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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #27,481
  • Oct 7, 2011 8:38am Oct 7, 2011 8:38am
Quoting fti
seems selling of euro against usd is a futile effort.
everything seems moved to the euro crosses.
If only euro/CNY was available. oops eurocable seems ripe.
usd now just as lame as the euro.
maybe euro /aud and possibly everything else.



regards
Chief,

i want to put some mind on it...many times i have seen like now EU is on Bull side... UJ is kinda in a range of 30 pips...

so in DEMO... i have shorted EU and whenever the market is against me i.e. making higher high...i wait when it retraces a little.. take some of my scout out with loss nedded...and then i see if UJ is has made low..... then i go LONG E/Y ....i dont know this is hedge or whatever....

so far it has worked....and gave back soem rescue and close the book with some profit...

isnt the same thing with Euro/AUD...in the end we are just trying to buy or sell which will go higher or lower against USD...


V
  • #27,482
  • Oct 7, 2011 9:32am Oct 7, 2011 9:32am
Something to read over the weekend:

http://pragcap.com/why-you-likely-trade-like-a-loser

http://www.tilsonfunds.com/TilsonBehavioralFinance.pdf

Rgs,

Textor
  • #27,483
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:20am Oct 7, 2011 11:20am
i have a feeling people don't like to be short the dollar over the weekend .. i am short the eurusd from 1.35 .... is thinking like this predicting or logical thinking about traders fears?? wow look good now !!

3 kindoms together again now

no euro crosses also fall so no dollar move
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,484
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:45am Oct 7, 2011 11:45am
what a flight down by EUR
  • #27,485
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:10pm Oct 7, 2011 1:10pm
Hi Friends!

Also a lot of Gold was sold.
Seems some banks are selling some of their Gold reserves to strengthen their liquidity ...

All in all a great trading day!

Wish you all a great weekend.

CU,
Niels
  • #27,486
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:23pm Oct 7, 2011 1:23pm
i am sorry to ask stupid question .
the news from fitch ,the trend line from my chart .considence ? or something like conspiracy? i am confused .Technical analysis fallacy , but how SHOULD I understand this phenomenon ?

thank you for your reply advance .
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #27,487
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:38pm Oct 7, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting geniusztc
i am sorry to ask stupid question .
the news from fitch ,the trend line from my chart .considence ? or something like conspiracy? i am confused .Technical analysis fallacy , but how SHOULD I understand this phenomenon ?

thank you for your reply advance .
i think it's coinsidence but i think it"s good that fitch breaks bad news on a high. maybe they look at levels you look at. i have seen ratingsagenties downgrade around yearly lows, after months of research

i was paranoia thinking about conspiracy because of a small 5m.head and shoulders before they downgrade spain and italy....insiders????

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,488
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:52pm Oct 7, 2011 1:52pm
Bank Holidays on Monday in the US, CAD, JPY.
Could be an very interesting last hour today ....

Let's twist
  • #27,489
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:12pm Oct 7, 2011 3:12pm
squared now,

news from the Netherlands relates to a question i have for a long time.
the dutch rail roads have no more toilets on many trains and introduced "pissbags" they are the travel john brand

when baby sitting my trades and have to go to the toilet i often imagine i have to walk for a long time in the dealingroom.

do these dealers have pissingbags???

have a good weekend everyone, pax
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even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,490
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:25pm Oct 7, 2011 3:25pm
Quoting Fana
Yeah... i have there scout, watching it... i attack and sometimes mindset is exhausted and i wasnt able to act... Sometimes i had a scorpion of " I have so small acc, i must risk"... That were my biggest problems i think...
Yes Fti, i will re-read AOW.
- It sounds now so clear... that i dont understand that i was so "out".
- the changes of my mindset are slower i expected... But time to build more confidence and go ahead.
Regards
ok Good that you see it.
Now go do the required.

Good weekend.

regards
  • #27,491
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:26pm Oct 7, 2011 3:26pm
path in life

http://news.sky.com/home/article/15589848
  • #27,492
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:30pm Oct 7, 2011 3:30pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Chief,

i want to put some mind on it...many times i have seen like now EU is on Bull side... UJ is kinda in a range of 30 pips...

so in DEMO... i have shorted EU and whenever the market is against me i.e. making higher high...i wait when it retraces a little.. take some of my scout out with loss nedded...and then i see if UJ is has made low..... then i go LONG E/Y ....i dont know this is hedge or whatever....

so far it has worked....and gave back soem rescue and close the book with some profit...

isnt the same thing with Euro/AUD...in...
err, vic,
this is trading crosses, is a strategy.

