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14 Year Old Forex Trader's Lessons

  • #581
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:10pm Sep 25, 2011 7:10pm
Quoting bumapatria
The supply level that held.
I don't trust that level. looks too much like an inverse H/S pattern to me.

I would feel more comfy taking a short at channel resistance. But then again I am looking more longer term. Intraweek vs intraday.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #582
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:11pm Sep 25, 2011 7:11pm
Trendline break? Trendline bounce?

ADD: broken 2nd TL
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  • #583
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:12pm Sep 25, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I don't trust that level. looks too much like an inverse H/S pattern to me.

I would feel more comfy taking a short at channel resistance. But then again I am looking more longer term. Intraweek vs intraday.
Ah okay piptrapper!

You'll be one or our intraday guys here.

Im just shorting this range right now.

Playing it on the safe side as well with BE stop losss.
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  • #584
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:15pm Sep 25, 2011 7:15pm
Quoting Pegasus54
True gaps are only in the stock market. If we see a gap in forex it is usually due to your brokers.With that being said, since thousands of retail traders see a physical gap on their chart even tho it isnt a true gap, they trade it and the imaginary gap is usually filled.
Hm... strange huh? I am aware it being from brokers. The Forex is a 24H market.

Okay, thanks
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  • #585
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:16pm Sep 25, 2011 7:16pm
Quoting Pegasus54
...since thousands of retail traders see a physical gap on their chart even tho it isnt a true gap, they trade it and the imaginary gap is usually filled.
After a big enough move during off-market hours, even if all the off-market data was present on the charts, just by virtue of the fact that such a move would see a correction, the pseudo-gap would eventually be filled anyway.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #586
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:20pm Sep 25, 2011 7:20pm
last TL on m5. if this is broken, Im predicting broken bullish pressure, and we are into some ranging if we're going to reach one of the lows again. I honestly usually don't scalp, but we must adapt to current conditions. By the looks of me, its going to range to accumulate and its a monday.
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  • #587
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:23pm Sep 25, 2011 7:23pm
Quoting bumapatria
Trendline break? Trendline bounce?

ADD: broken 2nd TL
Possible bounce but definite break.
With reference to the chart on my previous post, the purple MA line is a 144ema. That currently prices at 1.3605. If we get a bounce upwards, that and the channel resistance are the target areas before a break downwards.

ADD: Chart
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  • #588
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:23pm Sep 25, 2011 7:23pm
retail forex is only 5% of market size, forex market is mostly traded interbank



weekend gap is not visible and this in itself raise some questions, has selling pressure slowed for now? as i said, China, US have pressured europe to find a solution, they are coming up with a bail out plan of 1.7 trillion, the key player is Germany here.

as of now price is still trading above daily open, in any case donwside pressure seems to be diminishing, but we cannot predict price.

The difference between the FED and the ECB is that the FED holds a monopoly in money creation, the US can never default, due to this fact, one must read modern monetary policy.

the ECB cannot act alone in monetary policy, european countries do have miss allocation of resources due to trade imbalances,

in a nutshell the EURO acts like GOLD
the USD is purely fiat, elastic vehicle of exchange.

the danger with deficits in USA is not that we cannot fund them or people wont let us borrow, we really dont need to borrow we simply create money by deficit spending and fractional reserve banking, taxation is the glue that soaks up liquidity from the system. the problem with the deficit is INFLATION.

vs EUROPE that needs FUNDING. this is the reason why europe is in trouble, as it does not have a central Bank that can implement monetary policies.



BUMA check out the average true range over 24hrs on the hourly chart, it will give you an estimate of how many pips the EURO generaly travels,
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #589
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:28pm Sep 25, 2011 7:28pm
Quoting the redlion
retail forex is only 5% of market size, forex market is mostly traded interbank



weekend gap is not visible and this in itself raise some questions, has selling pressure slowed for now? as i said, China, US have pressured europe to find a solution, they are coming up with a bail out plan of 1.7 trillion, the key player is Germany here.

as of now price is still trading above daily open, in any case donwside pressure seems to be diminishing, but we cannot predict price.

The difference between the FED and the ECB is that the FED holds a monopoly...

Big thanks to redlion.

FED can make all the money they would? and ECB can't. thanks for telling us red.

About the ATR, im seeing 50 pips or so.

ADD: so that's the average kind of 'range' every hourly candle correct me if im wrong/

ADD: i have heard of Germany's efforts to help with the funding, but where are they going to get that money from? Bonds buying?

ADD: European doesn't have central bank that implement monetary policies? isn't ECB European central bank?
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  • #590
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:34pm Sep 25, 2011 7:34pm
Quoting bumapatria
...
About the ATR, im seeing 50 pips or so.

