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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #4,241
  • Edited 3:27pm Oct 4, 2011 1:51pm | Edited 3:27pm
Quoting Scarecru
Long US/CAD: Dly RSI up & >50
MacD up

Wkly:RSI.50 STO heading up as is MacD (up & > H2O)
Mthly: RSI> 50
DTO going up

TPP: 1.0537 (wklt 200 ema then 1.06ish is mthly 50 ema)

Risk aversion in general & commodities going down.

USD perceived safe haven status.
(FOTO: the grasshoppers are beginning to die-off)
Us pissants are winning
Longer term trade (1 month?)
Scaling into short USDCAD
Fundamentals will blow all technicals away in a few weeks

1) US dollar strength will not last forever
2) Winter season approaching fast, even when money is tight people still want to heat their homes > Oil price will go up
3) Max I see in this bull run is 1.0852, after that probably BINGO for shorts

First target 1.0400 , second 1.0250, third = parity
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,242
  • Oct 4, 2011 3:24pm Oct 4, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Longer term trade (1 - 3 months)
Scaling into short USDCAD
Fundamentals will blow all technicals away in a few weeks

1) US dollar strength will not last forever
2) Winter season approaching fast, even when money is tight people still want to heat their homes > Oil price will go up
3) Max I see in this bull run is 1.0852, after that probably BINGO for shorts

First target 1.0400 , second 1.0250, third = parity
Lol, could not have done that at a better moment. 1.5 hour in the trade and already 125 pips in the green.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,243
  • Oct 4, 2011 3:55pm Oct 4, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Lol, could not have done that at a better moment. 1.5 hour in the trade and already 125 pips in the green.
We're on the right side
Trader from Croatia
  • #4,244
  • Oct 7, 2011 1:16am Oct 7, 2011 1:16am
Quoting KillerWhale
First target 1.0400 , second 1.0250, third = parity
Took out 1/3 @ 1.0370, the rest = going for more pips
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,245
  • Edited Oct 8, 2011 12:01am Oct 7, 2011 11:53pm | Edited Oct 8, 2011 12:01am
USD/CAD – Bias (W1): Bearish + Bullish Reversal; Bias (D1): Bullish + Pull Back; Bias (Overall): Bullish + Pull Back

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=379

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=380
  • #4,246
  • Oct 8, 2011 5:19pm Oct 8, 2011 5:19pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Took out 1/3 @ 1.0370, the rest = going for more pips
Closed the rest @ 1.0250 as planned for 400 pips
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,247
  • Oct 8, 2011 6:52pm Oct 8, 2011 6:52pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Closed the rest @ 1.0250 as planned for 400 pips
congra, kw!

both usd-cad n cad-jpy just pull back from 20MA... maybe a good chance to make some good profit early next week... imho.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post5022975
  • #4,248
  • Oct 10, 2011 3:18pm Oct 10, 2011 3:18pm
my Short target on usd/cad remains at 1.0035. SL moved to +180 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad target.png Size: 50 KB
  • #4,249
  • Oct 15, 2011 4:38am Oct 15, 2011 4:38am
complete correction wave ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd cad.gif Size: 13 KB


--------------
alternative ichimoku
  • #4,250
  • Oct 15, 2011 10:55am Oct 15, 2011 10:55am
USD/CAD – Bias (W1): Bearish + Slight Uncertain; Bias (D1): Slight Uncertain; Bias (Overall): Bearish + Slight Uncertain

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=381

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=381
  • #4,251
  • Oct 22, 2011 7:33am Oct 22, 2011 7:33am
USD/CAD – Bias (W1): Bearish + Uncertain; Bias (D1): Slightly Bearish + Uncertain; Bias (Overall): Bearish + Uncertain

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=382

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=380
  • #4,252
  • Oct 23, 2011 10:12am Oct 23, 2011 10:12am
I dont get it, you are not considering news, events etc just looking at charts?

guess thats why most dont last in this more than a few months max
  • #4,253
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:21pm Oct 24, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting Hedge212
I dont get it, you are not considering news, events etc just looking at charts?

guess thats why most dont last in this more than a few months max
Hmm, well I been at this for several years and news and events are just noise, stirs price up a bit and then when it settles, tends to resume where it was going.

Trying to trade news and events is a good way to lose your account..
  • #4,254
  • Oct 29, 2011 4:12am Oct 29, 2011 4:12am
USD/CAD – Bias (Overall): Bearish + Potentially Consolidating

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=381
  • #4,255
  • Nov 5, 2011 12:21pm Nov 5, 2011 12:21pm
UCAD:LONG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad 4 hr 11005.gif Size: 37 KB
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,256
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:00am Nov 6, 2011 12:00am
USD/CAD – Bias (W1): Bearish + Potentially Ranging; Bias (D1): Bullish + Ranging; Bias (Overall): Neutral

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=381

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=381
  • #4,257
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:42pm Nov 21, 2011 5:42pm
Quoting Hedge212
I dont get it, you are not considering news, events etc just looking at charts?

guess thats why most dont last in this more than a few months max
I think Cdawg said all that needs to be said. Trading the news is a fool's game. Period. Unless your broker offers collocation, and/or your current broker has extremely low latency, and you are trading via algos, then maybe you can trade the news.

