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Forex Predictions by professional traders

  • #21
  • Edited 6:42pm Sep 26, 2011 6:30pm | Edited 6:42pm
Quoting frothy
Dollar Index is nearing resistance zone of 78.75-79.30 ranges; most of the asset classes especially the precious metals after the parabolic bull run sold off during whole week ; though double dip depression in the is still glooming the US economy it is oversold USD attracted investors, resulting in flight of capital from precious metals. It is also observed the funds flowed from over stretched precious metals and weaker equity markets to bonds and the Greenback.
Key equity index of the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) is expected to find support at...
Amelia Bourdeaux, UBS, Short EUR/USD at 1.3850, take profit at 1.32. S/L at 1.3950.

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  • #22
  • Sep 26, 2011 6:44pm Sep 26, 2011 6:44pm
Quoting frothy
Amelia Bourdeaux, UBS, Short EUR/USD at 1.3850, take profit at 1.32. S/L at 1.3950.

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive on Friday, made a Doji on daily chart. There were some bearish pressures earlier today in Asian session, hit 1.3408. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in range area of 1.3565 – 1.3384 after broke below the triangle suggests consolidation phase. I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase but would need a clear break and daily close below 1.3384 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.3250 and 1.3050 this week. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3480 – 1.3500. A clear break back above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 1.3565. The hammer formation seen on Thursday has very little support so far, but a clear break above 1.3565 would give another chance for a bullish pullback scenario.

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  • #23
  • Sep 26, 2011 6:53pm Sep 26, 2011 6:53pm
Quoting frothy
EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive on Friday, made a Doji on daily chart. There were some bearish pressures earlier today in Asian session, hit 1.3408. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in range area of 1.3565 – 1.3384 after broke below the triangle suggests consolidation phase. I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase but would need a clear break and daily close below 1.3384 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.3250 and 1.3050 this week. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3480 – 1.3500. A clear break back...
Related News

 

  1. <LI class=list-item sizset="43" sizcache="2">Forex: GBP/USD must break 1.5690 to extend rally <LI class=list-item sizset="44" sizcache="2">Forex: EUR/USD, bigger timeframes looking bullish –V.Bednarik
  2. Forex: EUR/USD prints bullish Hikkake amid EZ skepticism



FXstreet.com (California) - EUR/USD is at 1.3520 versus 1.3532 at the Asian open, rangebound between 1.3545/1.3510 and is likely to remain in consolidation mode according to Mike Burrowes, FX Strategist with BNZ.

This price action “shows that the European debt crisis is a real problem and we don’t have a real credible solution to how they are going to handle Greece and prevent contagion into the broader European financial system. All those problems still remain, we are just in a holding pattern,” explains Mr. Burrowes.

Monday’s session saw U.S stocks rally, giving the Dow Jones Industrial Average its biggest monthly gain (erasing the past 3 days of losses), which supported the Euro. However, risk off is still the tone throughout the markets.

“Hourly chart shows indicators losing momentum above their midlines, while price remains unable to break above the 1.3550 static resistance area. Bigger time frames are looking bullish early Asia yet unless a clear break above mentioned level, gains will remain limited,” comments Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com.

To the downside, Ms. Bednarik finds support levels at 1.3510, 1.3480 and 1.3440, while, to the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.3550, 1.3590 and 1.3625.


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Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #24
  • Sep 26, 2011 7:03pm Sep 26, 2011 7:03pm
Quoting frothy
Related News
[list][*]<LI class=list-item sizset="43" sizcache="2">Forex: GBP/USD must break 1.5690 to extend rally <LI class=list-item sizset="44" sizcache="2">Forex: EUR/USD, bigger timeframes looking bullish –V.Bednarik[*][url="http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=0828d5bb-fe01-4897-819a-1c8a49d2f9aa"]Forex:...
It looks like the US dollar index ($DX_F, $UUP) has begun to pull back after an aggressive rally over the last several weeks. If this does in fact occur, it will mean that $AUDUSD and $EURUSD should bounce, which would set-up attractive shorting opportunities in both pairs. Both AUD/USD and EUR/USD have sustained significant longer term technical damage to their charts and I view rallies as nothing more than selling opportunities. A pullback in the dollar should also mean that equities ($ES_F, $SPY) and precious metals ($GC,_F, $GLD, $SI_F, $SLV) will bounce a bit further over the coming days.

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  • #25
  • Sep 26, 2011 9:02pm Sep 26, 2011 9:02pm
even if actual predictions are wrong, i much wanna see how consistent are the sources / analysts. whether right or wrong... or in any kind of pattern. especially near major turning points.

so thanks for your work
  • #26
  • Sep 27, 2011 7:00am Sep 27, 2011 7:00am
Quoting f3y5ngz660
even if actual predictions are wrong, i much wanna see how consistent are the sources / analysts. whether right or wrong... or in any kind of pattern. especially near major turning points.

so thanks for your work

This is exactly what I am trying to do, Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it.

