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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #27,361
  • Edited 3:36pm Oct 4, 2011 3:25pm | Edited 3:36pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
any news floating for this USD bear run?....


V
news cnbc was talking about shorts covering .... if i look at the daily chart there are still many shorts >>>i am carefull now!!??

i stay short anyway....i was short all day and made money wich suggests bears and bulls make money and pigs get killed!!!

kind greetings, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,362
  • Oct 4, 2011 4:00pm Oct 4, 2011 4:00pm
Quoting j-pax
news cnbc was talking about shorts covering .... if i look at the daily chart there are still many shorts >>>i am carefull now!!??

i stay short anyway....i was short all day and made money wich suggests bears and bulls make money and pigs get killed!!!

kind greetings, pax
Well i just booked a 1% loss...which is ok... part of trading.


V
  • #27,363
  • Oct 4, 2011 4:03pm Oct 4, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Well i just booked a 1% loss...which is ok... part of trading.


V
Read my sig .
  • #27,364
  • Oct 4, 2011 4:10pm Oct 4, 2011 4:10pm
Quoting M-H Trader
Read my sig .
Yup....

its alrigtttttteeeeeee...




V
  • #27,365
  • Oct 4, 2011 4:49pm Oct 4, 2011 4:49pm
Quoting fti
hi gart,

ahh work hard is good, work smart better?
No need thanks , amongst friends.

trade well

regards
Thx FTI... you're a great man ...
  • #27,366
  • Oct 4, 2011 4:54pm Oct 4, 2011 4:54pm
Attached Image


ahhh....

greetings to MaMood!
  • #27,367
  • Oct 4, 2011 5:24pm Oct 4, 2011 5:24pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
any news floating for this USD bear run?....


V
Hi V,

Here is the reason for the sudden dollar bear run today:
http://www.businessinsider.com/this-...ht-now-2011-10

It looks like the markets are reacting to anything that sounds positive for the euro. Read the 7th and 8th paragraph of the attached article. Kind of says it all.
  • #27,368
  • Oct 4, 2011 5:46pm Oct 4, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi V,

Here is the reason for the sudden dollar bear run today:
http://www.businessinsider.com/this-...ht-now-2011-10

It looks like the markets are reacting to anything that sounds positive for the euro. Read the 7th and 8th paragraph of the attached article. Kind of says it all.

Dont they say something like
buy the rumor and sell the news...
I guess some bought the no news.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ft-cau...end-day-rumors
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #27,369
  • Oct 4, 2011 8:31pm Oct 4, 2011 8:31pm
Quoting luSan
Dont they say something like
buy the rumor and sell the news...
I guess some bought the no news.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ft-cau...end-day-rumors
This is bad.........beat me fair in the ring i wont mind.......this way i hate to say but man people have lost respect......

hate loosing this way........

anyhow tomorrow will be another day...

"Fool me once shame on you ...fool me twice shame on me"


V
  • #27,370
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:16pm Oct 4, 2011 9:16pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
This is bad.........beat me fair in the ring i wont mind.......this way i hate to say but man people have lost respect......

hate loosing this way........

anyhow tomorrow will be another day...

"Fool me once shame on you ...fool me twice shame on me"


V
It is not personal.
I think that the shorts are cashing in so near to 1.3.
and the long probably will be killed...there is not particular reason -I mean, major economical decision at the moment that says that Europe is out of the mess...so I believe that the trend will hold.
I would hold tight and follow the chief advise of keeping eyes in the upper time frame, the mayor trend, and downsizing...at least this works for me...I did and I am tracking this animal from the mid 1.4
Cheers
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #27,371
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:26pm Oct 4, 2011 9:26pm
Quoting luSan
It is not personal.
I think that the shorts are cashing in so near to 1.3.
and the long probably will be killed...there is not particular reason -I mean, major economical decision at the moment that says that Europe is out of the mess...so I believe that the trend will hold.
I would hold tight and follow the chief advise of keeping eyes in the upper time frame, the mayor trend, and downsizing...at least this works for me...I did and I am tracking this animal from the mid 1.4
Cheers
I know Lusan...

i took personal bcz i booked my loss today on AU at 0.09596.... which was EXACT top...

so kinda angry with myself...right now not trading as a rule i dont trade till i get my head straight...

i have my doubts that trend will change that soon but hey be cautious about MM.....

V
  • #27,372
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:35pm Oct 4, 2011 9:35pm
I am tracking this animal from the mid 1.4
Cheers[/quote]


Hi Lusan!
How much down do you think you will track this beast? 1.2xxx or lower?
Mayby to .85xx? Who knows!
Jaro
  • #27,373
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:42pm Oct 4, 2011 9:42pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
I know Lusan...

i took personal bcz i booked my loss today on AU at 0.09596.... which was EXACT top...

so kinda angry with myself...right now not trading as a rule i dont trade till i get my head straight...

i have my doubts that trend will change that soon but hey be cautious about MM.....

