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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #27,741
  • Oct 12, 2011 5:15am Oct 12, 2011 5:15am
Quoting j-pax
i looked at the daily chart and went short.. you told me a long time ago higher high higher low makes a trend so i see for the last week trend is up also on the daily chart. i can admit my crystalball thinking is shorts should be squeezed and stopped out now?.... wrong! ... i was not short because of something you wrote.

don't let guys like me disturbe you please > regards pax
Hi Jacco. There is also one very important message from Fti. Maybe it is the most important think. He never told it imo, but as i can consider... He is trying to show us, that we have to think and do INDFEPENDENTLY. If not, please elders correct me. Thank you
  • #27,742
  • Oct 12, 2011 5:27am Oct 12, 2011 5:27am
Uh oh... I went short too.. Now scout n a few troops in deep waters. Gg to b tough.. Not sure a rescue is still possible. On coming train.. Lol
  • #27,743
  • Oct 12, 2011 6:27am Oct 12, 2011 6:27am
Quoting fti
MOF & BOJ told you they defemnding with extra 10 nbillion usd and you think they joking?

OMG, i am going rest.
I enjoyed my feast chief with UJ...was heavy long from 76.40 area just closed around 77.20 area....

i just understood/flowed one trade UJ today and gave me all the losses and some profit back...


V
  • #27,744
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:15am Oct 12, 2011 7:15am
Hi thread,

i asked redlion to brief me on true rescues, and scouts etc. And its amazing the whole concept to me

I just rescued a coupla wrong-timed trades,

and another fallacy in TA, is that covert plan on dollar and euro loan.
it was human psychology there, people long on rumors, possibly insider trading.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #27,745
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:44am Oct 12, 2011 7:44am
Quoting bumapatria
Hi thread,

i asked redlion to brief me on true rescues, and scouts etc. And its amazing the whole concept to me

I just rescued a coupla wrong-timed trades,

and another fallacy in TA, is that covert plan on dollar and euro loan.
it was human psychology there, people long on rumors, possibly insider trading.
Buma ma gud friend, not everyone was long on rumours you know? Some people don't even listen to the news.
  • #27,746
  • Oct 12, 2011 8:10am Oct 12, 2011 8:10am
Quoting Fana
Hi Jacco. There is also one very important message from Fti. Maybe it is the most important think. He never told it imo, but as i can consider... He is trying to show us, that we have to think and do INDFEPENDENTLY. If not, please elders correct me. Thank you
hey Fana,

great to see you are doing well, i think indepently and short whenever i want to... i want to make clear to Fti that i don't pick a direction because he was doing this earlier... i understand he feels responsibility for us ... that how kind he is. many would laugh when we go wrong.

also i was smart/lucky?? enough to cover my shorts below 1.37 before this big upmove. tried a silly snapback scout but closed it with 10 pips loss.

kind greets mate,
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,747
  • Oct 12, 2011 8:30am Oct 12, 2011 8:30am
Quoting hicomm
Buma ma gud friend, not everyone was long on rumours you know? Some people don't even listen to the news.
True, but think of it this way most of the liquidity in spot FX is provided by banks, big funds, and institutions that have deep pockets which are fillled with a lot of cha-chings. This was defnitely unprecedented, as most my thread are looking for shorts instead of listening to what was happening. I was talkng mostly about why it moved that much really, i mean of course not everyone longs on rumours, i shorted red lion shorted, chicky shorted... hahah, ironic.. Well, you were the only subscriber to my thread that went long and got a bagful of pips while we were trying to figure out what was going on.

definitely was an unprecedented force on the volatility of the market.

