Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1376 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #27,501
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:58pm Oct 7, 2011 1:58pm
nice weekend

Inserted Video
  • #27,502
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:00pm Oct 7, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting textor
Something to read over the weekend:

http://pragcap.com/why-you-likely-trade-like-a-loser

http://www.tilsonfunds.com/TilsonBehavioralFinance.pdf

Rgs,

Textor
Thanks for the articles, Textor.
The artile on profiling losers is easy.
But is hard to profile a winner from a loser sometimes.
Normally they both think and act as required.
One thinks as rationally as one can, but sometimes too much thinking , just gets in the way.
Successful traders have a sort of persona.
Personality, if you like. We call that applitude.
Experienced delaers can smell another good one or a wannabe by first sight.
Its hard to pin down, its aura.

regards
  • #27,503
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:06pm Oct 7, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting fti
red lion

Thanks, yeap in a nutshell , is something like that.
But be careful your indicators, they will have limits to their effectiveness.
If you need them , thats fine too.
But beware to allow them affect your trigger finger.

regards
thanks fti

they are probability reads, more in tune with my VAR and i actually stare at the quotes the bid/ask and spread widening lol

however my "indicators" give me objective probabilities, of usual market movement and behavior, but i am always wrong till proven right.

i have been doing a lot of research on offsetting risk on agreggate, price shading, macro structure and micro structure, so i got a good understanding of the market.


i have multiple monitor station in one i have the tick bid/ask quote board which is most important and for reference i got the hourly and daily chart there.

on the other computer i have my excel spread sheet calculations of ATR and pivots, and i have news, and stuff.

but my mainly trading monitor, i got a 5 minute chart with daily open, and a 12 sma faint lightly visible, helps with fair market value when entering a position as well as momentum read but the candles alone help with that.

the candle is an indicator as well is the quotes that tell the truth.


trust me fti, i do not have opinions, or expectations in my logical head i just need probabilities,
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #27,504
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:09pm Oct 7, 2011 2:09pm
Quoting Gro
Hi fti and all

glad to see you, you still have the same humor.It is a good sign

Rgs
Hi Gro
how things?

regards
  • #27,505
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:10pm Oct 7, 2011 2:10pm
all ROI monthly targets have been met for the past 3 months, and this monthly ROI is met as well im .64% above target.


that is how i measure my success, steady ROI growth,

with threshold parameters and a phii ratio as to never be over extended, if i dont have a pi rescue sequence for my current lots then im above my risk parameter, keeps me safe

100% success rate,

and im careful not to play god with the markets no overconfidence each time i pull the trigger i enter the line of fire and past success is irrelevant, it is the trade im in NOW i focus on
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #27,506
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:14pm Oct 7, 2011 2:14pm
Quoting fti

wow, tier 1 dealing floor.
Don't they have large coffee cups?
ya thats fine and dandy , if dealers want stick their tool somewhere when they deal. But what about the ladies?




regards
i still do not know how you did it ..large cups?... leave a second on guard??? mostly people have to go when there is danger!!
about therail traveling Dutch ladies ... they say it is tooo small

and about a feeling the direction>>> when you started this threat you where very strict about following the dayly trend (..... maybe because of option strategies>> long sword??)
later you used to be more flexible and flip succesfully... if this is not a mechenical decisions it has to be about price action and how i makes you feel??! and then react.. or how you put it, even beter, reflex!!!
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,507
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:17pm Oct 7, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting fti
Hi Gro
how things?

regards
a one good friend taught me

... "In the seeming chaos of war
is a real defeat ... excluded!" ...

You have a better? feel you better physically?

Rgs
  • #27,508
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:18pm Oct 7, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting the redlion
thanks fti

they are probability reads, more in tune with my VAR and i actually stare at the quotes the bid/ask and spread widening lol

however my "indicators" give me objective probabilities, of usual market movement and behavior, but i am always wrong till proven right.

i have been doing a lot of research on offsetting risk on agreggate, price shading, macro structure and micro structure, so i got a good understanding of the market.


i have multiple monitor station in one i have the tick bid/ask quote board which is most important...
Understood, redlion.
Is just that is not in me look at too many stuff.
Already have so much just scanning thru the price gyrations of so many majors, let alone probabilities of anything.
When markets move , is dificult enough just focus on the board of ladies, than need to know what the probabilities.
When things happen move fast,then access if position is in tune with the dance and volitility.
In fact when i trade, i wonder if i think, because i never remember thinking at all.

