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Nb 10.0 counter trading system

  • #81
  • Oct 1, 2011 1:12am Oct 1, 2011 1:12am
Quoting Iknowboats
Hi Bob,

Have tried the new EAs you posted with two different brokers - one 4 digit MM and one 5 digit STP - and have run into pretty well the same problems. Could it be that I have some settings wrong? I am using it OOTB except lot size 0.05.

Some pics below to explain. Many many thanks.


Attachment

Attachment
The first chart puzzles me have no answer to it at this time. The second is accurate. If you look at the candle before it entered right at the MA line bottom of that previous candle. You have to remember that after it entered price kept pushing the candle down along with the MA and so it entered at that point. let me study this and see if I can get better entrances.
  • #82
  • Oct 1, 2011 3:38am Oct 1, 2011 3:38am
Quoting nanningbob
I am thinking of writing a booklet about recovery concepts. Now that I think 10.0 will work as a complete system I can do an in depth booklet on the subject.went ok.
this is a good idea about in depth booklet on the recovery subject !
I am personally think the subject is difficult to mastery and it was the kernel success factor for NB 10.

will expecting !
  • #83
  • Edited 4:25am Oct 1, 2011 4:14am | Edited 4:25am
Hello everybody!

Last week, while playing with various EA's I ended up with a short position on GJ taken by IO Daily EA yesterday at 119,245.

http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/9379/gjdob.jpg


When it went over 120pips against me i placed a double size 1H Reenter Sell EA to try the recovery

http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/8232/gj1hr.jpg

For now i'm stuck with it for the weekend and since my broker doesn't allow hedging i trying to figure around some other recovery methods (maybe a long position on a correlated pair).

Basically i'm aware that betting JPY to go up was a risky move, especially since Bob been talking about BOJ intervention for a while, nevertheless my bet is there and now i need to deal with it.

I'm still learning the world of FX (and of course playing on a demo only ) so any useful advice will be much appreciated.
  • #84
  • Oct 1, 2011 4:31am Oct 1, 2011 4:31am
My current DD is at 65%. Made a few hundred pips last week from recovery trades and used this profit to part close some positions. Will see what next week brings. I'm going to keep trading as per NB10 rules until I either BE or blow the account....DD for the week ranged from 35-65%
  • #85
  • Oct 1, 2011 5:03am Oct 1, 2011 5:03am
BOJ intervention likely ?

With the potential Greek default looming over the markets, the uncertainty that will follow could be too big of a financial tidal wave for the the Central bank to overcome alone. So while they would obviously love to weaken the Yen, the overall fear in the markets and risk aversion that drive the unwinding of carry trades may need to abate before they take action.

The potential for loss is too great at this point, and previous interventions including the most recent one have been largely ineffective. And they have also been somewhat half-hearted. The BOJ may however be emboldened by the action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and their target range for EUR?CHF above 1.20. This has held despite the recent accelerating problems in the Euro zone, though it could be costly in the long run if there is a Greek default.

Nevertheless, the Yen is trading near ten-year highs vs. Euro and Pound as well, so they may feel the need to do something.

Let the race to the bottom begin again!

Scoobs
  • #86
  • Oct 1, 2011 8:22am Oct 1, 2011 8:22am
Quoting blazko
Hello everybody!

Last week, while playing with various EA's I ended up with a short position on GJ taken by IO Daily EA yesterday at 119,245.

http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/9379/gjdob.jpg


When it went over 120pips against me i placed a double size 1H Reenter Sell EA to try the recovery

http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/8232/gj1hr.jpg

For now i'm stuck with it for the weekend and since my broker doesn't allow hedging i trying to figure around some other recovery methods (maybe a long position on a correlated...
I am not sure what your question is but you have the 1H EA showing which entered properly. If price moves between the two sell lines you have your BE trade and you are out if you wish.
  • #87
  • Oct 1, 2011 8:32am Oct 1, 2011 8:32am
Quoting Frodog
My current DD is at 65%. Made a few hundred pips last week from recovery trades and used this profit to part close some positions. Will see what next week brings. I'm going to keep trading as per NB10 rules until I either BE or blow the account....DD for the week ranged from 35-65%
If your lot size is about 70% of my lot size you would be about the same DD as me. Is there anyway you can reduce your lot size? or You will need to increase your account size.
  • #88
  • Oct 1, 2011 8:46am Oct 1, 2011 8:46am
Quoting scooby-doo
BOJ intervention likely ?