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #27,748
  • Oct 12, 2011 8:42am Oct 12, 2011 8:42am
Quoting j-pax
hey Fana,

great to see you are doing well, i think indepently and short whenever i want to... i want to make clear to Fti that i don't pick a direction because he was doing this earlier... i understand he feels responsibility for us ... that how kind he is. many would laugh when we go wrong.

also i was smart/lucky?? enough to cover my shorts below 1.37 before this big upmove. tried a silly snapback scout but closed it with 10 pips loss.

kind greets mate,
Fti is very rare person. Some people dont understand, that he is professionall. That it is very unikue chance to obtain high quality informations. But i hope, that as in everything... Also here are people who listen, who quietly read(at least sometimes...), trying to understand and one day they will be willing to help others in the best way they will be able... to find the World of quality, tolerance, briliance... Regards
  • #27,749
  • Oct 12, 2011 8:42am Oct 12, 2011 8:42am
Quoting bumapatria
True, but think of it this way most of the liquidity in spot FX is provided by banks, big funds, and institutions that have deep pockets which are fillled with a lot of cha-chings. This was defnitely unprecedented, as most my thread are looking for shorts instead of listening to what was happening. I was talkng mostly about why it moved that much really, i mean of course not everyone longs on rumours, i shorted red lion shorted, chicky shorted... hahah, ironic.. Well, you were the only subscriber to my thread that went long and got a bagful...
If you are talking about the EUR-USD, it was all there written in the charts; couple of well placed MA is all you need.

Why everyone trying to short the top is a mystery, thought it was THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #27,750
  • Oct 12, 2011 8:45am Oct 12, 2011 8:45am
Quoting Erebus
If you are talking about the EUR-USD, it was all there written in the charts; couple of well placed MA is all you need.

Why everyone trying to short the top is a mystery, thought it was THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND?
hi erebus.. i think u need to take off ur chart due to the nature of this thread...

well, trend is your friend until it lasts
counter-trending is even better friend well for me
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #27,751
  • Oct 12, 2011 9:36am Oct 12, 2011 9:36am
Quoting fti
The Romance of the 3 Kingdoms.
-------------------------------



That's in a nut shell is the romancing the 3 kingdom.
The symbiotic relationship between the USD vs EUR/GBP vs YEN.
They tell stories of whats normal and whats queer.

Seems the iron lady was sleeping with the japs.this round and gave lead.
Doesn't it?
Hi fti,
Does romancing of the 3 kingdoms still work now given the currency wars that are going on?

Hope you can help to enlighten me.
  • #27,752
  • Oct 12, 2011 9:56am Oct 12, 2011 9:56am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi fti,
Does romancing of the 3 kingdoms still work now given the currency wars that are going on?

Hope you can help to enlighten me.
Hi N,

I have no idea if that 3kgds correlation has lost some of it's value.
But what I can say for sure, when the 3 kgds are in sync (like in early London session) the move is very strong and also reliable.

Well - of course you have to be focussed on the charts and be very careful and nimble, cause you never know, when this realtionsship starts to fade. But that'S not a problem, cause following the rules you are trading according to the momentum (flow) in any case ...

CU,
Niels
  • #27,753
  • Oct 12, 2011 10:02am Oct 12, 2011 10:02am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi fti,
Does romancing of the 3 kingdoms still work now given the currency wars that are going on?

Hope you can help to enlighten me.
hello N-trader... maybe i am not the one to say some thing today but i am not trading and i will take Fana's advice and: willing to help others in the best way iam able... enough people who can correct me when iam wrong.

the 3 kindoms are in sync sometimes...

lately i see the most of the moves are euro moves ... you can see this when euro crosses all move in the same dirrection ... if this is the case the usd-yen and gbp-usd are relatively flat... espessialy usd-yen is relatively flat lately (IMHO!!)

when all the crosspairs are in sync the euro move is stronger than a single cross pair....

with the 3 kingdoms you can see if the dollar is moving... when the 3 are moving in the same direction (yen reversed ofcourse) than it's a stronger move than is only one pair moving.

this is the way i use them.. for some confirmation. and to see wich currency is moving.
great if some of the experienced here can correct confirm or add to this!

i hope your short did not do too much damage

regards. pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,754
  • Oct 12, 2011 10:21am Oct 12, 2011 10:21am
Quoting j-pax
hello N-trader... maybe i am not the one to say some thing today but i am not trading and i will take Fana's advice and: willing to help others in the best way iam able... enough people who can correct me when iam wrong.

the 3 kindoms are in sync sometimes...

lately i see the most of the moves are euro moves ... you can see this when euro crosses all move in the same dirrection ... if this is the case the usd-yen and gbp-usd are relatively flat... espessialy usd-yen is relatively flat lately (IMHO!!)

when all the crosspairs are in...
Hi Pax,
thanks for your kind sharing. I used to think the same in terms of the directional moves for the 3 crosses. However, BOJ has been trying to hold the line at 76.xx for the past few months. Seems like UJ may not be that reliable anymore as an indicator? e.g. when EU/GU trend up, UJ do not show the corresponding downward move anymore.