regards
  • #27,509
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:19pm Oct 7, 2011 2:19pm
TA-Charting on Brownian Motion:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=318853
  • #27,510
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:22pm Oct 7, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting the redlion
all ROI monthly targets have been met for the past 3 months, and this monthly ROI is met as well im .64% above target.


that is how i measure my success, steady ROI growth,

with threshold parameters and a phii ratio as to never be over extended, if i dont have a pi rescue sequence for my current lots then im above my risk parameter, keeps me safe

100% success rate,

and im careful not to play god with the markets no overconfidence each time i pull the trigger i enter the line of fire and past success is irrelevant, it is the trade...
I am glad to hear.

Keep it humming along.

Good Fortune.

Nice week end to all.

regards
  • #27,511
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:28pm Oct 7, 2011 2:28pm
i am a thinker and logical strategical player.

i cannot dance very well, i look at the big picture news and big computer and brain power. always stay objective

the market is my patient and i diagnose the market with my tools, and always open minded, may be this medicine is not working so well, he is having n/v, and generalized malaise, add a little prilosec or reglan get some blood work and try a different approach.

always cover my ass in case of lawsuits and look at the whole organism, using scientific tools, not overlook a symptom, if i dont know refer him to a specialist.

lol in the case of the market if i dont know i wait till i see clear signs,

a pit trader at chicago mercantile exchange one said " i dont respect the mother fuckers that make big money today, and cry when they lose it tomorrow, is the fuckers that keep the money and do this day in and day out that i take my hats off to"
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #27,512
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:32pm Oct 7, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting j-pax
i still do not know how you did it ..large cups?... leave a second on guard??? mostly people have to go when there is danger!!
about therail traveling Dutch ladies ... they say it is tooo small

and about a feeling the direction>>> when you started this threat you where very strict about following the dayly trend (..... maybe because of option strategies>> long sword??)
later you used to be more flexible and flip succesfully... if this is not a mechenical decisions it has to be about price action and how i makes you feel??! and...
pax, when you hot on a trades, nothing matters.
My boys, they can puke or pee or shit in their seats if they need to.
We'll have some one clean up the mess in a jiffy.
ya ya I heard, to them , size matters.

No, pax think you may had missunderstood.
I trade 1 way street. Either i kill, or i try come out in one piece if it gets rainy. When i detect impulse against my blotter i respond. In so far as flips, never more than 2 times. 3rd one already means its shitty , very very high skews already. There's no way be on 2 buses.

regards
  • #27,513
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:37pm Oct 7, 2011 2:37pm
by the way, fti, i am really glad you are doing well in battle gear and all, how is your ejection fraction? i hope your b/p and INR are under control.

i hope to meet you some day. maybe i should vacation in Singapore in search for the holy grail, mr FREDDIE, the best trader, mentor anyone could ever have
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #27,514
  • Edited 2:58pm Oct 7, 2011 2:45pm | Edited 2:58pm
Quoting the redlion
i am a thinker and logical strategical player.

i cannot dance very well, i look at the big picture news and big computer and brain power. always stay objective

the market is my patient and i diagnose the market with my tools, and always open minded, may be this medicine is not working so well, he is having n/v, and generalized malaise, add a little prilosec or reglan get some blood work and try a different approach.

always cover my ass in case of lawsuits and look at the whole organism, using scientific tools, not overlook a symptom, if...
noted.
To each we find our own niche.

yes, redlion, the trader is right. trades are just that, trades, nothing personal.
Money to traders is just ammo. If gets personal about it then becomes a drag.

redjackets, their Mo is slightly different. This because they not need make the market. They lean on paper and keep shaffling the direction.In many ways just scalping. Dealers are a little different , in the sense that every other dealer is trying clobber your donkey , all the time, with size.

For retail traders , I sometime wonder if is because they become too intellectual about what they do, that everything need make sense.
In trading, you are either on the train, or you missed. If you are on then you try ride along and improve book. If missed there's always another trade coming along.
Dealers , they never wait for trades or levels. We just jump in and from the position access what we must do make the pips. If get in a firefight that feels bad, we cut tail and run away and fight another day. Or if wenot feel its turned rotten , we use all within our capabilities turn things around with capital resources , strategies and cunning MMs.

