other way.

I used to buy and sell seeing red/green candles and see it was a spike.

I used to set stops based on how much i want to risk, and not the market's preset values.

I used to lose.


I think im way past that, but now is a whole new step ive got much to learn, many ebooks downloaded to read, and i will solve this mystery once and for all.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,335
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:41pm Oct 12, 2011 7:41pm
Perhaps
i was looking at what I WANT the market to do, which of course market doesnt care about.

maybe i was seeing the small timeframes, and forgot to see the bigger picture...

theres a lot to see here..
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,336
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:45pm Oct 12, 2011 7:45pm
despite yesterday's wins on gold and silver, i think i was still directional and only looking at the small picture. when you see the daily or 4 hourly timeframes, we can see that its not a bear day.

trying something here, long on silver.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,337
  • Edited 7:58pm Oct 12, 2011 7:46pm | Edited 7:58pm
Quoting bumapatria
Mla, through all of this, i think you have made the most. I feel my method is flawed like all others, but i think its in the mentality.. what do you think kept you on a win streak?
I do not think that all the others are not doing all right.

I feel that Goldman and Redlion are doing ok.

1) Trade ONLY eurusd on the 5m tf or less. (Bigger then that is not trading)
2) Make sure your broker has a very tight spread.
3) Only learn a few patterns and master them.
4) Do not listen to others, every thing is in the candles. Once the news is out it will be to late.
5) Do not trade on demo, you can open an account with only $25. (And that what you should do)
6) At the beginning risk no more than 0.5% of you capital per trade. When you loose 2 trade in a row, you go down to 0.4 and so on. If you have 3 losing trades in a row, turn every thing off for the day.
7) You use to many threads for chatting, that is not good, when you trade you cannot chat, your thread will be enough, you also need to limit that, you can chat when you not focusing on the trade.
8) Be humble.
9) Be aware of you ego, normally people with big personality like yours have a big ego. He is going to make it difficult for you anytime he has a chance
10) Do not spend so much time trading, 4 or 5 hour is enough, from London opening.
11) Get a girlfriend and play with that as well, your trading will improve.
12) Read my story again (the one with beautiful ankles).

This is what I think

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #2,338
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:49pm Oct 12, 2011 7:49pm
Quoting mla
I do not think that all the others are not doing all right.

I feel that Goldman and Redlion are doing ok.

1) Trade eurusd on the 5m tf or less. (Bigger then that is not trading)
2) Make sure your broker has ver tight spread.
3) Only learn a few patterns and master them.
4) Do not listen to others, every thing is in the candles. Once the news is out it will be to late.
5) Do not trade on demo, you can open an account with only $25. (And that what you should do)
6) At the beginning risk no more than 0.5% of you capital per trade. When you loose...
Mla, capitally speaking we are all alright. I dont think anyone's equity is hit big, but we are in a streak of losses bigger than wins now, and that in itself is a sign to re-think. I'll think this out mla, thanks. why would i even think of live now if i cant do this on demo at least perfectly yet? next month then. i am depositing $1000, with micro lots of 0.01 trading. a 100 pip loss is only 10% hit to equity which is roughly 10 bucks. rescues will be performed with a wince larger lot, but will not perform as often.

No one asked for it to be easy, i am ready for this. i asked for this.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,339
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:59pm Oct 12, 2011 7:59pm
bumapatria,

just realized you're indo..
i'm malay..
  • #2,340
  • Oct 12, 2011 8:08pm Oct 12, 2011 8:08pm
Quoting bumapatria
i am depositing $1000, with micro lots of 0.01 trading. a 100 pip loss is only 10% hit to equity which is roughly 10 bucks.
incorrect. You might want to look around for an excel lot size calc to help you out.
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