14 Year Old Forex Trader's Lessons

nice goldman.


I just finished my geometry exam got 92%.

wanted a 95 but anything above 90 would do..

Silver beautiful hit on demand.

Nice, I was the lazy b@stard in school, if it was not interesting for me, i just did not learn, often cheated
For example when I had test in physics, I did not care, I learned trading when I should have been learning physics. But i made right choices I must say.

talk about trading. i get good results here and there but overall lazy in activities i dont enjoy that much lol.

Good night for me, im swithching off,

bye goldman!

Bye

i cannot sleep. I will use this time to do a geography exam, been behind in exams...

but when i take them i have so far recieved 90% and above, almost with little to no studying..

anyways. .markets slow so no trading for now.

who am i kidding lol

i have a gold short.

yes, i dont invest gold, i trade it everyday

caught by trailing stop.
now a doji.

not bad

todays: x trades

all 0.01 lots sizes

Hi Goldman,

was your reason for this trade based on price coming back to the level of this small area of consolidation?

Hey, this was demand zone that was formed by 5 minute candles. It was respected by price and that's why I bought.

ok thanks, good trade!

If you want to know I am currently trying to get the hang of intra day charts 5-15 min.

Spent the last 2 years almost exclusively on dailies and 4hrs, but making money on them is a slow progress, sometimes going weeks with no trades as I'm pretty fussy.

Trying to add intra-day trading to my arsenal.

h2

supply demand 101 basics at work here. rejections perfect.

till then guys... i did half the geography exam.. still too tired.

gonna sleep for real now...

I wish you the best, if you have more questions in the future, feel free to ask

Trichet: July 21 deal and commitments made by Greece should mean it can avoid default
From forexlive.com
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/news_quote.gif We cannot step in for govts any more than we can for the private sector Euro area is being affected by a crisis that is clearly global in scale Govts must boost EFSF with leverage if needed Trichet’s comments (well at least the headline and the EFSF leverage one) giving the single currency a further little lift and we’re at session high 1.3679. Barrier option interest at 1.3700 looms.

Just after I went to sleep

oh NOW u tell us...

love it when a plan comes together,covering trade as i type. Haven't been on for a while (busy bee)

Timezone fault

hi friends, just woke up, i was reviewing my performance over the past week and i have to accept that it has been disappointing, the book is safe and still shows over monthly target, however......

from 10/04- till present we have jumped 800+ pips and i have not caught much of that move

the only one at fault here is myself, so some soul searching and internal analysis is in order.

i feel i might be jumping the gun on some trades, or not pay attention to the market. i have bee bearish on this move.

bears make money
bulls make money
pigs get slaughtered

i have been a bear.

no adaptability, i have been rigid, there are many questions on why this might be, but for now i will not be distracted for while, this business of rescuing my trades as often as i have done is a red flag,

Buman please do not take offence is i do not answer my skype or post here for a while, i need this analysis, before it turns into losses

hey redlion,

I have also been victim to being too bearish rather than neutral like i normally am.

monday was my worst trading day ever from a £ perspective at least, down about 6%.

made a couple of mistakes that need to be nipped in the bud. i bet too much on the bearish situation continuing and i payed for it.

currently trying to regroup and move on.

Hi all,

After a few hours of scratching my head, squinting my eyes, pulling my hair, shifting in my chair, flipping pages in my notes, making some calculations, intensely watching all asset classes and analyzing every time frame on my charts, I finally have a plan to make a plan.

The Euro has made a huge comeback from the lows of last Monday at 1.3144
All asset classes priced in US Dollars have followed along.
The USD Index plummeted as a result
Definitely Risk-On, but what triggered it?

Now that I have had enough time to analyze everything, here is how I believe this has all unfolded...

First the premise:

The US economy is not looking so great and the FED has pretty well done all it can in the public eye without causing an absolute revolt. QE3 would not be a great idea for many reasons, one of which is that they cannot be seen as purposely debasing the USD. The US government is pretty much a lame duck. Obama's jobs bill almost made it through but but the fact is it was defeated and more importantly, everybody new it would be. So the USA has a dilemma on their hands. The problem is not so much an economically prohibitive one. No, it is a confidence one. Consumers didn't spend because they didn't have any confidence in the economy and their job status. Corporations didn't hire because they didn't have confidence in the consumer markets. Savers didn't invest because they didn't have confidence in the markets, etc etc. Catch 22, right. Okay stay with me on this

Now come Europe. Greece is broke and will go bankrupt. The other periphery EZ countries with massive debt are next, especially if the economy keeps slowing down. The banks are not in good enough shape to absorb the losses they will incur when (not if) Greece defaults. Consumer, corporate and investor confidence is just as bad in the Euro Zone now because of all this. Fear grips everybody. Okay keep following.