All the mindset training and skill sets is never felt when on trades. Either one has internalised it and can respond , or one is not capable execute it.
The way is to know about them and allow them set into self and be productively used.



regards
  • #27,515
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:52pm Oct 7, 2011 2:52pm
Quoting fti
pax, when you hot on a trades, nothing matters.
My boys, they can puke or pee or shit in their seats if they need to.
We'll have some one clean up the mess in a jiffy.
ya ya I heard, to them , size matters.


regards
ok thanks Fti, i understand, i was stiil on trend only MO so had a heavy week but i managed.

one of my dance favorites:

Inserted Video


greets and have a good weekend
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,516
  • Edited 3:38pm Oct 7, 2011 3:18pm | Edited 3:38pm
Quoting the redlion
by the way, fti, i am really glad you are doing well in battle gear and all, how is your ejection fraction? i hope your b/p and INR are under control.

i hope to meet you some day. maybe i should vacation in Singapore in search for the holy grail, mr FREDDIE, the best trader, mentor anyone could ever have
redlion, thanks for checking.
Nope i am high and dry, not touched the markets except for some cash movements.the heart is same sub 30%s. LV thrombos is stable already. Bp improved much as doing chinese Hirudo. The master helping me, he has BP of 400( no machines can meassure , need do manually.) His blood not flows, its a rush. I have regular session remove chunks of clots from my body. Come out like meat pieces. Now i am not wobally mostly except that i have weak strength levels. Also stopped all medicines and survivng on ginger , red dates and chinese moulds. Diet has changed to eat everything, mostly greens. The sifu , he's not a normal human being. No one can have BP of 400 and still live. He is attempting similar for me." 400 is no typo,i measured his pulse manually myself. Every machine used just reads error everytime.

I know is a big risk, but seems I feel much better doing it this way.

No, my friend, I am not in SG for many months already.
I am back home with my mom in remote town much north of Sg.
I am adviced not to travel, so i had left sg matters in others hands.

regards
  • #27,517
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:18pm Oct 7, 2011 3:18pm
Quoting fti
noted.
To each we find our own niche.

yes, redlion, the trader is right. trades are just that, trades, nothing personal.
Money to traders is just ammo. If gets personal about it then becomes a drag.

redjackets, their Mo is slightly different. This because they not need make the market. They lean on paper and keep shaffling the direction.In many ways just scalping. Dealers are a little different , in the sense that every other dealer is trying clobber your donkey , all the time, with size.

For retail traders , I sometime wonder if...
i completely understand fti
but my experience is not up to that level so what i lack in experience i make it up in intelligence, but as i told you before one day i will be making billions, till then lets work on the present, building up experience.

thanks to you fti, and when people write my auto biography your due credit as well as mamood, and everyone that contributed to my growth will be give, but most important of all i will use my capital to help those that need it.

its a matter of when, but till then i focus on the task at hand
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #27,518
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:46pm Oct 7, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting the redlion
i completely understand fti
but my experience is not up to that level so what i lack in experience i make it up in intelligence, but as i told you before one day i will be making billions, till then lets work on the present, building up experience.

thanks to you fti, and when people write my auto biography your due credit as well as mamood, and everyone that contributed to my growth will be give, but most important of all i will use my capital to help those that need it.

its a matter of when, but till then i focus on the task at hand
most noble and humane personality. i am proud to had helped.
and surely God will guide you well to your goals, my friend.

Much Blessings.

regards
  • #27,519
  • Oct 7, 2011 4:00pm Oct 7, 2011 4:00pm
Quoting fti

I know is a big risk, but seems I feel much better doing it this way.

No, my friend, I am not in SG for many months already.
I am back home with my mom in remote town much north of Sg.
I am adviced not to travel, so i had left sg matters in others hands.

regards
this song came to my mind... you made it to warrior chief.. time to relax now.

kind greets, pax

Inserted Video
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,520
  • Oct 7, 2011 6:39pm Oct 7, 2011 6:39pm
Hi folks,

I have a an regarding the dance. Do we start the dance before wave1 or do we wait for retractment after wave1 to send in the scout?
27 traders viewing now, 1 is registered: