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Higher low, lower high system

  • #4,981
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:12am Sep 30, 2011 2:12am
Last chart is wrong chart this is rite chart
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  • #4,982
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:16am Sep 30, 2011 2:16am
GBPUSD..1 hr chart short this as per above call..at cross..break trend line and Hoz line..Am also short dragon... much the same chart as below... not as advanced
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  • #4,983
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:54am Sep 30, 2011 2:54am
Out of all above for some good pips... DXY retracing now.. reckon its going hier so will watch for more shorts... Watching Aussie for possible lower trend line break and if so some shorts..maby..
  • #4,984
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:55am Sep 30, 2011 2:55am
AUUD picture..
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  • #4,985
  • Sep 30, 2011 5:21am Sep 30, 2011 5:21am
Cable 15 min.... Thinking shortish.. same same EUUD.. not yet thou..
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  • #4,986
  • Sep 30, 2011 6:46am Sep 30, 2011 6:46am
EUUD....15min.. got this for 30.. picture tells the story..
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  • #4,987
  • Sep 30, 2011 6:56am Sep 30, 2011 6:56am
Cable short this as per my previous call... short at hoz and crosses... just moved stop to break even..
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  • #4,988
  • Sep 30, 2011 6:16pm Sep 30, 2011 6:16pm
EUUD.. 4 hr picture... note Fozzy divergance... and my comment previous post 4977 back on how Fozzy Divgs work well..and importance of 4 hr in relation to shorter term ..
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  • #4,989
  • Oct 1, 2011 2:02am Oct 1, 2011 2:02am
Quoting sasavisnic67
Hi Vantage,
That is the bigest problem for me.
How do you decide if you get out early or wait fot full profit?
As you can see there was my entery and SL of 20 pip.
After several candles and price action that I did not like I have moved my SL to +1 pip when candel started to brake last low in this swing.
As you know by looking at the chart EU 5 min you will see that I was wrong.
Can you help with litle coment?
BR
Sasa
It is a very difficult decision.

1st of all did you think your entry was a mistake? If it was hoping it'll work out prob a mistake.

2nd I suppose when Mrs V exited her 2nd trade at a smaller loss than her stop a significant range had been done on that day that was counter trend for the eur. Have a look at D chart.

So whilst her trade was in line with the move of the day as her 5 min ma's clearly show, it was counter D chart trend.
  • #4,990
  • Oct 1, 2011 2:11am Oct 1, 2011 2:11am
Quoting sasavisnic67
Hi Vantage,
That is the bigest problem for me.
How do you decide if you get out early or wait fot full profit?
As you can see there was my entery and SL of 20 pip.
After several candles and price action that I did not like I have moved my SL to +1 pip when candel started to brake last low in this swing.
As you know by looking at the chart EU 5 min you will see that I was wrong.
Can you help with litle coment?
BR
Sasa
On your chart specifically, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08544&page=331 just look to your left. The area you show has proved to be a support area. Thats problem 1.

I haven't tried looking back so not sure what day it is but you have sold just above the round number. IF the eur had done a decent range already selling just above RN would be very risky especially when its shown to be a support level. trading around a RN always increases potential problems.

We'd like like to wait for either a retrace back up to 25 psych level and sell there or push below the RN and sell a lh move that occurs below the RN.

I hope thats clear. I'll have a look round for examples.
  • #4,991
  • Oct 1, 2011 2:16am Oct 1, 2011 2:16am
Quoting Vantage
On your chart specifically, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08544&page=331 just look to your left. The area you show has proved to be a support area. Thats problem 1.

I haven't tried looking back so not sure what day it is but you have sold just above the round number. IF the eur had done a decent range already selling just above RN would be very risky especially when its shown to be a support level. trading around a RN always increases potential problems.

We'd like like to wait for either a retrace back up to 25 psych...
Forgot to mention there was a lh about 15 candles back from your entry. So the cycle of lh, ll was broken. Specifically the last lh about 3610 fell to around 3590. Then there was a bounce back up to 3637 from around 3590.

That much higher bounce was also reason to take care.
  • #4,992
  • Oct 1, 2011 2:20am Oct 1, 2011 2:20am
Quoting danc
All so took this same set up... Dragon...Out plus30
Danc you have been posting some great charts and great trades, much appreciated.

You have 1 vouch??

Great stuff.
  • #4,993
  • Oct 1, 2011 2:25am Oct 1, 2011 2:25am
Quoting danc
EUUD.. 4 hr chart.. note diversion on Fozzy... note between week R1 and weekly PPX.... the candle patten is almost hEad and Shouldery.... I hve found in back testing the 4 hr Fozzy Div to bea very powerful/reliable signal..Also on the DXY 1 hr chatr i see a clear H/S reverse patten..indicate hoier ground for DXY... so i will be watching for short trades..
I totally agree that the higher the TF the better the divergence signal. You use that to start looking for your bias for trades as you have been kind enough to post lately.

You can trade these 2 ways. From 4 hr chart with big-ish stop, or as we do here wait for right lower TF candles to fall into place and trade the 5 min hl/lh's.

Danc I'm sure lots of people will appreciate you posting higher TF divergences with the appropriate trading bias.

Cheers, thanks again.
  • #4,994
  • Oct 1, 2011 2:49am Oct 1, 2011 2:49am
Quoting Vantage
On your chart specifically, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08544&page=331 just look to your left. The area you show has proved to be a support area. Thats problem 1.

I haven't tried looking back so not sure what day it is but you have sold just above the round number. IF the eur had done a decent range already selling just above RN would be very risky especially when its shown to be a support level. trading around a RN always increases potential problems.

We'd like like to wait for either a retrace back up to 25 psych...
OK here a similar situation.