All this risk-off sentiment has a huge impact on Japan because they are an export economy (much like China) and since investors see the JPY as a safe haven currency (just like they saw the Swiss Franc before the SNB put a floor on the exchange rate) The Yen was appreciating in value to the point where it was hurting Japan's exports with much lower margins. Still following? Good

So, the economy needs a magic pill to shake everyone out of their risk averse zombie like state. How does one accomplish that? The Fed couldn't do it with all their QE's and rate cuts. The BOJ tried to intervene in their currency woes but failed to make any significant impact. The Swiss managed to mitigate their woes by putting a floor of 1.20 CH to the Euro and they defended it well, but still their economy started to suffer as a result. Mer-k-ozy tried to instill confidence by saying that they had a plan to make a plan and they would get back to us. What??? The EFSF expansion failed to get Slovakia's easy vote after over 2 months. The ECB in coordination with the FED and the BOJ, through currency swaps, pledged to provide unlimited liquidity to all the Euro Zone banks in order to keep them afloat so that they can handle sovereign debt defaults, but even that was a bit of a long shot, I figured how could that protect banks from insolvency? It cannot. It can only put them (or the taxpayers) in a worse situation and it really does nothing to fix the underlying problems. Actually it creates a whole new set of problems; more debt.

So how were they gong to instill confidence in consumers, corporations and the financial markets?

Today, the ECB, the FED and the BOJ, in coordinated action, dumped USDs and JPYs and bought up EURs while Trichet was on TV talking up the Euro Zone saying all will be rectified, Greece will not default and the banks will survive, while the BOJ was saying that they are going to put a floor on the JPY.

Trichet is a very well respected central banker and the market listens to him. He has never before showed the confidence he showed today and was always critical of governments constantly sending them signals that they are not behaving themselves and the responsibility falls on them to adhere to sound fiscal policy. Did they? No. Did Greece meet fiscal target? Not even close. Did the EU leaders come up with a plan? Not really, they only came up with a plan to make a plan (he he he, I still laugh about that one). So what changed? Perception.

The USD depreciated in value causing all asset classes priced in USDs to instantly and artificially rise in value. Look at all the asset classes. I would estimate that a good portion of the gains are not from market activity but rather from the depreciation of the USD as it was used to buy Euros to provide liquidity for the Euro Zone banks. Look at all the major Yen crosses as well, Instant depreciation of the Yen also due to swaps using Yen to buy Euros plus compounded by a rush of safe haven seekers to pull their cash out of Yen to other assets (like the EUR or the GBP) out of fear that the BOJ was going to intervene on the Yen exchange rate.

So now the picture looks better because it was painted over by nice bright lights, the Euro is up, the equities are up, investors are becoming confident again and who knows? Consumers might start spending, companies might start hiring, investors will buy more equities (You know, the ones who buy the highs and sell the low. Lots of those out there), and the world will be a happy place again and all will be great. Hey they might be able to pull it off. You never know. All it takes in one month of good economic data and a few job creations and everyone could become confident again. Kick the can down the road type stuff just like we did last year before Greece was bailed out the first time. Everyone happy now?

Not so fast. Nothing is solved. The sovereign debt still exists and will keep growing. Greece will still default. Obama still has no jobs bill. The housing sector in the US is still in shambles... and a whole load of other stuff I am sure I don't have to list, nor do I want to because I want to stop typing soon anyway

In a nutshell we are still screwed and soon the bubble is going to burst. Once the markets properly digest what just happened, the house of cards will come tumbling down.

I am still very bearish on the Euro. I just have to pick my battlefield and I believe it will be here sooner than we think.

So, here is my chart for now. Price is at the 50% fib as indicated on the chart. Yes it fell quickly but it came up just as quickly. Will it reverse to the downside again now? Probably not, but I am not ruling it out. I need to watch my charts, plan it all out and follow price action. I have no plan right now but once I take a position, I will announce it immediately.

In closing, I have not very often seen a retrace on a daily chart that has moved so far, so quickly without at least pulling back to a previous fib level. This week's move needs to consolidate. When I get a signal that the time has come, I will post it. Until then or until I am convinced that we are in a longer term bull market, I am flat.

Cheers
PT



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