SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
14 Year Old Forex Trader's Lessons
- #1,762
- Oct 8, 2011 8:02am Oct 8, 2011 8:02am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Will we see the Euro depreciate more in the coming weeks?
We just need more bad news or less hope from the EZ. The way things have been going lately, I am sure we will be seeing more of it.
Greece will most likely not get bailed out under the current arrangements, but rather go through some form of (attempted) controlled default. I am not sure how they can control it as when panic hits the markets, nobody can hold the floodgates closed. Such a situation will be very euro negative. Liquidity or not, there will still be fear of bank failures because no matter how much liquidity the ECB makes available, if a bank has to write down bad debt, they can no longer use it as collateral to borrow from the ECB. Those banks will have to be re-capitalized by the governments thereby putting those governments in more debt and most likely causing the rating agencies to downgrade them further. It's a downward spiral that is just itching to happen.
Furthermore, even if we do not see negative news from the EZ, we will almost certainly not see much positive. Therefore there will still be a certain level of risk aversion in the euro area. This will prevent the euro from gaining much value even in the event of equity and commodity market appreciation due to any possible improvement in the other developed world economies.
I will be very closely monitoring the yields of EZ government bonds from here forward and paying close attention the CDS (Credit Default Swap). I suspect now that Italy and Spain have been downgraded and that Portugal and Belgium have been put on negative outlook and review, it will not be long before one of the dominoes falls over and starts a chain reaction.
All this talk by politicians may be buying some time as it feeds the desperate hopes of current stake holders, but it is certainly not attracting new ones. Therefore it is a negative sum game. All they (the politicians) are managing to do is to control the meltdown. However, no matter how much they try to control it, it is still just that, a meltdown, and there are no viable solutions to the underlying problems in sight. There are only brakes which are not 100% effective and they never will be until the EZ hits bottom and everybody is done licking their wounds.
Once the dust settles and all stake holders have taken their losses, then and only then will we start to see a decent credible recovery in the EZ. Till then, any perceived recovery has no solid legs to stand on.
That's how I see it.
Cheers
PT
We just need more bad news or less hope from the EZ. The way things have been going lately, I am sure we will be seeing more of it.
Greece will most likely not get bailed out under the current arrangements, but rather go through some form of (attempted) controlled default. I am not sure how they can control it as when panic hits the markets, nobody can hold the floodgates closed. Such a situation will be very euro negative. Liquidity or not, there will still be fear of bank failures because no matter how much liquidity the ECB makes available, if a bank has to write down bad debt, they can no longer use it as collateral to borrow from the ECB. Those banks will have to be re-capitalized by the governments thereby putting those governments in more debt and most likely causing the rating agencies to downgrade them further. It's a downward spiral that is just itching to happen.
Furthermore, even if we do not see negative news from the EZ, we will almost certainly not see much positive. Therefore there will still be a certain level of risk aversion in the euro area. This will prevent the euro from gaining much value even in the event of equity and commodity market appreciation due to any possible improvement in the other developed world economies.
I will be very closely monitoring the yields of EZ government bonds from here forward and paying close attention the CDS (Credit Default Swap). I suspect now that Italy and Spain have been downgraded and that Portugal and Belgium have been put on negative outlook and review, it will not be long before one of the dominoes falls over and starts a chain reaction.
All this talk by politicians may be buying some time as it feeds the desperate hopes of current stake holders, but it is certainly not attracting new ones. Therefore it is a negative sum game. All they (the politicians) are managing to do is to control the meltdown. However, no matter how much they try to control it, it is still just that, a meltdown, and there are no viable solutions to the underlying problems in sight. There are only brakes which are not 100% effective and they never will be until the EZ hits bottom and everybody is done licking their wounds.
Once the dust settles and all stake holders have taken their losses, then and only then will we start to see a decent credible recovery in the EZ. Till then, any perceived recovery has no solid legs to stand on.
That's how I see it.
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #1,763
- Oct 8, 2011 10:45am Oct 8, 2011 10:45am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 10,724 Posts
After PT's great analysis,
the euro has room to drop a lot from the fundamentals + technicals on a higher timeframe chart such as a weekly or monthly.
Think of risk aversion of the investors + institutions + firms + hedge funds. This is still early. Most of them are not playing their biggest yet. The last rally is definitely not made yet. With the Eurozone 'delaying' their demise, and averting the public's attention to Greece, instead of countries like Italy and Spain. Nice try. Greece in my opinion will default, that stuff about re-capitalizing banks is a must is basically stating the obvious. It doesn't give a go for anything to happen. Its a retracement of the overall trend i would say. The major problem to me is the fact that ECB cannot create or amend monetary policies solely through themselves. They've got the sovereign countries to worry about. They are not a central bank. Investors are not keen on investing in the euro-zone, they are taking profits and only 'scalping' the stock market. Mind the quotes. They trade on small news, that are smaller than the bigger picture. Like many say, a cell is only the small picture. The organism as a whole is the bigger picture. Put it that way. People know the bigger stuff is the state Europe is in, not some sentence merkel said about re-capitalization of banks. Its a belief wiped away as fast as a few hours. Right now im looking for more shorts than long in eur/usd especially, as to longing has more risk exposure against the bigger gamers in play.