Major turning points can be tough to try and decipher. So if we can gain insight into who is slightly accurate around these turning points...that is just an extra edge.
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #27
  • Sep 27, 2011 7:50am Sep 27, 2011 7:50am
Quoting frothy
It looks like the US dollar index ($DX_F, $UUP) has begun to pull back after an aggressive rally over the last several weeks. If this does in fact occur, it will mean that $AUDUSD and $EURUSD should bounce, which would set-up attractive shorting opportunities...
I initially sold EURUSD at 1.4328 and trailed our stop-loss to breakeven after the pair met my initial objective, revising my soft target to 1.3416. Prices have now broken support at the bottom of a falling channel set from early May, pointing to bearish acceleration, but early signs of RSI divergence hint that a corrective bounce over the near term may come first. I will continue to hold short, looking at any such recovery as an opportunity to add to the position. My stop-loss and soft target levels will remain unchanged until a daily close below 1.3416 materializes.

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  • #28
  • Sep 27, 2011 8:02am Sep 27, 2011 8:02am
Quoting frothy
I initially sold EURUSD at 1.4328 and trailed our stop-loss to breakeven after the pair met my initial objective, revising my soft target to 1.3416. Prices have now broken support at the bottom of a falling channel set from early May, pointing to bearish acceleration, but early...
Tuesday, 27 September 2011

GBP/AUD



Looking to go long GBP/AUD at 1.5740, will add here a quarter of my position, with a stoploss at 1.57 and will reenter at 1.5630. I will exit my long at 1.5820 and will exit increments above 1.58. I feel the GBP will act as a safe haven somewhat, and the aud will continue its downtrend., giving the GBP/AUD a nice range trading/uptrending situation.

Goodluck

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  • #29
  • Edited 7:55pm Sep 27, 2011 8:28am | Edited 7:55pm
Quoting frothy
Tuesday, 27 September 2011

GBP/AUD



Looking to go long GBP/AUD at 1.5740, will add here a quarter of my position, with a stoploss at 1.57 and will reenter at 1.5630. I will exit my long at 1.5820 and will exit increments above 1.58. I feel the GBP will act as a safe haven somewhat, and the aud will continue its downtrend., giving the GBP/AUD a nice range trading/uptrending situation.

Goodluck

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ForexCycle,...
The demand for dollars is now a function of how bad the crisis appears to be. Certainly if there is deterioration in confidence about the euro zone, it is very likely that demand for dollars will increase and euro-dollar could slip further down towards the 1.30 level.

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  • #30
  • Sep 27, 2011 8:30am Sep 27, 2011 8:30am
Look into Philip Tetlock. He's an academic in Ca. who followed 286 talking heads and the 28,000 predictions they made over a 7-8 year period. His results are very interesting, and a tad bit more reliable than most.
  • #31
  • Sep 28, 2011 6:01am Sep 28, 2011 6:01am
Quoting Khalaad
What has trading (successfully) got to do with predictions???

Khalid
if you have lots of fund guys talking how its time to buy the USD you can bet they have some vested interest in the USD.

Sometimes as a trader, knowing the overall bias, is a good thing as it makes trading easier, obviously not all traders need this info or care about this, if you have a style that works id ignore all predictions and stick to what works.
  • #32
  • Edited 3:13pm Oct 2, 2011 1:13pm | Edited 3:13pm
Quoting Dopey
Philip Tetlock
thank you for this source. more than forex, for me it applies to life wisdoms

some more stuff i think re forex experts

i think their models & opinions generally expect recent trend to continue

in similar way, 'news' releases also pretty much describe and provide 'reasons' for what already happened
the sheeple subconsciously interpret this explanation as confirmation and expect trend to continue

media owned by special interests can craft & time releases to sucker sheeple opinion to create liquidity near turning points

media releases influence and distort expert/sentiment/consensus studies, even those that aim for objectivity

generally i would tend to fade public consensus if i traded it at all

individual independent analysts may have an edge and publicise accurate forecasts, but once recognized
they move into high cost secret category or disappear altogether

anyways, i just complicate the obvious

edit: rainy sunday afternoon with philip tetlock's "Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs"
http://download.fora.tv/rss_media/Lo...26-tetlock.mp3
video: http://fora.tv/2007/01/26/Why_Foxes_...Than_Hedgehogs
  • #33
  • Last Post: Oct 2, 2011 1:21pm Oct 2, 2011 1:21pm
some stuff i messed around with while back
dxy vs google trends 'dollar crash'
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