With the potential Greek default looming over the markets, the uncertainty that will follow could be too big of a financial tidal wave for the the Central bank to overcome alone. So while they would obviously love to weaken the Yen, the overall fear in the markets and risk aversion that drive the unwinding of carry trades may need to abate before they take action.

The potential for loss is too great at this point, and previous interventions including the most recent one have been largely ineffective. And they have...
Good to see you again. My most recent thought on the SNB action was, "QUIT USING US AS A SAFETY VALVE" I think their message got through at least for now. Traders have quit buying the CHF for that but they dont want to sell it either so now the CHF is frozen in place. I have never seen anything like this before. I also think that the behind the scenes thinking on the EURO was it was not going to fold for the near future. In other words they think the EURO will be rescued.

Most discussions have been for a default but what if they took a partial hit all across the board on these debt nations and brought them all in line of something that they could afford. For example, a 25% across the board cut in debt write off. Everyone takes a survivable hit and then life goes on carrying the new lower debt load. With that in mind the SNB action would work both long and short term. I dont know just a wild guess on my part. Anyway I think they may know something we dont know because grabbing a ton of EURO right now sure does not seem to make sense unless they feel a behind the scene package is in the works.
  • #89
  • Oct 1, 2011 9:19am Oct 1, 2011 9:19am
Quoting nanningbob
Good to see you again. My most recent thought on the SNB action was, "QUIT USING US AS A SAFETY VALVE" I think their message got through at least for now. Traders have quit buying the CHF for that but they dont want to sell it either so now the CHF is frozen in place. I have never seen anything like this before. I also think that the behind the scenes thinking on the EURO was it was not going to fold for the near future. In other words they think the EURO will be rescued.

Most discussions have been for a default but what if they took a partial...
I agree a 25% across the board would work. But I am not sure how the markets and more importantly the credit rating agencies would look upon that in regards to Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal etc. They need to borrow money at low rates otherwise its like a chicken/egg scenario. Germany/France could lend it for free (so to speak) but at what cost to their own economys.

Hopefully they will come up with a rescue package, the problem is they are causing allot of grief, especially with pension funds which are losing billions. Ofcourse in time they will recover but they are certainly dragging their feet on this.
  • #90
  • Oct 1, 2011 9:27am Oct 1, 2011 9:27am
Quoting scooby-doo
I agree a 25% across the board would work. But I am not sure how the markets and more importantly the credit rating agencies would look upon that in regards to Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal etc. They need to borrow money at low rates otherwise its like a chicken/egg scenario. Germany/France could lend it for free (so to speak) but at what cost to their own economys.

Hopefully they will come up with a rescue package, the problem is they are causing allot of grief, especially with pension funds which are losing billions. Ofcourse in time they...
So are you done with your trading contract yet and retired to some island in the Pacific?
  • #91
  • Oct 1, 2011 9:37am Oct 1, 2011 9:37am
Quoting nanningbob
So are you done with your trading contract yet and retired to some island in the Pacific?
Yes, me finished trading commercially now. Back in the UK for awhile seeing family and then I will go travelling for a couple of years. Ofcourse placing a few trades here and there along the way.
  • #92
  • Oct 1, 2011 10:21am Oct 1, 2011 10:21am
Quoting scooby-doo
Yes, me finished trading commercially now. Back in the UK for awhile seeing family and then I will go travelling for a couple of years. Ofcourse placing a few trades here and there along the way.
I have always enjoyed your fundamental analysis, so if you could post your thoughts once in a while (more often than you do) it would be appreciated. I listen you what you have to say.
  • #93
  • Oct 1, 2011 10:48am Oct 1, 2011 10:48am
Quoting nanningbob
I have always enjoyed your fundamental analysis, so if you could post your thoughts once in a while (more often than you do) it would be appreciated. I listen you what you have to say.
I second that motion. Scoobs analysis and general trading advice based on his professional experienced gave us a unique insight into the world of Forex. I think I speak for everyone who has read scoob`s posts when I say we all listen eagerly to what he has to say .