Waiting for the right time for the US to inflate badly, that's our time to sell the bucks. The thing about technical analysis that really lets us down is the WHEN part. no one knows when, but can get an average prediction. In thinking somewhere in mid November around the tens.
Thats the time to buy gold, silver
the euro has room to drop a lot from the fundamentals + technicals on a higher timeframe chart such as a weekly or monthly.
Think of risk aversion of the investors + institutions + firms + hedge funds. This is still early. Most of them are not playing their biggest yet. The last rally is definitely not made yet. With the Eurozone 'delaying' their demise, and averting the public's attention to Greece, instead of countries like Italy and Spain. Nice try. Greece in my opinion will default, that stuff about re-capitalizing banks is a must is basically stating the obvious. It doesn't give a go for anything to happen. Its a retracement of the overall trend i would say. The major problem to me is the fact that ECB cannot create or amend monetary policies solely through themselves. They've got the sovereign countries to worry about. They are not a central bank. Investors are not keen on investing in the euro-zone, they are taking profits and only 'scalping' the stock market. Mind the quotes. They trade on small news, that are smaller than the bigger picture. Like many say, a cell is only the small picture. The organism as a whole is the bigger picture. Put it that way. People know the bigger stuff is the state Europe is in, not some sentence merkel said about re-capitalization of banks. Its a belief wiped away as fast as a few hours. Right now im looking for more shorts than long in eur/usd especially, as to longing has more risk exposure against the bigger gamers in play.
Waiting for the right time for the US to inflate badly, that's our time to sell the bucks. The thing about technical analysis that really lets us down is the WHEN part. no one knows when, but can get an average prediction. In thinking somewhere in mid November around the tens.
Thats the time to buy gold, silver
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
- #1,764
- Oct 8, 2011 12:25pm Oct 8, 2011 12:25pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Buma, you are spot on.
Cheers
PT
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #1,765
- Oct 8, 2011 12:34pm Oct 8, 2011 12:34pm
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,680 Posts
my little guy is growing up, buma, nice analysis.
goldman and pip trapper, great minds think alike.
i like your views on the market,
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
- #1,766
- Oct 8, 2011 12:40pm Oct 8, 2011 12:40pm
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,680 Posts
by the way buma
MAMOOD vouched for you, congrats
he is one of my mentors, one of the people that i owe all my success to, incredible trader, he gave me live hand holding sessions on skype, he traded live as i looked, he is full pro, and his style is amazing.
i do not trade like him, but i am very grateful to him, he is lightning fast, scale scale rescue all within 5 minutes.
MAMOOD vouched for you, congrats
he is one of my mentors, one of the people that i owe all my success to, incredible trader, he gave me live hand holding sessions on skype, he traded live as i looked, he is full pro, and his style is amazing.
i do not trade like him, but i am very grateful to him, he is lightning fast, scale scale rescue all within 5 minutes.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
- #1,767
- Oct 8, 2011 1:31pm Oct 8, 2011 1:31pm
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,680 Posts
Atoms make up molecules. Molecules make up cell organelles. Cell organelles make up cells. Cells make up tissues. Tissues make up organs. Organs make up organ systems, and organ systems make up an organism. Same way i look at different time frames (1M candles make up 5M candle etc). Muppets who say 1M is just a noise don't really know what their talking about, it's like saying that atoms are just a noise and we only should look at molecules because those are larger and it is better to examine them. I'm not saying that everyone should look 1M chart...
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
- #1,768
- Oct 8, 2011 1:55pm Oct 8, 2011 1:55pm
- | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,539 Posts
wow, 14 years old trader
You've got heart, keep it up
You've got heart, keep it up
- #1,769
- Oct 8, 2011 4:58pm Oct 8, 2011 4:58pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 2,325 Posts
This is a weekly chart distorted.
If my bias is long, I can see a lot of opportunities on going that way or if my bias is short I can .........
mla
If my bias is long, I can see a lot of opportunities on going that way or if my bias is short I can .........
mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
- #1,770
- Oct 8, 2011 5:19pm Oct 8, 2011 5:19pm
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 10,724 Posts
@Redlion
Dude, if it wasn't for your constant nagging (teaching) i would be the same guy who buys on blue, and sells on red indicator bars. To the other guys, i skype this guy almost every alternative day, and he is always willing to talk, and help me to understand the markets, and we'd have a few jokes in between to not kill ourselves talking about forex. Mamood does that?! damn thats extreme..
