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14 Year Old Forex Trader's Lessons

  • #2,141
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:00am Oct 12, 2011 12:00am
Quoting bumapatria
10,000 people can draw not the same, but almost maybe 100,000 trendlines all over the damn place lol. it was not on where most people would put it which was on that low.
That is way I said in my view, it is now though in my view.

mla
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 143 KB
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #2,142
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:03am Oct 12, 2011 12:03am
anyways for the morning 3 pips. closed hahha
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,143
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:06am Oct 12, 2011 12:06am
Copy from EurAnalysis thread:

It's a beautiful night here in the East coast, but I won't probably be looking at the same way at the markets today.

Let's have a quick look at some recent breaking news:

"S&P downgrades Spain's banking sector"
*More than expected

"EFSF plan would insure portion of sovereign bonds - Allianz"
*ok...

"Slovak parliament voted NO on EFSF again"
*Here's one comment by cichy: No problem. We'll do it Ireland style. We'll make vote after vote untill spirit is broken and parliament say ye

"Obama's jobs bill officially defeated in Senate"
*Obama's jobs bill officially defeated in Senate; Final vote is 50-49 - NBC News... I expected.

What are our expectations now?

The most important upcoming news is the "FOMC minutes"
*What happened last time?
** Henry Liu 1

The big surprise from the FOMC Statement was that there were no additional surprise liquidity ”measures/stimuli” announced. Sure, we got the 400 Billion on “Operation Twist”, but consider how widely it was publicized beforehand, it did very little to the overall market. At the end of the day, what market chose to focus on was the “significant downside risk…” phrase (Actually, this is the exact phrase from the FED: "Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated") and the overall tone of the Feds, here’s what I gathered:

 

  1. The use of the word “Significant” added a sense of seriousness in the overall risk to the economy. Many analysts have elevated their expectations for a double-dip recession in the U.S. as results… This is USD Positive.
  2. Ironically, the fact that no QE3 was announced nor any additional measures aside from Operation Twist, was in itself a positive message for the USD as the Federal Reserve did not see the need to introduce additional measures… This is USD Positive.
  3. The 3 dissenters – Fisher, Kocherlakota, and Plosser once again voted against further policy accommodation. This adds more fuel to the idea that within the FOMC there are members who feel current situation is temporary. This is USD Positive.
  4. The “exceptional low levels… through mid 2013″ phrase remained unchanged, which confirmed Fed’s commitments to maintain its easing policy. This is USD Negative (Actually, this is USD positive, because it helped with the risk aversion sentiment).

What should we expect this time?

Bernanke recently stated that the economy is close to faltering and that the FED is ready to act... There should be a possibilty for a QE3.

On the other hand, as the FED didn't do anything else than what was already expected last time, we could see a continuation of downward pressure.

What do you think about it?

In my opinion, we could see something alike to what happened yesterday. And by alike I mean to trade in a range of 100 pips.

Yesterday we saw a spike up for 40 pips, then a spike down for 60 pips, before US open when market spiked up again (there's a chart below).

For today, I will give my opinion and show some charts before the London session starts (around 02:00 am EST)


I'd like to see some opinions coming around.

Pbh

1 http://www.henryliuforex.com/5077/forex-trading-analysis-for-us-fomc-minutes-101211/

The reason I do this fundamental research and analysis is to try to find a bias towards my trading style. And from what I can see... It looks like a day with lot's of trading opportunities (whether longs or shorts). I do this everyday to have an expectation. Will post some charts later on.

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  • #2,144
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:06am Oct 12, 2011 12:06am
Quoting bumapatria
anyways for the morning 3 pips. closed hahha
That is a super scalp.

Anyway this is how i draw them:

- An uptrend line is drawn under prices, joining the lowest low to the highest pullback low which does not pass the line through prices in between. The line is then extended past the date of the highest high.

- A downtrend line is drawn above prices, joining the highest high to the lowest rally high which does not pass the line through prices in between. The line is then extended past the date of the lowest low.

mLa
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #2,145
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:20am Oct 12, 2011 12:20am
Quoting mla
That is a super scalp.

Anyway this is how i draw them:

- An uptrend line is drawn under prices, joining the lowest low to the highest pullback low which does not pass the line through prices in between. The line is then extended past the date of the highest high.