regards
  • #94
  • Edited 7:23pm Oct 1, 2011 10:56am | Edited 7:23pm
Quoting nanningbob
...I am thinking of writing a booklet about recovery concepts. Now that I think 10.0 will work as a complete system I can do an in depth booklet on the subject...
As Steve says Recovery is your legacy here in FF and maybe in retail forex trading in general. I must say after practicing it for more than 18 months, I am still learning its intricacies, so IMHO it takes time and practice to master since many people confuse it with martingale. Therefore a booklet if and when you get the time would be fantastic.

Kind Regards
  • #95
  • Oct 2, 2011 3:54am Oct 2, 2011 3:54am
Quoting Iknowboats
Hi Bob,

Have tried the new EAs you posted with two different brokers - one 4 digit MM and one 5 digit STP - and have run into pretty well the same problems. Could it be that I have some settings wrong? I am using it OOTB except lot size 0.05.

Some pics below to explain. Many many thanks.


Attachment

Attachment
Just a wild guess on the first entry, is this news time and the spreads widen with your broker??
  • #96
  • Edited 4:06pm Oct 2, 2011 12:25pm | Edited 4:06pm
Quoting nanningbob
I am not sure what your question is but you have the 1H EA showing which entered properly. If price moves between the two sell lines you have your BE trade and you are out if you wish.

My intention was to ask if this the way you would go for a recovery (apart from resisting more pips against you)?
The second thing would be: if GJ won't cooperate and im not allowed to hedge the same pair, what could be the closest (in terms of correlation) pair to take a recovery long?

Thanks for you patience

Any suggestions for this week?


EDIT:
GJ trade close with small profit at market open
  • #97
  • Oct 2, 2011 10:23pm Oct 2, 2011 10:23pm
Quoting nanningbob
Just a wild guess on the first entry, is this news time and the spreads widen with your broker??
I considered that also, but I'm coming to the conclusion that it' s a combination of high spreads on the cross pairs and also the fact that many of the trades open when I'm not watching, then the candle pushes the MA down after the fact giving the appearance of a wrong entry. This doesn't explain all of them, but I'll try to keep my eye on the entries as they happen to confirm.

Thanks again Bob
  • #98
  • Oct 2, 2011 10:31pm Oct 2, 2011 10:31pm
Hi Bob,

One other thing I've been trying to work out is the exits - seems it's having troubles closing the trades at the right spot. Any ideas?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: noexit.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #99
  • Oct 3, 2011 2:22am Oct 3, 2011 2:22am
Quoting Iknowboats
Hi Bob,

One other thing I've been trying to work out is the exits - seems it's having troubles closing the trades at the right spot. Any ideas?

Attachment
Working on that or use Steve's MPTM to secure certain amount of pips.
  • #100
  • Oct 3, 2011 2:28am Oct 3, 2011 2:28am
Quoting blazko
My intention was to ask if this the way you would go for a recovery (apart from resisting more pips against you)?
The second thing would be: if GJ won't cooperate and im not allowed to hedge the same pair, what could be the closest (in terms of correlation) pair to take a recovery long?

Thanks for you patience

Any suggestions for this week?


EDIT:
GJ trade close with small profit at market open
I am not into correlation pairs mainly because they have changed so much with the recent moves. gbp/chf up, gbp/nzd up, gbp/usd down gbp/jpy slow down trend. So many currencies are all over the board going in all sorts of directions. If I could give you a best guess it would be the eur/jpy but I wouldnt go long with the euro for anything right now.
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