Short Euro long USD
Long Euro short yen

=?
long USD/Yen
But you gotta figure out ,what's your cost of your position?
where are you effectively long the usd/yen?

whats to complain.
But your broker surely loves you for the amount of business.

regards
  • #27,493
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:33pm Oct 7, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting geniusztc
i am sorry to ask stupid question .
the news from fitch ,the trend line from my chart .considence ? or something like conspiracy? i am confused .Technical analysis fallacy , but how SHOULD I understand this phenomenon ?

thank you for your reply advance .
not coincidence

you see the market is UNPREDICTABLE but NOT RANDOM, it NEVER changes yet is CONSTANTLY changing. adapt to this and you will be set.

technical levels hold their ground, whether you see it as direction and volatility deviations or important price levels, it happens to often to be pure coincidence.

Technical tools on their own cannot be predictive but once you start reading the tape and develop price reading skills, it can be highly profitable.

just understand why the trend line work, in my opinion has to do with speed and momentum of downside pressure when breaking trend line order prevalence clearly changes. learn to exploit them, i dont use them.

i use daily open and my own version of TR with pivots for probabilities as well as volatility range.

fundamentals are the reason players take positions, technicals are how they are taking positions.

but at the end of the day, price movement is ruled by supply, demand and liquidity. always think you are wrong till proven right, and be ready for any eventualities.

there are many ways to skin the cat, each adapts in his own way.
what is presented here is taking the blindfold off your eyes, and shifting your mentality from predicting to analyzing.

you dont have to do it like fti, do it like yourself, but his money management is solid, at your discretion. his way of reading the market comes from experience and experience cannot be taught.

hence why is wise to listen to others but follow your own path.

i can tell you that i have statistical, factual objective analysis of likely turning points, its all in the data, however predicting is for psychics you just need solid probabilities.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #27,494
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:34pm Oct 7, 2011 3:34pm
Quoting j-pax
i have a feeling people don't like to be short the dollar over the weekend .. i am short the eurusd from 1.35 .... is thinking like this predicting or logical thinking about traders fears?? wow look good now !!

3 kindoms together again now

no euro crosses also fall so no dollar move
??? j-pax
what's your feelings gotta do with others blotters?
You are assuming things for others because of your position. no?

You not seem predicting.
Probably trying convince yurself of something, I guess.

regards
  • #27,495
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:35pm Oct 7, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends!

Also a lot of Gold was sold.
Seems some banks are selling some of their Gold reserves to strengthen their liquidity ...

All in all a great trading day!

Wish you all a great weekend.

CU,
Niels
yeap mamood,

anyone on a liquidity crunch may even sell the kitchen sink.

wait till they need buy it back later.

regards
  • #27,496
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:38pm Oct 7, 2011 3:38pm
Quoting geniusztc
i am sorry to ask stupid question .
the news from fitch ,the trend line from my chart .considence ? or something like conspiracy? i am confused .Technical analysis fallacy , but how SHOULD I understand this phenomenon ?

thank you for your reply advance .
you need ask fitch.
Maybe they have exposures? Who knows?

But what has that got to do with anything. Rating agencies can rate anything they like , as they deem fit.
Why hasn't they rated USD or Euro junk yet?
They have their models.
So has playboy magazine.


regards
  • #27,497
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:43pm Oct 7, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting j-pax
squared now,

news from the Netherlands relates to a question i have for a long time.
the dutch rail roads have no more toilets on many trains and introduced "pissbags" they are the travel john brand : D

when baby sitting my trades and have to go to the toilet i often imagine i have to walk for a long time in the dealingroom.

do these dealers have pissingbags??? : rofl:

have a good weekend everyone, pax

wow, tier 1 dealing floor.
Don't they have large coffee cups?
ya thats fine and dandy , if dealers want stick their tool somewhere when they deal. But what about the ladies?




regards
  • #27,498
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:47pm Oct 7, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting fti
??? j-pax
what's your feelings gotta do with others blotters?
You are assuming things for others because of your position. no?

You not seem predicting.
Probably trying convince yurself of something, I guess.

regards
i took the position when i was thinking people did not want to be long eur and short usd.... i had no scout in and had to choose direction,,, i was right ... when wrong i will manage it the best i can.

how ever i am negative all week ... short al the time and have not lost money ... so i think this is time to be alert to ego scorpions
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,499
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:49pm Oct 7, 2011 3:49pm
Hi fti and all

glad to see you, you still have the same humor.It is a good sign

Rgs
  • #27,500
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:50pm Oct 7, 2011 3:50pm
Quoting the redlion
not coincidence

you see the market is UNPREDICTABLE but NOT RANDOM, it NEVER changes yet is CONSTANTLY changing. adapt to this and you will be set.

technical levels hold their ground, whether you see it as direction and volatility deviations or important price levels, it happens to often to be pure coincidence.

Technical tools on their own cannot be predictive but once you start reading the tape and develop price reading skills, it can be highly profitable.

just understand why the trend line work, in my opinion has to do with speed...
red lion

Thanks, yeap in a nutshell , is something like that.
But be careful your indicators, they will have limits to their effectiveness.
If you need them , thats fine too.
But beware to allow them affect your trigger finger.

regards
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