I believe some experience traders here would be able to share greater insights.

I had to close my shorts. cost me about 2% of my account.. I think i still need to work on my MM. seems like i have the tendency to overexpose myself too early into a trade.

Once again, thanks for sharing

Cheers
  • #27,755
  • Oct 12, 2011 10:28am Oct 12, 2011 10:28am
Quoting MaMood
Hi N,

I have no idea if that 3kgds correlation has lost some of it's value.
But what I can say for sure, when the 3 kgds are in sync (like in early London session) the move is very strong and also reliable.

Well - of course you have to be focussed on the charts and be very careful and nimble, cause you never know, when this realtionsship starts to fade. But that'S not a problem, cause following the rules you are trading according to the momentum (flow) in any case ...

CU,
Niels
Thanks Niels, I have been reading some of your posts. Guess you are a really good trader like fti said. I hope to learn more from you guys.. I usually do well for a couple of trade, only to give back the profits to the market shortly.. it's not so easy to be a millionaire after all huh? lol.

Could you share with me about scout placement? Do you try to place them at significant S/R levels or just at random?

My other question is regarding pivot levels. I know that some traders keep pivot levels at the back of their mind. But does it really work? I tried that before sometime back and experience random successes.

It's been a long day for me.. gotta get some rest.

good nite world

n
  • #27,756
  • Oct 12, 2011 10:30am Oct 12, 2011 10:30am
content of fed mins may already be priced in, action to take out more ducks coming
  • #27,757
  • Oct 12, 2011 10:36am Oct 12, 2011 10:36am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Pax,
thanks for your kind sharing. I used to think the same in terms of the directional moves for the 3 crosses. However, BOJ has been trying to hold the line at 76.xx for the past few months. Seems like UJ may not be that reliable anymore as an indicator? e.g. when EU/GU trend up, UJ do not show the corresponding downward move anymore.

I believe some experience traders here would be able to share greater insights.

I had to close my shorts. cost me about 2% of my account.. I think i still need to work on my MM. seems like i have the tendency...
i know Mahezwara (not shure i spell his name correct) used to watch Aud-usd instead of usd-yen ... with the 3 kngdms it's about the dollars moving so i think you can use this...

i also look out for more insight

ecb's trichet is talking at association for financial market>>> last time he spoke he was pretty negative and worried about high systemic risks.
ooh it's at their annual dinner >> so i guess he wil not spoil their appetite lol

cheers N
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,758
  • Oct 12, 2011 10:38am Oct 12, 2011 10:38am
Quoting imjscn
Hi Nieles, I just read your recent post. It's nice to know you get back your mindset :-)

I agree with you-- fundamental discussions are influencing some of us. Especially for people who haven't found their own ground.

We are traders, when meet, if not talk perspects, what else to say, can't speak numbers only. we either buy or sell or take a nap, conversations might be a bit dry. So, traders like to comment on fundamentals. Nothing wrong, but inexperienced traders might easily get influenced and bring it into battlestations. That's bad.

Like...
Hi IMJSCN. Very big thanks to you for all effort. Big respect to you! Greetings boss and God Bless.
  • #27,759
  • Oct 12, 2011 10:40am Oct 12, 2011 10:40am
I guess markets move on hope now ...cool.
  • #27,760
  • Oct 12, 2011 10:55am Oct 12, 2011 10:55am
Hi Guys !
I have a question about 3 Kingdoms
I Read in posts that some people say that 3 kingdoms in sync but i cant see it in the Charts.
As i imagine to myself to 3 kingdoms to be in sync we have to see Something Like mirror picture of The eurusd and gpbusd against usdjpy
I atach a picture and i dont see the sync of the pairs maybe i didnt understand well what it all about ?
regards
Michael

p.s. I like very much Reading this thread and trying to understand it.
I am very Glad that The owner of this Thread FTI is recovering may the recovery will be as complete as it can be.
And Bless all the contributors that pass on and help others with everithing they can.
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Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
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