ADD: so that's the average kind of 'range' every hourly candle correct me if im wrong/
If your ATR indicator is set to 14 periods and you are in the H1 chart, then that would be the average range of the last 14 hours.

EDIT: I mean the last 14 hourly candles on your chart
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #591
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:35pm Sep 25, 2011 7:35pm
I closed one of my short term short. I need to analyses the market. My long term short is still open tho
  • #592
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:36pm Sep 25, 2011 7:36pm
some one asked me about Value At Risk.

it has to do with money management with position sizing and monetary value for each pip traveled. yes it is true R:R is always 1:1, one always knows the risk but never the reward.

however, not only do you have to consider the probabilities of loss, but also the unexpected, can you account sustain a spike of +100 pips, this would be worse case scenario.

and if you mean to tell me a SL will take care of that i will call you naive. ask your broker if SL is guaranteed or BEST FILL, best fill can mean slipage, and your order can be executed 200 pips from where you think it should be, depending on market conditions, ask those that where short the CHF when the SNB intervened.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #593
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:36pm Sep 25, 2011 7:36pm
Quoting PipTrapper
If your ATR indicator is set to 14 periods and you are in the H1 chart, then that would be the average range of the last 14 hours.
Ah yes the periods.
okay piptrapper. thank you.

EU testing its lows now.

What i have noticed is for anyone who likes correlation,
im seeing close ties in oil and dow jones. When dow goes up euro goes up. And vice versa.
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  • #594
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:37pm Sep 25, 2011 7:37pm
If there was any legitimacy to the off-market spike downwards to 1.3325, then it is possible that is where it is heading.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #595
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:38pm Sep 25, 2011 7:38pm
Quoting the redlion
some one asked me about Value At Risk.

it has to do with money management with position sizing and monetary value for each pip traveled. yes it is true R:R is always 1:1, one always knows the risk but never the reward.

however, not only do you have to consider the probabilities of loss, but also the unexpected, can you account sustain a spike of +100 pips, this would be worse case scenario.

and if you mean to tell me a SL will take care of that i will call you naive. ask your broker if SL is guaranteed or BEST FILL, best fill can mean slipage,...
i have heard of some major slippage. So how does slippage happen?
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  • #596
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:40pm Sep 25, 2011 7:40pm
Quoting the redlion
...and if you mean to tell me a SL will take care of that i will call you naive. ask your broker if SL is guaranteed or BEST FILL, best fill can mean slipage, and your order can be executed 200 pips from where you think it should be, depending on market conditions, ask those that where short the CHF when the SNB intervened.
Very true. I got burned by that one when Bear Stearns failed.
Bad memory still haunts me. Eek!!!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #597
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:41pm Sep 25, 2011 7:41pm
Quoting bumapatria
i have heard of some major slippage. So how does slippage happen?
the market travels too fast for your broker to be willing to deal, at current price if he thinks his risk is to high. so he will requote or simply give you best fill. (liquidity is being consumed too fast)


yes buma equities have correlation with the euro, as it means risk apetite

gold, with chf, aud, oil with cad

gbp,aud,eur, should move in unison
chf,jpy,cad should move the same.

has to do with the USD value.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #598
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:43pm Sep 25, 2011 7:43pm
Just a heads up to position traders or any swing traders here:

Price has crossed over the 50% fibonacci retracement level and right now is 61.8% retracement.

what i have noticed from eye-watering sessions of only using fibonacci, is that once it crosses the 50% level, price has made a decision to reach the 100% low or high again.

1.1868 is that low.

That is what is expected. what can be unexpected? euro to gain stability and reach its more stable levels again.

ADD: Prediction is done on a monthly chart.
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  • #599
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:46pm Sep 25, 2011 7:46pm
Quoting the redlion
the market travels too fast for your broker to be willing to deal, at current price if he thinks his risk is to high. so he will requote or simply give you best fill. (liquidity is being consumed too fast)


yes buma equities have correlation with the euro, as it means risk apetite

gold, with chf, aud, oil with cad

gbp,aud,eur, should move in unison
chf,jpy,cad should move the same.

has to do with the USD value.
Risk-averse.
GBPP have been dropping evver since.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #600
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:48pm Sep 25, 2011 7:48pm
Ranging market now.
Broken TL's.

To be on the safe side i am going to liquidate my shorts. As redlion says prepare for the worst. Its some asian open, low liquidity, a few handshakes with a few millionaires, they can move price one way.
make a bear trap here and there, and whatdya know.

dont mind the ichimoku, my trading chart is the other one. this is supposed to be on monthly technical predictions.

Add: big bearish candle on h1. well. thats just all the m5, m1 action piled on an hour.. been a bearish hour.
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