V
I know how you feel V.!
Had those also. There will be next time! Remember the times you did good!

Remember??? ... damage is part of the battle...
  • #27,374
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:47pm Oct 4, 2011 9:47pm
Quoting Jaro
I am tracking this animal from the mid 1.4
Cheers

Hi Lusan!
How much down do you think you will track this beast? 1.2xxx or lower?
Mayby to .85xx? Who knows!
Jaro[/quote]

I do not know.
I broke my crystal ball.
However 1.25 is a hot area per the charts
but
it will depend on what the big people do.
We just need to follow them.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #27,375
  • Oct 4, 2011 10:02pm Oct 4, 2011 10:02pm
Quoting Jaro
I know how you feel V.!
Had those also. There will be next time! Remember the times you did good!

Remember??? ... damage is part of the battle...
na i am fine... love to loose fair but unfair keeps me boiling...and loosing on top makes me angry...


but trust me tomorrow is another day and i will be fine...

Thanks for checking...good time to take break as need to research for some other things....

need to see some audiophile stuff...heard chief is audiophile...

NAS server...anyone else have any ideas how to make a raid 5 nas server ..

V
  • #27,376
  • Edited 10:42pm Oct 4, 2011 10:23pm | Edited 10:42pm
Markets always trade on rumours and myths, I don't understand what there is to be upset about? What does fair and unfair have to do with anything?

I'm a bit confused myself as to why anybody would choose the USD as a safe haven but we don't make money by backing our own macro economic views (well I don't anyway!), especially if they are not in accord with everybody else's.

EDIT: I didn't mean the above to sound unkind but your ego is clearly affecting your emotions about trading right now, which is dangerous.
  • #27,377
  • Oct 4, 2011 10:59pm Oct 4, 2011 10:59pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Markets always trade on rumours and myths, I don't understand what there is to be upset about? What does fair and unfair have to do with anything?

I'm a bit confused myself as to why anybody would choose the USD as a safe haven but we don't make money by backing our own macro economic views (well I don't anyway!), especially if they are not in accord with everybody else's.

EDIT: I didn't mean the above to sound unkind but your ego is clearly affecting your emotions about trading right now, which is dangerous.
its alright Uk,

We all are learning....

i am not trading ATM....will see how i feel tomorrow...right now looking for some flac music and some speaker selection... got some vienna accoustic waltz grand....chief which one u have.....

V
  • #27,378
  • Oct 4, 2011 11:29pm Oct 4, 2011 11:29pm
Cool. Actually I'm sure you don't need advice from me. You cut the loss at 1%, which shows your self control and you are taking a break from trading today whilst you still feel angry, which shows you are aware of the dangers.

In the not so distant past I would have flipped my position in anger and lost a lot more, so I'm probably better off advising myself

EDIT: Doling out unnecessary advice with the benefit of hindsight - I think I'm the one with the ego problem!
  • #27,379
  • Oct 4, 2011 11:49pm Oct 4, 2011 11:49pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Cool. Actually I'm sure you don't need advice from me. You cut the loss at 1%, which shows your self control and you are taking a break from trading today whilst you still feel angry, which shows you are aware of the dangers.
p
In the not so distant past I would have flipped my position in anger and lost a lot more, so I'm probably better off advising myself

EDIT: Doling out unnecessary advice with the benefit of hindsight - I think I'm the one with the ego problem!
It shows ws me you are true friend


V
  • #27,380
  • Edited 2:24am Oct 5, 2011 2:12am | Edited 2:24am
I was a pig, I got slaughtered. Annoys the hell out of me when I spend so long getting back to break even and the moment I do, I put on stupidly large trades with total absence of analysis or care in the world, almost literally randomly click on either buy or sell, close my eyes and hope for the best, when the inevitable happens, I kick myself and then begin the long journey to rebuild my account back to the point where I left off from. This has been happening for me ever since I started trading and I can't figure out why that is. If I get ahead of where I started from, I make sure I trade poorly to go back to break even and if the market just doesn't do what I expect, well, I'm in the same spot of having to work my arse off to get back to break even.

I suppose this all goes back to one of fti's teachings whereby people need constant challenges and the moment they build something, they go ahead and break it straight away because it gives them something to do. Question is, it's not like I'm that well off or particularly talented at anything so not sure why I work against myself so much. Interestingly, when I say it's frustrating, that's not really true. I suppose I probably trade for the wrong reasons perhaps? Not sure, I enjoy it I think but strange mentality to have for something.

EDIT: The worst thing about trading is that it's not something that you can go in half arsed into, if you make one mistake, you can hit your account pretty hard and have no hope of saying, whoops, didn't really want to be here right now, sorry, want to go back... no room for letting go of the ball at all. Tough to do, I suppose I need to work on my discipline which I certainly have very little of.
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