Billion Dollar Trader

A Billion Dollar Day:

http://www.jeffrey-investment.com/?p=1078

My estimation about the market condition in general...

short term (days): risk on
medium term (weeks): neutral
long term (months): neutral

There is so much bad news in the market and prices are climbing.. guess what happens if we see some good news.. a little firework.. short term, but still a nice chance for some decent profits.

However, I guess the medium and long term conditions are far from ready to be bullish again.

Cheerio,

Jeffrey

LONG DAX Dec11 opened at 5297
LONG NZD/USD opened at 0.78765
SHORT USD/SGD opened at 1.28122

I don't risk much at the moment. The markets are still very shaky.

I frist started with the DAX then the NZD and just recenty the SGD.

Cheers,
Jeffrey

I'm on hold, I don't increase my bets now, I want to wait until Bernanke spoke tonight. However, I think he won't shock the market again, so I still feel comfortable with my "risk on" positions.

So, the market condition in my view is:

short term (days): risk on / neutral
medium term (weeks): neutral
long term (months): neutral

The currently stongest and weakest players seem to be:

+ short and medium term bulls
~ medium term bears
- short term bears, long term bears, long term bulls

Cheerio,

Jeffrey
_________

Hmm, I think I underestimated the strength of the medium term bears and overestimated the strength of the short term bulls..

The currently strongest and weakest players seem to be...

+ medium term bears, medium term bulls
~ short term bears, short term bulls
- long term bears, long term bulls

This equals a market condition of...

short term (days): neutral
medium term (weeks): neutral
long term (months): neutral

So, we are in a very tricky market environment with a lot of uncertainty. Too explosive to channel trade, but still too weak to follow.. I would suggest driving carefully and use small position sizes.

I will keep you in the loop.

Cheerio,

Jeffrey

LONG DAX Dec11, opened at 5297
SHORT USD/CAD, opened at 1.0295

The DAX position is riskless now (because I trailed the stop loss to the entry level). And with my loonie position I risk very little. Shaky market..

My NZD and SGD positions got knocked out.

Cheers,
Jeffrey

I received an intraday signal to go LONG USD/CAD at 1.03188 and I follow it (with low risk, about 29% of my portfolio, but relative tight stop loss).

Reasoning: There is a support line backing me up and the probability that the loonie tries again to break through the 1.03690 level increased.

Stay tuned.

Cheerio,

Jeffrey

Ok, out of my short term LONG USD/CAD.. and my medium term SHORT USD/CAD and LONG DAX positions are running well again.

All because the unemployment claims were better (lower) than expected.
I haven't expected better numbers but it is good to see. Especially because they're under 400K. Was a big fight to get here.

Anyway, maybe this is a first sign that we're up for some time with less "doomy" news..

Stay tuned and follow your system.

Cheers,

Jeffrey

got kicked out of my SHORT USD/CAD position. Didn't hurt much, as I continuously decreased my risk during my current losing streak.

Furthermore, tonight I mentally rehearsed my trading plan very carefully. I always do this when I have long losing or winning streaks. This helps me to stay focused and to follow my system precisely. So, no greed or self-doubt can take over.

Currently I reduced my risk taking to just 0.1% of my trading capital per trade. As soon as my trades start being more successful again I will start increasing my risk.

This approach is a very important part of my trading plan and especially helps me in difficult as well as in euphoric times.

Have a good night and cheerio,

Jeffrey

The currently strongest and weakest market players seem to be...

+ medium term bears, medium term bulls
~ short term bears, short term bulls
- long term bears, long term bulls

This equals a market condition of...

short term (days): neutral
medium term (weeks): neutral
long term (months): neutral

So, the market environment remains fairly shaky and I hold up my conservative stance.

Furthermore, I can see that the short term bears are slightly stronger then the short term bulls at the moment. That is, we will probably stay in a downward (bearish) bias for today.

Nonetheless, I'm still long the DAX, because I'm savely in green territory there and my stop loss is trailed to the entry level. I want to keep that position because I still think it's quite possible that we will visit the 6000 level any time soon. I may be wrong, but I won't lose any principal.

Stay tuned.

Cheerio,

Jeffrey

I changed my profile, because I don't want to sell you anything. Thus, I don't see the point in being in the commercial forum.

Sincerely,

Jeffrey