I honestly feel that i am getting even more readier for live on new year. I just need to stay unemotional about it, remember the time i blew the account, trade as if it is second nature, just like in demo.
@piptrapper,
Thanks so much friend, for your vouch. I began to analyze the way i did because of red's advice of not only looking at charts and predicting price, but analyzing the movement of it. I love the way YOU have those long posts, and that inspired me
@mla,
can i have that indicator? TELL ME WHERE YOU GOT IT
lol.
Dude, if it wasn't for your constant nagging (teaching
) i would be the same guy who buys on blue, and sells on red indicator bars. To the other guys, i skype this guy almost every alternative day, and he is always willing to talk, and help me to understand the markets, and we'd have a few jokes in between to not kill ourselves talking about forex. Mamood does that?! damn thats extreme..I honestly feel that i am getting even more readier for live on new year. I just need to stay unemotional about it, remember the time i blew the account, trade as if it is second nature, just like in demo.
@piptrapper,
Thanks so much friend, for your vouch. I began to analyze the way i did because of red's advice of not only looking at charts and predicting price, but analyzing the movement of it. I love the way YOU have those long posts, and that inspired me
@mla,
can i have that indicator? TELL ME WHERE YOU GOT IT
lol.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
- #1,771
- Edited 6:09pm Oct 8, 2011 5:42pm | Edited 6:09pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 2,325 Posts
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
- #1,772
- Oct 8, 2011 5:56pm Oct 8, 2011 5:56pm
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 10,724 Posts
@MLa,
come on man,,, give a break through this price action and law of motion + ichimoku + gann...
FEEDD MEEE!!
I NEED A N INDICATORR!!!
http://media.giantbomb.com/uploads/0...7-rathalos.jpg
Im good man indicators 90% of them have no use, except the basic ones such as MACD, Williams etc. Im sure they made millions in their time, the creators.
come on man,,, give a break through this price action and law of motion + ichimoku + gann...
FEEDD MEEE!!
I NEED A N INDICATORR!!!
http://media.giantbomb.com/uploads/0...7-rathalos.jpg
Im good man indicators 90% of them have no use, except the basic ones such as MACD, Williams etc. Im sure they made millions in their time, the creators.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
- #1,773
- Oct 8, 2011 6:04pm Oct 8, 2011 6:04pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 2,325 Posts
@MLa,
come on man,,, give a break through this price action and law of motion + ichimoku + gann...
FEEDD MEEE!!
I NEED A N INDICATORR!!!
http://media.giantbomb.com/uploads/0...7-rathalos.jpg
Im good man indicators 90% of them have no use, except the basic ones such as MACD, Williams etc. Im sure they made millions in their time, the creators.
mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
- #1,774
- Oct 8, 2011 6:08pm Oct 8, 2011 6:08pm
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 10,724 Posts
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
- #1,775
- Oct 8, 2011 6:18pm Oct 8, 2011 6:18pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 2,325 Posts
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
- #1,776
- Oct 8, 2011 6:23pm Oct 8, 2011 6:23pm
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 10,724 Posts
Spot on mate,
more boring stuff coming:
The light of your awareness is a glorious boon from God.
It is the protection, your guide, your wealth, your liberation.
When you lose an object in the dark, you can find it with a candle or a flashlight. You can turn on a lamp.
But when you lose your thought, ideas, intentions and goals in the dark field of your mind, how will you regain them?
Only the light of your awareness can illumine the field of your mind
mla
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
- #1,777
- Oct 8, 2011 6:33pm Oct 8, 2011 6:33pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 2,325 Posts
Its not boring. I find it illuminating my way
"A human being has the freedom to become anything. By his own power he can make his life sublime or wretched. By his own power he can reach the Heavens or descend to the depths.
In fact the power of a human being is so great that he can even transform himself into God. God lies in the heart of every human being, and everyone has the power to realise that."
Is this related to trading? Yes it is, in my view.
mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
- #1,778
- Oct 8, 2011 6:39pm Oct 8, 2011 6:39pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 2,325 Posts
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
- #1,779
- Oct 8, 2011 6:39pm Oct 8, 2011 6:39pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
I feed you a bit more then:
"A human being has the freedom to become anything. By his own power he can make his life sublime or wretched. By his own power he can reach the Heavens or descend to the depths.
In fact the power of a human being is so great that he can even transform himself into God. God lies in the heart of every human being, and everyone has the power to realise that."
Is this related to trading? Yes it is, in my view.
mla
Even Socrates said: "The most important thing you can do as a person is to know thyself"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #1,780
- Oct 8, 2011 6:40pm Oct 8, 2011 6:40pm
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 10,724 Posts
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?