DislikedI've been following the threads involving Vantage Point and have been testing it myself unfortunately without very much success. I have been doing more backtesting than forward testing though. I have come up with something however that shows what looks like something that could be promising.
I was thinking about the 70-80% accuracy claims by vantage point and what that data is really telling us. It's saying that 70-80% of the time, it is able to predict about where the moving average will be either 2 days or 4 days into the future. Well, if this is the case, then we can use that data to tell us where the close would need to be on a given day to reach that prediction. And if we know this, then we should have a pretty clear indication of which way the market is predicted to go.
So, using the 5-day Predicted MA, at the end of the day if we take the last 4 closing prices and add them up, and then using yesterdays predicted 5 day MA, we can figure out the closing price needed to reach that prediction tomorrow using the following equation:
(Sum-of-last-4-closing-prices + X)/5 = Pred 5-day MA of Yesterday
Solve for X
If X is > the last closing price, then it is predicting a buy day, and if it is lower then it is predicting a sell day.
I backtested this on the EUR/USD using the opening price as the entry price. Using no Stop loss and closing at the close price at the end of the day, I got a result of a little over 5000 pips over 4 years. Using a stop loss of 25 pips past the PHigh or PLow I got a reasult of over 5800 pips in 4 years. I'm going to continue working on this and see if I can get better results and will post if I find any. But I thought I would share it to see what you guys think. I've attatched my results. Let me know what you guys think. Thanks.Ignored
Thanks for the post. I'll take alook at what you have done and comment here.