Red ma 96 lwma still falling so 1hr 8 lwma trend is down.

Left of chart price bottoms at 3490, bounces up to 3538, a decent bounce. Falls and bounces from 3500 to 3548. So after run down we have a hl, hh to perhaps break cycle of move down.

The 12o'clock 1hr candle closed neg on 3518. Price goes sideways for a while. Then the left arrow down there is an evening star, 2b pattern, pre US fake move up and price moves back into London trend lower.

At least here you'd have about 18-28 pips to the RN/90 level to get out at either BE or small loss in need. It gives you a chance, better than selling right above the RN.

OK se we'll look to sell the retrace to next higher psych level.

The other idea we look at is for break through RN and selling the lh below the RN, see middle arrow down.

Right arrow down is right on RN but just showing as an example of US fake out. In this case 1 hr has small candle pos close hammer, as shown by red line on 5 min. Theres a clear hl that would have failed. As mentioned previously we do not generally trade small 1hr reversal candles (to London session especially where bigger pic D trend is down) in and around US open.

We rather look for hl/lh's, 2b's, evening/morning star patterns back into London trend.

A big 1hr reversal engulfing/hammer would be a different story.
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  • #4,995
  • Edited 3:47am Oct 1, 2011 3:02am | Edited 3:47am
Quoting Vantage
OK here a similar situation.

Red ma 96 lwma still falling so 1hr 8 lwma trend is down.

Left of chart price bottoms at 3490, bounces up to 3538, a decent bounce. Falls and bounces from 3500 to 3548. So after run down we have a hl, hh to perhaps break cycle of move down.

The 12o'clock 1hr candle closed neg on 3518. Price goes sideways for a while. Then the left arrow down there is an evening star, 2b pattern, pre US fake move up and price moves back into London trend lower.

At least here you'd have about 18-28 pips to the RN/90 level to get out...
These US fake out moves are typically 12-16 candles of either sideways rubbish or small moves higher (5 min chart) when selling of course.

I will admit to not having notes as to whether they form best in line with the D chart trend as well as the London move of the day.

Thats a bit of a slip on my part so you'll need to bear that in mind.
  • #4,996
  • Oct 1, 2011 6:24am Oct 1, 2011 6:24am
High high and lower low makes us to know trend clearly first of all..Dow theory explains clearly to see the trend ..

High high lower low is like pure direction meaning where the majority of the direction side is ..I would like to have this system just to find trends and use price action for trading which tells u clearly weather buyers or sellers are in the market coz you cant simply go blindly
Institutional traders are nothing but eating retailers
  • #4,997
  • Oct 2, 2011 5:16am Oct 2, 2011 5:16am
Quoting Vantage
I totally agree that the higher the TF the better the divergence signal. You use that to start looking for your bias for trades as you have been kind enough to post lately.

You can trade these 2 ways. From 4 hr chart with big-ish stop, or as we do here wait for right lower TF candles to fall into place and trade the 5 min hl/lh's.

Danc I'm sure lots of people will appreciate you posting higher TF divergences with the appropriate trading bias.

Cheers, thanks again.
V.. Thanks for yr comments.. Just trying to keep things going along here.. Its a great educational thred.. and has done wonders for my trading..Just your comments on week end only would be good for us all... when i find my self wandering.. i browes the thred to bring my self back in line..Hope the OTHER buisness goes well for u... Take Care....



PS... I reckon Cable is setting its self up to go MUCH lower.. SHORTS only the order of the day.... Just my opn of course..
  • #4,998
  • Oct 2, 2011 5:20am Oct 2, 2011 5:20am
Quoting Sim Patrick
High high and lower low makes us to know trend clearly first of all..Dow theory explains clearly to see the trend ..

High high lower low is like pure direction meaning where the majority of the direction side is ..I would like to have this system just to find trends and use price action for trading which tells u clearly weather buyers or sellers are in the market coz you cant simply go blindly
VERY interesting Comment Sim Pat... i will dwell on it....to see what revilations come to me..
  • #4,999
  • Oct 2, 2011 7:10am Oct 2, 2011 7:10am
Hi guys, I was wondering what would be the best tool to help confirming wheter a swing is a breakout out or just a double top/bottom or false breakout (bullish/bearish trap).

Do you use volume or something else, or do you await a succesful retest of the level? (which not always occurs, or which looks to fail but then succeeds afterall)
Old Habits Die Hard.
  • #5,000
  • Edited Oct 3, 2011 5:07am Oct 2, 2011 7:37am | Edited Oct 3, 2011 5:07am
Quoting Shaggy_rock
Hi guys, I was wondering what would be the best tool to help confirming wheter a swing is a breakout out or just a double top/bottom or false breakout (bullish/bearish trap).

Do you use volume or something else, or do you await a succesful retest of the level? (which not always occurs, or which looks to fail but then succeeds afterall)
breakouts happends after consolidation periods and ranges, triangles, and are easy to se,
where price have been going sideways for some time and suddenly shot up or down is the easyest to spot, where the price is just making a new swing high and lows is generally not considered a brakeout.
if there is a consolidation, or you have a triangle, or range, you know there will be a breakout sooner or later, you just have to wait
you could just use simple lines, in fx volume is useless because it's just messure tics, you wouldn't know if 1 tic is 1000000 lots or 1 lot, it will show the same on the volume indicator, in futures volume is more useful because it will messure as it should, you would wan't to see lower volume at the second top (double top and bottoms) indicating that the buyers are losing momentum, this is not part of this strategy but is just how you could use it in any strategy you could also use Bollinger bands to messure volatility which will rise in the event of a brakeout, the higher and lower bands will expand from eachother, again not part of this strategy.
in BB if the bands contract, this is what you wan't to see because you know there will be a brakeout soon
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
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