If you don't have any of the above advantages (not an exhaustive list) then you are gambling and good chance you get screwed especially if you are using stops...

As for just looking at the charts, that's what a pure chartist does. The assumption a technical analyst makes is that all news, etc is reflected in the current price. That's not to say that one doesn't look at broader macro themes and events and use this info. to help formulate a trading bias, but they enter and exit trades based only on the charts.

Maybe I'm misconstruing your invective at the end of your comment, but perhaps you should think before you type as calling people out who are pure chartists and saying (implying) that this is a reason why so many people fail at trading is not only a fallacy of apriorism, but pure rubbish and only highlights that you must be a novice or otherwise you'd know that there are many chartists out there (professional as well as amateur) not to mention traders of all stripes and disciplines. Get your head straight mate.
  • #4,258
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:53pm Nov 21, 2011 5:53pm
Quoting Vengeance
I think Cdawg said all that needs to be said. Trading the news is a fool's game. Period. Unless your broker offers collocation, and/or your current broker has extremely low latency, and you are trading via algos, then maybe you can trade the news.

If you don't have any of the above advantages (not an exhaustive list) then you are gambling and good chance you get screwed especially if you are using stops...

As for just looking at the charts, that's what a pure chartist does. The assumption a technical analyst makes is that all news, etc is reflected...

Keeping updated on the news is not the same as "trading" the news.

Staying INFORMED as a trader is pretty damn fundamental. You can be lazy and make up excuses about how it "isn't important" to do so, but the fact is simple:

The market ONLY breaks out and surges in one direction or another when there is a major economic event. PERIOD.

Being able to predict when that's going to happen is not "gambling," it's smart, safe trading.

I can predict days when the market might start going crazy and fly or plummet. I make sure NOT to set any orders beforehand, and that's exactly why I can trade high volumes and still make consistent profits, WITHOUT the fear of some "unexpected" event causing a surge that blows my account.

Because to those of us that aren't so lazy that we shrug off the NEWS, we can smell a "unexpected" economic event coming from a mile away.

And it's exactly why the REST of you have to set tight SLs with every trade, because you have no damn clue why the market is actually do what it's doing, or what might be happening the next day.

Your little technical patterns get blown apart when a major economic event or announcement occurs. Pretending that isn't true is ignorant, lazy, stupid, and arrogant.

Case-in-point:

I knew the U.S. supercommittee's failure to solve their issues today would send the USD higher against all risk currencies. I refrained from trading today.

Just looking at the technical aspect, the market was due for a retracement, but that didn't happen, because of the FUNDAMENTAL reasons.

Plain and simple, no successful investor/trader will ever say something so ridiculous as "the news doesn't matter, just looking at the charts is okay."

Laughable.
  • #4,259
  • Edited 6:25pm Nov 21, 2011 6:22pm | Edited 6:25pm
@kibescorp

Learn to read and comprehend better, please.

Firstly, Hedge was certainly implying that a lack of 'considering' the news, events, etc leads to failed trading & traders so therefore we can draw from that statement that he must be talking about trading the news, etc., and that his view is to that to be a successful trader i.e. successful at trading, you must 'consider' the news. etc., correct? Anyone else think so? Hence my reply was in regards to that.

Secondly, I wrote "That's not to say that one doesn't look at broader macro themes and events and use this info. to help formulate a trading bias, but they enter and exit trades based only on the charts."

Reading this one sentence could have saved you a lot of writing and flaming as it would have become clear that likely most chartists do pay (perhaps to differing degrees) some attention to 'news' items and events. The question is whether they use this info. for trading purposes. There are funds out there that use only technicals (equity funds, FX, bonds, etc.) so like Hedge you show your ignorance in so far as how people trade and the different types of trading.

For you, it seems you, like Hedge, believe that a trader MUST follow the news, etc. or else they will never succeed. Pick up a copy of Jack Schwager's Market Wizards or New Market Wizards sometime. For that matter, add the Turtle Traders to your list, too.

Also, you are mistakenly trying to interpret from a few paragraphs that I am also a pure chartist. I'm certain I never said that. In fact, I pay attention to charts and fundies on probably a 50/50 basis. The fundies and news/events are more for my corporate clients than my own trading, but there is certainly some flow through, regardless.

Simple stuff mate.
  • #4,260
  • Nov 21, 2011 6:33pm Nov 21, 2011 6:33pm
Obviously some people in this thread have no clue what technical analysis really is so for those people - you know who you are - here are some links that might help shed some light on these areas where your knowledge is sorely lacking:

www.mta.org
http://www.sta-uk.org/

no need for thanks, as it was not only my pleasure to help you, but my duty and obligation!
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