- A downtrend line is drawn above prices, joining the highest high to the lowest rally high which does not pass the line through prices in between. The line is then extended past the date of the lowest low.

mLa
to most lines i draw, i take closing lines. Highs and lows are fluctuations that arent really actually there, so i dont use them for trendlines, and supply and demand. I only use it for psych-level calculations.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,146
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:20am Oct 12, 2011 12:20am
Quoting Pbh
Copy from EurAnalysis thread:

It's a beautiful night here in the East coast, but I won't probably be looking at the same way at the markets today.

Let's have a quick look at some recent breaking news:

"S&P downgrades Spain's banking sector"
*More than expected

"EFSF plan would insure portion of sovereign bonds - Allianz"
*ok...

"Slovak parliament voted NO on EFSF again"
*Here's one comment by cichy: No problem. We'll do it Ireland style. We'll make vote after vote untill spirit is...
Good stuff

Looking forward to your charts.

mLa
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #2,147
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:22am Oct 12, 2011 12:22am
QE 3 would be somewhere in November in my opinion.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,148
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:23am Oct 12, 2011 12:23am
Quoting bumapatria
QE 3 would be somewhere in November in my opinion.
And the FOMC meeting is the perfect news to give us a hint
  • #2,149
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:25am Oct 12, 2011 12:25am
@pbh,

is that a unique way of drawing a trendline?
coz they look pretty funny to me.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,150
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:27am Oct 12, 2011 12:27am
Quoting bumapatria
@pbh,

is that a unique way of drawing a trendline?
coz they look pretty funny to me.
they are , I'm kind of new to MT4, help me out with that later via Skype.
  • #2,151
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:35am Oct 12, 2011 12:35am
Quoting Pbh
they are , I'm kind of new to MT4, help me out with that later via Skype.
no youre not new to metatrader.

you are new to technical analysis
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,152
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:39am Oct 12, 2011 12:39am
I only use it for psych-level calculations.[/quote]

Very interesting, sound like an Hitchcock movie

mLa
Attached Image
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #2,153
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:46am Oct 12, 2011 12:46am
Quoting bumapatria
no youre not new to metatrader.

you are new to technical analysis
Both of them.
  • #2,154
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:47am Oct 12, 2011 12:47am
Quoting mla
I only use it for psych-level calculations.
Very interesting, sound like an Hitchcock movie

mLa[/quote]


You know mla, it does haha.

mla, if i may ask, how old are you, if you dont mind telling me?

im 14, lol.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,155
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:49am Oct 12, 2011 12:49am
Quoting Pbh
Both of them.
http://sabiansymbols.typepad.com/.a/...37548834-320wi
Lol haha, dont worry we're here to help.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,156
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:52am Oct 12, 2011 12:52am
I'm expecting a fake reversal at 02:00 EST. Might work out better with GBPUSD and GBPJPY because these are the pairs that are most sensible to the market cycle.
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  • #2,157
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:52am Oct 12, 2011 12:52am
Quoting bumapatria
Very interesting, sound like an Hitchcock movie

mLa

You know mla, it does haha.

mla, if i may ask, how old are you, if you dont mind telling me?

im 14, lol.[/quote]

That is an odd question, Why do you want to know? This morning I got questioned about my gender, I feel like the Gestapo is around.

mLa
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #2,158
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:53am Oct 12, 2011 12:53am
Quoting mla
You know mla, it does haha.

mla, if i may ask, how old are you, if you dont mind telling me?

im 14, lol.
That is an odd question, Why do you want to know? This morning I got questioned about my gender, I feel like the Gestapo is around.

mLa[/quote]

i was about to say its not some interrogation or investigation haha, just wondering. Red is 26, Pbh is 14 as well, and u?

i dont know if u dont feel like it then i respect u.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #2,159
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:55am Oct 12, 2011 12:55am
Quoting Pbh
I'm expecting a fake reversal at 02:00 EST. Might work out better with GBPUSD and GBPJPY because these are the pairs that are most sensible to the market cycle.
Pbh
When is Frankfurt Opening?

mLa
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #2,160
  • Oct 12, 2011 12:56am Oct 12, 2011 12:56am
Quoting bumapatria
That is an odd question, Why do you want to know? This morning I got questioned about my gender, I feel like the Gestapo is around.

mLa
i was about to say its not some interrogation or investigation haha, just wondering. Red is 26, Pbh is 14 as well, and u?

i dont know if u dont feel like it then i respect u.[/quote]

I am 51. I hope you happy now.

mLa
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
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